USC and UCLA to the Big Ten

[Delmar]

The bigger story isn't realignment, it's the end of the NCAA. The ACC and Syracuse specifically won't know their fate until after the axe falls on Indianapolis.

 

[baggerbob]

This is exactly why Phillips (and perhaps Swarbrick) should have a mid-week call with the ASU, Oregon/Phil Knight, Washington and either 1/Cal, 2/Colorado, 3/Arizona.

The more I think about it, I think Notre Dame is going to sit still for a while. They are nothing if not measured. Always have been and that inactivity has had a important role in where they are today, which is a ridiculous place of strength. They did not jump in the 1980s. Not in ‘99. Not when Nebraska joined.

Why make a decision this week or this month or this year when the same decision can be made to in 2023 when they can leverage the end of the B10 current TV deal (I think that is the timing, if not, my apologies)?

In the interim, they can sit and watch. How do OU and Texas integrate in the SEC. How are USC and UCLA treated in their waning days as a member of the PAC 12. Where does Stanford land. Washington, ASU, etc. Does Clemson or FSU quiver?

The only caveat here is that I am relatively sure that the next phase of Notre Dame football and athletics will be orchestrated by Jack Swarbrick, who is not a spring chicken. He’s 68. I severely doubt he is going to hand the ball off to another AD who is coming in off the bench cold.

The ACC should not be sitting around idly in the coming weeks. And ESPN can be/should be an asset in this. If they help Phillips get to 20 (adding Stanford, ASU, Oregon, WAshington, +1) then ESPN can assert itself as the dominant figure in college sports. Yes, over Fox, who could not match up even with the Bruins and Trojans on board. At that point, ESPN would have flags planted on both coasts (sans LA) and the prime time, fertile real estate in the southeast, including Texas. They’d have the first and third most-powerful conferences in the SEC and the ACC, 35+ major universities and the B10 would be landlocked. Match up the markets. It is not close:

ACC: Boston/New England, Charlotte, Raleigh/Durham, Atlanta, Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami/Lauderdale/West Palm, Orlando, Birmingham, New Orleans, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, OK City, KC, Nashville, Phoenix, Bay Area, Portland, Seattle, (maybe) Denver, Louisville, Norfolk, Buffalo/Rochester/Syracuse/Albany, Providence.
B10: Chicago, LA, San Diego, Twin Cities, Detroit, Columbus, Indianapolis, Philly, Baltimore, Cleveland, New Jersey, Milwaukee, Omaha, Vegas.
Shared/Split: NYC, St Louis, Pittsburgh, DC, Cincinnati.

They’d also have a great foothold on the basketball front (UK, Duke, UNC, SU, UVa, Texas, Florida) which is absolutely important, contrary to what you might be reading

And ND would be able to join either the SEC or ACC whenever they were ready.

Nice thought but ESPN doesn't want to help the ACC survive. Everything they have done is for the SEC.

 

[Chris02M]

Rutgers and Maryland only paid for their inclusion with cable boxes.

UCLA and USC will bring cable boxes from LA plus actual brand appeal to the Big Ten.

USC-Michigan, USC-Ohio State, UCLA-Penn State, UCLA-Wisconsin is very valuable content.

Rutgers and Maryland don’t bring that.
UCLA and USC aren’t bringing just their market which is the second biggest in the nation and unlike Rutgers in NYC, UCLA and USC do have juice in LA.

USC and UCLA will bring in a lot of revenue in this TV deal.
It’s whole new window for TV with games in 3 time zones now.

The Big Ten will expand to 16 teams when the addition of USC and UCLA becomes official in 2024. The conference’s $1 billion-a year television deal will presumably be shared equally among the members.

Thompson said the Big Ten’s decision to add two Los Angeles-based universities was rooted in a simple math equation. The 14 existing conference members know they’ll receive approximately $71.4 million per university under the new Fox deal. Adding two more partners only made sense if they could generate a minimum of $143 million in additional distributable revenue.

