Yes im doing this | Page 4 | Syracusefan.com

Yes im doing this

A team's NET and quality of resume are not nearly as linear as you are implying above. I suspect you were doing it in that way to try to simplify the analysis, but I think it may have over-simplified things too much.

We agree on the following:
1) The game helped our NIT chances more than our NCAA chances (Obviously)
2) From your prior post I think we both agree that this team going 5-1 to close the regular season is a herculean and unlikely task. (I'll get back to the 5-1 below)

The problem I have with your analysis is that you appear to be making a linear correlation between a team's NET and the quality of its NCAA resume or NIT resume. And that is clearly not the way it the NCAA or NIT committee does things (except for 12 NIT spots)
a) While our NET is #85, or tournament resume is much stronger than #85. We know that margin has killed our NET - but those are not the things that the committee looks at -- Q1/Q2 wins, Q1/Q2 win%, # of bad losses are the things they focus on, not individual NET. Just go to the Warren Nolan Nitty Gritty - you can fairly easily find a dozen teams with NET's above us that have weaker resumes. And its hard to find any teams with a NET below #85 that has a resume better than us.

That is not to say we have a NCAA tournament worthy resume right now either. We don't and we have serious work to do.

b) We have seen P6 teams with a NET of #40 miss. And those with a NET of #77 get in (thanks to Wiseman for finding those details earlier). Last year we had Pitt with a NET of #67 get in. In the BIG last year #40 Rutgers and #80 Wisconsin were treated basically the same by the committee. Once you get between #40-#70 your NET doesn't have that strong a correlation to the quality of your resume.

So where am I heading ...

Regarding the NCAA - I think we both agree that 5-1 will be very difficult to close. But I am fairly certain we disagree on where we are if we close 5-1. To me if we close at 5-1, we will likely be very much around the line (probably just below it). Really wish we didn't have that Q3 loss to FSU so that our resume could be clean out of Q1/Q2 right now. But our Q1/Q2/bad loss metrics will certainly be satisfactory if we go 5-1. Will it be enough entering ACC week, probably not, but it will not be far off. Of course as I say when ever these things are discussed, we will likely never find out who is right or wrong.

Regarding the NIT - I'm going to make a separate post on this, but we are a near lock for the NIT. Yes there are 12 of the 32 auto bids, that we will likely not get. But there are 20 selections, and they no longer grant auto spots to regular season champs. As of now, we easily get one of those 20 spots. The NIT is going to be the P6 invitational this year under the new format.
The margain of loss is really hurting us right now. Its one thing to lose but another to get blown out 5-6 times
 
Double Bye in the ACCT is only beneficial if we win the first game. If we lose it could actually end up hurting us.
I was thinking the same thing. If our resume needs wins going into the ACCT, playing an easier first game helps us a lot. If we lose the first game, it doesn't matter who we played.

A single bye also ensures we play a team coming off a nice victory, and prevents us just getting another quad3 win we don't need.
 
Double Bye in the ACCT is only beneficial if we win the first game. If we lose it could actually end up hurting us.
a 6 rotation playing back to back to back has zero chance vs a duke etc...best chance is to go far in ACCT, imo

not just win vs some middle of the pack squad...and then get bounced the next day


you think an extra game would be worth it?

i dont...bc too many games back to back is simply impossible...especially without depth
 
a 6 rotation playing back to back to back has zero chance vs a duke etc...best chance is to go far in ACCT, imo

not just win vs some middle of the pack squad...and then get bounced the next day


you think an extra game would be worth it?

i dont...bc too many games back to back is simply impossible...especially without depth
It’s unlikely we win the ACCT regardless of byes. Getting wins will matter. Losing our first game, regardless of which round, won’t be beneficial.
 
It’s unlikely we win the ACCT regardless of byes. Getting wins will matter. Losing our first game, regardless of which round, won’t be beneficial.
its unlikley beating the 8th seed in the ACCT is going to do anything for the resume.

i'd rather play less games and try to win the tourney than play more games and get some wins against scrub teams
 
4 seed gets to avoid 2 and 3 seeds until final - in this case maybe UVA and Duke

top 4 seeds have to win 3 games to win tourney

10 seed and lower have to win 5...in 5 consecutive days!! its literally impossible, imo

I honestly cant beleive people are so beaten down that they dont think getting a top seed in the ACCT would be beneficial

for me having a bad seed has been a huge factor in this team not doing well in the past in ACCT
 
16-9 (7-7)

At georgia tech
At nc state
Vs notre dame
Vs va tech
At louisville
At clemson

They wont win their next 5, but they are all winnable, so IF they do theyd be 21-9 (12-7). We’d probably be in the bubble conversation with 1 last shot at a signature road win.

I hate myself for doing this.

Hopefully 4 more wins there. At NC State and at Clemson are asking a lot.
 
Here is the reality of an ncaa or nit bid

Last nights win helped our NIT bid more than our ncaa bid

I just pulled up the NET ranking, ordering the ACC teams in Order… we are the 10th ACC team in NET rankings

UNC (11), Duke (16), Clemson (29), Wake (37)should get the four NCAA bids

Then, Virginia (41) and Pittsburgh (53) will probably get the two automatic NIT bids

Then, Virginia Tech (60) and Miami (69) have good chance to get NIT at large bids or potentially the auto NIT bids, if Virginia or Pitt managed to sneak into the dance and open up their spot

Then it’s Wolfpack (80, Syracuse (85), Boston College (90) on the outside, looking in, trying to get towards the NIT ….

There’s your reality

Our post season ended when we lost 3 out of 4.
 
Hard to look too far ahead with how Jekyll and Hyde this team has been but I think this is a high level overview of our potential path:
- 6-0, 1 ACCT win should be in
- 5-1, would assume we’d need 2 ACCT wins or 1 massive win (Duke/UNC)
- 4-2 or worse, win the ACCT
 
I’d be curious what the most Q1 wins are by a team missing the tournament. Probably a team with several horrific losses and overall .500 record. Not sure that’s possible to check (paging jncuse )

Our 16-17 team would have been a really interesting one with the current NET.
 
Head scratching comparison is indeed Pitt:

We beat Pitt twice! (which is good)

Pitt has won @ Duke, @ Virginia, and against Wake Forest…..who beat us by an average of 25 points! (which is NOT good)

Not sure what's more head scratching, this, or all the hot women Pete Davidson has remarkably been with. ;)
 
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Any remote chance we had of making the NCAAT just ended today with the loss to GaTech. We should focus on trying to win 4 more games and hopefully get a NIT invite.
 
Any remote chance we had of making the NCAAT just ended today with the loss to GaTech. We should focus on trying to win 4 more games and hopefully get a NIT invite.
A 20 win season is a moral victory and I hate the concept of moral victories. It could also help recruiting. It is an easy talking point.
 
Good thing we did this while we could still do this. Now let's go beat NC State and renew our false hope! For maximum pain, they should beat NC State, ND, and Va Tech so we're all like, "OMG if they just beat Clemson, we have a shot!" Then they can go get shellacked by Louisville and rip our hearts out again.
 
A 20 win season is a moral victory and I hate the concept of moral victories. It could also help recruiting. It is an easy talking point.

I don't see us getting there now. This was one of our more winnable road games. We still have 3 more coming.
 
16-9 (7-7)

At georgia tech
At nc state
Vs notre dame
Vs va tech
At louisville
At clemson

They wont win their next 5, but they are all winnable, so IF they do theyd be 21-9 (12-7). We’d probably be in the bubble conversation with 1 last shot at a signature road win.

I hate myself for doing this.
I always love the karma silly post like this bring to the team!
 

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