Vermont Game Preview (02/04/23, 1pm) | Page 3 | Syracusefan.com

Vermont Game Preview (02/04/23, 1pm)

Has anyone heard of Paul Lamonaca at FO?


 
Thanks Xtreme!!
 
Over on Fanlax a poster said Will Mark has an 87% rating on Lax Reference for excess saves. I'm not familiar with it but he said something like it's the amount and type of saves a goalie makes vs the avg or something and Will Mark is at 87% which is very good. Any one else familiar with this? Is it about how if u face more shots it's harder to keep a higher save percentage which I believe is definitely true in any sport with anything yet others don't think it means nothing. That's why in certain sports u need a certain amount of say passes for a QB to qualify for certain records. If u have a limited amount then ur percentages can be inflated as it's harder to keep a higher percentage the more passes u throw or the more saves u make. Which I mentioned will mark making 23 saves out of 40 shots on goal is more impressive then someone making 12 saves on 22 shots on goal. I feel like it's almost commons sense it's harder to keep a percentage up the more shots on goal but maybe I'm wrong idk.
 
I cannot say specifically about stats will add one anecdote.

My daughter is a hockey goalie. Different sport but similar as it relates to this question.

When she faces a team that gets a lot of shots off, its very clear that the team is much better in most aspects to a team that gets fewer shots on her. But its not just the number of shots, its quality of shots, speed of shots, placement of shots, shots off rebounds, shots blocked by her defense, shots altered by her defense, etc. My daughter has a much higher save percentage against a lower quality team because the shots are easier to save.

One example. My daughter is short. When she goes into butterfly, she gives up a good chunk of the net over her shoulders. Better shooters can lift the puck and score more easily. She is much better stopping shots from average shooters that struggle with lifting the puck because she moves side to side and is good with her stick and glove.
thanks. definitely some similarities.
all of this seems like off season chatter, because it is. liu gave up a lot of shots mark's first 1 1/2 seasons, and then an average amount last year, and less than syracuse. he saved the same % of shots in both cases.

now, presumably, the talent level of comp goes up and we'll see. if they can get 50%+ that's 2 1/2+ goals a game. they are likely to need it even more than last year with phaup gone unless faceoffs are a big positive surprise.
 
Well it's finally here. After what felt like an eternity, the offseason is over and we actually have an honest to goodness game to look forward to. Vermont is outside the top 20 but pose a stiff test to a reconfigured Orange team. I'll try and keep these game previews a little more brief than usual.

On offense the Catamounts lose a lot, including one of the best players in their history in Thomas McConvey who left for UVA in the offseason (74 points from the midfield). They also lose their fourth and fifth leading scorers in David McCormick and Liam Limoges. But they return their second and third leading scorers in David Closterman and Brock Haley, who combined for 101 points last year. That's nothing to sneeze at. UVM also returns four other players who scored in double digits last year. They will definitely have to adjust to losing McConvey which should take some getting used to. They run a motion based offense heavily influenced by a Canadian style so the potential for this team is there. But even the best schemes need players to draw slides and finish shots. Do they have somone to put pressue on a defense and get feet moving?

For SU, Will Mark is the presumed starter and it will be exciting to see him get his first start in the Dome. Lots of questions for the SU defense, but I'm assuming that Caccamo will draw Closterman. Curious to see how the SSDMs perform as they bring in two transfers and some freshmen. This unit should have more depth this year. Also wondering who will back up Olexo at LSM.

Defensively the Mounts have a beast of a player in Nick Alviti - he's one of the returning players who scored in double digits last year (eight goals, four assists). He's not just a threat in transition, he was also second on the team in groundballs with 88 and first in Caused Turnovers with 32. You have to think that SU will spend a lot of time avoiding the Junior from Connecticut. That said, the rest of the Vermont defense is no joke as Jackson Canfield, Will Jones combined for 40 caused turnovers as well. The new look SU offense has some good news as longtime goalie Ryan Cornell (55% save percentage, 8.91 GAA) is gone.

It looks like the attack for Syracuse is set with Spallina running with Simmons and Hiltz. Who starts at midfield? How often will players be rotated? Lots of returning players who, quite frankly didn't perform that well last year will be meshed together with transfers and freshmen. Who wins out?

The biggest advantage the Catamounts will have of course will be their FOGO, as Tommy Burke comes in with a 61.4% winning percentage from last year. Syracuse has many questions in this department (I'm not even sure who the presumed starter will be). Can SU mitigate the possession discrepancy with a better defense? Who will be on the face-off wings for the Orange? If they struggle do they stick with one guy or try and throw the kitchen sink at Burke?

