The class of 2022 is very very important for our team

[sutomcat]

You joke about it, but every one of those players is probably 50/50 at best to return. Could all of them leave? Not probable, but crazier things have happened.

No, I think you took crazy to a place it has never been before.

Well done Franco!

 

[SU94]

You joke about it, but every one of those players is probably 50/50 at best to return. Could all of them leave? Not probable, but crazier things have happened.

Let's say that all eight are 50-50, that means there is a 1/256 chance we lose all eight.
I am gonna sleep alright tonight.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Let's say that all eight are 50-50, that means there is a 1/256 chance we lose all eight.
I am gonna sleep alright tonight.

Doesn't work that way. A few of these guys are more like 90/10 to leave. I'm saying the best case is 50/50 for guys like Joe/Bras/etc. I'll assign probabilities and let you work out the math.

 

[SU94]

Doesn't work that way. A few of these guys are more like 90/10 to leave. I'm saying the best case is 50/50 for guys like Joe/Bras/etc. I'll assign probabilities and let you work out the math.

Okay. Fair statement ^^^.

Let's say all 8 players are 75% certain to leave. Some higher, some lower, but 75% for kicks and giggles.

They odds that all eight depart, as you stated initially is roughly 1% (6561/65536).

I was sleeping well before your "very possible" post, now I am gonna sleep even better tonight.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Okay. Fair statement ^^^.

Let's say all 8 players are 75% certain to leave. Some higher, some lower, but 75% for kicks and giggles.

They odds that all eight depart, as you stated initially is roughly 1% (6561/65536).

I was sleeping well before your "very possible" post, now I am gonna sleep even better tonight.

If there was a 1 in 100 chance your child would inherit some scary genetic condition, would you have have another child and just hope for the best?

Knowing our luck, 1% is not impossible at all. And those odds go up significantly if, say, 6 of the 8 depart which would still devastate the roster.

 

[EastCoast2]

Okay. Fair statement ^^^.

Let's say all 8 players are 75% certain to leave. Some higher, some lower, but 75% for kicks and giggles.

They odds that all eight depart, as you stated initially is roughly 1% (6561/65536).

I was sleeping well before your "very possible" post, now I am gonna sleep even better tonight.

False. It’s 10%. I think you calculated (0.75x0.75)^8 instead of 0.75^8. All of this assumes identical and independently distributed random variables, which isn’t the case. Point taken for this simple example, however.

 

[chugg21]

You joke about it, but every one of those players is probably 50/50 at best to return. Could all of them leave? Not probable, but crazier things have happened.

I don't actually think that crazier things HAVE happened.

 

[SU94]

False. It’s 10%. I think you calculated (0.75x0.75)^8 instead of 0.75^8. All of this assumes identical and independently distributed random variables, which isn’t the case. Point taken for this simple example, however.

You're correct. My preliminary numbers were/are accurate, but not my end number. Roughly 10%. I'll sleep a little less easier than at 1%.

 

[orangefog]

Ok, so the current dream class is Copeland, Taylor, Rodgers, BHH and Clingan/Mulvey. Would be a great class...but wait, now Elijah Fisher is considering reclassing to 2022. And, we are one of two schools he is currently talking about. Where does he fit (if we were to be so lucky)? I like all of these guys, but Fisher is GREAT. I think he best fits in as a SG. I would hate to miss out on either Taylor or Rodgers, because they are both high level multi year contributors. Fisher is one and done. This is why I love recruiting, because imagining how all the pieces fit together is so much fun.

 

[FrancoPizza]

I don't actually think that crazier things HAVE happened.

Didn't Pitt lose 20 guys last year?

 

[Cusefan0307]

We are only a player(Elite ) or 2(Center) away. This board slightly exaggerates how bad our talent is. In doing research theres an average of 2 top 50 players on top 25 teams and 1.5 on Top 25 teams. The average top 25 team has less than 4 top 100 players in general. Duke and UK were outliers. This year, along with UNC they all stink and they have the same amount of top 50 players as the top 10. The best TEAMS aren't recruiting the best talent the past couple of seasons.

 

[chugg21]

We are only a player(Elite ) or 2(Center) away. This board slightly exaggerates how bad our talent is. In doing research theres an average of 2 top 50 players on top 25 teams and 1.5 on Top 25 teams. The average top 25 team has less than 4 top 100 players in general. Duke and UK were outliers. This year, along with UNC they all stink and they have the same amount of top 50 players as the top 10. The best TEAMS aren't recruiting the best talent the past couple of years.

