Which is better?

[djcon57]

Very good post. This sentence sums it up for me - "I am also of the belief that regular season success generally leads to tournament success so yes, I take the regular season success all day every day."

YES! Just because it happened in 2016 as a low seed for us doesn't mean it happens on a regular basis. If you look at the final 4 participants over the years, your chances are much better if you have a really good regular season.

not to mention while it was brief, 2016 had an amazing run in Atlantis. They beat Duke at Duke. Played UVA and UNC close in 3 games, both 1 seeds They had some bad losses and had a hideous one and done in the big east tourney which hurt their seed...but they clearly had a chance to put it together vs good teams.

comparing that team to a team like last year or this year...it’s honestly not close and that’s the part I think some of us are pointing to.

 

[MSOrange]

To your point. Here is two charts which show the history of the tournament up until this year.
View attachment 196390

View attachment 196391

Thanks for the research! And another thing to remember is some of those lower seeds that made it did have really good regular seasons, but were low seeds due to their conference - George Mason, Wichita State, Loyola to name a few.

 

[Cuse1055]

I don’t believe in conspiracy theories. But that was a very tough draw we got in 2012 as you said. And that may have been one of the worst officiated games I have ever seen against Ohio State. As you said, we are not winning the title without Fab Melo but we could have deffinetly beat Ohio State.

Not looking at success. 2009-10 and 2011-12 may be my most fond memories. Those seasons were incredibly fun. The best offensive team and the best defensive team I can remember watching at Syracuse. Both were title contenders before the injury and suspension. Those teams play the season 10 times I think they win the title 5 times. That’s why I would rather regular season success. It’s a long winter, it brings joy. You can be proud of your team and you have hope. As someone above mentioned, it’s a 5 month enjoyment rather then a 3 week endeavor. I am also of the belief that regular season success generally leads to tournament success so yes, I take the regular season success all day every day.

My thoughts exactly. I’d rather have 4-5 months of fun and excitement and quite frankly something to look forward to during Syracuse winters. Yes the heartbreaks of tourney losses like in 87, 89, 90, 91, 92, 94, 95, 96, 00, 05, 10, 12, 13, 14 (wow we have had a lot of tourney heartbreaks including multiple overtime losses) sting and were tough to get over but it means you got there and had a successful season leading up to that point. I’d rather feel heartbreak than apathy, which is where some of us are heading with this string of mediocre regular seasons and being out of the national limelight. I miss being ranked and playing big time matchups on national television.

 

[dasher]

13 was better than 2003. 96 and 13 were both better than 87.

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This is the year after 34-3, right? And someone is saying that year was better than '03 and '10 and '12? Not in my book. I think we could have won it very easily in '13 We get a call or two against Michigan and we play Louisville without Ware. But those teams were better. than '87 or '03 or '10 or '12 I don't believe that for a second

 

[sufandu]

In order I would go with 2010, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2016.

I separate 2014 from 2010 and 2012 because the eye test said that team wasn't quite the same, even as we racked up the Ws. In hindsight, there were a few cracks visible in the 2013 team from the standpoint of difficulty with halfcourt offense compared to the previous teams that carried over to the 2014 team.

I don't think performance in the NCAA tournament, good or bad, negates the regular season, good or bad. If it has to be a choice of regular season or NCAA tournament, I'll take the regular season. The only exception would be a miraculous run that ends with a NC. I would rather enjoy all of the wins that come during an exciting regular season, from preseason tournaments to blowing out early season scrubs to beating conference rivals and competing for conference championships and the 3+ months of highlight plays and media attention that accompany it than I would the brief unlikely run to a FF following a disappointing season filled with frustrating losses and living on the bubble leading up to March.

I disagree with some of the opinions that team success is solely judged on what you do in the tournament. When you look back at a coach's legacy, FFs and NCs will certainly be a huge part of it. However, if you're talking about program perception from media, recruits, and rival fanbases, the regular season carries at least as much weight simply because of how long it is compared to a relatively brief tournament that can sometimes be a crapshoot. As an example, Virginia was respected for years within the conference before they won their recent NC. Did they get mocked for flaming out in the tournament? Sure, a little. But nobody looked at them as an easy win and beating them felt good. Even we were considered a stalwart in the Big East long before we won our NC despite having only two FFs in the 23 years (I didn't count the FF prior to the Big East era) leading up to that championship. That respect was because of our regular season and conference tournament success.

