Bubble Watch - Week of February 11 | Page 4 | Syracusefan.com

Bubble Watch - Week of February 11

pearl31 said:
did our rpi really go from low 60s before Pitt to 70s after Pitt?
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Speaking of RPI, I'm concerned that Baylor is a 1 seed in the committee's Top 16 right now. The only rating Baylor is better than 7th is RPI, where they're first. Baylor's Sagarin and BPI is 13th and 14th, respectively. That doesn't seem like a 1 seed to me.

Is this evidence that they're depending on RPI more this season?
 
Of the teams I had on the front page of this thread, they are 7-15 over the weekend.

A team like Michigan probably makes a nice move with their win at Indiana, but overall the bubble got a little weaker this weekend.
 
orangenirvana said:
Speaking of RPI, I'm concerned that Baylor is a 1 seed in the committee's Top 16 right now. The only rating Baylor is better than 7th is RPI, where they're first. Baylor's Sagarin and BPI is 13th and 14th, respectively. That doesn't seem like a 1 seed to me.

Is this evidence that they're depending on RPI more this season?
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They are not using your individual RPI to determine where you are seeded. Never have. It's who have you beat / lost to that determines your seed. The RPI is used to assess the quality of the teams you faced and beat (top 50 wins). If two teams are being considered for a seed, whether one has RPI of #9 vs an RPI of #6 will be generally irrelevant.

Baylor is a #1 seed because of the # and the quality of wins they have had to date. Baylor is a #1 seed because they in OOC they beat Oregon, Louisville, Xavier, Michigan St and VCU. They have also beat 6 teams that are currently in the tourney in conference as well, including 3 of them on the road.
 
jncuse said:
Of the teams I had on the front page of this thread, they are 7-15 over the weekend.

A team like Michigan probably makes a nice move with their win at Indiana, but overall the bubble got a little weaker this weekend.
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yeah and I mean I really think it was going to be Indiana or Michigan getting selected - not both and not neither - in other words, Indiana is done, stick a fork in them
 
jncuse said:
A few key games today

View attachment 89328

Michigan just in as of now, Indiana just out of now -- hard to choose one over the other in terms of desired result
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We should root for Michigan. They have already played almost all B1G heavyweight. The next few weeks they will have easier wins over B1G bottom three: Penn State, Nebraska and Rutgers.
 
As a measure of the overall "bubble", the 23 teams I had on the table on the first page went a combined 8-15 this weekend. So while we lost our game, the whole bubble generally lost as well. The clear winner was probably Virginia Tech who was losing some momentum.

Given that each team typically plays 1 game during the week, I will track the next games of 23 teams prior to Friday (12 currently in, 11 currently out). I dropped Oklahoma St (above it for now), and Vanderbilt and Ohio St because they are getting no mention on the matrix. Added Georgia, Houston and Pitt because they are getting multiple mentions on the matrix. Don't shoot the messenger on Pitt, not sure they belong.

Rankings based on 31 brackets done today. (I believe before any games). Probabilities based on data in RPI Forecast which makes them based on Sagarin-- I don't think Indiana has anywhere close to a 48% chance at Minnesota, but most seem reasonale.

THIS CAN SERVE AS YOUR BUBBLE CALENDAR FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS

upload_2017-2-12_21-41-50.png

upload_2017-2-12_21-46-26.png


Based on the above probabilities the 23 teams above will go 10-10 in games before Friday. So a good result for us would be 10 wins or less.
 
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yeah N'western is def a lock now...
most of those bubble teams (our team included) have really tough games this week - as jn always does a great job of illustrating, it's so important to remember that our results/resume only matter relative to these other teams and their results/resume - so many folks on here seem to look at us in a vacuum and have conniptions with a Syracuse win and/or Syracuse loss
 
pearl31 said:
yeah N'western is def a lock now...
most of those bubble teams (our team included) have really tough games this week - as jn always does a great job of illustrating, it's so important to remember that our results/resume only matter relative to these other teams and their results/resume - so many folks on here seem to look at us in a vacuum and have conniptions with a Syracuse win and/or Syracuse loss
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Are there any mid-majors out there that play in a traditionally one-bid conference that might still get a bid even if they don't win their conference tourney?
 
bpo57 said:
Are there any mid-majors out there that play in a traditionally one-bid conference that might still get a bid even if they don't win their conference tourney?
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Nevada's?? a top 40-50 raking but they lost today to San Diego st
 
bpo57 said:
Are there any mid-majors out there that play in a traditionally one-bid conference that might still get a bid even if they don't win their conference tourney?
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Right now the list seems quite short compared to prior years. Their is no Monmouth, Valparaiso, or even a San Diego St this year. And even they didn't get in last year, but don't always expect consistency. I included the KP number as I think they look at analytics to try to compare apples and oranges. All the teams below have top 50 RPI's, but really empty resumes.

