Tracking the Bracket Matrix throughout the Regular Season

[jncuse]

This is going to be a major issue on selection sunday, I think. I'm speaking from a macro POV, not necessarily for Cuse. But someone is going to make it because they have X quad one wins and another team has X-1 or something, and there's going to be no correcting for the strength of those wins.

Probably not an issue.

As I said above, that "trickery" may occur for teams that are in the middle and clearly in, and the process is largely members sitting at their computers ranking a random group of teams over and over for a few hours. That is how they seed the middle.

But when it comes down to the bubble they go in depth. So elite wins will get recognized.

At the same time beating a team that is a 10 seed or a #1 seed in the NIT will basically be valued the same. There is really no difference in quality amongst those teams. IMO.

 

[20Plus]

Winning results for SU

Won- Mississippi State over Texas A&M
Won-West Virginia over Baylor
Won-Mississippi over Missouri
Won-Kentucky is a higher projected team then Arkansas so it is easier for ARK to drop off

Losing results
Loss- Boston College over North Carolina State
Loss-Indiana lost Nebraska

Push -
Creighton over butler
Butler won but as the home team I think that might be better

Any disagreements Jn Cuse?

 

[pearl31]

Won- Mississippi State over Texas A&M

That was not the preferred result for us.

 

[Knicks411]

Probably not an issue.

As I said above, that "trickery" may occur for teams that are in the middle and clearly in, and the process is largely members sitting at their computers ranking a random group of teams over and over for a few hours. That is how they seed the middle.

But when it comes down to the bubble they go in depth. So elite wins will get recognized.

At the same time beating a team that is a 10 seed or a #1 seed in the NIT will basically be valued the same. There is really no difference in quality amongst those teams. IMO.

I hope you're right, I'm a little skeptical.

 

[jdubs30]

Winning results for SU

Won- Mississippi State over Texas A&M
Won-West Virginia over Baylor
Won-Mississippi over Missouri
Won-Kentucky is a higher projected team then Arkansas so it is easier for ARK to drop off

Losing results
Loss- Boston College over North Carolina State
Loss-Indiana lost Nebraska

Push -
Creighton over butler
Butler won but as the home team I think that might be better

Any disagreements Jn Cuse?

I think Butler winning was good. They are probably in as of now, but Creighton getting a road win @Butler could have been huge for them.

I didn't dig into the numbers, but I'd also move MissSt over A&M to the "Push" category. I know MissSt did nothing OOC, but they'll end up with 20+ wins in the SEC, so that'll probably be enough. A&M has dealt with a lot of injuries and suspensions - but they have the talent to make a legit run at an at-large spot - losing at home tonight does them no favors.

Think you got the rest right - Nebraska's win last night doesn't do much overall - and I'm not sure it would have been a bad loss either. Kentucky/Arkansas will both most likely end up in anyway as well.

Bad loss for Missouri - that's the worst loss of the night out of all bubble teams.

 

[jdubs30]

BTW, we win tonight - I think we jump over 4 teams or so. That will firmly put us "Safely in for now" category.

 

[MSOrange]

BTW, we win tonight - I think we jump over 4 teams or so. That will firmly put us "Safely in for now" category.

Very much agree if we win tonight. However the more I read about the game, the less I like the matchup. Originally, I liked our chances tonight more than at Duke. Now I'm not so sure.

 

[orangenirvana]

The Buffalo win would have likely never been viewed as a top class win anyway.

For the last few teams on the bubble they really dig deep into the individual wins. A Buffalo win would have helped if we were a middle seed and they don't really dig beyond the standard metrics. Middle seeds are largely a computer process, where a small random group is provided with metrics, and individual members rank them... and this process is repeated over and over until a ranking is generated.

They don't spend much time on the middle lines, but when it comes down to the last few spots it's a much more critical view of the results.

Hopefully you're right but I'm afraid you may be giving the committee too much credit.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

jncuse -- thanks again for your work in this running thread. i have really enjoyed this the past few years. in 15-16 when you were bullish on SU's tourney chances, and 16-17 when you were correctly more bearish. and thanks to other regulars in here posting their comments, analysis, and running remarks about bubble-related games.

 

[20Plus]

Such a small margin between a 5 seed and a bubble

 

[rrlbees]

Lose at Duke but then beat BC and Clemson, get 1 win in the ACCT and we get in IMO. Think that’s 21-12, 10-10.

