Bubble Watch - Week of February 11

[jncuse]

Updated Matrix standings only for brackets submitted today (45 total) I typically only include teams that have less than 95% on matrix or greater than 5%

Did something a little different this week, compiling this week's rankings and comparing them to where the rankings were at the same point last week (before Saturday games). You can see how big a jump Syracuse made from last week. This is also why I have a few teams with over 95% -- because last week they were on the bubble.

Syracuse is currently the 5th last team in.

Some analysis. There was plenty of movement last week, which is always interesting as a fan. The impact of a 2 game losing streak or winning streak by any bubble team can be significant as you will see below.

Biggest Positive Movers since last week
1. Syracuse - Up 82% (+ 12 Spots) (Win vs Virginia, at Clemson)
2. Seton Hall - Up 53% (8 Spots) (Win at Georgetown, vs Providence)
3. Miami - Up 40% (8 Spots) (Win at NC St, vs Virginia Tech)
4. Kansas St - Up 32% (7 Spots) (Win at Baylor, Lost vs Kansas)

Biggest Negative Movers since last week
1. Clemson - Down 59% (13 Spots) (Loss at Florida St, vs Syracuse)
2. Arkansas - Down 58% (16 Spots) (Loss at Missouri, vs Vanderbilt)
3. Indiana - Down 50% (10 Spots) (Loss at Wisconsin, vs Purdue)
4. Georgia Tech - Down 27% (5 Spots) (Loss at Wake Forest)

Moved from Out to In - Miami, Seton Hall, Syracuse
Moved from In to Out - Clemson, Indiana, Illinois St

The whole point is that while things are positive we are still just a 2 game losing streak from being in a heap of trouble.

 

[pearl31]

Rhode Island blew a big opportunity tonight at home vs Dayton... lol how Seton Hall somehow jumps way up after beating georgetown and Provy...
if teams like Ohio St, Vandy and Utah still have a shot - that is indeed a weak-azz bubble

 

[jncuse]

Rhode Island blew a big opportunity tonight at home vs Dayton... lol how Seton Hall somehow jumps way up after beating georgetown and Provy...
if teams like Ohio St, Vandy and Utah still have a shot - that is indeed a weak-azz bubble

Did not realize Rhode Island played tonight. That definetely hurts them.

It was surprising to see Seton Hall jump that much based on who they beat, but there were not that many teams right around the bubble line (50% or less) that went 2-0 last week, so I guess that is why that happened. And a weak bubble.

 

[jncuse]

Games of note Saturday

6th last team out Wake Forest needs to get a big win to have a shot. But they also need to take care of business first. This is not quite a gimme.

Seton Hall is the 6th last team in, but they have a sucker road game against a sub 100 team. Type of loss that send you back to the outside.

Marquette is 2nd last team in, but they are the dog on the road.

 

[jncuse]

Similar to Marquette and Seton Hall above. Not an easy road game. Seems this will be a common them for many bubble teams tomorrow.

Clemson, the 5th team out, needs something big. This is not likely it. While a good loss, you can't get to 3-9 in conference.

Miami is the 8th last team in. Road games for bubble teams, as I said seems to be a theme early on tomorrow. And this one seems like a loss, but maybe there will be surprises like in the B12 last weekend where the top 3 teams lost at home.

 

[jncuse]

Tennessee is the 2nd last team in, not an easy one at home for them. I don't think an SEC team can slip up much.

Michigan St, the 4th last team in, cannot afford to lose a home game against a non tourney team. But Iowa has been fairly decent lately.

Has nothing to do with a bubble, but this is a neat little rivalry, and the games at St Mary;s are always fun to watch, This is as tough a match as Gonzaga will face until the sweet 16 (if they make it)

 

[Shark58]

Marquette-Jimtown is a fandom conundrum

I guess the rest are go St. Johns and whatever ACC teams can make the tourney aside us (assuming we keep winning)

#goACC
#fMichaelGraham

 

[jncuse]

Arkansas is 3rd last team out, but is on a bit of a freefall. This would definitely continue it

Cal 9th last team in, but a win is unlikely

 

[jncuse]

Marquette-Jimtown is a fandom conundrum

I guess the rest are go St. Johns and whatever ACC teams can make the tourney aside us (assuming we keep winning)

#goACC
#fMichaelGraham

It does seem that there is starting to be some separation in the ACC, but that can quickly chage.

