The Coyle decision

[GoSU96]

I am perfectly willing to stipulate that I might be wrong on any or all of this BUT;

1. We are already on a many year skein of trying to get a coach that will get us to a level we want to be. I just don't think you get unlimited chances without each failure or misfire making it harder and harder to get back to The MAC Years. I checked the Indiana football history. I knew that Lee Corso was the coach there in the 1970's. If you look at what they have done since 1995, it's pretty much been a new coach every four years. I said above we could be Indiana IF we had a few more failures. HECK, after looking at the record over the past 15-20 years, I now think we ARE Indiana.

2. The idea that there all these available coaches out there who are highly likely to turn a program around, doesn't seem to square with what I have seen. Maryland fired Fridgen and hires Randy Edsall, who was the hot property, the coaching whiz that was going to get them to the net level in the B1G.

Randy Edsall was not a "hot" property.

He did okay at Uconn building the program, but the performance of his teams were pretty pedestrian. What he did at Maryland wasn't really all that different than what he did at Uconn.

What he did there was be exactly the coach they hired, if they didn't know what they were buying, that's their problem.

You need to get out more that is all you have seen.

There are plenty of recent examples of small private schools recovering from being horrible, Stanford, Baylor, Syracuse, Duke. All it requires is the right hire.

Stanford was able to keep things going with Shaw, Briles is still at Baylor, Cutcliffe still at Duke. Shafer hasn't been able to keep things going at SU. Fuente has taken a horrible Memphis program to a double digit win program in a couple of years. Montgomery has already won as many games in one year as Tulsa did the two years prior in his first year.

It's already been done here once and if Shafer is replaced the new guy will be starting in a MUCH, MUCH better place than Marrone did.

 

[orangepassion]

Here is my point, when you realize your current staff is not getting their job done and most likely won't, you have no other choice but to fire and hire somebody else. People can make all excuses in the world but it's just the way it goes. Where or what will happen from here nobody knows but staying the course is not a realistic option with what we have seen. Recruiting is average and we are in the basement in O and D.

Like I said, we may always stink, we may never be good again but you can't stop trying.

If Temple can be good, so can we.

 

[cuseguy]

If Temple can be good, so can we.

Temple lost big to South Florida.

They're not that good.

 

[rrlbees]

Randy Edsall was not a "hot" property. He did okay at Uconn building the program, but the performance of his teams were pretty pedestrian. What he did at Maryland wasn't really all that different than what he did at Uconn. What he did there was be exactly the coach they hired, if they didn't know what they were buying, that's their problem. You need to get out more that is all you have seen. There are plenty of recent examples of small private schools recovering from being horrible, Stanford, Baylor, Syracuse, Duke. All it requires is the right hire. Stanford was able to keep things going with Shaw, Briles is still at Baylor, Cutcliffe still at Duke. Shafer hasn't been able to keep things going at SU. Fuente has taken a horrible Memphis program to a double digit win program in a couple of years. Montgomery has already won as many games in one year as Tulsa did the two years prior in his first year. It's already been done here once and if Shafer is replaced the new guy will be starting in a MUCH, MUCH better place than Marrone did.

If we consider 25-25 good, the bar has certainly been lowered. Those other teams you lumped SU with are much much further along.

 

[orangepassion]

Temple lost big to South Florida.

They're not that good.

8-2, including a win over Penn State, and a near-win ND. If that's not that good, I'll be happy when SU can be "not that good".

 

[cuseguy]

8-2, including a win over Penn State, and a near-win ND. If that's not that good, I'll be happy when SU can be "not that good".

ND and Penn State are two of the most overrated teams in college football.

ND was lucky to escape Virginia with a win.

Temple's record may say "good," but it's built on a weak schedule.

 

[orangepassion]

ND and Penn State are two of the most overrated teams in college football.

Maybe, but they're both better than anyone we've beaten this year

 

[jr4750]

ND and Penn State are two of the most overrated teams in college football.

ND was lucky to escape Virginia with a win.

Temple's record may say "good," but it's built on a weak schedule.

Hear that, but my kingdom to be 8-2 on any type of schedule.

 

[cuseguy]

Hear that, but my kingdom to be 8-2 on any type of schedule.

We probably need to leave the ACC to accomplish that.

