Bubble Watch - Week of February 11

[Dave85]

Our RPI is 65 today. Who knows after tomorrow when they recalculate.

 

[jncuse]

Clemson was the 5th last team out (9 spots behind us). In itself this is not bad, but the biggest issue for Clemson is lost time.

Since the rankings were tabulated before last night's game, we can also add Rhode Island's game from last night.

Rhode Island was the second last team out (6 spots behind us). A-10 teams don't get as many quality win chances at home as P5 teams. This was a badly missed opportunity for them.

So far today, the 10 teams below (last 4 in, first 6 out), are 1-3.

Michigan St vs Iowa (6:00)
Marquette lost vs Georgetown
Tennessee vs Georgia (4:00)
Michigan at Indiana (tomorrow)
Illinois St vs Bradley (10:00)
Rhode Island lost vs Dayton
Arkansas at LSU (8:30)
Indiana vs Michigan (tomorrow)
Clemson lost at Duke
Wake Forest won vs NC ST

Currently the 10 teams behind us are 1-3. 5-5 would be a positive result.

 

[jncuse]

Our RPI is 65 today. Who knows after tomorrow when they recalculate.

If we get to 11 wins RPI takes care of itself -- will end up around 60. At that point the rest of our resume will speak for itself. Don't worry about it too much, as a standalone number it does not have much value to the committee unless it's really bad. Worry more about our ability to get to 11 wins -- that will be tougher part to overcome in my view.

As an FYI our live RPI is at 71. It will move up or down a few spots throughout the day but will end right around 71.

 

[jncuse]

I like that Texas Tech lost to Kansas. It was a close one.

Yep, that is the type of win that springboards you up the rankings like we did last week.

 

[Louie and Bouie]

Is it the majority feeling that if we win 3 out of the last 5 (any combo) and don't go 0-1 in the ACC tourney than we're in?

That's my feeling.

 

[jncuse]

Not that we are in much of a position to comment after today, but... yikes

Georgia may start sneaking up on the far realms of the bubble, but an SEC team cannot lose at home to a non tourney team.

So the 10 teams immediately behind us on the matrix, are now 1-4 today. (Too bad we did not win...)

 

[jncuse]

Michigan St, the 4th last team in (1 spot behind Syracuse), wins a home game it should.

So after this result the 10 teams behind us are now 2-4 today.

Arkansas the 3rd team out (7 spots behind Syracuse) may have a really bad loss here. This would make the record 2-5, and since Michigan plays Indiana tomorrow, the next 10 would finish with at least 6 losses. Considering we loss, this is about the best we could have hoped for today.

 

[MSOrange]

View attachment 89319

Michigan St, the 4th last team in (1 spot behind Syracuse), wins a home game it should.

So after this result the 10 teams behind us are now 2-4 today.

View attachment 89320

Arkansas the 3rd team out (7 spots behind Syracuse) may have a really bad loss here. This would make the record 2-5, and since Michigan plays Indiana tomorrow, the next 10 would finish with at least 6 losses. Considering we loss, this is about the best we could have hoped for today.

Losing to a Johnny Jones coached team should automatically eliminate Arkansas.

 

[bpo57]

Is it the majority feeling that if we win 3 out of the last 5 (any combo) and don't go 0-1 in the ACC tourney than we're in?

That's my feeling.

Sounds right to me. Not gonna be easy. In fact I hope I'm wrong but I think going 3 for 5 is less than a 50/50 proposition.

 

[jncuse]

Losing to a Johnny Jones coached team should automatically eliminate Arkansas.

Should have remembered there was still a half to go before I projected a potential loss. This is LSU afterall.

 

[orangenirvana]

In other news...Saint Mary's sucks. SUNY Brockport has a more physically talented team. A well-coached, try-hard team of plucky guys who would be lucky to finish ahead of BC if they played in the ACC.

 

[pearl31]

Sounds right to me. Not gonna be easy. In fact I hope I'm wrong but I think going 3 for 5 is less than a 50/50 proposition.

you're wrong, just as you were last year

 

[20Plus]

Sounds right to me. Not gonna be easy. In fact I hope I'm wrong but I think going 3 for 5 is less than a 50/50 proposition.