 

[CU44SE]

This is the year after 34-3, right? And someone is saying that year was better than '03 and '10 and '12? Not in my book. I think we could have won it very easily in '13 We get a call or two against Michigan and we play Louisville without Ware. But those teams were better. than '87 or '03 or '10 or '12 I don't believe that for a second

For some reason I had great confidence in beating Louisville that year. We just had to get past Michigan. And the refs boned us again. I hate blaming refs, I really do. But the 3 games I place all blame on refs is that over and back against Marquette in 2011 I believe? Ohio state in 2012, and that charge against triche (not to mention the foul on MCW with 140 left that Michigan ended up scoring 2 points on with free throws when triche intentionally fouled with 19 seconds left on shot clock and ultimately led to MCW’s ejection on next possession) and then triche’s tieing basket Morgan is moving the entire time! Not to mention down 3 with 15 seconds left and the play coming out of timeout was Cooney dribble drive floater.

 

[sufandu]

I don't blame you, NCAA runs are what get remembered. There were a number of SU teams better than 1996 (a 4 seed that only had to beat one higher seeded team before playing Kentucky) but that is one we are most nostalgic about.

Per SRS, 1988 Kansas is the 42nd best team in program history. But I bet it gets talked about the most.

I think we're nostalgic about it because we saw it as an end to what the first sanctions dragged us into and hoped it signaled a return to what we had prior. We remember that team more fondly than the previous few seasons but probably not as fondly as the late 80's teams that had tournament disappointments but great regular seasons.

 

[Owens guy]

Both are awesome on their own ways.

A great regular season puts me in a great mood all winter, a happy Syracusefan.com, and I love watching & following all of college basketball to see how Syracuse compares to other teams.

A surprise final four run gives me an incredible March after being frustrated for 4 months, the national press appreciating JB and Syracuse basketball and a nice t-shirt to wear for many years.

 

[kcsu]

Three goals each year
Make the tournament
Win ACC regular season
Win ACC tournament.

 

[OrangeDW]

I enjoyed 2010 and 2012 the most but I was also on campus during those years so it made them extra special. 2013 was both a good regular season and a good postseason year IMO. What made 2016 so special was it felt we could still succeed despite the sanctions, and that we would return to elite form soon.

These past 2-3 years have made me finally realized we're not the program we used to be, sadly.

I held out hope for the longest. I was all in on how we would be an NC contender in 2017, and then thought we were loaded with having everybody back in 2019...was thinking we’d be wire to wire top 25 and a high seed.

And even this year, I thought we’d be significantly better. Still feel like we could be a lot better than we have been.

This may finally be the one that breaks me, and makes me accept that it’s not happening and this is the new Syracuse. I said “may”. Still think come next fall I might be predicting that Benny and Kadary take us to the final four.

 

[Cusefan0307]

This is the year after 34-3, right? And someone is saying that year was better than '03 and '10 and '12? Not in my book. I think we could have won it very easily in '13 We get a call or two against Michigan and we play Louisville without Ware. But those teams were better. than '87 or '03 or '10 or '12 I don't believe that for a second

I didn’t say someone. I said the stats say on a per possession basis 2013 is our third best team in the past 25 years and the 6th best team ever under JB. Theres a lot of fans who act like we were some cinderella that year including the OP, but we weren’t. The team lost 9 games because the Big East was ridiculous before we left. Much better than anything the ACC has put out since we have joined.

 

[syrBossHogg]

I held out hope for the longest. I was all in on how we would be an NC contender in 2017, and then thought we were loaded with having everybody back in 2019...was thinking we’d be wire to wire top 25 and a high seed.

And even this year, I thought we’d be significantly better. Still feel like we could be a lot better than we have been.

This may finally be the one that breaks me, and makes me accept that it’s not happening and this is the new Syracuse. I said “may”. Still think come next fall I might be predicting that Benny and Kadary take us to the final four.

From 2014-18 I always thought we were one good player away from being a good team, most of the time it was missing either a PG or a well rounded C. And of course, a lot of teams can say they're one good player away from being a top 20/25 team. Back then, I chalked it up to us being unlucky with recruiting (with the imposed sanctions amplifying the misses), and a few of our guys leaving early for the NBA.