 

[phil77]

We probably need to leave the ACC to accomplish that.

Yes because winning 8 games in the ACC is impossible...

 

[cuseguy]

Maybe, but they're both better than anyone we've beaten this year

Temple didn't beat ND.

I guess SU should get credit for playing it close with Clemson, LSU and Pitt.

 

[GoSU96]

If we consider 25-25 good, the bar has certainly been lowered. Those other teams you lumped SU with are much much further along.

You really have no idea what you are talking about.

Stanford, 4 yrs before Harbaugh, 14-31, 4-8, 5-7, 8-5, 12-1, Andrew Luck at QB. Same record after three years as Marrone.

Baylor, 15-31 4 yrs before Briles, 4-8, 4-8, 7-6, 10-3, RGIII came in as a freshmen with him. 25-25 after 4.

Duke, 4-42, 4-8, 5-7, 3-9, 3-9. 15-33 after 4.

Stanford and Baylor started in better condition and had a Heisman runner up and Heisman winner at QB respectively.

Harbaugh, Briles, and Cutcliffe had already been successful at their previous head coaching jobs while Marrone matched them in his first. Still want to tell me how 25-25 isn't good given what those other programs did over the same time frame?

As for current state, yeah those other programs are now further along because they were able to keep the good hires they made or made a good call on the replacement and have invested substantially more than SU in the same time period.

That still doesn't mean that the next guy won't be picking up a program in much, much better shape than where this program was at the end of 2008.

Those other programs have also invested substantially more than SU. Stanford did a stadium remodel in 2006, as noted has a lot of financial resources, and built a new 21M football facility that was completed in 2013. Baylor built a brand new state of the art stadium $266M stadium and new state of the art lockerroom, opened last year. Duke has sunk a ton of money into facilities as well.

 

[rrlbees]

You really have no idea what you are talking about. Stanford, 4 yrs before Harbaugh, 14-31, 4-8, 5-7, 8-5, 12-1, Andrew Luck at QB. Same record after three years as Marrone. Baylor, 15-31 4 yrs before Briles, 4-8, 4-8, 7-6, 10-3, RGIII came in as a freshmen with him. 25-25 after 4. Duke, 4-42, 4-8, 5-7, 3-9, 3-9. 15-33 after 4. Stanford and Baylor started in better condition and had a Heisman runner up and Heisman winner at QB respectively. Harbaugh, Briles, and Cutcliffe had already been successful at their previous head coaching jobs while Marrone matched them in his first. Still want to tell me how 25-25 isn't good given what those other programs did over the same time frame? As for current state, yeah those other programs are now further along because they were able to keep the good hires they made or made a good call on the replacement and have invested substantially more than SU in the same time period. That still doesn't mean that the next guy won't be picking up a program in much, much better shape than where this program was at the end of 2008. Those other programs have also invested substantially more than SU. Stanford did a stadium remodel in 2006, as noted has a lot of financial resources, and built a new 21M football facility that was completed in 2013. Baylor built a brand new state of the art stadium $266M stadium and new state of the art lockerroom, opened last year. Duke has sunk a ton of money into facilities as well.

So why would you lump SU with them? You think if Marrone was still here we'd be like Baylor, a top 10 program? Each of those other teams may have spent money or been better than SU pre-Marrone, so what is the point of the comparison? Perception of Marrone? He took a bad program and made it .500 average. Ok, but that doesn't mean we'd be any of those other schools.

 

[GoSU96]

So why would you lump SU with them? You think if Marrone was still here we'd be like Baylor, a top 10 program? Each of those other teams may have spent money or been better than SU pre-Marrone, so what is the point of the comparison? Perception of Marrone? He took a bad program and made it .500 average. Ok, but that doesn't mean we'd be any of those other schools.

Why lump them in, the point of the comparison? Did you read the post I was responding to, the one that said turnarounds don't happen. I gave four examples of where it happened in four small private schools, including here. That was the point of the comparison, to knock down a bunch of ignorant whining about how it can't be done, when it already has been.

Yeah, he took a bad program and made it average, just like Harbaugh and Briles did, from a worse starting position. How do you know where this program would be three years later? Probably not top 10, but they probably win 8/9/10 games each of the last three years because this program would have had one of the top three staffs in the conference.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Temple lost big to South Florida.

