Tournament Resumes YTD / Selection Show

[JeremyCuse]

to be honest kinda feel for cuse is win saturday or it’s over. Cause ya lose saturday vs unc then ur 4th seed n take on ND who yes we beat but haven’t been great against them n their gonna be looking for revenge. Also i see it as duke last year happing. Beat them in regular season pretty good to lose to them in acc tounry. Losing 4 straight games to end season even vs top oppts n being on bubble reads big trouble. Yes they lose saturday still can win games in acc to help but just realistically who they would play if lose saturday just doesn’t bow well. Think it’s desperate time n HAVE to absolutely HAVE to win saturday.

Also worry all this they stink outside dome n back in dome so will play better is gonna jinx us. I truely hope i’m wrong n cuse wins n even wins out. But i’d be flat out lying to say if my confidence isn’t at all time low right now. And gonna be another long long long off season before lax comes back next year to hopefully take bad taste out of mouth. Please orange prove my feelings wrong I DARE YOU! I triple DOG DARE you.

I don't necessarily disagree that a loss on Saturday might be the final nail but keep in mind Duke does need to beat UVA on Sat for SU to fall to the 4th seed. If UVA wins SU would be the 3 seed and would play UNC again.

 

[FloridaCuse]

Someone who has run the simulations of the remaining games believes that even if we lose Saturday and in the Semis next week there is still a very high likelihood of making the NCAAT.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

2/ Duke vs Virginia: This is the day's biggest bubble game. Blue Devils' tourney chances jump from 65.5% to 97.8% with a win - a massive 32.3% swing. Must-win situation for Duke.

3/ Michigan vs Rutgers (B1G tournament): Michigan absolutely needs this victory to stay alive. A win would move their tournament probability to 23.7%. Loss eliminates them completely. Their at-large bid chances remain minimal regardless.

4/ Harvard vs Brown: Critical Ivy matchup with Harvard's tournament hopes hanging in balance. Victory pushes Crimson to 62.7% likelihood (from 39.6%).

5/ Syracuse vs North Carolina: Both teams are in solid position can (mostly) lock up a berth with a win today. Syracuse improves from 86.6% to 99.6% with victory, while UNC would see their tournament probability drop to 92% if they lose today.

6/ Notre Dame vs Penn: Fighting Irish would fall to 88.7% with a loss but can (almost) lock in their bid (99.6%) with a win.

 

[wgdsr]

2/ Duke vs Virginia: This is the day's biggest bubble game. Blue Devils' tourney chances jump from 65.5% to 97.8% with a win - a massive 32.3% swing. Must-win situation for Duke.

3/ Michigan vs Rutgers (B1G tournament): Michigan absolutely needs this victory to stay alive. A win would move their tournament probability to 23.7%. Loss eliminates them completely. Their at-large bid chances remain minimal regardless.

4/ Harvard vs Brown: Critical Ivy matchup with Harvard's tournament hopes hanging in balance. Victory pushes Crimson to 62.7% likelihood (from 39.6%).

5/ Syracuse vs North Carolina: Both teams are in solid position can (mostly) lock up a berth with a win today. Syracuse improves from 86.6% to 99.6% with victory, while UNC would see their tournament probability drop to 92% if they lose today.

6/ Notre Dame vs Penn: Fighting Irish would fall to 88.7% with a loss but can (almost) lock in their bid (99.6%) with a win.

kudos to laxref and others that run this stuff.
those acc probabilities look awful high, all but nd. bid stealing is still in play. & michigan with even 2 wins?
has: all losses essentially to top 10 teams.
1 top 5 win
1 top 10 win
1 top 15 ish win
possibly 2 top 20s depending on how rutgers finishes. they are now within 1/10,000 with dartmouth, hoo has cornell today.

 

[Powellfan]

They have SU on the road in the opening round along with Duke and Harvard.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

 

[NineOneSeven]

Is next game a win and win? Basically must win?

 

[JeremyCuse]

Is next game a win and win? Basically must win?

Pretty close to it. There's still a path with a loss but you'd much rather win

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Is next game a win and win? Basically must win?

Win = good.

2 wins = very good.

