This is for the “just let Notre Dame go” faction and their brethren, “the SEC is just going to gobble up the ACC anyhow” gang.
On the contrary, the SEC wants the ACC to survive. It is true. Here is why:
If the ACC were compromised or breaking up, Notre Dame would (at least for a few minutes) become a free agent.
ND would never join the SEC. Many reasons. Too many to list, but nothing more obvious than the academic disconnect. Plus, the Irish rarely beat SEC teams.
The SEC believes that in the end, they are better than the B10 on the field and they also want to own the broadcast rights bucket. It seems that the B10 might get more than the SEC in the coming years. Time will tell, but that race is relatively close.
If ND found its way to the B10, the broadcast rights would flip and the B10 (aka FOX) would become the Big Daddy. They’d be not only winning, but in a dominating fashion.
So, with that in mind, the SEC/ESPN will do whatever it has to do (which in this case is do nothing) to keep ND in the ACC. This also means that ND will play all its ACC road games on ABC/ESPN/Disney (and not on Fox). This is important.
If ND were a free agent for a few minutes, they’d realize that they cannot be a independent program like they were for most of their history. Who would they play? They’d have serious issues lining up 12 games.
So if the ACC were hypothetical broken up, ND very likely not find any sympathetic ACC teams to play, as the Irish always had the ability to save the ACC. I mean you have to assume most or all of the (now former) ACC schools would hold a grudge or be too busy with their new B10 lovers to find time to schedule ND (most especially in the middle of the season).
Beyond that, the Irish to the SEC notion is a non starter (as stated above), the ND to the PAC 10/12 is a “no go,” if only due to geography (this USC/UCLA thing is bat-ship crazy and ND is not that dumb). And the Big 12 … well, they are sort of a sad bunch right now.
That leaves the B10 as the lone viable option for the Irish.
And ND, they’d bite the bullet and take it, justifying it to themselves that they’re now getting $100M per year. One unlikely caveat is that the Irish would spurn the B10 if somehow the new CFB paradigm does not include football players attending class. That seems to be possible, but more likely down the road.
So, not only are Clemson, FSU and Miami redundant markets for the SEC (and that is a no-no), the SEC won’t touch those schools out of fear of forcing ND into the bed of the ultra-rich and super-horny B10, which just got a LA-infused boob job and has (for the last ~40 years) had its eyes on ND.
If the B10 consummated its relationship with the Irish, the SEC would lose their market leverage as the undesputed “biggest and baddest” mantle in the college football land. (How can “it just mean more?” when the B10 earns so much more revenue?)
The longer term worry for SU, and Alsacs alluded to this, is the B10 (remember, this is actually FOX) poaching these ACC schools, all of which have traits beyond football that fit the B10 in concept (listed in no particular order): FSU, Miami, Clemson, UNC, UVa and maybe (but doubtful) Georgia Tech.
Morals of the story:
1) Notre Dame is going to remain an independent that plays five ACC football games annually while docking their hoops and Olympic sports in the safe harbor that is the ACC.
2) SU and the ACC will be fine and Phillips is doing well to partner up in some form or fashion with the PAC 10/12. He cannot sit idle and it does not appear that he is. This “loose partnership” won’t solve the ACC’s revenue disparity conundrum, but it will whittle away at it, and most importantly, assert the ACC as the definitive No. 3 conference.
3) This’ll make ESPN happy, as they’ll continue to own a super majority in the FBS college football space.