Whats the magic W number?

[dasher]

For that, I believe we need 17 wins. That would get us to 17-14 in the regular season, where even if we lost immediately in 2 post season tournaments, we would end up 17-16.

We go 17-14, there will be only one post season game. This isn't the old N.I.T.

 

[Wrinkle]

12-8 in ACC with a signature win against Duke/FSU/Lville

 

[longtimefan]

The games we lost after having a big lead ugh

Which games were those?

 

[longtimefan]

For that, I believe we need 17 wins. That would get us to 17-14 in the regular season, where even if we lost immediately in 2 post season tournaments, we would end up 17-16.

"You are correct, sir." (Best Ed McMahon voice.)

 

[Alsacs]

For the life of me I dont know how Pitt has 13 wins

Pitt is the only ACC team to beat Florida State.
It was the season opener though.

 

[Alsacs]

17 is the magic number for me.
Anything more is special.

To make the NCAAT I think we need 14 ACC wins unless we win 2 of 3 against UL/FSU/Duke. Then 13 would be sufficient in that scenario.

 

[Newhouser]

Hard to put a number with the rest of the bubble appearing a tad wobbly. I'm on the record if we don't get one of the Big 3 even if we run the table, we aren't getting in.

 

[EnviroSciGuy]

The one thing that will not help us, if we keep playing well, is our first ACC tourney game. That could well be a "nuisance" game. A game that does not help your resume, but can only hurt it if you lose.

So we probably need to follow up our regular season with one ACC tournament win, only to avoid a questionable loss.

The double-bye will hep with this

 

[Niastri]

Hard to put a number with the rest of the bubble appearing a tad wobbly. I'm on the record if we don't get one of the Big 3 even if we run the table, we aren't getting in.

So you think if we are 14-6 in the ACC and 21-11 overall we miss out? I assume you then plan on a loss in the ACCT first round as well...

Either way, I think you are extremely pessimistic, to the point of indicating a possible persecution complex.

14-6 in the ACC even in a down year, with what would be a stellar road record gets us a middling seed, off the bubble entirely.

 

[jncuse]

When the B10 gets 10 teams in the tournament this year, there will be a lot of upset people.

But that is the importance of pre-January play for a conference as a whole.

 

[Alsacs]

When the B10 gets 10 teams in the tournament this year, there will be a lot of upset people.

But that is the importance of pre-January play for a conference as a whole.

Minnesota is a joke if they make it.
They played a lot of people but their wins aren’t there.

The Big Ten isn’t as good as its numbers.
All the teams win at home and lose on the road. Thus nobody has bad losses.
Michigan State is good.
Michigan/Ohio State have fallen off the cliff.
Iowa/Pennsylvania State/Rutgers are the surprises and it’s funny we played the first 2.

Maryland is a prototype home/road team.

 

[hoopsupstate]

Pitt likes to attack the basket and get to the foul line. The zone really affects the way they like to play. We shot poorly from. The three the last couple of games and still came away with wins.

 

[Charbroil]

I typically am an optimist when it comes to Orange bubble chances but I don’t think 13-7 gets Cuse in unless at least 1 of the wins is against the big 3 (Duke, FSU, L’Ville).

If they go 13-7 in the ACC (20-11 overall) without a big win they would have a resume similar to when Nebraska got snubbed with a 13-5 Big Ten record two years ago. These unbalanced conference schedules can really be a hinderance if you don’t play the top teams twice.

 

[Consigliere]

I still am focusing on the winning season.

I’m with you. One goal at a time.

 

[orange79]

The magic win number?

The next one.

 

[Trueblue25]

I think if we win vs clemson we can afford to become optimistic with this team. They will have earned that

 

[Ragman2000]

But what do we have to look forward to?

God I love posting that after every win. We literally haven't lost since that ridiculous post.

 

[orangenauburn]

I think we have to hit 20 but with an asterisk. One of those wins has to be against a top 25 team

Three top ten in next six.

 

[jncuse]

I typically am an optimist when it comes to Orange bubble chances but I don’t think 13-7 gets Cuse in unless at least 1 of the wins is against the big 3 (Duke, FSU, L’Ville).

If they go 13-7 in the ACC (20-11 overall) without a big win they would have a resume similar to when Nebraska got snubbed with a 13-5 Big Ten record two years ago. These unbalanced conference schedules can really be a hinderance if you don’t play the top teams twice.