Alright, can't wait till Saturday. I think this could be a close game if Syracuse struggles at the face-off. I think ultimately their depth wins out and they overwhelm Vermont, but should be a good game. Maybe something like 14-10? Go 'Cuse.

Good post, I was procrastinating on starting a preview thread, glad you beat me to it.
A couple quick thoughts

Vermont actually lost there #1st, 3rd and 5th leading scorers (McConvey, McCormack and Limoges). They do return their top 3 assist men though in Closterman, Haley and Fenech. Going to be fascinating to see how they run their offense this year as the top 3 goal scorers (by far) are gone but the top 3 assist men are back.

Going to try and avoid going off on a long tangent because you and others have really done a good job touching on most aspects. Defensively the team appeared to play much better if the stats from Michigan are correct especially when you consider Michigan has a potent attack unit and a fairly good FOGO. Obviously Mark will be in goal and I am expecting a huge difference from last years debacle. That said it's hard to tell what to expect tomorrow in a live game. SSDM probably has the most depth it has ever had and Petro will have a lot of options. Seems likely that Rice and Aviles will get first crack but with Murphy, Mercado, Bolea and likely Rosa being options, it will be fascinating to see who breaks out of the pack. I suspect Murphy will end up seeing a lot of time at SSDM.

Caccamo will clearly be the #1 defender and will surely draw Closterman. Beyond that it is anyone's guess. Figuerias was likely to start but obviously his injury has shaken things up a bit. Clary was excellent as a frosh until he got hurt and didn't seem 100% last year. I assume that being more then a year post injury he's a lot closer to being fully recovered and I am not surprised he's gotten himself a starting spot. Kol is intriguing, would have thought Dwan would grab up that last spot with Riley out but if the close unit is the same as it was in the fall it will be Kol. Kol was a fairly highly rated player but didn't' really see much time last year. The fact he has earned a starting spot to me is a good sign as there are certainly other talented long poles on the team though most are freshmen. I am very curious to see who that third spot on close is and if it is Kol can he hold off Dwan and the other frosh.

Offensively I think we should be able to generate points and potentially a lot of them most games. The O talent while somewhat young is pretty deep especially at attack. Now UVM has a couple talented defenders as their LSM and #1 close defender are both 1st team All Conference. I have no idea if they will try and put their #1 defender Canfield on Spallina. Canfield is good but is a smaller player (listed 5'11), wouldn't seem to be a great matchup for Simmons. Alviti the LSM is excellent, I assume he will draw Birtwistle or Kirst on the 1st mid line. I know you mentioned Will Jones but I don't believe he is still with Vermont. UVM breaking a new goalie and a new coordinator should work to SU's advantage. SU's scoring depth should be able to play a major role here as UVM will likely be unable to match up with Simmons, Spallina and Hiltz and double polling the midfield is not possible with this attack unit unless your talking Maryland's SSDM from last year.

Biggest concerns for me are as follows:
1. Battle at the X gets out of hand. Burke is an excellent FOGO, as NycLax pointed out he's not an uber elite FOGO whose likely to win 28 of 30 but the faceoff spot is a complete mystery right now and you worry that SU may be slow to throw the kitchen sink at Burke. The last thing you want is him getting into a groove and suddenly your stuck conceding draws and in a world of trouble, which we have seen a few times in recent history (Cough Massa Cough).

2. FOGO issues lead to a downward spiral. It's a tale as old as time, team is struggling at the X and when their offense finally gets the ball it presses and starts to try and make the perfect pass, shot etc. SU's O is fairly young if you take out Simmons, you worry a bit if SU's not winning draws that they may get out of sorts when they get the ball and compound the issue. O will need to be efficient especially if there are major issues at the X.

3. Kind of in the same tone but Defensively I could see the same thing happening if Vermont is winning nearly all the faceoffs. There is some veteran presences in Aviles and Mark and Murphy but again if Vermont is playing make it take it things could get messy and quick. I am hopeful some of the mistakes and errors we saw last year will be cleaned up but if possession time is significantly tilted it will likely be an issue. In regular 6 on 6 I hope to see less mistakes and less time and room shooters for the opposition. The D overall was putrid at times last year.

4. Turnovers and Sloppy play - One of the biggest issues last year was turnovers and just overall bad play. 5 off-sides against Albany, turning the ball over 18+ times, passes into double teams, sliding for absolutely no reason etc. I don't suspect SU will be an A+ clean game but the penalties and some of the dumb mistakes have to be cleaned up, simply have to be.

Overall I think the team is in a good spot and they "should" beat Vermont. However, they also should have beaten Albany last year, Colgate a few years ago etc. FOGO to me is the most concerning spot followed by the close D and injuries.

