More reality. We won at home. We have 4 away games. We, like everyone else, aren't the same on the road. It's going to be very tough. 4-2 would be wonderful.
Yes im doing this
- Thread starter CorduroyG
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Marsh01
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Yep. The ncaa is literally a pipe dream. We would need a miracle at this point.
Eric15
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I miss Marsh conference tourney projections. Even though our seed probably stinks at the moment.
Marsh01
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Maybe if we win a couple of more in a row they may come out of retirement.
BomberOrange
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If it were all based on NET this would all make sense, but UVA an NCAA team despite the loss last night. Still lots of hoops to play. I agree that the ncaa is a pipe dream for us.
Orangezoo
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We needed to find a way to win that Tenn game or have kept things closer in big games and won the FSU and BC games.
If the unthinkable happens and we win 6 straight our Net puts us back in the conversation and two wins over Pitt gives us a leg up on them
Cusefan0307
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Wake is in more trouble than UVA and possibly even Pitt. I think Pitt and UVA make the tournament. UVA is an 8 seed on the bracket matrix.
I wish it was reasonable to hope JT could regain his confidence and take open shots. Just last years version of JT would help this team so much.
tombacuse
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I don't believe the net rankings are factoring in last night yet on the NCAA site...We ARE dreaming here... but last night has the possibility of changing a season. IF Cuse won 7 straight ACC games inc a top 10, they'd be 22-9. Who knows what the computers say in that scenario but it absolutely is a possibility. There aren't late season cross over games anymore...to show conference strength head to head. Nova is 13-11 at 39 in net? c'mon losing almost half your games and the computer says you're top 40? they lost to Penn, Drexel and St joes. 2-3 in Q3 games... Cuse being in the madness is an enormous dream, but it is possible.
OptimusOtto
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NET is such a negative on the sport and how teams/games are discussed. I understand what it's trying to accomplish but so much of the broadcast yesterday was how detrimental this Q2 loss would be to UNC's hope at a #1 seed. We shouldn't be viewing basketball through that lens. There's still a month until Selection Sunday, so much will change between now and then (including hopefully our NET improving to the point that this is a Q1 but that's not the point).
I also blame Jim Phillips for letting the narrative around the conference to crumble. We pull off our biggest win under Red and even Pitt had a great upset at Virginia. Meanwhile the narrative is "even the best ACC teams are underwhelming." Whereas other media darling conferences have those upsets and it "shows how tough these leagues are and there are no easy games."
I also blame Jim Phillips for letting the narrative around the conference to crumble. We pull off our biggest win under Red and even Pitt had a great upset at Virginia. Meanwhile the narrative is "even the best ACC teams are underwhelming." Whereas other media darling conferences have those upsets and it "shows how tough these leagues are and there are no easy games."
gmoney44
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I can’t do it to my self. I’ll re-examine at the end of the regular season.
Jeremy L.
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Agreed. For me, this year felt like a trial run for Red as far as how he coaches and adjusts. The tournament would be great as that is the standard, but what we've seen from him has me so excited for the future of Syracuse basketball when he gets the guys he wants.
Let's try and win games. The rest will take care of itself whether it's this year or down the road.
pokercuse08
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I haven't paid attention to the bubble the last few years, but are they so reliant on NET now that we're looking at a 18-15 Villanova team getting in over a 22-11 Syracuse team?
Meanwhile if they still used RPI, we're 28th and they're 103rd. Like we're obviously not the 28th best team and they're obviously not the 39th best team, nor are we as bad as 85th nor they as 103rd.
Does the W-L record and eyeball test not matter at all anymore?
BomberOrange
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Yes. The NET is a tool to help evaluate its not the end all, be all. Teams will not be seeded 1-68 using the NET (yes I know many auto-qualifiers wouldn't be in the top 68)
rottweiler44
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Most important is how the team closes out the season. As far as I am concerned we will all be able to tell if they are playing like a tourney team by the way they play on the road and over the remaining games of the season. If they close out last 10 games at an 8-2 clip it will be hard to deny this team a bid.
As far as the NET is concerned this team has "gamed" the system in the most negative way possible and it shows. Road blowouts, competitive games slip away to double digit margins, their largest margin of victory (Chaminade) not counting in NET? All huge detriments. Again, if this team goes 8-2 last 10 that will feel like an NCAA tourney team to me whether it happens or not.
As far as the NET is concerned this team has "gamed" the system in the most negative way possible and it shows. Road blowouts, competitive games slip away to double digit margins, their largest margin of victory (Chaminade) not counting in NET? All huge detriments. Again, if this team goes 8-2 last 10 that will feel like an NCAA tourney team to me whether it happens or not.
pokercuse08
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OK so right now Wake is squarely on the bubble no matter who you ask, and we're nowhere near it according to most. Obviously getting blown out there doesn't do us any favors.