 

[pearl31]

bah no help from Colorado tonight

 

[SoBeCuse]

Lose at Duke but then beat BC and Clemson, get 1 win in the ACCT and we get in IMO. Think that’s 21-12, 10-10.

Possibly. My only concern is not having really any signature/top Quadrant win. Louisville is toast and will miss the dance IMO. Clemson is sliding though still solid. Miami is barely hanging on and can’t afford anymore losses and a first round ACCT loss. We wouldn’t get an opportunity for a big win until 2nd game of ACCT, IMO.

 

[pearl31]

c'mon Utes 'n' Cardinal!!

 

[Nicknack]

We beat bc on the road and take care of a struggling clemson team at home... 9-9 - I still like our chances. We're playing with house money at dook yet it wouldn't surprise me if we beat them. That kind of year.

 

[pearl31]

 

[jncuse]

Hopefully you're right but I'm afraid you may be giving the committee too much credit.

I did not state my prior point well -- I am certainly concerned about our lack of quality wins. But I never thought that Buffalo would help us in that regard whether they were Q1 or Q2.

 

[jncuse]

Such a small margin between a 5 seed and a bubble

6 seeds right now per Matrix are Houston, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona St. As you say not much difference. I would say 2-3 weeks ago Houston was on the outside of the bubble -- and despite being in the American have moved may up with a 5 game win streak.

 

[jncuse]

This was the matrix at the start of the week. No time for a schedule this week, but as this set of games (Mon-Thurs) is done let's see how the group did

1. Overall there as probably 3 teams that had a good result (Quad 1 or Quad 2 Win). Virginia Tech, Miami, Kansas St. and USC. The rest of the wins were just Quad 3 and Quad 4 wins.

2. Many bubble teams blew Quad 1 chances this week. Bubble teams were 2-8 in quad 1 games. That is terrible. We are not alone.

3. There has not been that much pressure from below. As noted, only 1 team below the line won either a Quad 1 or a Quad 2 game. There were 3 teams starting the week that were getting quite a bit of attention on the matrix yet were outside. Those team went 1-2.

So overall the week could have went worse. If we can get something similar this weekend, we won't be that much below the line after losing at Duke.

St. Mary's vs Pepperdine (Quad 4) - Winning
Virginia Tech vs Clemson (Quad 1) - WIN
Miami at Notre Dame (Quad 1) - WIN
Providence vs Seton Hall (Quad 1) - LOSS
Texas at Kansas St (Quad 1) - LOSS
NC St vs Boston College (Quad 3) - WIN
Kansas St vs Texas (Quad 2) - WIN
UCLA at Utah (Quad 1) - LOSING
St Bonaventure vs Duquesne (Quad 4) - WIN
Baylor vs West Virginia (Quad 1) - LOSS
Syracuse vs UNC (Quad 1) - LOSS
------In/out Line------------
Louisville 16 at Duke (Quad 1) - LOSS
USC at Colorado (Quad 2) - WIN
Washington at Stanford (Quad 2) - LOSS
Nebraska vs Indiana (Quad 3) - WIN
Penn St vs Michigan (Quad 1) - LOSS
LSU vs Vanderbilt (Quad 3) - WIN
Marquette vs St. John's (Quad 3) - WIN
Western Kentucky vs Charlotte (Quad 4) - WIN
Temple vs Houston (Quad 1) - LOSS
Boise St vs Coloado St (Quad 3) - WIN

 

[20Plus]

I don’t believe we are losing to duke

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Lose at Duke but then beat BC and Clemson, get 1 win in the ACCT and we get in IMO. Think that’s 21-12, 10-10.

I was thinking the exact same thing. Hopefully twenty one will be the magic number.

 

[jncuse]

Looking at some of these mid-majors.

Middle Tennessee St.
- CUSA 14-1
- RPI #23,
- KP #49
- Q1: 3-3

Their 3 quad one wins are at #71 Murray St, #72 Old Dominion, and at #61 Western Kentucky. This is where the new metrics help a team, although not sure how those 3 wins hold up if they were an-large. Hopefully, they lose one of their final 3 games before the CUSA tourney. Because if they win out, I think might very well steal a bid.

 

[pearl31]

If we can get something similar this weekend, we won't be that much below the line after losing at Duke.

actually I'd say we might not be below the line at all if we lose to Duke, depending of course on what other teams do

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Good results from pac 12 tonight

 

[pearl31]

pac12 was good to us tonight