I think it was the 2018/19 season when I started to realize this was the new norm, and our talent/coaching wasn't what it used to be.

 

[721Comstock]

From 2014-18 I always thought we were one good player away from being a good team, most of the time it was missing either a PG or a well rounded C. And of course, a lot of teams can say they're one good player away from being a top 20/25 team. Back then, I chalked it up to us being unlucky with recruiting (with the imposed sanctions amplifying the misses), and a few of our guys leaving early for the NBA.

I think it was the 2018/19 season was when I started to realize this was the new norm, and our talent/coaching wasn't what it used to be.

I think your idea of “one player away” is pretty accurate.

And yes - that “one player” has often been a true PG, post-Ennis.

This year it’s 1.5 players:

CDB getting hurt started a cascade of changes (Marek at the 5 full time for starters), none of which were good.

The 0.5 is - Kadary not getting the minutes he deserves, although that is improving somewhat of late.

If you want some “one player away” nightmare fuel -
Imagine if Tyus Battle never flipped to Syracuse from Michigan?

< shudder >

 

[Orangezoo]

Yeah and without him we beat the number 1 team in the country on their court.

With some small thanks to Siva too for being awful in the clutch.

 

[syrBossHogg]

I think your idea of “one player away” is pretty accurate.

And yes - that “one player” has often been a true PG, post-Ennis.

This year it’s 1.5 players:

CDB getting hurt started a cascade of changes (Marek at the 5 full time for starters), none of which were good.

The 0.5 is - Kadary not getting the minutes he deserves, although that is improving somewhat of late.

If you want some “one player away” nightmare fuel -
Imagine if Tyus Battle never flipped to Syracuse from Michigan?

< shudder >

We might have gotten Kevin Huerter if Tyus never came, which would've been ok. Ideally we would've taken both of them but I think cause of the sanctions we could only take one.

IMO here's how I would breakdown the missing pieces for the seasons I mentioned
2014/15 - PG (Ennis)
2015/16 - C
2016/17 - C (also needed a PG to complement Gillon)
2017/18 - C
2018/19 - PG (also needed more offense from the C position)

 

[SWC75]

For some reason I had great confidence in beating Louisville that year. We just had to get past Michigan. And the refs boned us again. I hate blaming refs, I really do. But the 3 games I place all blame on refs is that over and back against Marquette in 2011 I believe? Ohio state in 2012, and that charge against triche (not to mention the foul on MCW with 140 left that Michigan ended up scoring 2 points on with free throws when triche intentionally fouled with 19 seconds left on shot clock and ultimately led to MCW’s ejection on next possession) and then triche’s tieing basket Morgan is moving the entire time! Not to mention down 3 with 15 seconds left and the play coming out of timeout was Cooney dribble drive floater.

Thanks to the refs, we were down Cooney, as a freshman, playing the point for the most important possession of the season. Picture Buddy at the point in the same situation - and he's a junior.

 

[SWC75]

I didn’t say someone. I said the stats say on a per possession basis 2013 is our third best team in the past 25 years and the 6th best team ever under JB. Theres a lot of fans who act like we were some cinderella that year including the OP, but we weren’t. The team lost 9 games because the Big East was ridiculous before we left. Much better than anything the ACC has put out since we have joined.

I have a hard time picturing the 2003, 2010, or 2012 teams losing 39-61 to Georgetown.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I have a hard time picturing the 2003, 2010, or 2012 teams losing 39-61 to Georgetown.

One game, and we lost to a Rutgers team in 2003 who had yet to win a game in the Big East. I didn’t say they were better than 2010 and 2012. I said the metrics show it’s the third best team in the past 25 seasons and we literally beat Georgetown a week later on a neutral court. Between the BET and NCAA T I remember that March more than March or 2012 or March or 2010.

 

[SWC75]

One game, and we lost to a Rutgers team in 2003 who had yet to win a game in the Big East. I didn’t say they were better than 2010 and 2012. I said the metrics show it’s the third best team in the past 25 seasons and we literally beat Georgetown a week later on a neutral court. Between the BET and NCAA T I remember that March more than March or 2012 or March or 2010.

But we're comparing seasons, not just Marches.

