Three BE bubble teams...

[bpo57]

WVa- Should definitely get in unless there is a rash of tournament upsets this weekend. Several quality OOC wins and lost several close games against quality BE teams. That road win against USF last week was large.

USF- one top 50 win. Did all of their damage against the weak sisters of the BE. 16 of their 19 wins came against teams with an rpi of 87 or below. Nothing meaningful OOC. Close call but I don't see them getting in. Would admit though that there grinding style might be effective in the NCAAs against so-so teams not used to playing that style.

SHU- 9-11 in the BE. Bad losses down the stretch to DePaul and RU. Essentially no quality road wins. Not too much to speak of OOC. 16 of their 20 wins came against teams with an rpi of 60 or lower. I would be surprised if they get a bid.

 

[FortyFourCT]

Based more on the eye test, I would say USF should be in.
WV is either the last one in or first one out, they are that close.
The Hall is out.

 

[bpo57]

Based more on the eye test, I would say USF should be in.
WV is either the last one in or first one out, they are that close.
The Hall is out.

I hear ya on the eye test but kinda hard to take USF over WVa when the latter accomplished a lot more OOC and also beat USF in their own building a week ago.

 

[MaxwellCuse]

USF failed to win a single game that I watched the Bulls play in this season; therefore based on my "eye test" (a faddish term I'm beginning to despise) they are out.

 

[pfister1]

I hate the unbalanced schedule. Love the day when you could look at the conference standings and see USF at 12-6 and WVa at 9-9 and make a pretty accurate determination that USF is the better team. Now, its like comparing those records is like a complete apples to oranges comparison. Who did you have to double up with, who did you have to play only at their place?

 

[CorduroyG]

i think usf is out, i dont think they look at conference record to compare teams right? if you look at their "overall body of work", i dont think they deserve to be in.

im sticking to what ive said since january, big east wont get more than 8. wvu and usf OUT!!!


edit: west virginia in, seton hall and usf OUT!!!

 

[HarrisonJBounel]

WVa- Should definitely get in unless there is a rash of tournament upsets this weekend. Several quality OOC wins and lost several close games against quality BE teams. That road win against USF last week was large.

USF- one top 50 win. Did all of their damage against the weak sisters of the BE. 16 of their 19 wins came against teams with an rpi of 87 or below. Nothing meaningful OOC. Close call but I don't see them getting in. Would admit though that there grinding style might be effective in the NCAAs against so-so teams not used to playing that style.

SHU- 9-11 in the BE. Bad losses down the stretch to DePaul and RU. Essentially no quality road wins. Not too much to speak of OOC. 16 of their 20 wins came against teams with an rpi of 60 or lower. I would be surprised if they get a bid.

Good analysis. If all 3 of WVU, USF, and SHU get in, that would give the BE 10. Lunardi still has all 3, thus 10 for the BE. He has SHU in the "Last Four In" as of last night.

I know it should be considered team by team, but I have a hard time believing the Committee will like the optics of having 10 BE teams, esp after all the BE flops last year (UConn notwithstanding). SHU is 9-11 in conference, 20-12 overall, with an RPI of 62, and I think they are out. IMHO.

 

[jncuse]

Just remember that Miss St had a brutal loss to Georgia High last night, and Northwstern blew it against Minnesota. Add Washington losing to Oregon St and Oregon losing to Colorado, and it was a good day for the Big East Bubble.

Texas though did have a huge neutral win over Iowa St that likely put them over the top. Texas was in all 25 submitted brackets today. I will also add that West Virginia, Colorado St, UConn are also on all 25 bracjets.

Let's look at the bracket matrix/

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Looking at only the Brackets that were updated after yesterday

LAST TEAMS IN (Not on 100% of Brackets, based on 25 brackets)

BYU - 24
Xavier - 24
South Florida - 19
Seton Hall - 19
Miami - 18
Washington - 16
Drexel - 14

LAST TEAMS OUT

Miss St - 12
Tennessee - 8
Iona - 5
NC ST - 5
Northwestern - 4
Dayton - 4
Oregon - 1
Oral Roberts - 1
Arizona - 1
Ole Miss - 1
Central Florida - 1

Potential bubble busters:

1. If Cal does not win the PAC-12, the PAC 12 would probably get an extra bid (although Washington could be the team knocked, I would be surprised if the regular season P12 champ was not tossed a bone. Chances are decent enoguh.

