Not to be a naysayer, but there is almost no quantitative evidence to suggest that lacrosse will be anything more than a niche draw for years to come. Heck, soccer has a 50 year head start and it's still fairly niche.
Volume of ACC Network game coverage will rival Big Ten, SEC linear channels
# As I mentioned in Monday night's post, the SEC, Big Ten and Pacific 12 networks show the difficulty in projecting how much revenue the ACC's new venture might generate. Clay Travis took a very detailed stab at it in his Outkickthecoverage.com column, but let's take a different approach.
Matching the SEC and Big Ten's estimated per-school network shares of $7.5 million-$10 million annually is a pipe dream given the ACC's smaller fan base, so let's set a modest base of $5 million.
Multiply the $5 million by 14 fulltime members and you get $70 million. A quarter share for Notre Dame -- that's the Irish's take of other conference revenue -- bumps the total to $71.25 million.
But the ACC doesn't distribute 100 percent of revenue to its schools. The most recent rate was 92.5 percent. So to send $71.25 million to members, the league would need $77.03 million in annual network windfall.
Since ESPN will split profits with the ACC, the network would need to net $154.06 million. Travis estimates annual network expenses at $100 million, bringing the needed revenue to $254.06 million.
Can the ACC Network, by 2019-20, generate that much in subscription fees, with monthly rates ranging from $1 to 25 cents based on location? In a cord-cutting era, can ESPN get the ACC Network in the 60 million-plus homes it likely would take to produce those fees?
The answers will be years in the making.
Clay Travis is an SEC homer - take anything he says with a grain of salt - just a cut above Christopher Lambert the Dude of WVa. And for the record please note that the ACC distributed a higher % of money in 2014-2015 than did any other conference:
"The ACC led all power conferences in percentage of revenue distributed to members. The league’s 2014-15 rate was 92.5 percent, followed by the Big Ten's 91.7, Big 12’s 88, Southeastern Conference’s 86.8 and Pacific 12’s 68.5, those latter three percentages compiled by the San Jose Mercury News’ Jon Wilner." Link ACC tax return shows commitment to channel project, 33-percent revenue increase
Cuse Legacy, you're pretty smart so don't get bamboozled. These ACC networks are sending shockwaves throughout the NCAA as one on-line report (which I can't locate now) had as a subtitle.
We have heard this before but now I beleive there is actual evidence that supports this...Lax is blowing up in the Southeast, Mid-west & west...Not too mention there is a number of schools who have recently created lax programs..Lax is more exciting than baseball and that is coming from someone who watches a ton of womens lax where the whistle blows every second...soccer is well, soccer. Maybe lax wont go past niche, but I’m making my predictions based on the growth of the sport and the growing popularity of MLL. This is also the type of content that will fill up a ‘digital network’ and the ACC network. It’s popular.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that colleges are adding the sport as mentioned below, (even colleges in Alabama are adding the sport) and Cleveland St and Hampton are adding men’s D1. Why would they in light of expenses and title 9 ?
Utah looks like they’re making the jump here shortly.
Utah might add lacrosse, and that's a bigger deal than you realize - Today's "U"
Growth of lacrosse, particularly in the Pac-12, is potentially a big deal even if you aren’t a fan of the sport. Television contracts and the growth of broadcast institutions such as the Pac-12 Network are huge factors as more potential shakeups loom on the college sports landscape.
With streaming and mobile options continuing to evolve the major conferences are more than ever in the business of creating content as much as sponsoring sports. Lacrosse expansion fits both bills, giving a league such as the Pac-12 games to sell to its TV partners and more incentive for cable and satellite providers to get the Pac-12 Network on in big East Coast markets such as New York/New Jersey and Washington D.C./Baltimore.
It’s likely no coincidence the Big Ten, the league that pioneered the idea of a conference TV network, has begun sanctioning lacrosse.
If BYU and other Pac-12 schools are prepared to follow Utah, the Utes relatively quiet move is potentially a very big deal for all of college sports.
Growth
This is a US Lacrosse article from a year ago.
National Lacrosse Participation Grows 3.5 Percent in 2014
A total of 39 schools added varsity programs in 2014 alone, including NCAA Division I men’s programs at Boston University, Furman, Monmouth and Richmond and women’s programs at Colorado, Elon, Mercer and Michigan.
NCAA Report
NCAA Report: Lacrosse is Fastest-Growing College Sport
New Varsity College Programs
New Varsity College Programs ~ The Growth Blog - Chronicling the Growth of the Sport of Lacrosse
soccer is well, soccer. Maybe lax wont go past niche, but I’m making my predictions based on the growth of the sport and the growing popularity of MLL. This is also the type of content that will fill up a ‘digital network’ and the ACC network. It’s popular.
This guy is reductionist. He divides the ACC market into 9 states and then uses 'teams per state' to determine "popularity". Based on this analysis, he concludes that New York is questionable for ACC NW. Not much substance there.
the games people play and the games people watch just aren't the same thing and we have decades of proof.There's many ways to define popularity and measure growth, and I really don't want to be antagonistic about this at all. Yes, participation in lacrosse has grown considerably. There is a tremendous lag between participation and development of a large scale TV/media audience. Sometimes that transition from participatory popularity to fan base/media audience popularity never happens at all. Hence my comment about soccer.
I mean, MLL averages about 4-5K people per game, and it really hasn't grown in 10 years:
Major League Lacrosse - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
And I can tell you from direct experience, it doesn't draw flies for ratings or streaming.
I like lacrosse, my son plays it and it's a fabulous sport. So don't get me wrong, I'm no hater. But in context of this discussion, how it adds value to a network, it's volume inventory. And it will not be premium inventory for more years than I expect to be in my line of work.