USF opens as a 5 point favorite

[Rocco]

Because other than us fans in Upstate NY, not many people have seen Syracuse play with Dungey. They didn't see what he was capable of in the second half of CMU, and the first half of Wake. All some have seen was the game against LSU. The national takeaway was that Fournette is a beast, and LSU played down, and committed a lot of penalties, where as locally we saw a team about to take off once healthy. I don't think that on a national level, as much as we would like it too, it changed many peoples perception of Syracuse. Eastern Michigan put up a good fight, and nobody on the national level is talking about how EMU hung in there. They're talking about Fournette, and that the OC used the game to attempt to get the passing game involved.
I'm guessing there will be people making money on this game in Syracuse NY, Winston Salem N.C., Mount Pleasant Michigan, and Baton Rouge, LA.

And Kingston, RI.

 

[Alsacs]

Right but I still don't see USF having enough money behind them to push the line. That's the part of the equation I can't figure out. You're spot on about the perception of SU but why would there be a positive $$$$ push for a 1-3 USF team who's only win is against an 0-5 FAMU team?

Vegas always wants action as close to 50/50 as possible when lines come out of whack the sharks call them the Vegas zone when they have no clue on a game they will put the line between 4 and 5.5. I think we will this game if Dungey is healthy but their no way a lot would be dropped on USF -5 so this line isn't anywhere close to 50/50 action. If they put the line at pick 'em they would likely get a lot more 50/50 action. With SU +5 Vegas has absolutely no faith in our offense being real and that makes no sense because even with Mahoney against LSU the offense in the 2nd half kept that game close and scored some points.

Also can you answer my thread on the other sports board I would love an actual diehard's opinion on it.

 

[Consigliere]

SU is going down there, locking the doors, kicking ass, and chewing bubblegum.

And they're all out of bubblegum!

 

[skurey]

This is our first road game too.

 

[LAOrange]

Vegas always wants action as close to 50/50 as possible when lines come out of whack the sharks call them the Vegas zone when they have no clue on a game they will put the line between 4 and 5.5. I think we will this game if Dungey is healthy but their no way a lot would be dropped on USF -5 so this line isn't anywhere close to 50/50 action. If they put the line at pick 'em they would likely get a lot more 50/50 action. With SU +5 Vegas has absolutely no faith in our offense being real and that makes no sense because even with Mahoney against LSU the offense in the 2nd half kept that game close and scored some points.

Also can you answer my thread on the other sports board I would love an actual diehard's opinion on it.

Vegas makes its money on the vig. The closer to even betting the happier they are. Minimizes the risk. They know the suckers who haven't been watching these teams (which is most of them) will take this as a sign that Syracuse is overblown, inspiring USF money. Syracuse fans are crazy. I'm ready to bet on teh National Championship in basketball every year, and after watching FSU struggle against Wake's back-up, I'm ready to say we'll only have one loss going into Clemson. As I said, SU fans are crazy.

 

[Millhouse]

...okay...

if mahoney plays (2/3 chance of that), USF by 10
if dungey plays (1/3 chance of that), SU by 5

that gets you to -5

it seems odd but it doesn't take many people to know something and put a lot of money onit

 

[texascpa]

Vegas makes its money on the vig. The closer to even betting the happier they are. Minimizes the risk. They know the suckers who haven't been watching these teams (which is most of them) will take this as a sign that Syracuse is overblown, inspiring USF money. Syracuse fans are crazy. I'm ready to bet on teh National Championship in basketball every year, and after watching FSU struggle against Wake's back-up, I'm ready to say we'll only have one loss going into Clemson. As I said, SU fans are crazy.

I bet money on the basketball National Championship once and only once. Guess which year that was

 

[LAOrange]

I bet money on the basketball National Championship once and only once. Guess which year that was

you're a CPA. You understand money. Most of us are idiots. I'd buy a lottery ticket if was orange.