4 game losing streak = bad.

We're talking drinking Jobu's rum bad.

 

[FloridaCuse]

Is next game a win and win? Basically must win?

Could depend on the outcome of the tournaments of other conferences - Big 10, Ivy, Patriot & Atlantic 10. If any bid stealers (e.g. Rutgers, Yale) win the AQ the bubble will shrink.

 

[FloridaCuse]

Win = good.

2 wins = very good.

4 game losing streak = bad.

We're talking drinking Jobu's rum bad.

But would it be new coach bad?

 

[OrangeXtreme]

But would it be new coach bad?

Someone's head will end up on a pike.

Of course, we'll just throw it out of bounds.

 

[Powellfan]

Is next game a win and win? Basically must win?

It all depends on what other teams do. If they lose against Notre Dame, then I think they will be the last team in. There is basically no bubble right now, so they are compeiting against bid stealers.

Basically it would be down to teams like Yale from the Ivy, Rutgers from the Big Ten, or any non-Richmond team from the A-10 winning their conference tournament. Army I am not so sure about. I beleive SU has better numbers than the Black Knights, but if the committee chose a two loss Army over the Orange on a four game losing streak, I don't think anyone could fault them.

Seems unlikely, but it also seems like every year there is a "bid thief". Certinaly don't want to leave these things to chance.

 

[FloridaCuse]

 

[Powellfan]

All things considered not a bad draw for the Orange if this fell into place. Now what they did with it is another matter.

 

[orange79]

All things considered not a bad draw for the Orange if this fell into place. Now what they did with it is another matter.

5 flights???!!!???


Live look-in at the committee:

 

[nyclax]

All things considered not a bad draw for the Orange if this fell into place. Now what they did with it is another matter.

if cuse gets in they almost certainly will be headed to OSU or PSU since the committee wont send them to unc, duke, or notre dame... there is a small chance they could get sent to cornell...

 

[cusefan88]

if cuse gets in they almost certainly will be headed to OSU or PSU since the committee wont send them to unc, duke, or notre dame... there is a small chance they could get sent to cornell...

I don't know much about the broader landscape of college lacrosse but in my head, Syracuse is always better than OSU or PSU in Lax.

 

[tbonezone]

there is a small chance they could get sent to cornell...

i like it. knock off #1 seed you get their path moving forward. and it's local.

 

[wgdsr]

i like it. knock off #1 seed you get their path moving forward. and it's local.

only way they'd get sent to cornell is if cornell dropped, it wouldn't be the 1 or 2 seed's path. they get play-in winners.

 

[DMVCuseLax]

if cuse gets in they almost certainly will be headed to OSU or PSU since the committee wont send them to unc, duke, or notre dame... there is a small chance they could get sent to cornell...

How accurate has Mark been in the past seasons?

 

[Powellfan]

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[Powellfan]

How accurate has Mark been in the past seasons?

No one who does this is ever 100%. The issue is the committee picks and chooses what criteria they want to focus more or less on in a given year, and for people like Mark that’s impossible to know. I do appreciate the insight and background they give, it’s a lot better than what the committee provides at the end of their process.

With the way the bracket is set up geographically, and most of the seeded teams being close to each other, I’d expect some real schadenfreude from the committee this year.

 

[JeremyCuse]

You never want to say never but it's hard to see how Yale or RU could actually win their conf tourney's. For example Yale just got absolutely blasted by Princeton and as good as Princeton is Cornell is as good or better in pretty much every aspect save for maybe goalie play and that's debatable. If your telling me this years version of Yale is going to knock off Cornell and then most likely a Princeton team it just lost by 10+ to a few days apart they deserve to knock out SU. Again this Yale team just lost to Albany a few weeks ago.

I give Rutgers a little bit more of a shot because I could see them actually beating Ohio State. Ohio State has played very well this year but that offense still isn't great. With Rutgers ability to win draws and their defense I could see them winning a close game. Their problem is the championship game. There either getting a Penn State team they don't match up well at all with or a Maryland team that they would have to beat for the 2nd time this year. They should pray Penn State wins because Tillman is not losing to Rutgers 2 times in the same year. I would be beyond shocked.