I am hoping to see some improvement at the wing position, this will be critical with Burke as SU may try to simply muck up most draws and take their chances in a scrum. I assume Murphy will be one of the wings, no idea who the long pole is but they have to be light years better then what we saw last year.

If Gibbs is starting the FOGO I hope we won't be to hesitant to go to Richusa or Fine or even the walk on if we have to to counter Burke. Maryland a few years ago threw the kitchen sink at Ierlan and I think finally had success with their 4th guy. I hope we are pleasantly surprised with how draws go tomorrow but we can't be slow to try someone else if Burke is pinching and popping at will.

Lastly I hope that SU is gaining significant possessions so that we can see some of that offensive depth. I'd like to see Thomson or Birtwistle get a run at attack. Leo and Kempney at midfield etc. I don't need to see SU win in a blowout tomorrow but I do need to see an improvement over last year in pretty much all facets save the X.
 
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Is it just me or does it feel like christmas eve night and wanna go to sleep as soon as possible to wake up only for it to be christmas but christmas is actually game time ? Can not wait let’s go
 
Good post, I was procrastinating on starting a preview thread, glad you beat me to it.
A couple quick thoughts

Vermont actually lost there #1st, 3rd and 5th leading scorers (McConvey, McCormack and Limoges). They do return their top 3 assist men though in Closterman, Haley and Fenech. Going to be fascinating to see how they run their offense this year as the top 3 goal scorers (by far) are gone but the top 3 assist men are back.

Going to try and avoid going off on a long tangent because you and others have really done a good job touching on most aspects. Defensively the team appeared to play much better if the stats from Michigan are correct especially when you consider Michigan has a potent attack unit and a fairly good FOGO. Obviously Mark will be in goal and I am expecting a huge difference from last years debacle. That said it's hard to tell what to expect tomorrow in a live game. SSDM probably has the most depth it has ever had and Petro will have a lot of options. Seems likely that Rice and Aviles will get first crack but with Murphy, Mercado, Bolea and likely Rosa being options, it will be fascinating to see who breaks out of the pack. I suspect Murphy will end up seeing a lot of time at SSDM.

Caccamo will clearly be the #1 defender and will surely draw Closterman. Beyond that it is anyone's guess. Figuerias was likely to start but obviously his injury has shaken things up a bit. Clary was excellent as a frosh until he got hurt and didn't seem 100% last year. I assume that being more then a year post injury he's a lot closer to being fully recovered and I am not surprised he's gotten himself a starting spot. Kol is intriguing, would have thought Dwan would grab up that last spot with Riley out but if the close unit is the same as it was in the fall it will be Kol. Kol was a fairly highly rated player but didn't' really see much time last year. The fact he has earned a starting spot to me is a good sign as there are certainly other talented long poles on the team though most are freshmen. I am very curious to see who that third spot on close is and if it is Kol can he hold off Dwan and the other frosh.

Offensively I think we should be able to generate points and potentially a lot of them most games. The O talent while somewhat young is pretty deep especially at attack. Now UVM has a couple talented defenders as their LSM and #1 close defender are both 1st team All Conference. I have no idea if they will try and put their #1 defender Canfield on Spallina. Canfield is good but is a smaller player (listed 5'11), wouldn't seem to be a great matchup for Simmons. Alviti the LSM is excellent, I assume he will draw Birtwistle or Kirst on the 1st mid line. I know you mentioned Will Jones but I don't believe he is still with Vermont. UVM breaking a new goalie and a new coordinator should work to SU's advantage. SU's scoring depth should be able to play a major role here as UVM will likely be unable to match up with Simmons, Spallina and Hiltz and double polling the midfield is not possible with this attack unit unless your talking Maryland's SSDM from last year.

Biggest concerns for me are as follows:
1. Battle at the X gets out of hand. Burke is an excellent FOGO, as NycLax pointed out he's not an uber elite FOGO whose likely to win 28 of 30 but the faceoff spot is a complete mystery right now and you worry that SU may be slow to throw the kitchen sink at Burke. The last thing you want is him getting into a groove and suddenly your stuck conceding draws and in a world of trouble, which we have seen a few times in recent history (Cough Massa Cough).

2. FOGO issues lead to a downward spiral. It's a tale as old as time, team is struggling at the X and when their offense finally gets the ball it presses and starts to try and make the perfect pass, shot etc. SU's O is fairly young if you take out Simmons, you worry a bit if SU's not winning draws that they may get out of sorts when they get the ball and compound the issue. O will need to be efficient especially if there are major issues at the X.