They're not that good.

Can you sustain success is the question? teams put together 1 good year quite often.

That would be my question with programs like Temple and USF are you building or just catching lightning in a bottle with a good group of seniors etc?

 

[Millhouse]

I'm hoping SU said bye bye a long time ago to being afraid to get embarrassed. Because if there's one thing we're good at...

we've wallowing in mediocrity but we shouldn't make a change because we'll be so embarrassed if we don't get everyone's top choice... ??

the things that people worry about

 

[orangepassion]

Can you sustain success is the question? teams put together 1 good year quite often.

That would be my question with programs like Temple and USF are you building or just catching lightning in a bottle with a good group of seniors etc?

I present you Stanford, Boise State, Duke

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I present you Stanford, Boise State, Duke

Not saying it cant be done, just asking if USF and Temple can do it. IMO, they are both pretty good teams this year

 

[Millhouse]

I present you Stanford, Boise State, Duke

duke is a little iffy. they had 2 good years although they'll probably get to 8 this year.

 

[Chip]

we've wallowing in mediocrity but we shouldn't make a change because we'll be so embarrassed if we don't get everyone's top choice... ?? the things that people worry about

I also like the argument that we should keep the current unqualified guy because if we don't make the right hire, we could end up with an unqualified guy.

Well, we certainly can't have that.

Next thing you know we'll have 3 win seasons with net yards per game being 2nd worst in the P5.

 

[rrlbees]

I also like the argument that we should keep the current unqualified guy because if we don't make the right hire, we could end up with an unqualified guy. Well, we certainly can't have that. Next thing you know we'll have 3 win seasons with net yards per game being 2nd worst in the P5.

If keeping Shafer another year was a mistake, it cost us 1 year.

If the next guy is a mistake, it costs us 3 years or more.

If the move is made, the confidence level in the guy has to be real high and has to be someone that Coyle wants and will own.

And yes I know any new hire whether it be this year or next will have some risk involved.

And no I'm not advocating Shafer has to be retained. I'm advocating that whatever the decision is, I have faith in SU and Coyle.

 

[Townie72]

This is a good point ... you don't necessarily upgrade by changing staffs. You roll the dice. I think the current staff, now that Lester is in place and running his offense, is doing the best it can with the talent they have. Obviously, our record is not good. Anyone can see that. What I think some miss is that, despite a clear talent disparity, our offense looks better and our defense has played well against some of the top teams in the country. None of this is because we have any size or speed. It's because we have good schemes that are effective despite our talent deficit. So I'd like to see the staff have another year or two to recruit the players that fit into the new systems. I think we can be more successful, as we've seen in flashes recently against top teams.

What worries me more is recruiting. I think talent is the underlying problem, not coaching. And the talent is only incrementally improving. We are nowhere near where we need to be to compete against the top half of the ACC, which is an extremely competitive league. It seems like every other team we play is top 20, or even top 10 -- almost all of them have big fast RB's and WR's that we can't tackle or cover. As a result, beating these teams in the near future is not realistic. Even stepping up to a .500 conference record is going to require a much deeper talent pool at the skill positions than we have. I don't have an answer to this .. but I doubt a new staff is going to help. Probably the best thing that could happen is a dome renovation plan gets announced.

You and I agree on a lot.

But the single greatest barrier to recruiting is the all the Northeastern schools fishing in the same, shallow talent pool. When we were good, schools like UConn, and Rutgers and Temple didn't really exist as competitors. And schools like Alabama were far, far away. Today --- with 105 games on every Saturday, those schools have all the Northern exposure they could ask for. (Maryland's top recruiting target from the local area *Stefan Diggs brother) just decided on Alabama as his college choice)

For a couple of years now I have been trying to figure out just how good these SEC schools really were. After all, when I see them they are playing one another. But I now believe they are really, really good and that they have much better athletes. And that even the Southern ACC schools are better than the Northern ones. Speed, size, strength and relish for football seems to have slowly migrated South.

It all boils down to the basic "achievability" of us returning to what we were in the 1990's.

Our expectations ought to be at the top range of what is actually achievable.

 

[jr4750]

You and I agree on a lot.

