Bubble Watch - Week of February 11

[jdubs30]

I really can't see how Ilinois State gets in. I don't care how many wins they end up with. Their SOS is 119. They're 0-1 vs. the top 50 and 2-1 vs. the top 100. They have 18 wins over teams with an RPI of 116 or worse. Their best road win is 152 Loyola-Chicago

 

[Cuse House]

A) All of the bubble teams will have less-than-stellar records
B) We'll have exactly one "hideous" loss
C) We'll be in the tournament if we go 11-7 in the ACC

I think we have one hideous loss but a handful of bad losses. But so does every other bubble team. I think we are going to get it, just need to take it one game at a time.

 

[jdubs30]

I think we have one hideous loss but a handful of bad losses. But so does every other bubble team. I think we are going to get it, just need to take it one game at a time.

Yep. I think it's natural for fans to focus on their own team - and it's easy to forget that most of the bubble teams have flawed resumes, hence why they are on the bubble.

I think the committee values good wins over bad losses. The UConn, BC and St. John's are bad - but having the UVA and FSU wins are massive. A team like Wake has no bad losses, but no good wins either. The committee wants to see that you can beat good teams which we have proven.

 

[Cuse House]

Yep. I think it's natural for fans to focus on their own team - and it's easy to forget that most of the bubble teams have flawed resumes, hence why they are on the bubble.

I think the committee values good wins over bad losses. The UConn, BC and St. John's are bad - but having the UVA and FSU wins are massive. A team like Wake has no bad losses, but no good wins either. The committee wants to see that you can beat good teams which we have proven.

Yeah tbh we beat GaTech 2x and either Louisville or Duke and we are 100% in. Still, it's a tall task. There really aren't any easy games in the ACC.

 

[jncuse]

Lots of good discussion in this thread since yesterday. Start with this one.

I really can't see how Ilinois State gets in. I don't care how many wins they end up with. Their SOS is 119. They're 0-1 vs. the top 50 and 2-1 vs. the top 100. They have 18 wins over teams with an RPI of 116 or worse. Their best road win is 152 Loyola-Chicago

Illinois St is hard to analyze on the matrix.

1. The problem is that both Wichita St and Illinois St, have one loss in the MVC against each other. So some are only putting Illinois St as a cinference champion and not at large. But it's impossible to tell.

Here is what we can tell from the Matrix
There are 97 brackets, there are 134 "votes" for Wichita (86) and Illinois St (48). So 37 people view the second place MVC team as getting an at-large, whether it is Illinois St or Wichita. I suspect it's more people view Wichita St as an at large.

2. That being said, Illinois St has a KP of 46 which is solid. These teams are apples and oranges, and you can't compare quality wins and quality losses amongst them. The problem is that the RPI identified too many of these types of teams as top 50 -- a stronger analytic only view a few as top 60 teams. Wichita St 16, Illinois St 46, Middle Tennessee 52, UNC Wilmington 56.

I have no problem giving any of those the benefit of the doubt on Selection Sunday, Just like St. Mary;s and Valaparaiso last year. I think that is the way it should be. But in terms of what happens it is not.

Wichita St also has an empty resume, but as the company is openly looking at other analytics other than RPI, I can't see something as high as 16 being ignored.

3. The MVC tournament is always played a week earlier, so at least we will know about them sooner rather than later. I would say cheer for Wichita St in the MVC tourney, and the bubble can take its chances with Illinois St.

 

[jncuse]

Yeah tbh we beat GaTech 2x and either Louisville or Duke and we are 100% in. Still, it's a tall task. There really aren't any easy games in the ACC.

I would only label it as likely to get in as of now. I will make call in terms of likely or not, but would not deal in absolutes with a month to go. Now come Selection Sunday, and all the data is in, it's quite possible it will be a lock.

But I think we all mostly agree that 11 wins put us in good shape, even if it's not a guarantee. That probability is unfortunately higher than our probability of getting to 11 wins in my view.

The only positive on my last comment is that about 3 weeks ago, I said the same thing with one big difference " 80% chance that we get in with 11 wins, but less than 10% chance we get to 11 wins". Today, while a challenge, the probability is much higher than 10%... much higher. Whether we get there or not, as a fan it is good to see that a game on February 13th is still meaningful.

 

[jncuse]

Yep. I think it's natural for fans to focus on their own team - and it's easy to forget that most of the bubble teams have flawed resumes, hence why they are on the bubble.

I think the committee values good wins over bad losses. The UConn, BC and St. John's are bad - but having the UVA and FSU wins are massive. A team like Wake has no bad losses, but no good wins either. The committee wants to see that you can beat good teams which we have proven.

I agree with good over bad. We have may have the most "good" and the most "bad" on the bubble. Actually the most good might be Georgetown if they can win enough.

But we have some real bad -- all it takes is one convincing member IMO to lead to a call that is not in line with the past. Not as likely, but certainly possible too.

 

[jncuse]

What part am I wrong about?

The winning three out of five gets you in or the likelihood of winning 3 of 5.

Like I said, I hope I am wrong so don't take that prediction personally.

SU has five games left. They'll be betting underdogs in all but one of those games (home against GT). Hence the comment that it's less than a 50/50 proposition. Does that mean they can't win three? Of course not. Certainly stranger things have happened.

For once I find agreement with your post. I don't know if we will be a dog at GTech... based on KP right now it seems like it will be a Pick Em game.

RPIForecast (which uses Sagarin for probabilities) has our expected wins over the next 5 games at 2.22. So getting 2 is the most likely scenario, but 3 is achievable.

 

[bpo57]

For once I find agreement with your post. I don't know if we will be a dog at GTech... based on KP right now it seems like it will be a Pick Em game.