But comparing resumes gives us an idea of how far out of the picture we should be. Based on the NAA website and a couple articles, these are the general criteria for resumes. Head-to-head and common opponents are also available when they're comparing two teams, as well as imbalanced conference schedules. I'm not looking at this as if these are the last two teams for one spot, though. Just looking to see how far we are from a bubble resume.
So record and road record are basically a push, Q3/Q4 are basically a push.
They're 5-8 vs Q1/Q2 and so are we, but we have a better record vs. both Q1 and Q2 split out. Advantage 'Cuse.
They smoke us in all the computer rankings, and we smoke them in all the strength of schedule. So ideally, down the stretch we'd close that gap down to make it tighter than the gap between our strength of schedules.
So what we need to do is rack up some wins and just as importantly, improve our computer rankings, which means beating the spread by a lot. Pitt just jumped from 60 to 53 with an 11 point win at UVA, and UVA dropped 9 spots. They beat the spread by 17.5 points. We jumped six spots for beating the spread by 14 vs UN.
In particular we need to beat the spread by a lot in some of our road games, and if we lose, we need to cover. If we do that, going 4-2 might get us onto the bubble and make our first couple ACCT games very meaningful.
In addition, we have the following wins that could improve or weaken. We don't necessarily need them to pull a big upset, we need them to beat the spread handily a few times.
Oregon #63 (Neutral Q1 1-50)
Miami #69 (Home Q2 31-75)
NC State #80 (Home Q2 31-75)
Among our remaining games, we have...
@GT #141, Q3 (Road Q2 76-135)
@NC State #80, Q2 (Road Q1 1-75)
Va Tech #60, Q2 (Home Q2 31-75)
@ Clemson #29, Q1 (Road Q1 1-75)
So there's a chance @NC State becomes a Q1 game, and @ Clemson will be one. @GT could become a Q2 game, and we want Va Tech to hold on as a Q2 game.
So we are rooting for:
Oregon
Miami
NC State
Georgia Tech
We need these teams to beat spreads, not necessarily win. Likewise, winning but failing to cover is bad.
Here's how we could see a big swing up in the next week:
1. We crush the spread in a W at Georgia Tech
2. NC State wins @ Clemson
3. We win @ NC State
In that scenario the win @ Clemson would hopefully move NC State up more than their loss to us would drop them, and we could pick up a Q1 win at NC State, and possibly move up into the low 70's in NET. If that plays out and we're sitting at 18-9, 3-7 Q1, 3-1 Q2, low 70's NET, I think we're squarely into the bubble conversation.
But comparing resumes gives us an idea of how far out of the picture we should be. Based on the NAA website and a couple articles, these are the general criteria for resumes. Head-to-head and common opponents are also available when they're comparing two teams, as well as imbalanced conference schedules. I'm not looking at this as if these are the last two teams for one spot, though. Just looking to see how far we are from a bubble resume.
Wake Forest | Syracuse | |
| W-L | 16-8 | 16-9 |
| NET | 37th | 85th |
| Q1 | 0-4 | 2-7 |
| Q2 | 5-4 | 3-1 |
| Q3 | 5-0 | 6-1 |
| Q4 | 6-0 | 4-0 |
| BPI | 29th | 104th |
| Sagarin | 78th | 93rd |
| Pomeroy | 27th | 88th |
| Overall Strength of Schedule ESPN | 62nd | 25th |
| Overall SOS KenPom | 79th | 22nd |
| Non-Conf Strength of Schedule ESPN | 164th | 83rd |
| Non-Conf SOS KenPom | 251st | 87th |
| Road Record | 2-6 | 2-5 |
So record and road record are basically a push, Q3/Q4 are basically a push.
They're 5-8 vs Q1/Q2 and so are we, but we have a better record vs. both Q1 and Q2 split out. Advantage 'Cuse.
They smoke us in all the computer rankings, and we smoke them in all the strength of schedule. So ideally, down the stretch we'd close that gap down to make it tighter than the gap between our strength of schedules.
So what we need to do is rack up some wins and just as importantly, improve our computer rankings, which means beating the spread by a lot. Pitt just jumped from 60 to 53 with an 11 point win at UVA, and UVA dropped 9 spots. They beat the spread by 17.5 points. We jumped six spots for beating the spread by 14 vs UN.
In particular we need to beat the spread by a lot in some of our road games, and if we lose, we need to cover. If we do that, going 4-2 might get us onto the bubble and make our first couple ACCT games very meaningful.
In addition, we have the following wins that could improve or weaken. We don't necessarily need them to pull a big upset, we need them to beat the spread handily a few times.
Oregon #63 (Neutral Q1 1-50)
Miami #69 (Home Q2 31-75)
NC State #80 (Home Q2 31-75)
Among our remaining games, we have...
@GT #141, Q3 (Road Q2 76-135)
@NC State #80, Q2 (Road Q1 1-75)
Va Tech #60, Q2 (Home Q2 31-75)
@ Clemson #29, Q1 (Road Q1 1-75)
So there's a chance @NC State becomes a Q1 game, and @ Clemson will be one. @GT could become a Q2 game, and we want Va Tech to hold on as a Q2 game.
