Tom Thibideau out as Knicks coach!

[Zelda Zonk]

Ehh that series was 3-1 before the Tatum injury.

2-1 with a Knicks lead in the 4th, but yes—point taken. Still, Celts had 'owned' the Knicks all season. Not a foregone conclusion.

 

[shandeezy7]

2-1 with a Knicks lead in the 4th, but yes—point taken. Still, Celts had 'owned' the Knicks all season. Not a foregone conclusion.

View attachment 252590

Yeah I was counting that game as over. And the Tatum-less Celtics did destroy the Knicks in game 5, but I don't think it's fair to say that they beat the Celtics because of the Tatum injury when they built a commanding lead in the series against a healthy Tatum. The bigger issue for the Celtics and why I think the Knicks were able to win that series was the health of Porzingis and Brown. Clearly neither were 100% and it showed.

 

[Melancer46]

I dont think it is just that, but even within the players he relied on there wasnt a lot of mixing and matching. This is a combo of stuff I stole from people and I looked up myself.

The knicks starting 5 played 2,550 possessions together this season (regular season and playoffs, non garbage time, per Cleaning the glass). They were barely positive (net rating of about 2.2). The second most common lineup was the Minnesota starting 5, they played 1,788 possessions together (net rating of +7.3). So he played a bad starting lineup 40% more than any other 5 man unit in the league.

If you go to cleaning the glass and look at the best 5 man lineups the Knicks had all season, one player appears in every one of the 5 best 5 man lineups the team had. It was Deuce McBride, who of course wasnt a starter.

Related to this, the guy refused to play a 5 out lineup and really weaponize the shooting ability of KAT. They played 383 possessions during the regular season with anything I would call 5 out spacing (most common lineup was Payne, McBride, Bridges, OG, and Towns). In those lineups they were a +7.3 with a 126.4 offensive rating.

To take it a step further, what I would consider the best version of their 5 out lineup (Deuce in for Hart) played 82 possessions all regular season. +5.5 with a 130.5 offensive rating. It played 16 possessions during the playoffs, +50 with a 175 offensive rating. (I dont want to get too wrapped up in the playoff stats, the sample is so small, they may have been in when there was fouling going on, etc).

The last one, during the regular season KAT and Brunson played 3925 possessions together. 85% of those possessions included Josh Hart! (Ok this is kind of related to the one above)

Kind of nitpicking here, but I had this argument with one of my other friends too: Thibs was technically running a 5-out offense pretty regularly. It's just that one of those 5 was Hart and teams essentially didn't care about him standing on the perimeter so it didn't really accomplish the main purpose of using 5-out offenses. The thing is though, that is more or less the case no matter what lineup you put out there; it's not like Hart is the worst shooter in the league or anything. He's a fairly willing shooter and makes his 3's at an acceptable-ish rate.

I don't know; I'm not entirely confident where the Knicks should go from here. Ultimately, they're a very good team but they're built around two stars that have the same severe weakness to their games; basically everyone that shares the court with Brunson and Towns have to be guys that can help cover for their defensive issues. It's hard to see them being surrounded by much better options on the wings than OG, Bridges, and Hart in terms of trying to account for those weaknesses. Maybe the idea is that you just kinda lean into the idea of just trying to be so good offensively that teams cannot keep up and therefore you maybe try to move some combination of OG/Bridges/Hart to get better offensive pieces on the court. I don't know. But if the plan is to simply keep the same core but bump McBride's minutes at the expense of Hart, I don't really see that moving the needle much if at all.

It seems to me that if they want to make a significant change, there's two reasonable paths:

1. Installing a new offensive system more predicated on ball movement/pushing tempo instead of just letting Brunson dribble the air out of the ball (the only player that held the ball longer per touch than Brunson this season was Zyon Pullin, who touched the ball 4 times all year lol).
2. Moving one or more of their wings for guys that are deadlier off the ball on the offensive end.