3. Kind of in the same tone but Defensively I could see the same thing happening if Vermont is winning nearly all the faceoffs. There is some veteran presences in Aviles and Mark and Murphy but again if Vermont is playing make it take it things could get messy and quick. I am hopeful some of the mistakes and errors we saw last year will be cleaned up but if possession time is significantly tilted it will likely be an issue. In regular 6 on 6 I hope to see less mistakes and less time and room shooters for the opposition. The D overall was putrid at times last year.

4. Turnovers and Sloppy play - One of the biggest issues last year was turnovers and just overall bad play. 5 off-sides against Albany, turning the ball over 18+ times, passes into double teams, sliding for absolutely no reason etc. I don't suspect SU will be an A+ clean game but the penalties and some of the dumb mistakes have to be cleaned up, simply have to be.

Overall I think the team is in a good spot and they "should" beat Vermont. However, they also should have beaten Albany last year, Colgate a few years ago etc. FOGO to me is the most concerning spot followed by the close D and injuries.

I am hoping to see some improvement at the wing position, this will be critical with Burke as SU may try to simply muck up most draws and take their chances in a scrum. I assume Murphy will be one of the wings, no idea who the long pole is but they have to be light years better then what we saw last year.

If Gibbs is starting the FOGO I hope we won't be to hesitant to go to Richusa or Fine or even the walk on if we have to to counter Burke. Maryland a few years ago threw the kitchen sink at Ierlan and I think finally had success with their 4th guy. I hope we are pleasantly surprised with how draws go tomorrow but we can't be slow to try someone else if Burke is pinching and popping at will.

Lastly I hope that SU is gaining significant possessions so that we can see some of that offensive depth. I'd like to see Thomson or Birtwistle get a run at attack. Leo and Kempney at midfield etc. I don't need to see SU win in a blowout tomorrow but I do need to see an improvement over last year in pretty much all facets save the X.

Good stuff as always Jeremy. I worry about the defense as well.

Lots of talk this year about how things are different, there’s more familiarity, better communication. The proof will be in the pudding. I worry a little bit about the fact that two of the new starters at close were backups last year on a defense that was really pretty bad. If they couldn’t beat out last years poor performers what makes us think this year will be better? I worry that the plan was for the two highly rated freshmen to start from day one, and one got injured and the other isn’t quite ready. It could explain why they didn’t bring in any transfers. Of course guys improve and breakout and all that, so I’m hoping Kol and Clary have done that and this isn’t a total backup plan b situation. Fingers crossed.

I imagine that Olexo and Aviles will be the first guys on the wings for faceoffs. You are correct both need to perform better there. Groundballs are such a hard thing to be good at, but if you are it’s invaluable. Both guys are extremely aggressive so I think they will be able to get the ball on the ground, just have to focus on picking it up.
 
Good stuff as always Jeremy. I worry about the defense as well.

Lots of talk this year about how things are different, there’s more familiarity, better communication. The proof will be in the pudding. I worry a little bit about the fact that two of the new starters at close were backups last year on a defense that was really pretty bad. If they couldn’t beat out last years poor performers what makes us think this year will be better? I worry that the plan was for the two highly rated freshmen to start from day one, and one got injured and the other isn’t quite ready. It could explain why they didn’t bring in any transfers. Of course guys improve and breakout and all that, so I’m hoping Kol and Clary have done that and this isn’t a total backup plan b situation. Fingers crossed.

I imagine that Olexo and Aviles will be the first guys on the wings for faceoffs. You are correct both need to perform better there. Groundballs are such a hard thing to be good at, but if you are it’s invaluable. Both guys are extremely aggressive so I think they will be able to get the ball on the ground, just have to focus on picking it up.

I agree about the Defense, Figuerias was going to start from Day 1, his injury is a bigger blow then people realize. I do think that Clary is probably getting a bit overlooked, he looked outstanding as a frosh before he got hurt and blew out his knee. He was up and down last year but I chalk most of that up to him still working his way back from the injury. I think he could be a very good close defender and with Olexxo playing so well at LSM the move makes sense (assuming it was a Kennedy situation where he was moved because we had no choice). Kol is a tougher call, he red-shirted his frosh year and barely played last year. That said he was named a Captain seemingly out of nowhere and guys do break out. I would assume that of the three his spot maybe the most precarious to being poached by Dwan or one of the other Frosh. Wish Riley was healthy, think he could have made a massive impact.

Your are likely right on Olexo and Aviles, I would like to see a different combo last year as both as I recall struggled. I think Murphy saw extensive time no the wings for LIU, hope we give him a crack. As for Long Pole, Page and Drago are the backups maybe one of them could carve out a niche there, hell I'd even try Dwan or one of the other Frosh if need be. Wing play has to be better.
 

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