“To get there you could assume that the bulk of the 5.2 million pay TV homes in LA, San Diego, Palm Springs and Santa Barbara become inner-market Big Ten Network subscribers,” he said. “That will add significant affiliate revenue for the network.”

Adding Southern California to the portfolio increases the Big Ten’s core TV households by 25 percent. The result is additional advertising revenue for the Big Ten Network, Fox Broadcast Network and FS1 as well.

Said Thompson: “That should all be enough to convince Fox that the additional rights fees are worthwhile.”

some of the added media rights are going to have to subsidize the added travel expenses

 

[TheCusian]

Nice thought but ESPN doesn't want to help the ACC survive. Everything they have done is for the SEC.

I think this is overstated. They don’t want to tank an asset completely.

 

[SU94]

Nice thought but ESPN doesn't want to help the ACC survive. Everything they have done is for the SEC.

Perhaps. Not being dismissive here, but I don’t sense that the SEC wants a West Coast flank. ASU, Stanford, Oregon, Washington mean little/nothing to them (it seems).

That, however, is very much NOT true for ESPN, which needs those 4-5 schools on the Left Coast to be two things: Non B10/Fox and, conversely, ESPN owned. That is best accomplished by forming a conference that bookends both coasts. The ACC can offer that and tip the scales for ESPN > Fox as I stated in a post above.

Phillips needs to think big to maximize the odds of the ACC to survive.

 

[tep624]

Perhaps. Not being dismissive here, but I don’t sense that the SEC wants a West Coast flank. ASU, Stanford, Oregon, Washington mean little/nothing to them (it seems).

That, however, is very much NOT true for ESPN, which needs those 4-5 schools on the Left Coast to be two things: Non B10/Fox and, conversely, ESPN owned. That is best accomplished by forming a conference that bookends both coasts. The ACC can offer that and tip the scales for ESPN > Fox as I stated in a post above.

Phillips needs to think big to maximize the odds of the ACC to survive.

I think this is the only option. Beat the SEC/B1G to the larger size mega conference model and develop a national conference. But I doubt that happens unfortunately. There is value in what remains of the Pac 12 and you could even layer in some G5 schools if you think outside the box.

 

[elimunelson]

Few questions I have:

1 what triggers the end of the NCAA? The super conferences will want to legislate themselves. Feel like that is the time line

2 is the NCAA IP, if it’s destroyed, purchased by the conferences so they can retain the hoops tournament and infrastructure?

3 Syracuse will remain viable until we know when the NCAA is disbanded. I think our only shot is they reopen the playoff talks and ultimately we get to 12 teams and these super leagues get 5 teams each and remaining teams retain 2 or something. Or they go back to the bowl system and have a super bowl esque btw the big conferences

 

[Alsacs]

Perhaps. Not being dismissive here, but I don’t sense that the SEC wants a West Coast flank. ASU, Stanford, Oregon, Washington mean little/nothing to them (it seems).

That, however, is very much NOT true for ESPN, which needs those 4-5 schools on the Left Coast to be two things: Non B10/Fox and, conversely, ESPN owned. That is best accomplished by forming a conference that bookends both coasts. The ACC can offer that and tip the scales for ESPN > Fox as I stated in a post above.

Phillips needs to think big to maximize the odds of the ACC to survive.

Adding Pac-12 schools to an existing ACC doesn’t help the ACC.

The only way for survival to be real would be the 24 schools from the PAC-10 and ACC have a meeting where they could negotiate to dissolve their current conferences and reformat as one new conference but again this alliance would be vulnerable to poaching so it wouldn’t happen as the gamble for the ACC schools would be losing what they currently have.

It’s not going to happen. The ACC is stuck.

The PAC-12 will likely be done fairly soon Arizona/Arizona State/Utah/Colorado to a 16 team Big XII makes sense.
Put BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor on one side and Kansas/Kansas State/UCF/Cincinnati/West Virginia/Iowa State/Oklahoma State/TCU on another or pods.

