When ESPN last night switched immediately to the KU/UT game...

[RF2044]

I would be interested in what numbers say as we may be a bit blinded by what we saw in the Duke game as opposed to the rest of the season.

Speak for yourself. All season long, I've cringed every time he's pulled up a foot inside the arc, or stepped back with a defender in his face to take an 18 footer instead of what began as a 14 footer, only to be surprised when he routinely cans that shot even with a hand in his face. That observation is not just based upon the Duke game, and the data supports my contention.

The following breakdown for Tyus is from January 14, 2019:

Other than the left elbow extended, he shoots at what is classified as an above average clip from within 2 feet inside the three point line. It isn't an anecdotal observation -- the data bears it out.

Pay special attention to the shot volume data.

He's actually really good from mid-range, too--better than I gave him credit for--with the exception similarity of that cone extending from the left diagonal--clearly, not his spot on the floor. The coaching staff should use data like this to help him reduce taking shots from that area -- but otherwise, he's been strong taking DEEP shots just inside the three point line.

 

[orangehomer]

Speak for yourself. All season long, I've cringed every time he's pulled up a foot inside the arc, or stepped back with a defender in his face to take an 18 footer instead of what began as a 14 footer, only to be surprised when he routinely cans that shot even with a hand in his face. That observation is not just based upon the Duke game, and the data supports my contention.

The following breakdown for Tyus is from January 14, 2019:

Other than the left elbow extended, he shoots at what is classified as an above average clip from within 2 feet inside the three point line. It isn't an anecdotal observation -- the data bears it out.

Pay special attention to the shot volume data. He's actually really good from mid-range, too, with the exception similarity of that arc on the left diagonal--clearly, not his spot on the floor. The coaching staff should use data like this to help him reduce taking shots from that area -- but otherwise, he's been strong taking DEEP shots just inside the three point line.

he is not a catch-and-shoot type player, and he is not good enough to do the step-back shot from three-point range. what else can the staff do besides try to get him shots he can make? i'm not criticizing you, i'm asking what else the staff can do with this player besides get him in transition.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Speak for yourself. All season long, I've cringed every time he's pulled up a foot inside the arc, or stepped back with a defender in his face to take an 18 footer instead of what began as a 14 footer, only to be surprised when he routinely cans that shot even with a hand in his face. That observation is not just based upon the Duke game, and the data supports my contention.

The following breakdown for Tyus is from January 14, 2019:

Other than the left elbow extended, he shoots at what is classified as an above average clip from within 2 feet inside the three point line. It isn't an anecdotal observation -- the data bears it out.

Pay special attention to the shot volume data. He's actually really good from mid-range, too, with the exception similarity of that arc on the left diagonal--clearly, not his spot on the floor. The coaching staff should use data like this to help him reduce taking shots from that area -- but otherwise, he's been strong taking DEEP shots just inside the three point line.

I love stuff like this. Where did you get this? Anytime I look for stuff like this, the site always wants a subscription.

Best part about this diagram is that he almost always starts out on the right and can go either way, pull up and drain it.

 

[chugg21]

Speak for yourself. All season long, I've cringed every time he's pulled up a foot inside the arc, or stepped back with a defender in his face to take an 18 footer instead of what began as a 14 footer, only to be surprised when he routinely cans that shot even with a hand in his face. That observation is not just based upon the Duke game, and the data supports my contention.

The following breakdown for Tyus is from January 14, 2019:

Other than the left elbow extended, he shoots at what is classified as an above average clip from within 2 feet inside the three point line. It isn't an anecdotal observation -- the data bears it out.

Pay special attention to the shot volume data.

He's actually really good from mid-range, too--better than I gave him credit for--with the exception similarity of that cone extending from the left diagonal--clearly, not his spot on the floor. The coaching staff should use data like this to help him reduce taking shots from that area -- but otherwise, he's been strong taking DEEP shots just inside the three point line.

Kind of bizarre to me that you think it supports your contention when this all came about from me saying I don't think he shoots much above 40% from that area. The numbers show 44% on one side and 29% on the other. Those 2 averaged would be 36.5% but even if you up that by 3% due to volume differences then you're still right at 40% which is what I said to begin with and you had disagreed.