Already considered it earlier this week, as thought it would be a good comp. But when you dive in, it it not that close. Road wins are good!

If we end up 13-7 there are some very significant potential differences.
1) Nebraska went 0-9 in Quad 1 Games. They were 5-1 in Quad 2, so they ended up with 5 Q1+Q2 wins.
2) Nebraska had 4 road wins ... we are already there.
2) They had one really ugly loss later in the season (at Illinois who was RPI #188)

We already have 2 Q1 wins, and 2 Q2 wins -- at 13-7 we will have more quality wins than Nebraska.
And if we somehow get to 13-7, with no big scalps, we are not going to have a really bad loss like they did.

Even if I took our 7 least impressive possible games to get to 13-7.
H - UNC (Q3)
H - Georgia Tech (Q3)
H - Wake Forest (Q3)
A - Boston College (Q3)

Every other game on our schedule is Q1 or Q2. Some of those road teams are going to be around 75 in the NET at the end of the season, so they may slip into Q1. But let's say they are all Q2.

At 13-7, we are guaranteed to have at least 7 Q1+Q2 wins, with at least a couple being Q1 wins.

So in comparison (Syracuse 2020 vs Nebraska 2017)
2 (or 3) Q1 wins vs NIL
7 Q1+Q2 wins vs 5
No really bad losses vs 1
7 road wins vs 4 road wins.
OOC Blank vs OOC Blank

We need to go 13-7 of course, which is not going to be easy.

 

[Charbroil]

I was looking at the Nebraska resume earlier this week, as I had thought that could be a strong comparison since they went 13-5 in a weak B10, with nothing accomplished out of conference.

But if we end up 13-7 there are some very significant potential differences.
1) Nebraska went 0-9 in Quad 1 Games. They were 5-1 in Quad 2, so they ended up with 5 Q1+Q2 wins.
2) Nebraska had 4 road wins ... we are already there.
2) They had one really ugly loss later in the season (at Illinois who was RPI #188)

We already have 2 Q1 wins, and 2 Q2 wins -- at 13-7 we will have more quality wins than Nebraska.
And if we somehow get to 13-7, with no big scalps, we are not going to have a really bad loss like they did.

Even if I took our 7 least impressive possible games to get to 13-7.
H - UNC (Q3)
H - Georgia Tech (Q3)
H - Wake Forest (Q3)
A - Boston College (Q3)

Every other game on our schedule is Q1 or Q2. Some of those road teams are going to be around 75 in the NET at the end of the season, so they may slip into Q1. But let's say they are all Q2.

At 13-7, we are guaranteed to have at least 7 Q1+Q2 wins, with a couple being Q1 wins.

So in comparison (Syracuse 2020 vs Nebraska 2017)
2 (or 3) Q1 wins vs NIL
7 Q1+Q2 wins vs 5
No really bad loss.
7 road wins vs 4 road wins.
OOC Blank vs OOC Blank

So when you look closely, we are not going to be that comparable. Winning on the road is a good thing.

We need to go 13-7 of course, which is not going to be easy.

Good analysis. I think you’re probably right. And the bubbles being different each year is a variable to consider. Hopefully they win 1 or 2 of the big games and it’s a moot point.

 

[jncuse]

Good analysis. I think you’re probably right. And the bubbles being different each year is a variable to consider. Hopefully they win 1 or 2 of the big games and it’s a moot point.

Good for you to think of Nebraska though.

And you are right -- not all bubbles are the same. Could be weaker or stronger, so comparing a team from 2020 to 2017, like I just did might not always be valid.

 

[jncuse]

UNC is going to end up Q2.

Something lit a fire under them and they are playing much better.

Wouldn't be surprised to see them go on a run

Maybe they stopped listening to Roy.

 

[syrBossHogg]

Georgia Tech could end up being a sneaky Q1/Q2 win. They're 93rd in the NET, have their injured guys back, and don't have to play FSU/Duke/UVA ROS.

 

[UpstateSM]

Maybe they stopped listening to Roy.

Helps a little that Miami is awful and their best player didn’t play

 

[Newhouser]

Good for you to think of Nebraska though.

And you are right -- not all bubbles are the same. Could be weaker or stronger, so comparing a team from 2020 to 2017, like I just did might not always be valid.

When do you start your deep dive on bubble status? Best part of the forum.