Three BE bubble teams...

[omniorange]

But what about an NC ST? I think Iona is fair to add, even if only because as the top smallish mid-major they are bound to get alot of discussion revolving around them. Perhaps by Sunday they are counted out, but they will be a team the committee talks alot about.

I do agree that Tennessee has the underrated resume, that has sort of snuck up on people. They can't afford to lose to Ole Miss today however,

Disagree on Iona. They were in better shape when the St. Joe's win looked better than it does now. But all they have now is the Nevada win. That won't get it done with a SOS of 144.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[jncuse]

I think it comes down to 9 in, with a low chance 8 and lesser chance at 10.

While many have Seton Hall, even with limited bubble busters, I dount they get in. Resume, 2011 BE success considerations.

 

[jncuse]

Disagree on Iona. They were in better shape when the St. Joe's win looked better than it does now. But all they have now is the Nevada win. That won't get it done with a SOS of 144.

Cheers,
Neil

My point was not whether Iona will get in or not. My point was that they are the type of team that will get alot of discussion from the committee, because they are that theoretical team that I am sure people have varying opinions on.

Historically these teams are left out, but the bubble team comparisons did not have as bad resumes as this year. I have them as last in right now, but likely by the end of the weekend that spot will be gone.

 

[bpo57]

Tennessee is probably the most undervalued of the "bubble teams", imho.

Cheers,
Neil

agree with that. They win today and they are in imo.

 

[BuffOrange]

I hate the unbalanced schedule. Love the day when you could look at the conference standings and see USF at 12-6 and WVa at 9-9 and make a pretty accurate determination that USF is the better team. Now, its like comparing those records is like a complete apples to oranges comparison. Who did you have to double up with, who did you have to play only at their place?

Right. And then you have the "it's not USF's fault Pitt and Nova stunk" people. OK great, but it's not some other bubble team's fault either so you want to punish them instead? :crazy:
The whole thing would be a lot easier if USF had just taken care of business vs Uconn and/or WVU at home but since they lost both of those games I don't really have a problem with them being left out.

 

[jncuse]

NC St beating Virginia at half time. Certainly not an outright big stealing win if it continues, but it puts them on equal footing with the currently "in" teams.

 

[jncuse]

Right. And then you have the "it's not USF's fault Pitt and Nova stunk" people. OK great, but it's not some other bubble team's fault either so you want to punish them instead? :crazy:
The whole thing would be a lot easier if USF had just taken care of business vs Uconn and/or WVU at home but since they lost both of those games I don't really have a problem with them being left out.

USF's big east record would not have been scrutinized if they had simply taken care of business OOC. Losses to Auburn, Penn St...

 

[bpo57]

In my mind, Seton Hall is already out. They aren't taking Northwestern and since Seton Hall lost to Northwestern, they won't likely take the Pirates either.

I believe the only "bid steelers" out there is an unexpected A10 champ (not St. Louis or Xavier) or California getting upset in the Pac-12 (since they basically are the only Pac-12 team possibly deserving of an at-large) or NC State defeating Virginia tonight.

I think the Top 5 from my earlier list are (alpha) - Drexel, Miami, South Florida, Tennessee, and Xavier. So, if one of those three things happen then USF will be in a dog fight with Xavier for the final at-large spot. I actually believe the Bulls might win that since Xavier has not been the same team since the fight.

If two of those things happen then I believe both USF and Xavier will be out.

Cheers,
Neil

NC State is in if they win today imo. You are missing several potential bid stealers. If LB State loses or Nevada loses then that could shrink available bids by one or two. Miami can do a lot for themselves if they beat FSU today. CUSA could have something happen as well. There are at least a half dozen things that could happen that might be fatal events for USF and SHU.

 

[jncuse]

NC State is in if they win today imo. You are missing several potential bid stealers. If LB State loses or Nevada loses then that could shrink available bids by one or two. Miami can do a lot for themselves if they beat FSU today. CUSA could have something happen as well. There are at least a half dozen things that could happen that might be fatal events for USF and SHU.

Almost 0% chance that Nevada gets in as an at large.

Miami may already be in the group of 68, so who are they stealing from.

 

[jncuse]

Add Dayton as a contender if it loses in the A-10 final. In that scenario they are they have 3 or 4 wins vs top 50, and 10-8 vs top 100. Good for a bubble team.

 

[omniorange]

NC State is in if they win today imo. You are missing several potential bid stealers. If LB State loses or Nevada loses then that could shrink available bids by one or two. Miami can do a lot for themselves if they beat FSU today. CUSA could have something happen as well. There are at least a half dozen things that could happen that might be fatal events for USF and SHU.

As jncuse already said there is 0% chance of Nevada getting in as an at-large. LBS would get the committee discussing (way moreso than Iona, imho) if they get bumped, but ultimately, they have zero Top 50 wins. To my recollection the only at-large team to get in with zero Top 50 wins was Air Force back in 2005-06.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[jncuse]

Agreed LB ST has more of a case then Iona. I think one of the things LB St will get credit for is going out there and competing well against several top teams in America OOC -- even in defeat. It would fit in with the message that the NCAA does reward teams that attempt to schedule. So I think they would get in regardless, and would get benefit of doubt on the eye test because they were competitive.