So we are rooting for:
Oregon
Miami
NC State
Georgia Tech
We need these teams to beat spreads, not necessarily win. Likewise, winning but failing to cover is bad.
Here's how we could see a big swing up in the next week:
1. We crush the spread in a W at Georgia Tech
2. NC State wins @ Clemson
3. We win @ NC State
In that scenario the win @ Clemson would hopefully move NC State up more than their loss to us would drop them, and we could pick up a Q1 win at NC State, and possibly move up into the low 70's in NET. If that plays out and we're sitting at 18-9, 3-7 Q1, 3-1 Q2, low 70's NET, I think we're squarely into the bubble conversation.
OrlandoCuse
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Blowouts but also our lack of offensive rebounding. That metric has really killed our NET. Seems like it’s really overweighted in the algorithm considering our record.
CardiacCuse
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i agree 100%
some of the net rankings are absolute jokes relative to overall record
I hope the NCAA wont just use the NET only decider...and I dont think they would be that stupid.
I think the NET is only a tool...a suggester...not the final voice.
CardiacCuse
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newsflash!: UNC has more home losses than Syracuse does this season!
Syracuse is like 12-1 at home this season...umm...losing at the dome shouldnt be that damaging...even to a top 10 team.
I couldnt hate the entire narrative around NET etc more
jncuse
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A team's NET and quality of resume are not nearly as linear as you are implying above. I suspect you were doing it in that way to try to simplify the analysis, but I think it may have over-simplified things too much.
We agree on the following:
1) The game helped our NIT chances more than our NCAA chances (Obviously)
2) From your prior post I think we both agree that this team going 5-1 to close the regular season is a herculean and unlikely task. (I'll get back to the 5-1 below)
The problem I have with your analysis is that you appear to be making a linear correlation between a team's NET and the quality of its NCAA resume or NIT resume. And that is clearly not the way it the NCAA or NIT committee does things (except for 12 NIT spots)
a) While our NET is #85, or tournament resume is much stronger than #85. We know that margin has killed our NET - but those are not the things that the committee looks at -- Q1/Q2 wins, Q1/Q2 win%, # of bad losses are the things they focus on, not individual NET. Just go to the Warren Nolan Nitty Gritty - you can fairly easily find a dozen teams with NET's above us that have weaker resumes. And its hard to find any teams with a NET below #85 that has a resume better than us.
That is not to say we have a NCAA tournament worthy resume right now either. We don't and we have serious work to do.
b) We have seen P6 teams with a NET of #40 miss. And those with a NET of #77 get in (thanks to Wiseman for finding those details earlier). Last year we had Pitt with a NET of #67 get in. In the BIG last year #40 Rutgers and #80 Wisconsin were treated basically the same by the committee. Once you get between #40-#70 your NET doesn't have that strong a correlation to the quality of your resume.
So where am I heading ...
Regarding the NCAA - I think we both agree that 5-1 will be very difficult to close. But I am fairly certain we disagree on where we are if we close 5-1. To me if we close at 5-1, we will likely be very much around the line (probably just below it). Really wish we didn't have that Q3 loss to FSU so that our resume could be clean out of Q1/Q2 right now. But our Q1/Q2/bad loss metrics will certainly be satisfactory if we go 5-1. Will it be enough entering ACC week, probably not, but it will not be far off. Of course as I say when ever these things are discussed, we will likely never find out who is right or wrong.
Regarding the NIT - I'm going to make a separate post on this, but we are a near lock for the NIT. Yes there are 12 of the 32 auto bids, that we will likely not get. But there are 20 selections, and they no longer grant auto spots to regular season champs. As of now, we easily get one of those 20 spots. The NIT is going to be the P6 invitational this year under the new format.
CardiacCuse
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the 4 seed in the ACC is there for the taking
get that...and I think the team has a good chance of getting into the NCAA
the human element of everything will matter to the selection committee
seeing what red has dealt with as a 1st year coach replacing a legend...I just think the committee will help red out if there;s a 50/50 situation
double bye in ACCT would be gigantic imo
get that...and I think the team has a good chance of getting into the NCAA
the human element of everything will matter to the selection committee
seeing what red has dealt with as a 1st year coach replacing a legend...I just think the committee will help red out if there;s a 50/50 situation
double bye in ACCT would be gigantic imo
jncuse
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I think there a few interesting conversations to be had in comparing us vs others. But we have to win the next 2 road games before really meriting putting any effort into it from my end.
I'll just make 2 points though:
1) As usual the teams around the bubble have holes -- look at the matrix. The gap is significant, but maybe not as large as one initially thinks.
2) Road wins get juiced by the NET.
realorange
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But in your wildest dreams, wouldn't you like to see us be able to play UConn?
OrlandoCuse
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Double Bye in the ACCT is only beneficial if we win the first game. If we lose it could actually end up hurting us.