 

[LAOrange]

if mahoney plays (2/3 chance of that), USF by 10
if dungey plays (1/3 chance of that), SU by 5

that gets you to -5

it seems odd but it doesn't take many people to know something and put a lot of money onit

That makes sense if you are truly handicapping a game. Vegas sets odds to get who they think are going to be the losers to bet.

 

[ImperialOrange]

Vegas always wants action as close to 50/50 as possible when lines come out of whack the sharks call them the Vegas zone when they have no clue on a game they will put the line between 4 and 5.5. I think we will this game if Dungey is healthy but their no way a lot would be dropped on USF -5 so this line isn't anywhere close to 50/50 action. If they put the line at pick 'em they would likely get a lot more 50/50 action. With SU +5 Vegas has absolutely no faith in our offense being real and that makes no sense because even with Mahoney against LSU the offense in the 2nd half kept that game close and scored some points.

Also can you answer my thread on the other sports board I would love an actual diehard's opinion on it.

Done

 

[upperdeck]

sharp money is waiting to see who we have as QB. 99% of the college world doesn't care about our game.. if dungey gets announced the line will drop 2-4 pts as the sharps will jump in. the is bigger money in miami so there may be 2-3x as many su fans as miami fans playing the game for all we know.. not sure why USF fans would be jumping on this team the way they have played.

 

[IthacaMatt]

...okay...

Historically, we used to have a tough time down there when we were both in the Big East. This is a huge game.

 

[Pyle]

That makes sense if you are truly handicapping a game. Vegas sets odds to get who they think are going to be the losers to bet.

Mahoney threw 3 TDs against LSU, USF is averaging 17 pts per game. USF is NOT better than LSU defensively. No way USF is -10 just because Mahoney is under center.

 

[Frozen]

Historically, we used to have a tough time down there when we were both in the Big East. This is a huge game.

In the four SU-USF games played in Tampa, each team is 2-2.

 

[FrancoPizza]

Let's keep in mind the D may come back to its baseline this week for a couple reasons:
- USF is not going to rely exclusively on the running game and the secondary will be tested far more in pass coverage than last week
- I think many are overlooking how a loud home crowd can help confuse an opposing offense... the D won't have that 12th man this week (and neither will USF but that's besides the point)

If SU wins it'll be due to offensive production.

 

[GoSU96]

The reason to feel good about this game is that USF got soundly beat by a horrible Maryland team.

 

[Pyle]

Let's keep in mind the D may come back to its baseline this week for a couple reasons:
- USF is not going to rely exclusively on the running game and the secondary will be tested far more in pass coverage than last week
- I think many are overlooking how a loud home crowd can help confuse an opposing offense... the D won't have that 12th man this week (and neither will USF but that's besides the point)

If SU wins it'll be due to offensive production.

I'm not disagreeing but also keep in mind USF has the 107th ranked passing offense right now and the 28th ranked rushing offense. They like to run the ball.

 

[upperdeck]

and they have no crowd.

 

[690West]

Here's a funny thread. About 5 posters all think the -110 moneyline is the over/under total. They're as shocked as we are with the line. As upperdeck stated, I'm most surprised at how much it differs from Sagarin, who has Cuse as 6 point favorites @USF. That's a TEN POINT difference. Dang. I smell value!!
http://www.thebullspen.com/topic/101161-bulls-5-point-favorite-over-cuse/

 

[orange79]

Dang. I smell value!!

 

[TexanMark]

Has the line moved?

 

[Moontan]

Has the line moved?

Supposedly, it's now at 4 points.

If I was in Vegas this week then I'd be playing.

 

[Toga]

Supposedly, it's now at 4 points.

If I was in Vegas this week then I'd be playing.

I'll be there 3 days after the game. Dammit.

 

[djorange1989]

I'll be there 3 days after the game. Dammit.

I am in Vegas now, guess who I am plunking some cash down on over at the Wynn Sports Book??

 

[Toga]

I am in Vegas now, guess who I am plunking some cash down on over at the Wynn Sports Book??

Put down $200 for me - I'm good for it!