Arizona State
Arizona
Utah
BYU

Colorado
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

TCU
Houston
Baylor
Texas Tech

Iowa State
UCF
Cincinnati
West Virginia

This conference won’t get major bucks but enough to be decent.

 

[WoadBlue]

I think this is overstated. They don’t want to tank an asset completely.

But ESPN is run by the kind of Disney folks who think like Gordon Gekko in Wall Street: they see it as a fun and extremely profitable to take over something to break it up and then use the pieces as they wish. ESPN may want to deloiver what it sees as the most valuable parts of the ACC to the SEC.

 

[CousCuse]

Adding Pac-12 schools to an existing ACC doesn’t help the ACC.

The only way for survival to be real would be the 24 schools from the PAC-10 and ACC have a meeting where they could negotiate to dissolve their current conferences and reformat as one new conference but again this alliance would be vulnerable to poaching so it wouldn’t happen as the gamble for the ACC schools would be losing what they currently have.

It’s not going to happen. The ACC is stuck.

The PAC-12 will likely be done fairly soon Arizona/Arizona State/Utah/Colorado to a 16 team Big XII makes sense.
Put BYU, Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor on one side and Kansas/Kansas State/UCF/Cincinnati/West Virginia/Iowa State/Oklahoma State/TCU on another or pods.

Arizona State
Arizona
Utah
BYU

Colorado
Kansas
Kansas State
Oklahoma State

TCU
Houston
Baylor
Texas Tech

Iowa State
UCF
Cincinnati
West Virginia

This conference won’t get major bucks but enough to be decent.

The billion dollar question right now is what is Notre Dame going to do?

 

[CousCuse]

But ESPN is run by the kind of Disney folks who think like Gordon Gekko in Wall Street: they see it as a fun and extremely profitable to take over something to break it up and then use the pieces as they wish. ESPN may want to deloiver what it sees as the most valuable parts of the ACC to the SEC.

Does the ACC have any independent decision making ability at all? Are they owned outright by ESPN?

 

[baggerbob]

Does the ACC have any independent decision making ability at all? Are they owned outright by ESPN?

No, and yes Swofford saw to that. The only good programming on the ACC network got cancelled. All the other
shows are second rate, as if put on by a bunch of college kids.
The football and basketball programming is second rate.

 

[Alsacs]

The billion dollar question right now is what is Notre Dame going to do?

It’s obvious ND will push for the status quo as long as they can and then take their paycheck.

It wouldn’t be shocking me if they are negotiating with SEC/ESPN for the best possible deal.

They don’t want to join the Big Ten but it’s inevitable unless they join the SEC and all this stuff is happening now.

ND will make a decision in the next couple of months.

I think Oregon and Washington are in bigtime trouble.
They want a lifeline into the Big Ten that I am not sure is going to be made available to them.

They won’t bring in enough revenue to pay for their own inclusion.
Notre Dame and North Carolina are the only schools left who can bring 1 school of their choice with them wherever they would go.

Notre Dame is bigger than North Carolina though:

 

[CousCuse]

It’s obvious ND will push for the status quo as long as they can and then take their paycheck.

It wouldn’t be shocking me if they are negotiating with SEC/ESPN for the best possible deal.

They don’t want to join the Big Ten but it’s inevitable unless they join the SEC and all this stuff is happening now.

ND will make a decision in the next couple of months.

I think Oregon and Washington are in bigtime trouble.
They want a lifeline into the Big Ten that I am not sure is going to be made available to them.

They won’t bring in enough revenue to pay for their own inclusion.
Notre Dame and North Carolina are the only schools left who can bring 1 school of their choice with them wherever they would go.

Notre Dame is bigger than North Carolina though:

If ND decided to become a member of the ACC, the ACC could go to the Euro soccer model of base pay plus performance cash which would allow the marquee football programs to get closer to the ACC/SEC payout.

 

[CousCuse]

No, and yes Swofford saw to that. The only good programming on the ACC network got cancelled. All the other
shows are second rate, as if put on by a bunch of college kids.
The football and basketball programming is second rate.

