We've played 10 games, pretty close to 1/3 of a season. Certainly not enough to come to many hard and fast judgments on Red or this group as a whole, but we also have a more of a sample size for this current group and a much better idea of what Red is attempting to install here (at least, I think so on the latter point).
After re-watching the G'town and UVA games, I feel comfortable saying this isn't a top-4/5 ACC team and we're likely to be scrambling to find our way into the tourney field. I think we'll be a tough out for most ACC teams and be very competitive but not sure we're good enough or complete enough to really push the Miamis, Dukes and UNCs of the world. Obviously, nothing is set in stone and we're a work in progress, so if I'm wrong, that's terrific.
But having said that, I think we're looking at two key questions to determine if we can outplay my best guess as to this team's likely fate.
1) Can Red figure out how to mix and match a bunch of misfit parts?
Red's got a confusing roster to manage at this point. Judah is Judah and the good faaaarrr exceeds the bad there. JJ is likely to get a lot of run because as up and down as he is, he can get to the rim, handle the ball, defend and (fingers crossed) he's 5 for his last 9 on threes. Bell should get some good run because he's been given the green light to shoot whenever (at least I think that has to be the case) and he can knock down shots. He's .382 on the season from three and if you take the UVA game out of the picture, he's shooting 45% from the floor and 42% from three. Brown isn't a real scoring threat, but he's probably your second-best all-around player, so he'll play quite a bit too.
But, the rest of the crew? Who knows? Copeland is a creator who has confidence and plays with a very high energy level (aside from maybe being your best rebounder). So that's the good. But his turnover rate is crazy and while the jumper looks better, he's still a liability there). Taylor doesn't need the ball in his hands to do good things ... but he's basically been a non-factor offensively in six of our 10 games. He's simply not able to create is own offense. Cuffe is intriguing to me but I'm not sure he's a guy they can really, truly lean on this season as he works his way back on the floor after two years of injuries. Maybe, but not sure. Benny can shoot a bit, can pass a bit, and he's not a bad rebounder. But he is also really up and down and you just never know what he's going to bring. McLeod/Hima/Carey ... what can you say?
The same holds true defensively. Mintz still brings more good than bad on this end, Starling isn't a playmaker defensively, but he's solid. Brown is a good defender. May get abused by bigger bigs, but it is what it is. Copeland gambles a lot but is really active on the defensive end. Cuffe seems like a really nice fit for this defense -- plays the passing lanes well, is solid on-ball (though he struggled vs. UVA). Taylor get out-muscled occasionally, or struggles at times to keep up with quicker players. But, by and large he's ok there.
Other than that? Bell has improved defensively, but remains adequate at best, IMO. He's not active enough -- that jump ball against G'town where McLeod wins the tip but the guy Bell is lined up next to reacts and has the ball before Bell has moved. It's a question of consistent intensity and activity. That's reflected in his atrocious rebounding as well. Same goes for Benny in terms of intensity. He had a brutal day defensively against Georgetown and got beat to two loose balls. McLeod would probably be a nice piece in a zone but ... we don't really play much zone. In man, he's a complete and utter liability. Hima might be a bit better but apparently he's broken down.
So how does Red work this rotation? I guess at some level you mix and match game to game until you find what works. I feel like Copeland is a good fit on offense with his creativity, handle and confidence and a good fit on defense with his length, quickness and rebounding ... but, I just don't know on his decision-making and turnovers. My gut tells me you hope he can even out a bit with more PT, but I can understand why others would disagree.
Bell and Taylor are the two I can't figure out. Bell's shooting has been really good. His release looks quicker and cleaner to me this year. He has a nice pump-fake/pull-up and he's even gotten into the lane a few times. He's improved defensively too, but man is he a complete non-factor outside of scoring. Offensively, he doesn't move, just camps out on the wing or in the corner. He never finds anyone for a bucket and he never gets to the line -- he has six assists and five free throw attempts in 10 games. That's almost unfathomable. Defensively, he's better but he's not great, not a good team defender and his lack of rebounding is an absolute killer. He had 1 reb vs. g'town and it was a ball going out of bounds that he saved to Taylor. Brutal.
Taylor brings some more variety to his game -- can play some defense, pretty solid rebounder, he's third on the team in assists, and the kid plays hard. But he has zero ability -- or at least no confidence in his ability -- to get a shot against a decent opponent. I realize I'm cherry-picking, but if colgate, tennessee, gonzaga, LSU, UVA and g'town are the six best teams we've played so far, Taylor has 18 total points in those six games on 6-for-37 shooting (16%). I mean, again, unfathomable.