It's also entirely possible that they could just essentially run it back and win it all next year; at the end of the day, they were one of the best offensive teams in the league this season and they got pretty damn close this year.

 

[kirbivore]

Casell is the Eric Bieniemy of the NBA

Jay Wright is the Bill Cowher of basketball. Jay's loving life on TV, no chance he comes back to coach. It took about a decade of TV before Cowher's name stopped getting tossed around for coach openings in the NFL

 

[Knicks411]

Kind of nitpicking here, but I had this argument with one of my other friends too: Thibs was technically running a 5-out offense pretty regularly. It's just that one of those 5 was Hart and teams essentially didn't care about him standing on the perimeter so it didn't really accomplish the main purpose of using 5-out offenses. The thing is though, that is more or less the case no matter what lineup you put out there; it's not like Hart is the worst shooter in the league or anything. He's a fairly willing shooter and makes his 3's at an acceptable-ish rate.

Yeah that is basically what I mean. Roughly halfway into the season most teams started guarding Kat with a wing and sticking their center on Hart. Hart will take some threes (4.3 per 100 possessions, he made 33%, kinda meh) but based on how he was being treated by the defense he had the opportunity to take way more.

Deuce is the guy on the team most willing to shoot; he took 9.7 per 100 (10.1 last year) and made 37%. I think the offense would clearly be more dynamic with Deuce in for Hart (and based on what happened on the court, it was). The offense really struggled when the center could just ignore Hart

Kat's 3 point attempt rate also went down, in large because he was guarded by wings who are more comfortable on the perimeter.

I agree they are in a tough spot, the Kat/Brunson pairing may just be too weak defensively to win a title. But I think they need to do more to maximize the offensive ability of the group. They were 2 games from the finals (lets not talk about what probably would've happened in the finals) despite devoting thousands of possessions to a lineup that wasnt very good! (thats my positive spin)

 

[Newhouser]

I love the Knicks but I echo was Scalabrine said this AM - the Knicks are at their next level. The roster isn't talented enough to get further. A lineup/roster change is needed and they don't have a lot of wiggle room. I don't think Thibs is irreplaceable by any means but his replacement will be doing yeoman's work to get them back to the ECF next year unless changes are made.

 

[Melancer46]

Yeah that is basically what I mean. Roughly halfway into the season most teams started guarding Kat with a wing and sticking their center on Hart. Hart will take some threes (4.3 per 100 possessions, he made 33%, kinda meh) but based on how he was being treated by the defense he had the opportunity to take way more.

Deuce is the guy on the team most willing to shoot; he took 9.7 per 100 (10.1 last year) and made 37%. I think the offense would clearly be more dynamic with Deuce in for Hart (and based on what happened on the court, it was). The offense really struggled when the center could just ignore Hart

Kat's 3 point attempt rate also went down, in large because he was guarded by wings who are more comfortable on the perimeter.

I agree they are in a tough spot, the Kat/Brunson pairing may just be too weak defensively to win a title. But I think they need to do more to maximize the offensive ability of the group. They were 2 games from the finals (lets not talk about what probably would've happened in the finals) despite devoting thousands of possessions to a lineup that wasnt very good! (thats my positive spin)

Maybe inserting Deuce would have made the difference, but there's not all that much data to suggest it would have (unless you want to focus on the relatively small sample sizes in the playoffs this year, which, your mileage may vary).

If you look at all of the lineups that were used for at least 100 possessions this season, there are four lineups that include McBride and do not include Hart. Two of those were above average offenses and two were below average. There were 10 lineups that included Hart, and 8 of those 10 were above average. I'd also note that kinda interestingly, the Knicks had 3 lineups that were insanely elite and 2 lineups that were merely very very good offensively. 4 of the 5 included McBride, but 3 of those McBride lineups also included Hart in place of one of Bridges/OG. Also kinda interesting but Brunson was only part of 2 of those top 5 lineups lol. Also, both of the Knicks most-used lineups were well above-average offensively and both featured Hart. It was the defensive end where they were below-average.