I also thought that Southern Miss lost last night, but they actually won and are playing now. So that significantly reduced the chance of a bid being stolen by the CUSA.

 

[Knicks411]

Right. And then you have the "it's not USF's fault Pitt and Nova stunk" people. OK great, but it's not some other bubble team's fault either so you want to punish them instead?

I love that. Stan Heath said something like "we were 4-0 against Pitt and Nova; usually those are 4 good wins" or something like.

Guess what Stan, if those teams were as good as they normally are you wouldn't have gone 4-0 against them.

 

[BuffOrange]

I love that. Stan Heath said something like "we were 4-0 against Pitt and Nova; usually those are 4 good wins" or something like.

Guess what Stan, if those teams were as good as they normally are you wouldn't have gone 4-0 against them.

Exactly. They would've been 9-9 in conference instead of 12-6 and thus not even on the bubble.

 

[jncuse]

Tennessee loses 77-72 to Ole Miss. A game they really had to win.

But remember last year, USC, was a BCS that not many expected to get in, but got in based on top 50 record. Probably out, but keep the Vols in the discussion.

 

[jncuse]

Xavier down by 10 at the half against Dayton. Dayton and X will be about even after this... probably both just outside

 

[bpo57]

As jncuse already said there is 0% chance of Nevada getting in as an at-large. LBS would get the committee discussing (way moreso than Iona, imho) if they get bumped, but ultimately, they have zero Top 50 wins. To my recollection the only at-large team to get in with zero Top 50 wins was Air Force back in 2005-06.

Cheers,
Neil

How many top 50 wins do USF and SHU have?

 

[bpo57]

BPO, looks like our bet is coming down to it. Don't think either big payoff (10 or 7) is gonna hit.

I hear ya. Looks like a toin coss to me.

 

[bpo57]

As jncuse already said there is 0% chance of Nevada getting in as an at-large. LBS would get the committee discussing (way moreso than Iona, imho) if they get bumped, but ultimately, they have zero Top 50 wins. To my recollection the only at-large team to get in with zero Top 50 wins was Air Force back in 2005-06.

Cheers,
Neil

lol, not too much east coast bias, eh? You ignore SHU and USF's mediocre resume and yet ridicule that of Nevada. I hate the rpi but would just point out they have a rpi in the top 50. That would seem to indicate they have a bit better than zero chance. You go 13-1 in your league then you're going to get at least some consideration. They've won 23 of their last 25 with one of the losses a triple OT road loss.

 

[bpo57]

Xavier down by 10 at the half against Dayton. Dayton and X will be about even after this... probably both just outside

Looks like two at-large from the A10.

 

[jncuse]

Looks like two at-large from the A10.

I wouldn't count out three (Mass and St Bonnie could win)

But getting 2 at large is not bid stealing, That was the situation coming into today

 

[jncuse]

lol, not too much east coast bias, eh? You ignore SHU and USF's mediocre resume and yet ridicule that of Nevada. I hate the rpi but would just point out they have a rpi in the top 50. That would seem to indicate they have a bit better than zero chance. You go 13-1 in your league then you're going to get at least some consideration. They've won 23 of their last 25 with one of the losses a triple OT road loss.

While they will never state it, it is widely speculated that the committee has adjusted margin ranking in their back picket to help it seed some of these mid majors. Its a much better measure for comparison and assessment then RPI.

Furthermore, in discussing and comparing two teams they can basically bring up whatever the hell they want.

Not an issue for teams like Long Beach St and Drexel and keeps Iona in the dicussion. But Nevada's is awful. They are #103 in Ken Pom, and I sam sure any other margin system is pretty close to that.

 

[bpo57]

I wouldn't count out three (Mass and St Bonnie could win)

But getting 2 at large is not bid stealing, That was the situation coming into today

Never said it was bid stealing but you say that was the situation coming in to today. Who decided that? Xavier was a bubble team that has probably now moved off the bubble, taking a spot from somebody else. Their resume is better than Dayton's so by winning they improved the chances that the A10 gets three teams in.

 

[bpo57]

While they will never state it, the committee most certainly has adjusted margin ranking in their back picket to help it seed some of these mid majors.

Not an issue for teams like Long Beach St and Drexel and keeps Iona in the dicussion. But Nevada's is awful. They are #103 in Ken Pom.

So then you'd say Nevada's chances are basically zero of getting in?

 

[bpo57]

While they will never state it, it is widely speculated that the committee has adjusted margin ranking in their back picket to help it seed some of these mid majors. Its a much better measure for comparison and assessment then RPI.

Furthermore, in discussing and comparing two teams they can basically bring up whatever the hell they want.

Not an issue for teams like Long Beach St and Drexel and keeps Iona in the dicussion. But Nevada's is awful. They are #103 in Ken Pom, and I sam sure any other margin system is pretty close to that.

Their rpi coming into today was in the 40s and they lost to Iona by six at Iona.