It seems that Syracuse and Miami, are creating some distance from Clemson, Wake and GTech. So if any of the last 3 play anybody, cheer against them.

 

[jdubs30]

Today is must-win territory for Wake. I know their RPI/SOS are good - but they have no good wins. NC State isn't a bad loss, but to drop to 14-11 and 5-8 in the ACC will be very tough to recover from. I also feel like Clemson and Georgetown would be eliminated with losses today, barring running the table. Clemson is similar to us last year - hanging their hat on 2 good OOC wins (ours were better IMO) while avoiding a bad loss, but haven't done much outside of those 2 games. I just don't see how they can recover from 3-9 - it's too big of a hole.

 

[jdubs30]

I feel like the SEC every year has a team with around 20 wins that doesn't get in. This year it will be Arkansas. 62 SOS and 49 RPI are solid. No top 35 wins - only top 50 wins are @TEN and @Vandy (and Vandy is 47 so they could fall out).

4 wins vs. 51-100 is good and they have 5 losses vs. the top 50.

Just don't love them

 

[jdubs30]

Cal ahead of us makes no sense either.

Similar SOS (49 for us and 51 for them) and they have us in RPI (35 for them and 65 for us)

But Cal is 14-1 vs. 101+ RPI teams and 4-5 vs. the top 100 - while being 1-5 vs. the top 50. We're 8-6 vs. the top 100 and 4-5 vs. the top 50.

Only 8 of our 16 wins have been against 101+ or worse teams - meanwhile of their 18 wins, 14 have been against 101+ or worse teams.

RPI-wise, we have 2 wins better than their best win, and 7!!! wins better than their 2nd best win.

 

[jncuse]

Today is must-win territory for Wake. I know their RPI/SOS are good - but they have no good wins. NC State isn't a bad loss, but to drop to 14-11 and 5-8 in the ACC will be very tough to recover from. I also feel like Clemson and Georgetown would be eliminated with losses today, barring running the table. Clemson is similar to us last year - hanging their hat on 2 good OOC wins (ours were better IMO) while avoiding a bad loss, but haven't done much outside of those 2 games. I just don't see how they can recover from 3-9 - it's too big of a hole.

Good point and I agree. At this point of the season, any team on the outside can't lose a game it should win. The following is simplistic and may not hold true for everybody, but to get back in those teams need to win the games they should and also win a big game. Lose a game you should, and it now means you need to win 2 big games to get back in. Time is running out for that.

As for Wake, I think I cracked the code for the Wake RPI. What P5 school plays 7 of 13 preaseason games on road or neutral courts. including 5 away games? They won 4 of those games that are worth more than beating a home team. They won 3 road games vs RPI 71, 107, 136. Decent wins for a bubble team, but more importantly they are valued fairly highly under the RPI.

I don't think Wake cheated the RPI, it's just that their circumstances worked out well this year.

I can't see them getting excluded if they get to 9-9 in the ACC. That would mean 4-2 over the rest of the schedule.

Here is the other positive for Wake. If a committee member says the RPI just does not look right, they look at KenPom and see #34, Sagarin at #42, BPI #37.

All that being said, jdubs original point still stands, lose today and those scenarios are just not likely to happen.

 

[jncuse]

Cal ahead of us makes no sense either.

Similar SOS (49 for us and 51 for them) and they have us in RPI (35 for them and 65 for us)

But Cal is 14-1 vs. 101+ RPI teams and 4-5 vs. the top 100 - while being 1-5 vs. the top 50. We're 8-6 vs. the top 100 and 4-5 vs. the top 50.

Only 8 of our 16 wins have been against 101+ or worse teams - meanwhile of their 18 wins, 14 have been against 101+ or worse teams.

RPI-wise, we have 2 wins better than their best win, and 7!!! wins better than their 2nd best win.

P12 has went from the RPI darlings last year (and not really warranted) to easily the worst P5 conference this year where the RPI is really working against a middle of pack of team.

What a drastic change, especially when we look at the top 3 teams which all seem fairly elite. Very top heavy with quite a few really bad teams.

 

[jdubs30]

Good point and I agree. At this point of the season, any team on the outside can't lose a game it should win. The following is simplistic and may not hold true for everybody, but to get back in those teams need to win the games they should and also win a big game. Lose a game you should, and it now means you need to win 2 big games to get back in. Time is running out for that.