But the single greatest barrier to recruiting is the all the Northeastern schools fishing in the same, shallow talent pool. When we were good, schools like UConn, and Rutgers and Temple didn't really exist as competitors. And schools like Alabama were far, far away. Today --- with 105 games on every Saturday, those schools have all the Northern exposure they could ask for. (Maryland's top recruiting target from the local area *Stefan Diggs brother) just decided on Alabama as his college choice)

For a couple of years now I have been trying to figure out just how good these SEC schools really were. After all, when I see them they are playing one another. But I now believe they are really, really good and that they have much better athletes. And that even the Southern ACC schools are better than the Northern ones. Speed, size, strength and relish for football seems to have slowly migrated South.

It all boils down to the basic "achievability" of us returning to what we were in the 1990's.

Our expectations ought to be at the top range of what is actually achievable.

The thought of what our high end expectations should/could be need to be realistic. I know you aren't saying this at all, but I'm all about 8-4 seasons, with the occasional 9-3, 10-2 year. Sign me up right now. A couple new years bowl games, Gator Bowl anyone, and I am content. I respect our position and the unlikelihood of us ever being any better than that. If we could just be exciting, I would be content. Seriously if we were losing 49-52, and we put crazy points on the board, I'm in. This slog of just marginal offense has been so painful. I do enjoy Shafer's aggressive defense however, at least when it is somewhat capable of stopping the opposition.

 

[reedny]

Here is my point, when you realize your current staff is not getting their job done and most likely won't, you have no other choice but to fire and hire somebody else. People can make all excuses in the world but it's just the way it goes. Where or what will happen from here nobody knows but staying the course is not a realistic option with what we have seen. Recruiting is average and we are in the basement in O and D.

Like I said, we may always stink, we may never be good again but you can't stop trying.

I get your point, as you've posted this several times. And I respectfully disagree. You state, "... the current staff is not getting their job done...". But the staff doesn't play; players have to execute the scheme on the field. And our players have competed hard against top-tier teams even though, in terms of size, speed and talent at the skill positions, they're no where near the level of Clemson or Florida State. They're not competitive with LV either.

So of course, they're not going to beat these teams. The fact that we played FSU and Clemson tough isn't a testament to our players' talent level. It's a testament to the job the staff is doing with these young kids (who played their butts off).

If you criticize the recruiting .. I can accept that. But it's improving. And talent is the most important factor in on-field success. You mention Alabama for example --- their RB is 6'4 240 pounds. And not only that, he has breakaway speed. Is it any wonder he's hard to tackle?

This isn't rocket science. We're loosing because we lack talent. Our coaches are doing what they can to keep us competitive. But they aren't magicians. Until we get our facilities in line with ACC competition (i.e., Dome renovation), we can't expect our recruiting to vault upwards. It's all tied together.

 

[reedny]

You and I agree on a lot.

But the single greatest barrier to recruiting is the all the Northeastern schools fishing in the same, shallow talent pool. When we were good, schools like UConn, and Rutgers and Temple didn't really exist as competitors. And schools like Alabama were far, far away. Today --- with 105 games on every Saturday, those schools have all the Northern exposure they could ask for. (Maryland's top recruiting target from the local area *Stefan Diggs brother) just decided on Alabama as his college choice)

For a couple of years now I have been trying to figure out just how good these SEC schools really were. After all, when I see them they are playing one another. But I now believe they are really, really good and that they have much better athletes. And that even the Southern ACC schools are better than the Northern ones. Speed, size, strength and relish for football seems to have slowly migrated South.

It all boils down to the basic "achievability" of us returning to what we were in the 1990's.

Our expectations ought to be at the top range of what is actually achievable.

And I agree with most of this. Talent is migrating to big name schools, not just Alabama, but ND, Penn State, Michigan and other schools. And that's the trend we have to buck. Until the IPF was built, our facilities were an easy excuse for recruits. We didn't measure up with our competition. And it's not Southern SEC powers. Penn State out-recruits us, and it's a Northern school. So are Northwestern, and ND and Michigan.

One huge reason --that all these posts clamoring for a regime change omit-- is facilities. Facilities and talent go together. We all remember this from the 90's when the Dome was a novelty. Today, it's tired. And, no surprise, we're struggling to keep up with our ACC peers. The IPF is helping, but when the Dome renovations are announced and progress becomes visible, I think this will begin a new era for us in recruiting.