Clueless

 

[bpo57]

Clueless

How so?

 

[bpo57]

you're wrong, just as you were last year

What part am I wrong about?

The winning three out of five gets you in or the likelihood of winning 3 of 5.

Like I said, I hope I am wrong so don't take that prediction personally.

SU has five games left. They'll be betting underdogs in all but one of those games (home against GT). Hence the comment that it's less than a 50/50 proposition. Does that mean they can't win three? Of course not. Certainly stranger things have happened.

 

[pearl31]

What part am I wrong about?

The winning three out of five gets you in or the likelihood of winning 3 of 5.

Like I said, I hope I am wrong so don't take that prediction personally.

SU has five games left. They'll be betting underdogs in all but one of those games (home against GT). Hence the comment that it's less than a 50/50 proposition. Does that mean they can't win three? Of course not. Certainly stranger things have happened.

Sorry, I thought you were saying that it's less than a 50/50 proposition for SU to get in the tourney if they win 3 of the next 5

 

[bpo57]

Sorry, I thought you were saying that it's less than a 50/50 proposition for SU to get in the tourney if they win 3 of the next 5

No worries - that's why I said "sounds about right" to the poster that opined that 3 out of 5 (plus an ACC win) would get it done.

 

[20Plus]

Sorry, I thought you were saying that it's less than a 50/50 proposition for SU to get in the tourney if they win 3 of the next 5

Me too

 

[20Plus]

If they win three out of five it's about a 90% chance we're in the tournament! I thought you were saying less then 50 if that was to happen.

 

[20Plus]

W-Michigan St vs Iowa (6:00)--bad
L-Marquette vs Georgetown-- Good
L-Tennessee vs Georgia (4:00)--Good
Sun-Michigan at Indiana --tbd
W-Illinois St vs Bradley (10:00)--bad
L-Rhode Island vs Dayton--Good
W-Arkansas at LSU (8:30)bad
L-Clemson at Duke--Good
W-Wake Forest vs NC ST

4good/4Bad

 

[bpo57]

If they win three out of five it's about a 90% chance we're in the tournament! I thought you were saying less then 50 if that was to happen.

So I'm not clueless?

 

[bpo57]

If they win three out of five it's about a 90% chance we're in the tournament! I thought you were saying less then 50 if that was to happen.

Never one to leave well enough alone - I'd say that your 90% prediction seems a bit bold to me. If we go 3-2 but lose the first ACC tournament game we'll be 19-13 with several hideous losses. At that point we're going to need a little bit of help only in the sense that we can ill afford some tournament upsets where some surprise teams take automatic bids. I think our chances would be above 50% for sure but I don't know about 90%.

 

[pearl31]

Never one to leave well enough alone - I'd say that your 90% prediction seems a bit bold to me. If we go 3-2 but lose the first ACC tournament game we'll be 19-13 with several hideous losses. At that point we're going to need a little bit of help only in the sense that we can ill afford some tournament upsets where some surprise teams take automatic bids. I think our chances would be above 50% for sure but I don't know about 90%.

A) All of the bubble teams will have less-than-stellar records
B) We'll have exactly one "hideous" loss
C) We'll be in the tournament if we go 11-7 in the ACC

 

[bpo57]

A) All of the bubble teams will have less-than-stellar records
B) We'll have exactly one "hideous" loss
C) We'll be in the tournament if we go 11-7 in the ACC

I agree with you for the most part. That's why I said for sure above 50%.

Ninety per cent is pretty much a lock and a bit of a different story. If SU goes into Selection Sunday at 19-13 (and an RPI well above 50) and 20Plus has laid 9 to 1 odds then it's a good bet his underwear is completely soiled by the time CBS comes on the air with the brackets.

 

[20Plus]

Apparently you don't watch Connecticut,St. John's and Georgetown and what they've been doing. I believe Ken Poom has them all with in the top 100!huge development!