The ACC/ESPN deal is gone bad, ESPN is trying to hamstring the ACC at every turn. The ACC needs to make a new plan and find a new network. ESPN has been way too overt with their plan and I think they would lose in court if the ACC challenged them to get their grant of rights back.

 

[Alsacs]

If ND decided to become a member of the ACC, the ACC could go to the Euro soccer model of base pay plus performance cash which would allow the marquee football programs to get closer to the ACC/SEC payout.

Notre Dame fans have already stated.
They don’t want to join the ACC for football and if they are going to join a conference they are going to take the paycheck.

ESPN would increase the ACC payout but again they would just have the SEC raid the ACC when the GOR were close to the end and prevent the ACC from going on the market and leveraging against ESPN.

This is all about Fox and ESPN trying to lock up their content. They have made their beds. Big Ten and SEC.

The ACC, Pac-12, Big XII are all below the big 2 now and forever.

Syracuse basketball and other sports will have a chance to succeed. Football is on borrowed time.

 

[Newhouser]

It’s obvious ND will push for the status quo as long as they can and then take their paycheck.

It wouldn’t be shocking me if they are negotiating with SEC/ESPN for the best possible deal.

They don’t want to join the Big Ten but it’s inevitable unless they join the SEC and all this stuff is happening now.

ND will make a decision in the next couple of months.

I think Oregon and Washington are in bigtime trouble.
They want a lifeline into the Big Ten that I am not sure is going to be made available to them.

They won’t bring in enough revenue to pay for their own inclusion.
Notre Dame and North Carolina are the only schools left who can bring 1 school of their choice with them wherever they would go.

Notre Dame is bigger than North Carolina though:

YOu think it will be that quick a timeline? The Big 10 is squeezing but they need to save a sport for ND just in case no? I think ND slow plays this a little longer, but I think your other insights are rock solid.

 

[elimunelson]

It’s obvious ND will push for the status quo as long as they can and then take their paycheck.

It wouldn’t be shocking me if they are negotiating with SEC/ESPN for the best possible deal.

They don’t want to join the Big Ten but it’s inevitable unless they join the SEC and all this stuff is happening now.

ND will make a decision in the next couple of months.

I think Oregon and Washington are in bigtime trouble.
They want a lifeline into the Big Ten that I am not sure is going to be made available to them.

They won’t bring in enough revenue to pay for their own inclusion.
Notre Dame and North Carolina are the only schools left who can bring 1 school of their choice with them wherever they would go.

Notre Dame is bigger than North Carolina though:

I still don't get why ND has to make a decision in a few months. If someone can point me to the scenario where they are shut out of any money i'll stand corrected. They have the ultimate optionality because if they decide to join either LIV conference, there will be a seat available to them because their revenue will always be there. It's not a depreciating asset to either league.

I would think the NCAA would have to be disassembled before ND makes a move. Even the GOR expiration may not move them because ultimately if there is so much money for them to make why is it beyond the pale that when they renegotiate their NBC deal they could approach a 100mm per year paycheck for their inventory. If everything is on the table, why can't ND just play all of their games at home. i'm sure enough colleges will still want to play them no matter what.

 

[nd1973]

I still don't get why ND has to make a decision in a few months. If someone can point me to the scenario where they are shut out of any money i'll stand corrected. They have the ultimate optionality because if they decide to join either LIV conference, there will be a seat available to them because their revenue will always be there. It's not a depreciating asset to either league.

I would think the NCAA would have to be disassembled before ND makes a move. Even the GOR expiration may not move them because ultimately if there is so much money for them to make why is it beyond the pale that when they renegotiate their NBC deal they could approach a 100mm per year paycheck for their inventory. If everything is on the table, why can't ND just play all of their games at home. i'm sure enough colleges will still want to play them no matter what.

We can dictate more terms at this point. If we wait we may have less power to dictate who we want to come along, buyout help, no buy in period. There are many reasons. Right now we have some leverage.