2. If Memphis does not win the CUSA title, the CUSA will get an extra bid. (and Southern Miss will not lose their bid). Memphis is playing great right now.

3. If Temple, St. Louis, or Xavier do not win the A-10. And if Dayton won the A-10 it may knock out Xavier. Chances are limited that it is someone else

4. A huge upset winner in the ACC, SEC, B10,

Based on that data, I think projecting more then one bubble buster at this point seems like the most reasonable call.

NC St, Tennessee, Dayton can still do damage on the Outside Looking in group.

But at the end of the day its tough to elimate 2 BET Schools.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I hope a team like Iona gets in before some like seton hall

 

[omniorange]

There are 10 teams fighting for 5 spots. This already assumes that Mountain West gets 4, West Coast gets 3, Missouri Valley gets 2, CUSA gets 2, Atlantic 10 gets 2, and California wins the Pac-12.

Alphabetically, they are:

Drexel
Miami
Mississippi State
North Carolina State
Northwestern
Seton Hall
South Florida
Tennessee
Washington
Xavier

You are a committee member rank your Top 5 from amongst those 10. That should get you an idea of how this will play out Sunday.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[SoBristol]

I get the arguments but believe USF gets in based on their last 10 games. Didn't have Collins for some of those early losses - he makes a big difference. They played us tough in the Dome and gave ND all they could handle.

 

[SUtyger]

Problem with USF is they were without 1 or 2 key players for a big chunk of their OOC games. The committee will keep that in mind. That said I think they make it into the tourney this year. I say 9 from the BE and Seton Hall will be the odd team out.

 

[bpo57]

Just remember that Miss St had a brutal loss to Georgia High last night, and Northwstern blew it against Minnesota. Add Washington losing to Oregon St and Oregon losing to Colorado, and it was a good day for the Big East Bubble.

Texas though did have a huge neutral win over Iowa St that likely put them over the top. Texas was in all 25 submitted brackets today. I will also add that West Virginia, Colorado St, UConn are also on all 25 bracjets.

Let's look at the bracket matrix/

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

Looking at only the Brackets that were updated after yesterday

LAST TEAMS IN (Not on 100% of Brackets, based on 25 brackets)

BYU - 24
Xavier - 24
South Florida - 19
Seton Hall - 19
Miami - 18
Washington - 16
Drexel - 14

LAST TEAMS OUT

Miss St - 12
Tennessee - 8
Iona - 5
NC ST - 5
Northwestern - 4
Dayton - 4
Oregon - 1
Oral Roberts - 1
Arizona - 1
Ole Miss - 1
Central Florida - 1

Potential bubble busters:

1. If Cal does not win the PAC-12, the PAC 12 would probably get an extra bid (although Washington could be the team knocked, I would be surprised if the regular season P12 champ was not tossed a bone. Chances are decent enoguh.

2. If Memphis does not win the CUSA title, the CUSA will get an extra bid. (and Southern Miss will not lose their bid). Memphis is playing great right now.

3. If Temple, St. Louis, or Xavier do not win the A-10. And if Dayton won the A-10 it may knock out Xavier. Chances are limited that it is someone else

4. A huge upset winner in the ACC, SEC, B10,

Based on that data, I think projecting more then one bubble buster at this point seems like the most reasonable call.

NC St, Tennessee, Dayton can still do damage on the Outside Looking in group.

But at the end of the day its tough to elimate 2 BET Schools.

I don't think it's that hard. NCState, Miami, Tennessee are all serious threats to SHU and USF. If we get a couple of bid stealers this weekend then they are in deep doo-doo.

 

[bpo57]

Problem with USF is they were without 1 or 2 key players for a big chunk of their OOC games. The committee will keep that in mind. That said I think they make it into the tourney this year. I say 9 from the BE and Seton Hall will be the odd team out.

I think it's more about which teams they played OOC rather than which players played.

 

[jncuse]

There are 10 teams fighting for 5 spots. This already assumes that Mountain West gets 4, West Coast gets 3, Missouri Valley gets 2, CUSA gets 2, Atlantic 10 gets 2, and California wins the Pac-12.

Alphabetically, they are:

Drexel
Miami
Mississippi State
North Carolina State
Northwestern
Seton Hall
South Florida
Tennessee
Washington
Xavier

You are a committee member rank your Top 5 from amongst those 10. That should get you an idea of how this will play out Sunday.