 

[shandeezy7]

Maybe inserting Deuce would have made the difference, but there's not all that much data to suggest it would have (unless you want to focus on the relatively small sample sizes in the playoffs this year, which, your mileage may vary).

If you look at all of the lineups that were used for at least 100 possessions this season, there are four lineups that include McBride and do not include Hart. Two of those were above average offenses and two were below average. There were 10 lineups that included Hart, and 8 of those 10 were above average. I'd also note that kinda interestingly, the Knicks had 3 lineups that were insanely elite and 2 lineups that were merely very very good offensively. 4 of the 5 included McBride, but 3 of those McBride lineups also included Hart in place of one of Bridges/OG. Also kinda interesting but Brunson was only part of 2 of those top 5 lineups lol. Also, both of the Knicks most-used lineups were well above-average offensively and both featured Hart. It was the defensive end where they were below-average.

Brunson is great, but the offense is so stagnant when he's in there. Idk if it's his fault or the coach's fault or the other guys on the floor's fault, but everyone tends to just stand around and watch him dribble.

 

[Melancer46]

Brunson is great, but the offense is so stagnant when he's in there. Idk if it's his fault or the coach's fault or the other guys on the floor's fault, but everyone tends to just stand around and watch him dribble.

As I mentioned in my previous post, nobody in the league held the ball as much per touch as Brunson (with the exception of a guy that only touched the ball 4 times all year lol). I think it's obviously mostly on Brunson, but he also played that way all year and Thibs didn't do anything about it so he isn't blameless either.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I dont think it is just that, but even within the players he relied on there wasnt a lot of mixing and matching. This is a combo of stuff I stole from people and I looked up myself.

The knicks starting 5 played 2,550 possessions together this season (regular season and playoffs, non garbage time, per Cleaning the glass). They were barely positive (net rating of about 2.2). The second most common lineup was the Minnesota starting 5, they played 1,788 possessions together (net rating of +7.3). So he played a bad starting lineup 40% more than any other 5 man unit in the league.

If you go to cleaning the glass and look at the best 5 man lineups the Knicks had all season, one player appears in every one of the 5 best 5 man lineups the team had. It was Deuce McBride, who of course wasnt a starter.

Related to this, the guy refused to play a 5 out lineup and really weaponize the shooting ability of KAT. They played 383 possessions during the regular season with anything I would call 5 out spacing (most common lineup was Payne, McBride, Bridges, OG, and Towns). In those lineups they were a +7.3 with a 126.4 offensive rating.

To take it a step further, what I would consider the best version of their 5 out lineup (Deuce in for Hart) played 82 possessions all regular season. +5.5 with a 130.5 offensive rating. It played 16 possessions during the playoffs, +50 with a 175 offensive rating. (I dont want to get too wrapped up in the playoff stats, the sample is so small, they may have been in when there was fouling going on, etc).

The last one, during the regular season KAT and Brunson played 3925 possessions together. 85% of those possessions included Josh Hart! (Ok this is kind of related to the one above)

Yes, this is a terrific post. ESPN just posted an article last night or today, that the management just felt like they got outcoached throughout much of the playoffs, and Thibs didn't really maximize the roster.

'He got outcoached': Why the Knicks fired their most successful coach in decades

Despite back-to-back 50-win seasons, whispers about Tom Thibodeau's future in New York had percolated for months.

www.espn.com

 

[IthacaMatt]

I love the Knicks but I echo was Scalabrine said this AM - the Knicks are at their next level. The roster isn't talented enough to get further. A lineup/roster change is needed and they don't have a lot of wiggle room. I don't think Thibs is irreplaceable by any means but his replacement will be doing yeoman's work to get them back to the ECF next year unless changes are made.

Thibs is an old school coach who bases everything on effort.
His schemes were not up to the level of top tier strategic bench coaches.
He left KAT on the bench for a long stretch late in 1 game where they just couldn't score.