Illinois St (45) - Wichita St and Illinois St are both tied in the MVC. I think Wichita St is probably a lock based on analytics so hopefully they take care of business in the MVC, and hope that Illinois St does not steal a bid.

Middle Tennesse (52) - Beat UNC Wilmington. But had a few bad losses

UNC Wilmington (56) - Decent RPI but not much else. Racked up a few bad losses recently.

Nevada (73) - This seems like it might be a stretch however, as the MWC is not that strong. Also not fond of the KP rating,

I don't include teams like Akron and Monmouth with good RPI's, but KP rankings around #100. They also lack marquee victories.

Illinois St probably seems the biggest threat above (although they are in more of a potential 2 team league). I am not particularly fond of any of the other 3 teams above, but maybe Middle Tennessee has the greatest shot.
 
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pearl31 said:
yeah I really think the loss today wrecked their at-large chances - that's a 1-bid league this year
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The MWC has really taken a major step down. The A-10 and AAC also currently only have 4 bids.

It's more open for P5+1 teams this year than ever
 
jeez just took a peak at Palm's latest bracket (think it's from yesterday) and he has Ohio St as in (last 4 in, where he has us too) and Auburn one of the first four out :crazy:
 
pearl31 said:
jeez just took a peak at Palm's latest bracket (think it's from yesterday) and he has Ohio St as in (last 4 in, where he has us too) and Auburn one of the first four out :crazy:
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I looked at their resumes with an open mind -- didn't want to stay they were crazy picks because no one else has them in on the matrix.

After looking at the resume's in detail, they are really bad picks. Very confusing from Palm.

Auburn has 2 fairly good road wins at TCU and at Alabama, but that is it. They also lost to BC. Not even close.

Ohio St actually has a worst loss than us. They loss to RPI #282 Florida Atlantic -- at home! They have beat 3 tourney level teams -- Michigan St, Michigan and Minnesota -- not very convincing, given their 15-11 record.
 
pearl31 said:
yeah and I mean I really think it was going to be Indiana or Michigan getting selected - not both and not neither - in other words, Indiana is done, stick a fork in them
Expand...

Indiana is quickly running off the radar, On February 4th they were on 85% of the brackets, after yesterday they are now down to 9% on today's brackets. That's the impact of a 3 game losing streak.
 
Just some quick observations of the 33 brackets published today on the matrix.

Syracuse is still in on 31 of 33 brackets. It was really a bad weekend for those teams on the bubble, so Syracuse held steady. The negative is it was a massive blown opportunity and some teams still gained on us.

The new team that seems to be creeping up the matrix is the University of Houston. 15% of the people now have them in. They also have a KP of 36, which may help a team from a non P5 conference. Remember the American had 4 teams in last year, including the massive surprise in Tulsa. The AAC though is not as deep this year -- only 5 teams in top 100. Not really seeing it right now -- their big wins are Vermont and Rhode Island and they have a few bad losses. They can get a boost if they beat a good SMU team at home this week.

I don't want to predict that 10-8 would could have us in entering the ACC tourney. I need more time to get any degree of confidence on that. (and know the mix). But after the brutal weekend, I am not outright dismissing the possibility yet. Let's hope we don't even have to think about it.
 
jncuse said:
Just some quick observations of the 33 brackets published today on the matrix.

Syracuse is still in on 31 of 33 brackets. It was really a bad weekend for those teams on the bubble, so Syracuse held steady. The negative is it was a massive blown opportunity and some teams still gained on us.

The new team that seems to be creeping up the matrix is the University of Houston. 15% of the people now have them in. They also have a KP of 36, which may help a team from a non P5 conference. Remember the American had 4 teams in last year, including the massive surprise in Tulsa. The AAC though is not as deep this year -- only 5 teams in top 100. Not really seeing it right now -- their big wins are Vermont and Rhode Island and they have a few bad losses. They can get a boost if they beat a good SMU team at home this week.

I don't want to predict that 10-8 would could have us in entering the ACC tourney. I need more time to get any degree of confidence on that. (and know the mix). But after the brutal weekend, I am not outright dismissing the possibility yet. Let's hope we don't even have to think about it.
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How many brackets were Syracuse in going into Selection Sunday last season?
 
orangenirvana said:
How many brackets were Syracuse in going into Selection Sunday last season?
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Last year was as complex a bubble as we had in years from my perspective. The committee went with the P5 instead of mid-tier conference teams.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2016

3 teams got in that were not in per "consensus" which is higher than normal
Syracuse was in 55 of 144 (38%)
Vanderbilt (32%)
Tulsa (1%) ... total stunner

3 teams that got left out.
St. Bonaventure 86%
St. Mary's 65%
San Diego St 57%

I do think some on the matrix are a little influenced by chief idiot Joe Lunardi, which is why a team like San Diego St got so much love.
 
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