I did the research before on our history. When we were rolling we were bringing in 1 top 25ish guy with 1 more top 50 and then a top 100 every year. Thats our sweet spot.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I did the research before on our history. When we were rolling we were bringing in 1 top 25ish guy with 1 more top 50 and then a top 100 every year. Thats our sweet spot.

That’s right in line with the average top 25 team. There’s 16 teams in the KenPom top 25 this season that have no players ranked in the top 25. 9 have no players ranked in the top 50.

The sport is changing(some say for the worse). The best high school players have not been winning as much the past 5 seasons or so. I suspect that’s due to a lack of veteran continuity to go with the elite talent.

 

[OrangeFair44]

It's very possible this could be our roster next year, which would be tragic and hilarious, but would simplify the math for JB's rotation:

Edit: added probability to leave after this season.

Centers
Frank Ansalem Soph (10%)
Jessie Edwards- Junior (25% - would be much higher if Marek didn't get in foul trouble recently)

Forwards
Benny Williams- Freshman (10% G-league comes calling)

Guards
Buddy Boeheim Senior (0.0%)
Kadary Richmond Soph (5% - might still be irked by JGIII starting over him)

Leaving:
Alan Griffin - Europe (60% - I think he viewed this year as a pro audition)
Quincy Guerrier- Europe (90% - he's already old and needs to start earning $)
Marek - Europe (90% - not much more for him to accomplish here)
Joe Girard - Transfer to midmajor or Ivy (50% - sees handwriting on the wall)
Jon Bol Ajok- Transfer (50% - he'll always be a backup to the backup here)
Robert Braswell - Transfer (50% - he almost left last year)
Woody Newton- Transfer (80% - JB's doghouse)
Sid - graduate/rehab/Europe? (80% - needs to look for a career that doesn't require knees)

I'm not sure i see Girard transferring. He's averaging 27 mins/game on season and 22 in the last 5 despite Richmond's notable play. It doesn't look like they're bringing anyone in either to play guard in the 21 class (I know things are always pretty fluid in the offseason for transfers).

Honest question, you think JB will bring in another guard even if JG3 is not going anywhere? I just have my doubts.

 

[Sherman20]

It's very possible this could be our roster next year, which would be tragic and hilarious, but would simplify the math for JB's rotation:

Edit: added probability to leave after this season.

Centers
Frank Ansalem Soph (10%)
Jessie Edwards- Junior (25% - would be much higher if Marek didn't get in foul trouble recently)

Forwards
Benny Williams- Freshman (10% G-league comes calling)

Guards
Buddy Boeheim Senior (0.0%)
Kadary Richmond Soph (5% - might still be irked by JGIII starting over him)

Leaving:
Alan Griffin - Europe (60% - I think he viewed this year as a pro audition)
Quincy Guerrier- Europe (90% - he's already old and needs to start earning $)
Marek - Europe (90% - not much more for him to accomplish here)
Joe Girard - Transfer to midmajor or Ivy (50% - sees handwriting on the wall)
Jon Bol Ajok- Transfer (50% - he'll always be a backup to the backup here)
Robert Braswell - Transfer (50% - he almost left last year)
Woody Newton- Transfer (80% - JB's doghouse)
Sid - graduate/rehab/Europe? (80% - needs to look for a career that doesn't require knees)

This is laughable.

 

[Sherman20]

Okay. Fair statement ^^^.

Let's say all 8 players are 75% certain to leave. Some higher, some lower, but 75% for kicks and giggles.

They odds that all eight depart, as you stated initially is roughly 1% (6561/65536).

I was sleeping well before your "very possible" post, now I am gonna sleep even better tonight.

don't waste your time trying to engage with his idiotic post.

 

[Sherman20]

Ok, so the current dream class is Copeland, Taylor, Rodgers, BHH and Clingan/Mulvey. Would be a great class...but wait, now Elijah Fisher is considering reclassing to 2022. And, we are one of two schools he is currently talking about. Where does he fit (if we were to be so lucky)? I like all of these guys, but Fisher is GREAT. I think he best fits in as a SG. I would hate to miss out on either Taylor or Rodgers, because they are both high level multi year contributors. Fisher is one and done. This is why I love recruiting, because imagining how all the pieces fit together is so much fun.

Rodgers probably isn’t coming here, if we’re being realistic about it.

 

[orangefog]

Rodgers probably isn’t coming here, if we’re being realistic about it.

I thought we were leading for him?

 

[chugg21]

It's really gross that Edwards may burn his Soph season with 48 total mins played. Thank god for Covid rules and being allowed an extra year if he wants.

2 weeks later and that total has doubled!