McLeod and Hima are going to really struggle in this defensive system. Carey, who knows? Is he healthy? Any idea? Cuffe fits really well defensively, IMO, even though UVA was tough for him. But his offensive game is a bit dicey. And that's that. Those are your options.
Not an easy task.
Second question: How can we tweak this defense to be more cohesive?
I'm not sure if we are bad at help defense or if maybe the idea is that we don't want to help and force people to make individual plays, but any way you slice it good teams are going to carve up this defense. Thought G'town got good looks from three in the second half and just didn't shoot well. That game could have gone down to the wire.
The issue to me is we have five guys all trying to play good defense but no structure to anything and I'm not sure about our advanced scouting. Georgetown opened with three uncontested layups -- one off a high ball screen, one off refusing the ball screen. Super simple offensive actions. We gave up two of their made threes on really simple action that we just didn't react well to at all. We've had games where we've let Taylor get abused against a bigger offensive player on the block, over and over, and not sent any help. We let the Daniels kid from UNH go left over and over when he's left-handed. We have McLeod playing drop coverage where he somehow manages to not guard his man, not guard the guy coming around the screen and then occasionally pick off whichever teammate is chasing the ball-handler.
It's just strange. To me, if you are going to try and get the most out of McLeod you've got to employ some sort of zone where he can hang around the basket. The rest of the time you can play man but we can't let opposing bigs get position down low, take three or four dribbles and pump fake/pivot three or four times without any help coming. We can't get caught with a guard chasing a play around screens but effectively being 7 or 8 feet behind the play without anyone else reacting. We have to get back on defense and have balance defensively if our guards are driving into the paint on offense all night.
At the end of the day, five guys face-guarding the other team may work on some nights, but we've got to have better reactions when we get put in bad spots.
So how do you fix it? I think we need to attack ball-handlers with a big off the screen. That means Brown at the 5 most of the time. When a guard gets caught on a screen off-ball, we need the awareness for the screener's defender to switch and take that guy -- no more chasing a play four or five steps behind the defender. We need better communication on off-ball screens in general. We need to take better shots on offense and get back on defense to set up more consistently. When Taylor gets in a tough matchup down low, we need to go into scramble mode and help. We need some sort of zone so we can take advantage of McLeod's minutes for stretches. This just generally needs to be a more sophisticated approach.
After re-watching the G'town and UVA games, I feel comfortable saying this isn't a top-4/5 ACC team and we're likely to be scrambling to find our way into the tourney field. I think we'll be a tough out for most ACC teams and be very competitive but not sure we're good enough or complete enough to really push the Miamis, Dukes and UNCs of the world. Obviously, nothing is set in stone and we're a work in progress, so if I'm wrong, that's terrific.
But having said that, I think we're looking at two key questions to determine if we can outplay my best guess as to this team's likely fate.
1) Can Red figure out how to mix and match a bunch of misfit parts?
Red's got a confusing roster to manage at this point. Judah is Judah and the good faaaarrr exceeds the bad there. JJ is likely to get a lot of run because as up and down as he is, he can get to the rim, handle the ball, defend and (fingers crossed) he's 5 for his last 9 on threes. Bell should get some good run because he's been given the green light to shoot whenever (at least I think that has to be the case) and he can knock down shots. He's .382 on the season from three and if you take the UVA game out of the picture, he's shooting 45% from the floor and 42% from three. Brown isn't a real scoring threat, but he's probably your second-best all-around player, so he'll play quite a bit too.
But, the rest of the crew? Who knows? Copeland is a creator who has confidence and plays with a very high energy level (aside from maybe being your best rebounder). So that's the good. But his turnover rate is crazy and while the jumper looks better, he's still a liability there). Taylor doesn't need the ball in his hands to do good things ... but he's basically been a non-factor offensively in six of our 10 games. He's simply not able to create is own offense. Cuffe is intriguing to me but I'm not sure he's a guy they can really, truly lean on this season as he works his way back on the floor after two years of injuries. Maybe, but not sure. Benny can shoot a bit, can pass a bit, and he's not a bad rebounder. But he is also really up and down and you just never know what he's going to bring. McLeod/Hima/Carey ... what can you say?
The same holds true defensively. Mintz still brings more good than bad on this end, Starling isn't a playmaker defensively, but he's solid. Brown is a good defender. May get abused by bigger bigs, but it is what it is. Copeland gambles a lot but is really active on the defensive end. Cuffe seems like a really nice fit for this defense -- plays the passing lanes well, is solid on-ball (though he struggled vs. UVA). Taylor get out-muscled occasionally, or struggles at times to keep up with quicker players. But, by and large he's ok there.