RPIForecast (which uses Sagarin for probabilities) has our expected wins over the next 5 games at 2.22. So getting 2 is the most likely scenario, but 3 is achievable.

We'll be a modest dog down (+3 to 4) at GT. They've beaten UNC, FSU, ND and Clemson at home. Yesterday we were a pick'em to one point favorite against a 2-9 Pitt team.

 

[jdubs30]

For once I find agreement with your post. I don't know if we will be a dog at GTech... based on KP right now it seems like it will be a Pick Em game.

RPIForecast (which uses Sagarin for probabilities) has our expected wins over the next 5 games at 2.22. So getting 2 is the most likely scenario, but 3 is achievable.

jn - are we on the page that if we split Louisville, beat Duke and lose both to GaTech we'd be a lock?

 

[jncuse]

Never one to leave well enough alone - I'd say that your 90% prediction seems a bit bold to me. If we go 3-2 but lose the first ACC tournament game we'll be 19-13 with several hideous losses. At that point we're going to need a little bit of help only in the sense that we can ill afford some tournament upsets where some surprise teams take automatic bids. I think our chances would be above 50% for sure but I don't know about 90%.

I think on Selection Sunday (A month from now) things may have cleared up to the point that the 90% sounds like a sound bet.

But things could also conceivably swing a bit the other way. Right now I see it around 75% -- always leaving some room for some committee inconsistency.

 

[jncuse]

We'll be a modest dog down (+3 to 4) at GT. They've beaten UNC, FSU, ND and Clemson at home. Yesterday we were a pick'em to one point favorite against a 2-9 Pitt team.

The KP Formula has always been within a point of what Vegas opens with in every ACC game this year. And right now it shows pick em. Whether the lines make sense or not is a different question, but I have been observing this all year. Since the formula shows Pick Em, I would be surprised if it was more than +1 Tech.

But there may always be that first exception.

 

[bpo57]

The KP Formula has always been within a point of what Vegas opens with in every ACC game this year. And right now it shows pick em. Whether the lines make sense or not is a different question, but I have been observing this all year. Since the formula shows Pick Em, I would be surprised if it was more than +1 Tech.

But there may always be that first exception.

I'm not sure where that game would open but if it opens pick'em it will be bet hard in GT's favor. Quite frankly they've beaten better teams than SU in their building. I think the teams are evenly matched with a slight lean to SU. But home court is huge and it just wouldn't make sense that SU is a pick'em at Pitt (and was behind pretty much the whole way) and then is somehow going to be a pick'em at GT. I don't see it. We'll see.

 

[jncuse]

jn - are we on the page that if we split Louisville, beat Duke and lose both to GaTech we'd be a lock?

Good question. I would say more likely than not -- 4 top 25 wins regardless of location would be hard to ignore. But we better not lose that first ACC game especially if it is a non tourney team.

I won't give it a long answer because I think it is a very unlikely scenario.

 

[bpo57]

The KP Formula has always been within a point of what Vegas opens with in every ACC game this year. And right now it shows pick em. Whether the lines make sense or not is a different question, but I have been observing this all year. Since the formula shows Pick Em, I would be surprised if it was more than +1 Tech.

But there may always be that first exception.

So what is the KP Formula saying about the L'ville/SU line tomorrow night?

 

[jncuse]

So what is the KP Formula saying about the L'ville/SU line tomorrow night?

Louisville: 6.0 to 6.5 point favourite,

 

[jncuse]

I'm not sure where that game would open but if it opens pick'em it will be bet hard in GT's favor. Quite frankly they've beaten better teams than SU in their building. I think the teams are evenly matched with a slight lean to SU. But home court is huge and it just wouldn't make sense that SU is a pick'em at Pitt (and was behind pretty much the whole way) and then is somehow going to be a pick'em at GT. I don't see it. We'll see.

I don't disagree that the line itself would not seem right. It's a discussion we have had on several opening lines. I am just saying the way it seems to work, I wouldn't touch either as near pick em.

 

[bpo57]

Louisville: 6.0 to 6.5 point favourite,

My guess is 4 to 5.

 

[pearl31]

so do we want Indiana or Michigan to win? I had been thinking we want Indiana today, but...

 

[jncuse]

so do we want Indiana or Michigan to win? I had been thinking we want Indiana today, but...

I think Indiana would be better but it's hard to say. I think Indiana can win this and still miss the tourney because of injuries and the path they are heading on.

This road win could mean a lot more for Michigan in the whole scheme of things.

 

[pearl31]

I think Indiana would be better but it's hard to say. I think Indiana can win this and still miss the tourney because of injuries and the path they are heading on.

This road win could mean a lot more for Michigan in the whole scheme of things.

yep that has been my thinking - Mich possibly hops back over us with a road win today

 

[jncuse]

A few key games today

Michigan just in as of now, Indiana just out of now -- hard to choose one over the other in terms of desired result

Buzz meet Seth.

 

[orangenirvana]

Latest Syracuse rankings

Sagarin - 38
KenPom - 49
BPI - 31
RPI - 71

Average: 47.3 (12 seed)
Average after eliminating outlier: 39.3 (10 seed)

 

[MSOrange]

so do we want Indiana or Michigan to win? I had been thinking we want Indiana today, but...

If you were cheering for Tom Crean to get knocked on his butt by a Michigan player, you already win!

 

[pearl31]

Latest Syracuse rankings

Sagarin - 38
KenPom - 49
BPI - 31
RPI - 71

Average: 47.3 (12 seed)
Average after eliminating outlier: 39.3 (10 seed)

did our rpi really go from low 60s before Pitt to 70s after Pitt?