The PAT (No, Not That One)

[690West]

But is going for two really a riskier play than attempting an extra point?

Going for 2 (with jacobian or Tucker wildcat) has 1 in 10,000 chance that it’s fumbled and returned for 2 points the other way

kicking the XP has a 1 in 1,000 of the same result.

some of the responses in this thread are mind bottling.

 

[690West]

The guy was QB2 for at least a week going into the game. My understanding is that QB2 is expected to be ready to go in when called upon. He is also a second-year guy who has started games against P5 opponents. People are exaggerating Morgan's potential lack of preparedness for that moment.

The idea that Morgan, who has played multiple power five games, would likely fumble AND it would be returned for 2 the other way is the worst EV calculation in the history of this board. I’m at a loss

there is also a ton of outcome bias coming into play because we won. I’m guilty of that all the time.

 

[Finwad32]

The idea that Morgan, who has played multiple power five games, would likely fumble AND it would be returned for 2 the other way is the worst EV calculation in the history of this board. I’m at a loss

there is also a ton of outcome bias coming into play because we won. I’m guilty of that all the time.

You’re right about outcome bias, always ifs. If my aunt had hangers she’d be my uncle.

If those #’s are correct, and I’m assuming they don’t factor in the potential for interceptions as well, then the analytics certainly go against my thought process.

 

[RF2044]

Ha, recognizing it is better to be up by six than five is overthinking.

No, it's overthinking to expect the team to do something unorthodox, that 99.9% of coaches wouldn't do, when the starting QB just got tattooed with a massive hit and was out of the game.

It's interesting that the two people who are actually football coaches in this thread seem to advocate kicking there. Again, I think everybody gets that under normal circumstances, going for 2 would have been the call. But doing so with the starting QB out of the game -- not as easy of a call. Taking a knee instead of kicking to prevent a block / return also seems too far fetched to consider. I'll ask the question again -- has anyone ever seen a team do that?

 

[690West]

It's interesting that the two people who are actually football coaches in this thread seem to advocate kicking there.

Vince Lombardi and Knute Rockne would've kicked there. And it would've been a poor choice.

"Actual football coaches" as recent as 10 years ago would punt on 4th and 1 from the opposing 30 without hesitation. Analytics aren't the end all, be all, but there are times the math is the math.

I love this thread because we have smart real coaches debating with some of us that are more analytic driven. Its fun.

 

[shandeezy7]

My only question is, Have you ever seen any team anywhere take a knee in that situation?

Yes.

Oregon’s 2-point conversion kneel made total sense. Here’s how.

Highly unusual, Mark Helfrich. But smart.

www.sbnation.com

Bettors React To Cardinals Failing To Cover Due To Opting Out Of Extra Point - NESN.com

The Arizona Cardinals won with a Hail Mary touchdown, but failed to cover as they opted against attempting an extra point.

nesn.com

Minnesota's decision to kneel the extra point against the Saints had a big impact in Vegas

LAS VEGAS (AP) — The clock had ticked down to zero, and Minnesota fans were already deep into a celebration like no other.

www.nola.com

Furious gamblers slam the Eagles for the way they failed to cover the spread

This was brutal for bettors.

ftw.usatoday.com

 

[xc84]

No I am saying it for effect. Taking a knee is safer than kicking a PAT. Being up 4 is no different than 5. So if you are too scared to go for 2 then you should be equally scared to kick the PAT. Same risk with zero reward.

Ok... how about this wrinkle. With a goal of using clock, have someone run around the field with the ball for a while and then take a knee.

 

[shandeezy7]

Ok... how about this wrinkle. With a goal of using clock, have someone run around the field with the ball for a while and then take a knee.

The clock doesn't run on extra points, so that would be a pointless exercise.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Yes.

Oregon’s 2-point conversion kneel made total sense. Here’s how.

Highly unusual, Mark Helfrich. But smart.

www.sbnation.com

Bettors React To Cardinals Failing To Cover Due To Opting Out Of Extra Point - NESN.com

The Arizona Cardinals won with a Hail Mary touchdown, but failed to cover as they opted against attempting an extra point.

nesn.com

Minnesota's decision to kneel the extra point against the Saints had a big impact in Vegas

LAS VEGAS (AP) — The clock had ticked down to zero, and Minnesota fans were already deep into a celebration like no other.

www.nola.com

Furious gamblers slam the Eagles for the way they failed to cover the spread

This was brutal for bettors.

ftw.usatoday.com

Wow didn't know that had happened. Really Dino's choices were kneel or 2 point try. PAT shouldn't have even been an option.

I think most HCs do not think about strategy enough. That is why they are so bad at time management, when to go for it on 4th down, FG vs Punt, 2 point conversions, etc. they are just so focused on Xs and Os that is slips their mind. Then when they have to actually make a decision they are not prepared and have no plan. Which is ironic given that a lot of coaches over prepare with the Xs and Os. I think most coaches kick the PAT in that situation just because the 6 point vs 5 point never even crossed their minds. They didn't realize there was a decision to be made and just did what they do by habit (kick the PAT). That is why IMO all football coaches need a consigliere.

 

[Doc5120]

Going for 2 (with jacobian or Tucker wildcat) has 1 in 10,000 chance that it’s fumbled and returned for 2 points the other way

kicking the XP has a 1 in 1,000 of the same result.

some of the responses in this thread are mind bottling.

Could not agree more. If we can't expect our backup QB (or literally any QB on the roster) to go out there and handle a snap, be it under center or in the shotgun, and then either try and sneak in or hand the ball off cleanly, then said QB should not be playing football. We did something that literally could not benefit us in any way, shape or form. I'm trying to understand how this decision is being defended.