Cheers,
Neil

That pretty much nails it.

1. I would add Iona making it 11, and if Dayton wins today making it 12.

2. If no bubble busters, it would be six spots for the group above. I see you did not include BYU from my group which is a fair assumption. Assuming one bubble buster (most plausable scenario), its five spots.

3. Only three of the above teams can build on their resume at ths point - Miami, NC St, Xavier (and Dayton). Let's see what happens today with those teams.

But right now (assuming no bubble busters) I have:
Drexel
Washington
South Florida
Xavier
Miami
Iona

Iona would lose their spot to the first bubble buster.

 

[bpo57]

There are 10 teams fighting for 5 spots. This already assumes that Mountain West gets 4, West Coast gets 3, Missouri Valley gets 2, CUSA gets 2, Atlantic 10 gets 2, and California wins the Pac-12.

Alphabetically, they are:

Drexel
Miami
Mississippi State
North Carolina State
Northwestern
Seton Hall
South Florida
Tennessee
Washington
Xavier

You are a committee member rank your Top 5 from amongst those 10. That should get you an idea of how this will play out Sunday.

Cheers,
Neil

The one thing about your analysis is that it can very easily be disrupted by tournament action this weekend. I would also add Iona to that list.

 

[bpo57]

That pretty much nails it.

1. I would add Iona making it 11, and if Dayton wins today making it 12.

2. If no bubble busters, it would be six spots for the group above. I see you did not include BYU from my group which is a fair assumption. Assuming one bubble buster (most plausable scenario), its five spots.

3. Only three of the above teams can build on their resume at ths point - Miami, NC St, Xavier (and Dayton). Let's see what happens today with those teams.

But right now (assuming no bubble busters) I have:
Drexel
Washington
South Florida
Xavier
Miami
Iona

Iona would lose their spot to the first bubble buster.

Tennessee can improve on their standing, too.

 

[omniorange]

I don't think it's that hard. NCState, Miami, Tennessee are all serious threats to SHU and USF. If we get a couple of bid stealers this weekend then they are in deep doo-doo.

In my mind, Seton Hall is already out. They aren't taking Northwestern and since Seton Hall lost to Northwestern, they won't likely take the Pirates either.

I believe the only "bid steelers" out there is an unexpected A10 champ (not St. Louis or Xavier) or California getting upset in the Pac-12 (since they basically are the only Pac-12 team possibly deserving of an at-large) or NC State defeating Virginia tonight.

I think the Top 5 from my earlier list are (alpha) - Drexel, Miami, South Florida, Tennessee, and Xavier. So, if one of those three things happen then USF will be in a dog fight with Xavier for the final at-large spot. I actually believe the Bulls might win that since Xavier has not been the same team since the fight.

If two of those things happen then I believe both USF and Xavier will be out.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[omniorange]

The one thing about your analysis is that it can very easily be disrupted by tournament action this weekend. I would also add Iona to that list.

There is no way Iona will take a spot over USF as an at-large.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[omniorange]

Tennessee can improve on their standing, too.

Tennessee is probably the most undervalued of the "bubble teams", imho.

Cheers,
Neil

 

[jncuse]

Tennessee can improve on their standing, too.

Correct simply an oversight.

 

[jncuse]

I don't think it's that hard. NCState, Miami, Tennessee are all serious threats to SHU and USF. If we get a couple of bid stealers this weekend then they are in deep doo-doo.

But Miami is already "in" on that consolidated list. Based on that consolidated list they are not a bid stealer.

Of course the consolidated list is merely an easier way to see if I move somebody up, who do I move out. Obviously USF is hoping for them to lose.

 

[jncuse]

There is no way Iona will take a spot over USF as an at-large.

Cheers,
Neil

But what about an NC ST? I think Iona is fair to add, even if only because as the top smallish mid-major they are bound to get alot of discussion revolving around them. Perhaps by Sunday they are counted out, but they will be a team the committee talks alot about.

I do agree that Tennessee has the underrated resume, that has sort of snuck up on people. They can't afford to lose to Ole Miss today however,

 

[Knicks411]

BPO, looks like our bet is coming down to it. Don't think either big payoff (10 or 7) is gonna hit.

 

[CorduroyG]

where the hell is marsh? he has wet dreams about threads like this.

nevermind, hes probably writing a 1000 word analysis now of each bubble team's chances.

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