 

[RF2044]

Kind of bizarre to me that you think it supports your contention when this all came about from me saying I don't think he shoots much above 40% from that area. The numbers show 44% on one side and 29% on the other. Those 2 averaged would be 36.5% but even if you up that by 3% due to volume differences then you're still right at 40% which is what I said to begin with and you had disagreed.

Exhibit A of you can lead a horse to water...

Straight averages are by far the weakest argument you could possibly come up with given the far more robust data that was provided, but if you really want to die defending that hill, be my guest.

Really, this thread hasn't gone well for you at all -- the data objectively disproves every argument you've tried to make. In addition to validating my original point that Battle shoots markedly better just inside the three point line than he does from beyond, the data also shows that he shoots better than 40% -- especially in clusters where he takes the highest concentration of shots [visually, more than 2/3 of those shots, which is why a straight average doesn't apply].

The data also shows trends from the entire season, not just the Duke game as you tried to insinuate.

"The numbers show 44% on one side and 29% on the other." Uh... no.

Other than that, how'd you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

 

[RF2044]

he is not a catch-and-shoot type player, and he is not good enough to do the step-back shot from three-point range. what else can the staff do besides try to get him shots he can make? i'm not criticizing you, i'm asking what else the staff can do with this player besides get him in transition.

Even though the data in that graph is aggregated to a high level, it provides a tremendous amount of insight. I'm certain that information like this is presented to the players to inform shot selection, from a quality control standpoint in meetings.

Just looking at the data presented, I'd envision that it would be an easy conversation to have with Tyus, with some clearly informative insights:

• You're only shooting ~30% from three point range. If you have a good shot from out there, you've got the green light to take it -- but recognize that if you take a dribble or two inside the arc, your chance of making the shot increases dramatically by about 1/3. So don't just "settle" for threes, get to a spot where you're more comfortable.

• Next, break the area inside the arc into four equally sized, roughly triangular / cone shaped zones. Recognize where you are on the floor when you've got the ball in your hands. From left to right, if you're in zone 1, 3, or 4 -- let it fly. But look at the data for zone 2 -- you're making substantially less shots from that left elbow area extending out to the three point line. So if you find yourself with the ball in zone 2, be selective about putting it up. Work for a better shot, pass the ball, and get to a spot where you're more comfortable.

• The data clearly shows that you're taking the majority of your shots from the right side of the court, in zones 3 and 4, and consistently making those shots. So initiate your offense on that side of the court, and don't hesitate to put it up anywhere on that side. Similarly, the data shows you're knocking down baseline jump shots consistently, so let fly.

Obviously, a player like Tyus has a green light -- I doubt that the coaching staff will get on him too much about taking threes [for example] despite the percentages. But this type of quality control data would have helped reinforce the lesson JB was trying to convey to [again, just for example] freshman Paul Harris, who used to get pulled every time he cranked up an ill advised three point shot but stubbornly refused to stop taking them.

 

[chugg21]

Exhibit A of you can lead a horse to water...

Straight averages are by far the weakest argument you could possibly come up with given the far more robust data that was provided, but if you really want to die defending that hill, be my guest.

Really, this thread hasn't gone well for you at all -- the data objectively disproves every argument you've tried to make. In addition to validating my original point that Battle shoots markedly better just inside the three point line than he does from beyond, the data also shows that he shoots better than 40% -- especially in clusters where he takes the highest concentration of shots [visually, more than 2/3 of those shots, which is why a straight average doesn't apply].

The data also shows trends from the entire season, not just the Duke game as you tried to insinuate.

"The numbers show 44% on one side and 29% on the other." Uh... no.

Other than that, how'd you enjoy the play, Mrs. Lincoln?

Even if you use 2/3 at 44% and 1/3 at 29% you still come out to 39% on those shots. You're great at English, maybe not so great at Math. My initial statement was that I didn't believe he is shooting much over 40% on long 2s...he's not. So please keep telling me how I'm wrong and you're right.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Just looking at the data presented, I'd envision that it would be an easy conversation to have with Tyus, with some clearly informative insights:

• You're only shooting ~30% from three point range. If you have a good shot from out there, you've got the green light to take it -- but recognize that if you take a dribble or two inside the arc, your chance of making the shot increases dramatically by about 1/3. So don't just "settle" for threes, get to a spot where you're more comfortable.

