The Annual Bubble Discussion Thread - 2021 Version

[sutomcat]

Doe that mean Colgate would not get an at-large if they lose in conference tournament?

If they don’t win the Patriot, they have no chance to get an at large bid. They have only played 3 teams all season. Army, Holy Cross and Boston University. Holy Cross and Boston U are really bad. Army is decent.

And they even lost a game to Army.

I think they have a decent team this year but playing such a pathetic schedule, I can’t see anyone seriously considering them as an at large.

Syracuse is now on 10 brackets on the bracketmatrix site. I think that number will double as people react to the results from the last couple of days.

 

[721Comstock]

We are in the last 4 out now on the Matrix.

Team we should be rooting against:

Sparty
Boise State
Drake
xavier
Wichita State
Seton Hall
Utah State
St Louis
SMU
Duke

Root against Duke, Sparty, and Seton Hall?

I think we can swing that!!!

 

[Bball44]

If they don’t win the Patriot, they have no chance to get an at large bid. They have only played 3 teams all season. Army, Holy Cross and Boston University. Holy Cross and Boston U are really bad. Army is decent.

And they even lost a game to Army.

I think they have a decent team this year but playing such a pathetic schedule, I can’t see anyone seriously considering them as an at large.

Then it seems really strange there are ranked 9th in NET.

 

[Orangezoo]

Drake should be win the tourney or go home. Duke lost to Miami and overall, besides beating us wouldn't get a sniff if not for name recognition at 11-10. Boise ain't making it as I see it. Louisville is arguable as being solidly in. I am sticking with one win locks us into the first four and two gets us on the 10 line vs play in .

 

[Knicks411]

I dont think we can just look at records with the normal context this year. If Rutgers loses their last two and finishes 13-12, I'm not saying they're a lock, I wouldn't really know enough to say, but

1) The big ten is great this year, and
2) They've would've played 21 of their 25 games against the Big 10.

They played 4 non conf games; in a normal year they'd be closer to 10 or 11. If you give them another 6 or 7 non conf games (they played a really easy non con last year) and they go 5-2 or something, that 13-12 becomes 18-13 without really improving the resume at all.

 

[Orangezoo]

I dont think we can just look at records with the normal context this year. If Rutgers loses their last two and finishes 13-12, I'm not saying they're a lock, I wouldn't really know enough to say, but

1) The big ten is great this year, and
2) They've would've played 21 of their 25 games against the Big 10.

They played 4 non conf games; in a normal year they'd be closer to 10 or 11. If you give them another 6 or 7 non conf games (they played a really easy non con last year) and they go 5-2 or something, that 13-12 becomes 18-13 without really improving the resume at all.

Big Ten will get the benefit of the doubt this year as they should even with weak records. The Big East, A10 and a couple fellow ACC teams ahead of us are those that are getting a bit too much credit for very little to show.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I dont think we can just look at records with the normal context this year. If Rutgers loses their last two and finishes 13-12, I'm not saying they're a lock, I wouldn't really know enough to say, but

1) The big ten is great this year, and
2) They've would've played 21 of their 25 games against the Big 10.

They played 4 non conf games; in a normal year they'd be closer to 10 or 11. If you give them another 6 or 7 non conf games (they played a really easy non con last year) and they go 5-2 or something, that 13-12 becomes 18-13 without really improving the resume at all.

With the lack of non-conference games the Big Ten is living off dominating the ACC in the ACC/BIG 10 challenge.

 

[nycfan]

For SU its simple.

Win 2 games 100% in
Win 1 game need some help.
Lose and we are out.

Except right in the middle of these "simple" scenarios (which I do agree with), the middle one might be the most likely outcome and also the most complicated (biggest unknown). The other day I asked if we win one is it a 50/50 chance we get in, and the people that responded thought it could be a bit high. Hopefully we get a lot of help today, and increase the odds over 50% for that particular scenario.

 

[Knicks411]

With the lack of non-conference games the Big Ten is living off dominating the ACC in the ACC/BIG 10 challenge.

You're right, I'm probably a little too convinced the B10 is so dominant. I do think they are the best league this year, but I probably shouldn't be as convinced of that as I would be in a normal year

 

[Alsacs]

With the lack of non-conference games the Big Ten is living off dominating the ACC in the ACC/BIG 10 challenge.

The ACC-Big Ten challenge ended 6-5 Big Ten.
With Michigan State at Virginia cancelled.

I don’t think the Big Ten dominated that it’s just the teams at the top are really good and makes their middle appear stronger when they beat them.

 

[upperdeck]

Then it seems really strange there are ranked 9th in NET.

they have so many road wins it adds up

 

[blust2i3d4]

The ACC-Big Ten challenge ended 6-5 Big Ten.
With Michigan State at Virginia cancelled.

I don’t think the Big Ten dominated that it’s just the teams at the top are really good and makes their middle appear stronger when they beat them.

Also Notre Dame 0-3 against Big Ten makes ACC look bad.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The ACC-Big Ten challenge ended 6-5 Big Ten.
With Michigan State at Virginia cancelled.

I don’t think the Big Ten dominated that it’s just the teams at the top are really good and makes their middle appear stronger when they beat them.