Other than that? Bell has improved defensively, but remains adequate at best, IMO. He's not active enough -- that jump ball against G'town where McLeod wins the tip but the guy Bell is lined up next to reacts and has the ball before Bell has moved. It's a question of consistent intensity and activity. That's reflected in his atrocious rebounding as well. Same goes for Benny in terms of intensity. He had a brutal day defensively against Georgetown and got beat to two loose balls. McLeod would probably be a nice piece in a zone but ... we don't really play much zone. In man, he's a complete and utter liability. Hima might be a bit better but apparently he's broken down.
So how does Red work this rotation? I guess at some level you mix and match game to game until you find what works. I feel like Copeland is a good fit on offense with his creativity, handle and confidence and a good fit on defense with his length, quickness and rebounding ... but, I just don't know on his decision-making and turnovers. My gut tells me you hope he can even out a bit with more PT, but I can understand why others would disagree.
Bell and Taylor are the two I can't figure out. Bell's shooting has been really good. His release looks quicker and cleaner to me this year. He has a nice pump-fake/pull-up and he's even gotten into the lane a few times. He's improved defensively too, but man is he a complete non-factor outside of scoring. Offensively, he doesn't move, just camps out on the wing or in the corner. He never finds anyone for a bucket and he never gets to the line -- he has six assists and five free throw attempts in 10 games. That's almost unfathomable. Defensively, he's better but he's not great, not a good team defender and his lack of rebounding is an absolute killer. He had 1 reb vs. g'town and it was a ball going out of bounds that he saved to Taylor. Brutal.
Taylor brings some more variety to his game -- can play some defense, pretty solid rebounder, he's third on the team in assists, and the kid plays hard. But he has zero ability -- or at least no confidence in his ability -- to get a shot against a decent opponent. I realize I'm cherry-picking, but if colgate, tennessee, gonzaga, LSU, UVA and g'town are the six best teams we've played so far, Taylor has 18 total points in those six games on 6-for-37 shooting (16%). I mean, again, unfathomable.
McLeod and Hima are going to really struggle in this defensive system. Carey, who knows? Is he healthy? Any idea? Cuffe fits really well defensively, IMO, even though UVA was tough for him. But his offensive game is a bit dicey. And that's that. Those are your options.
Not an easy task.
Second question: How can we tweak this defense to be more cohesive?
I'm not sure if we are bad at help defense or if maybe the idea is that we don't want to help and force people to make individual plays, but any way you slice it good teams are going to carve up this defense. Thought G'town got good looks from three in the second half and just didn't shoot well. That game could have gone down to the wire.
The issue to me is we have five guys all trying to play good defense but no structure to anything and I'm not sure about our advanced scouting. Georgetown opened with three uncontested layups -- one off a high ball screen, one off refusing the ball screen. Super simple offensive actions. We gave up two of their made threes on really simple action that we just didn't react well to at all. We've had games where we've let Taylor get abused against a bigger offensive player on the block, over and over, and not sent any help. We let the Daniels kid from UNH go left over and over when he's left-handed. We have McLeod playing drop coverage where he somehow manages to not guard his man, not guard the guy coming around the screen and then occasionally pick off whichever teammate is chasing the ball-handler.
It's just strange. To me, if you are going to try and get the most out of McLeod you've got to employ some sort of zone where he can hang around the basket. The rest of the time you can play man but we can't let opposing bigs get position down low, take three or four dribbles and pump fake/pivot three or four times without any help coming. We can't get caught with a guard chasing a play around screens but effectively being 7 or 8 feet behind the play without anyone else reacting. We have to get back on defense and have balance defensively if our guards are driving into the paint on offense all night.
At the end of the day, five guys face-guarding the other team may work on some nights, but we've got to have better reactions when we get put in bad spots.
So how do you fix it? I think we need to attack ball-handlers with a big off the screen. That means Brown at the 5 most of the time. When a guard gets caught on a screen off-ball, we need the awareness for the screener's defender to switch and take that guy -- no more chasing a play four or five steps behind the defender. We need better communication on off-ball screens in general. We need to take better shots on offense and get back on defense to set up more consistently. When Taylor gets in a tough matchup down low, we need to go into scramble mode and help. We need some sort of zone so we can take advantage of McLeod's minutes for stretches. This just generally needs to be a more sophisticated approach.