Against ranked teams the 2003 teams and the 2010 team were both 8-2. 2012 was 6-1. 2013 did play more of them but were 7-6.

 

[RF2044]

Having the better team is better. Which is marked by Season Performance.

The overall objective is to win the NCAA tournament. But, having the better team during the season is the best way to accomplish that. A winning streak during the tournament with a less-impressive season performance... that's very nice, but...

• The objective when you start a season is to win each game; win your conference; be ranked very highly to attract future players and prime tv broadcasts and PR; get the best NCAA seed to maximize your odds of succeeding in the tournament; and then to win the tournament.

For the purpose of illustrating the point, here's an exaggerated example:

A team that goes undefeated during the season, is ranked No. 1 from wire to wire, wins the ACC tournament, gets a No 1 seed, and then loses in the first round...

is better than

A team that goes 19-11, is never ranked top 25, finishes .500 in the ACC, loses in the first round of the ACC Tournament, is on the bubble but sneaks into the NCAA, gets the benefit of two higher-seeded potential opponents losing before we get to them, then wins a few games and reaches a Final Four.

NCAA runs get remembered... by those of us who are already fans. Which does nothing toward building the program. We don't build or maintain our legacy/heritage/image by being on the bubble and sneaking into a FF every ten years. Recruits don't recognize that stuff while they're in junior high and high school unless it happens while they're actively being recruited by us or they were already fans.

We are in a period of not signing top talent because we are in a long period of not being nationally relevant (ranked), not being nationally respected as a power. Sanctions may have had some role in all of that, but the kids don't know about sanctions. They know which teams play an exciting game, which ones get high, impactful draft picks, which ones are on tv a lot.

Agree 100%.

 

[Cusefan0307]

But we're comparing seasons, not just Marches.

Against ranked teams the 2003 teams and the 2010 team were both 8-2. 2012 was 6-1. 2013 did play more of them but were 7-6.

The last year of the Big East was probably the strongest the Big East was ever in that run. We had 5 games in the top 5 of KenPom and went 2-3. We played 10 games against the top 16 alone. The SOS that year was 11th. In 2012 it was 27th and 2010 36th.

My main point was I disagreed that that team was a Cinderella team and wasn’t that good. Four seeds aren’t Cinderella’s. According to metrics alone it would be favored against 2003 if they played in the same season.

Anyway I wonder if UConn remembers the Rudy Gay team that lost to George Mason better than the Kemba Walker team that won a few years later.

 

[OrangeDW]

Personally, I’d be good with having 1994, 1998, 2000, 2004 type teams almost every year, with the occasional overachieving 1996 deep tourney run once every 10 years.

Get back to going 23-8 and get a 4-5 seed and make the sweet 16 as the default. Not even asking for 1986-91 or 2009-14 lightning to strike again.

Let me turn on a game and see a #17 next to our name or something and let me think we have a legit chance to beat who we’re playing, and I’m thrilled.

 

[syrBossHogg]

I have a hard time picturing the 2003, 2010, or 2012 teams losing 39-61 to Georgetown.

The 2010 team did lose by double digits to 9 seed Louisville on the road. I think that Georgetown team was ranked in the top 10 at the time we played them.

I think the 2013 team's ceiling was as high as those three other teams, especially when Southerland/Triche/Fair were knocking down shots. But that team's floor was lower than the other 3 teams and they were more with their inconsistent play, hence why they lost more games in the regular season.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Here’s the problem with great regular seasons. 2005 we went 27-6 and won the BET, but one game in March ruined the entire year.

 

[OrangeDW]

The 2010 team did lose by double digits to 9 seed Louisville on the road. I think that Georgetown team was ranked in the top 10 at the time we played them.

I think the 2013 team's ceiling was as high as those three other teams, especially when Southerland/Triche/Fair were knocking down shots. But that team's floor was lower than the other 3 teams and they were more with their inconsistent play, hence why they lost more games in the regular season.

Yes. When the chips were down, we didn’t have a Carmelo/Wes/Waiters elite level guy on that 2013 team.

Probably the best defensive team we’ve had though. Those Indians/Marquette games were just absolutely ridiculous defense. We were a machine on that end when locked in.

edit: early in the year it looked like MCW was going to be that elite level guy. But offensively, he really had a pretty uneven season from like January on. The defense was always elite though.