Yeah I didn’t explain myself well. Their metrics were helped tremendously by their top teams dominating the ACC. I know people are poo pooing Wisconsin, but they beat Louisville by 40. Purdue, Ohio State, and Illinois won their games as well. Maryland beat Clemson by 16.

 

[bballbeadle]

So, if Duke wins tonight, we will play them at noon? And if Carolina wins, we’ll go up to a #7?

 

[Alsacs]

So, if Duke wins tonight, we will play them at noon? And if Carolina wins, we’ll go up to a #7?

If Clemson wins we are locked into the 8 seed before Duke-UNC tips off.
Then if UNC wins we would play NC State.
If Duke won we would play them.

If Clemson loses we can become the 7 if Duke beat UNC.

 

[20plus]

So, if Duke wins tonight, we will play them at noon? And if Carolina wins, we’ll go up to a #7?

We can get the 7 if Clemson AND UNC both lose

Assuming Clemson wins...

The result of Duke/UNC.

If Duke wins, Cuse plays Duke.

If UNC wins, Cuse plays NC State.

So we would like Pittsburgh and UNC for optimum seed placement and match up

 

[Alsacs]

We can get the 7 if Clemson AND UNC both lose

Assuming Clemson wins...

The result of Duke/UNC.

If Duke wins, Cuse plays Duke.

If UNC wins, Cuse plays NC State.

So we would like Pittsburgh and UNC for optimum seed placement and match up

I actually want the 8 seed and NC State.

The 7 gets us Virginia second game. I don’t think we would beat Virginia.
Too well coached.

Florida State is a wildcard. I think we could beat more likely than Virginia.

 

[Janner]

So IF we win the first game we would be playing either FSU or Virginia no matter what?

 

[Consigliere]

If they don’t win the Patriot, they have no chance to get an at large bid. They have only played 3 teams all season. Army, Holy Cross and Boston University. Holy Cross and Boston U are really bad. Army is decent.

And they even lost a game to Army.

I think they have a decent team this year but playing such a pathetic schedule, I can’t see anyone seriously considering them as an at large.

Syracuse is now on 10 brackets on the bracketmatrix site. I think that number will double as people react to the results from the last couple of days.

Colgate has 0 Q1 games, is 2-0 in Q2 (2 wins at Army NET 118). Honestly cannot imagine the algorithm that has their NET so high.

 

[Consigliere]

We can get the 7 if Clemson AND UNC both lose

Assuming Clemson wins...

The result of Duke/UNC.

If Duke wins, Cuse plays Duke.

If UNC wins, Cuse plays NC State.

So we would like Pittsburgh and UNC for optimum seed placement and match up

Except if Clemson wins and wins a couple in Greensboro that probably elevates our win over them to a Q1. And a third win over NC State does little for our resume other than give us a shot as a heavy underdog against FSU. A win over Duke neutralizes our loss to them and since the win would be neutral court and the loss on their court puts us solidly ahead of them on the bubble.

For purposes of the ACC Tournament I agree with you. And if we were already in the Dance I'd be all in. For purposes of our NCAA bubble resume I do a full 180..

 

[Knicks411]

Colgate has 0 Q1 games, is 2-0 in Q2 (2 wins at Army NET 118). Honestly cannot imagine the algorithm that has their NET so high.

They're 93 at Ken Pom. We don't have a lot of history with the NET rankings, but I have to imagine that is the largest discrepancy on record.

This is the first time I've seen their schedule; it's hilarious. They've played 12 games

Army 4x
BU 4x
Holy Cross 4x

Literally, that's it. They've played 3 teams all year.

 

[sutomcat]

Yeah I didn’t explain myself well. Their metrics were helped tremendously by their top teams dominating the ACC. I know people are poo pooing Wisconsin, but they beat Louisville by 40. Purdue, Ohio State, and Illinois won their games as well. Maryland beat Clemson by 16.

You can’t just look at the Wisky-UL score in a vacuum. UL hadn’t played in 18 days and was short handed, missing 4 players, including their 2 best.

If the B1G is considered the best conference, you have to give credit to the ACC for being very close to it. At least If you believe in head to head results.

 

[NineOneSeven]

Big ten and big 12 are both much better than the acc this year, in terms of rankings and also my eyes.

 

[pearl31]

something else to consider as the acc tourney unfolds...
conceivably all 3 of VaTech, UNC, and Clemson could move up into the top 30 of the NET if they advance (Clemson, unc close right now, VT in the 40s) - making those official q1 wins for us...

 

[upperdeck]

Big ten and big 12 are both much better than the acc this year, in terms of rankings and also my eyes.

teams that can win if its only about playing well

B10 Mich/ILL
ACC FSu/Virg
B12 Baylor
Gonz

everyone else is just a crap shoot.. They all have their nights, all very athletic but helter skelter styles.

WV for the life of me dont get how they have the record they do.. Tex/Ok is the same team in different Unis.. run around and hope the game is out of control.

Iowa has not looked like the same team in 6-7 weeks.. But they took it to OSU after getting blown out by Mich

B12 is better than B10 to me though.