 

[Alsacs]

I still don't get why ND has to make a decision in a few months. If someone can point me to the scenario where they are shut out of any money i'll stand corrected. They have the ultimate optionality because if they decide to join either LIV conference, there will be a seat available to them because their revenue will always be there. It's not a depreciating asset to either league.

I would think the NCAA would have to be disassembled before ND makes a move. Even the GOR expiration may not move them because ultimately if there is so much money for them to make why is it beyond the pale that when they renegotiate their NBC deal they could approach a 100mm per year paycheck for their inventory. If everything is on the table, why can't ND just play all of their games at home. i'm sure enough colleges will still want to play them no matter what.

Big Ten new media deal starts in 2024.

Big Ten can make even more $$$ with its expansion.
Expansion now isn’t about cable boxes it’s about TV deals.

Big Ten second tier rights are still on the market.

It’s all about the money.

 

[nd1973]

Yeah this isn’t why. It’s all about the $$$ and TV rights deal.

You can’t dictate any terms. You are a hired gun who as I said could pull a partner with ND of their choosing but this all about money.

Not leverage.

Ha..

 

[Alsacs]

Ha..

I will forget more on this topic then you know.
But thanks for your interest in Syracuse athletics. I am a realist and understand my teams fate but you just want to troll here and not understand this stuff only solace I will take is Notre Dame losing its special status.
Iowa/Wisconsin putting Notre Dame in its rightful place in the Midwest conference.

 

[nd1973]

I will forget more on this topic then you know.
But thanks for your interest in Syracuse athletics. I am a realist and understand my teams fate but you just want to troll here and not understand this stuff only solace I will take is Notre Dame losing its special status.
Iowa/Wisconsin putting Notre Dame in its rightful place in the Midwest conference.

You know nothing. You know one thing, emotion, that is it. You are fun to watch melt though.

 

[orange79]

I can guarantee i know more on this stuff than you do.
I hope you are feeling better.

lol

Congrats on the 20+ "last" posts in this thread.

 

[ManleyRocks]

Taking a step back...some thoughts:

(i) If I am Clemson, Fla State and UNC, why would I really want to go to the SEC of Big 10 except for the money? The path to the NC is far easier through the ACC. Same is true for ND. I find it tough to believe the Big Ten and SEC would close the door to all other schools for the championship series as then you do not have a true champion.

(ii) Now, as it pertains to money, like any business, rain makers get paid more than non-rain makers. True in consulting firms, law firms, accounting firms, investment banks, etc. If I am Commissioner of the ACC, it is plain and simple that while not optimal there needs to be a more eat what you kill model. Maybe not 100 percent correlation, but to keep Clemson, Fla State, Miami, UNC, they need to paid more for the value they bring to the table. This "tax" will cost the other 10 schools each year, but over time, the 4 names above will change and it is the cost of doing business. I would create a valuation model that includes variables such as hard dollars directly brought in through bowl games, NCAA basketball performance, etc as well as franchise value and run it through the meat grinder.

(iii) It will be far worse and forever permanent for SU, BC, WF etc to be relegated to the new BE and playing Temple, UMass, Conn. That would be really sad.

(iv) I really believe at the end of the day, UNC does not want to give up the lore of tobacco road, and the State of VA does not want to split VA Tech from UVA.

(v) Right now you have 8 schools within spitting distance of each other.

(vi) All the other sports are pretty compatible. Great basketball league. Great lax league. Great field hockey league.

(vii) The super leagues will become boring. The world needs high end boutiques.

Be creative, change the revenue sharing. I suspect in the end, this existing band of brothers could be far happier than getting pounded every weekend and the stronger schools could be able maintain success more easily and the other schools should be able to more easily resurrect themselves. I know my friends who are UMD fans have not enjoyed their Big Ten experience to date. And other than the occasional good year, my friends who are Northwestern fans, do not enjoy their weekends either. And one can only imagine how it feels to be a Vanderbilt alum.

Lets get creative rather than being lemmings.