Actually, from a pure math standpoint, the staff should be indifferent between Tyus shooting a 2 from the right side inside the line but outside the paint vs a 3 from the right side as the expected points per shot are almost identical (29% from 3 = 44% from 2)

Do you have these shot charts for every SU player? It would be great to see the ones for Hughes, Brissett and for Howard from last year vs this year.

It would allow to see where each player is most effective, and ineffective, and also compare shots across players to see where our most efficient offense really comes from.

BTW, not for nothing but you and Chegg are actually having a pretty decent discussion/debate and the info you presented is terrific. But if the two of you insist on insulting each other, it will just degenerate...

The last few days have actually been really good in terms of threads since so much of the negativity has disappeared, at least until our next loss. Let's enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[RF2044]

Even if you use 2/3 at 44% and 1/3 at 29% you still come out to 39% on those shots. You're great at English, maybe not so great at Math. My initial statement was that I didn't believe he is shooting much over 40% on long 2s...he's not. So please keep telling me how I'm wrong and you're right.

Only he is -- markedly better, in fact, from three quarters of the court.

Which is why averaging the data and drawing the conclusion you're insisting upon is flawed analysis, and not a very compelling argument. You're wrong because you look at that shot chart and conclude that he's only shooting 40% blanketly, when a far better interpretation is that he's shooting a lot better from everywhere except that one consolidated area on the left side of the court -- so don't shoot from there, and continue to shoot where you're making a much higher percentage of shots.

 

[chugg21]

Only he is -- markedly better, in fact, from three quarters of the court.

Which is why averaging the data and drawing the conclusion you're insisting upon is flawed analysis, and not a very compelling argument. You're wrong because you look at that shot chart and conclude that he's only shooting 40% blanketly, when a far better interpretation is that he's shooting a lot better from everywhere except that one consolidated area on the left side of the court -- so don't shoot from there, and continue to shoot where you're making a much higher percentage of shots.

Except no one was initially differentiating sides of the court. It was in regard to a specific distance from the hoop. I can't be wrong if my numbers still end up correct.

 

[RF2044]

Except no one was initially differentiating sides of the court. It was in regard to a specific distance from the hoop. I can't be wrong if my numbers still end up correct.

That's because we didn't have the data visually displayed initially -- now we do.

And in terms of that specific area we were discussing earlier, that band roughly two feet inside the three point line all the way around the court, I'm guessing that the negative modifying impact on the percentages would be even less, looking at how the data is distributed.

Following up on Forza's suggestion above, I'm going to wish everybody a happy Friday and disengage.

 

[721Comstock]

Speak for yourself. All season long, I've cringed every time he's pulled up a foot inside the arc, or stepped back with a defender in his face to take an 18 footer instead of what began as a 14 footer, only to be surprised when he routinely cans that shot even with a hand in his face. That observation is not just based upon the Duke game, and the data supports my contention.

The following breakdown for Tyus is from January 14, 2019:

Other than the left elbow extended, he shoots at what is classified as an above average clip from within 2 feet inside the three point line. It isn't an anecdotal observation -- the data bears it out.

Pay special attention to the shot volume data.

He's actually really good from mid-range, too--better than I gave him credit for--with the exception similarity of that cone extending from the left diagonal--clearly, not his spot on the floor. The coaching staff should use data like this to help him reduce taking shots from that area -- but otherwise, he's been strong taking DEEP shots just inside the three point line.

OK, so Tyus is "above average" from 3 of the 4 sectors inside the 3pt line, but outside of the paint.
44% = #BRAND.
Even though he's good at them, they're still a low-percentage shot in general.

And 3's are worth 1.5x 2's, so those %'s are all pretty much in line w/ his "mid-range" game, in terms of points per shot attempt.
29% on 3's = 43.5% on 2's
31% on 3's = 46.5% on 2's - his best % for anything other than AT THE RIM.

Tyus should take more L corner 3's, and layups/dunks.