 

[CousCuse]

All these players are going to transfer to greener pastures and get big roles and PT. How'd that work out for Carey, Goodine and Wash?

 

[Alsacs]

S

All these players are going to transfer to greener pastures and get big roles and PT. How'd that work out for Carey, Goodine and Wash?

So Griffin and Guerrier would be leaving for greener pastures as they would become professional basketball players.
That is the definition of greener pastures they would get paid to play.

We aren’t going to lose everybody.
Woody Newton would be a terrible loss.

Ansalem is going nowhere.

JBA would be leaving because he is a project not for greener pastures.

Edwards isn’t leaving.

Can stop with routine. Your opinions are your opinions. You bring little support to statements that aren’t your opinion.

You are a fanboy. That is fine. I want the program to be better. I am not like some in this thread that go over the line at times to takes shots. My criticisms are on point.

 

[Orangezoo]

S

So Griffin and Guerrier would be leaving for greener pastures as they would become professional basketball players.
That is the definition of greener pastures they would get paid to play.

We aren’t going to lose everybody.
Woody Newton would be a terrible loss.

Ansalem is going nowhere.

JBA would be leaving because he is a project not for greener pastures.

Edwards isn’t leaving.

Can stop with routine. Your opinions are your opinions. You bring little support to statements that aren’t your opinion.

You are a fanboy. That is fine. I want the program to be better. I am not like some in this thread that go over the line at times to takes shots. My criticisms are on point.

JBA might be one of the happiest kids I've ever seen on an SU team. He expresses zero negativity in respect to his limited playing time.

Woody became a feature guy his last prep year. He showed out in a few games. Given his success after a great last year of prep I imagine he sees himself as a featured high volume player. It would hurt to lose him but with Benny coming in I think Woody could be looking to see what Griff and Quincy have in mind first.

Marek has European connections going back to recruitment. I don't know if he wants an extra year or not. Same as BS. My guess is both leave but would have zero surprise if one left one stayed.

QG I think leaves. The kid has been banged up. I don't know his personality but the latest Athletic article frames up a kid who is quite high on himself and focused on himself which is in line with some of what JB hinted at around defense in the presser.

AG has been put in the same spot he was at Illinois. He is a chucker who also is a good teammate and works his tail off. He doesn't do well as a forward in the zone some games. He has struggled to improve his game. He needs more work in the off-season. Its hard to tell if maybe he has a lower ceiling than thought. I could see him leaving given the lack of change in his role. I commend the kid for sticking with and being a great teammate.

Joe gives it one more year. Takes the whole summer and dedicates it to doing something he has never had to do which is add elements to his game and improve his ability to be a scorer at this level. I could see him bailing, but then again it's so hard for a kid who has seen only success in waves to hit a brick wall that he can't shoot over.

Braswell is perfectly situated to have a Southerland like finish to his career here. I think he stays. You see those flashes where if he can become a consistent 3 pt threat alongside his defense he has a big role to play off the bench.

So Marek, Bourama , Quincy and Griffin are more than likely your losses. All four of which shouldn't shock anyone when you follow everything. If we keep anyone else besides Bourama, I see Woody probably sliding in here so make it four guys total and thus a net loss of 3 with Benny coming in. Bring in one grad Txfr and we should be ok even without the full allotment used.

 

[Orangezoo]

Let me add that as it pertains to 2022- this was always going to be a critical class given the potential size and that it's the class that may be the first of two bridges (2023) to post Boeheim if he hangs them up after Buddy's last year.

 

[50YRsofCuse]

Let me add that as it pertains to 2022- this was always going to be a critical class given the potential size and that it's the class that may be the first of two bridges (2023) to post Boeheim if he hangs them up after Buddy's last year.

Reports are out there saying Buddy will come back for a fifth year.

 

[Alsacs]

Let me add that as it pertains to 2022- this was always going to be a critical class given the potential size and that it's the class that may be the first of two bridges (2023) to post Boeheim if he hangs them up after Buddy's last year.

The 2021 class was a terrible job overall. Benny is a tremendous recruit but not getting a guard or freaking offers towards guards are a joke.

I don’t have faith in this 2022 class being anything special after we lost Gayle but I hope I am wrong.

Gayle is a kid with Hop on staff I don’t think we lose.

I don’t like our playing style of short rotations for recruiting good players while we have incumbents.

If Buddy was recruited to be the starting SG for 30 MPG+ for 3 seasons that is a joke by the staff. Goodine left because he wasn’t going to get minutes here. Now he isn’t getting minutes in Providence this season but I don’t think he will be parked on the bench next year.

I hope the 2022 class is 4 deep with multiple guards.