Bridges complained about too many minutes, and told Thibs he needs to use some of the guys on the bench, like Shamet, in particular. Josh Hart volunteered to go to the bench so that Thibs would play Mitchell Robinson more.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Rick Pitino doesn’t have to change his commute!

He spoke to the press yesterday saying he has "zero interest" because anything less than the Finals will be seen as a failure.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I agree they are in a tough spot, the Kat/Brunson pairing may just be too weak defensively to win a title. But I think they need to do more to maximize the offensive ability of the group. They were 2 games from the finals (lets not talk about what probably would've happened in the finals) despite devoting thousands of possessions to a lineup that wasnt very good! (thats my positive spin)

I think that there are a couple problems here. KAT and Brunson could both be adequate defenders in a different scheme. Don't have Brunson on the point of attack; have him cover the secondary ball handler, or weakest outside shooter.

Don't have KAT switching on all these high pick & rolls every game, when he doesn't have the lateral quickness to do it. Does Philly make Joel Embiid (when he's healthy) do what Thibs asked KAT tot do? Not so much.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Kind of nitpicking here, but I had this argument with one of my other friends too: Thibs was technically running a 5-out offense pretty regularly. It's just that one of those 5 was Hart and teams essentially didn't care about him standing on the perimeter so it didn't really accomplish the main purpose of using 5-out offenses. The thing is though, that is more or less the case no matter what lineup you put out there; it's not like Hart is the worst shooter in the league or anything. He's a fairly willing shooter and makes his 3's at an acceptable-ish rate.

I don't know; I'm not entirely confident where the Knicks should go from here. Ultimately, they're a very good team but they're built around two stars that have the same severe weakness to their games; basically everyone that shares the court with Brunson and Towns have to be guys that can help cover for their defensive issues. It's hard to see them being surrounded by much better options on the wings than OG, Bridges, and Hart in terms of trying to account for those weaknesses. Maybe the idea is that you just kinda lean into the idea of just trying to be so good offensively that teams cannot keep up and therefore you maybe try to move some combination of OG/Bridges/Hart to get better offensive pieces on the court. I don't know. But if the plan is to simply keep the same core but bump McBride's minutes at the expense of Hart, I don't really see that moving the needle much if at all.

It seems to me that if they want to make a significant change, there's two reasonable paths:

1. Installing a new offensive system more predicated on ball movement/pushing tempo instead of just letting Brunson dribble the air out of the ball (the only player that held the ball longer per touch than Brunson this season was Zyon Pullin, who touched the ball 4 times all year lol).
2. Moving one or more of their wings for guys that are deadlier off the ball on the offensive end.

It's also entirely possible that they could just essentially run it back and win it all next year; at the end of the day, they were one of the best offensive teams in the league this season and they got pretty damn close this year.

They need another wing scorer and another big for the bench. They need some new schemes on offense and defense, too. They are too damn predictable.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Jason Kidd as a potential candidate. I would be pretty happy with that.

 

[jordville]

Knicks have asked for permission to interview three current head coaches and have been denied all three.

 

[Melancer46]

Knicks have asked for permission to interview three current head coaches and have been denied all three.

Kidd is one thing, but I love that the Knicks had even the slightest hope that Houston and Minnesota would just be like "Sure man, just take our good coach please"

 

[Newhouser]

Clearly the Knicks are not legitimately pursuing coach's that are under contract but what is the strategy? Get every name leaked a raise? Further show they have no plan? The franchise is so interesting to root for and try to understand.

 

[jordville]

Another one denied…

 

[shandeezy7]

Lol

 

[jordville]

And ATL denied them too…

 

[Cusefan0307]

And ATL denied them too…

If this was really the plan they were super stupid.

 

[orange79]

I have it on good authority that the Knicks asked the Knicks if they could interview Tom Thibodeau, but the Knicks refused.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Knicks have asked for permission to interview three current head coaches and have been denied all three.

I'm so glad they had a plan in place before they fired him! /s/

 

[kirbivore]

Knicks coaching search