As for Wake, I think I cracked the code for the Wake RPI. What P5 school plays 7 of 13 preaseason games on road or neutral courts. including 5 away games? They won 4 of those games that are worth more than beating a home team. They won 3 road games vs RPI 71, 107, 136. Decent wins for a bubble team, but more importantly they are valued fairly highly under the RPI.

I don't think Wake cheated the RPI, it's just that their circumstances worked out well this year.

I can't see them getting excluded if they get to 9-9 in the ACC. That would mean 4-2 over the rest of the schedule.

View attachment 89299

Here is the other positive for Wake. If a committee member says the RPI just does not look right, they look at KenPom and see #34, Sagarin at #42, BPI #37.

All that being said, jdubs original point still stands, lose today and those scenarios are just not likely to happen.

The way have understood it jncuse is winning @BC has more RPI value than beating GTown at home, correct? The RPI greatly values road games, especially wins. So by Wake winning all those preseason road games, it really inflated their RPI and they're coming back down to earth now - great post. For me, Wake passes the eye test honestly. Collins is a beast, they get good guard play and have shooters. I think they find their way in because of your points - and the Sagarin and BPI are strong as well. I think us, Wake and VaTech are grouped closely with Tech and Cuse being slightly ahead of Wake at this moment.

Our top 2 wins are much better than Wake - but Wake is a good team and I think they will be in when it's all said in done. But if they lose today (I don't expect them to) then it's up in the air again

 

[orange79]

A win at Pitt today would be huge - not only for conference (and bye or double bye in the ACCT), but also for an RPI boost.

Although it is still frustrating (and an obvious flaw of the RPI in general) how a 13-11 (2-9 conference) team can be 7 spots ahead of us in the RPI standings. :bang:

 

[jdubs30]

A win at Pitt today would be huge - not only for conference (and bye or double bye in the ACCT), but also for an RPI boost.

Although it is still frustrating (and an obvious flaw of the RPI in general) how a 13-11 (2-9 conference) team can be 7 spots ahead of us in the RPI standings. :bang:

Didn't Pitt beat SMU and Marquette OOC on neutral courts?

 

[jncuse]

The way have understood it jncuse is winning @BC has more RPI value than beating GTown at home, correct? The RPI greatly values road games, especially wins. So by Wake winning all those preseason road games, it really inflated their RPI and they're coming back down to earth now - great post. For me, Wake passes the eye test honestly. Collins is a beast, they get good guard play and have shooters. I think they find their way in because of your points - and the Sagarin and BPI are strong as well. I think us, Wake and VaTech are grouped closely with Tech and Cuse being slightly ahead of Wake at this moment.

Our top 2 wins are much better than Wake - but Wake is a good team and I think they will be in when it's all said in done. But if they lose today (I don't expect them to) then it's up in the air again

For the purposes of calculating winning%,
1.4 wins for Road Win
1 for Neutral
.6 wins for Home Win

Winning % is only 25% of the RPI formula, the rest is SOS based, but Wake beat "good" teams on the road. Not good in the typical sense, but those 3 wins were all basically wins against teams that were better than 70 t0 80% of the other 351 teams in the country. So it worked well for the win%, and did not hurt the SOS either.

 

[Cuse23]

When it comes to other ACC teams that we've beaten (Wake, Clemson, Miami), who are just in or on the bubble, is it better to:

1) have them keep winning to remain or eke into the RPI Top 50 so that we have more top 50 wins (which sealed our fate last year)

Or

2) Have them all keep losing to keep them from potentially stealing our bid?

This question assumes that we play ourselves just to the bubble, so no better than 3-3 the rest of the way.

 

[jncuse]

When it comes to other ACC teams that we've beaten (Wake, Clemson, Miami), who are just in or on the bubble, is it better to:

1) have them keep winning to remain or eke into the RPI Top 50 so that we have more top 50 wins (which sealed our fate last year)

Or

2) Have them all keep losing to keep them from potentially stealing our bid?

This question assumes that we play ourselves just to the bubble, so no better than 3-3 the rest of the way.

That's a tough one... there are so many moving parts especially in the ACC as we have played those teams.. Pretty much every result could have a positive and negative to it when applied to us.

It's much easier to assess what we want to happen in other conferences..

I will say the Top 50 is only a metric, that is probably something they use when they quickly seed the teams in the middle of the bracket. When it gets down to the bubble I would think most times they expand it to beating tourney teams / other bubble teams that are not necessarily in the top 50.

 

[pearl31]

Didn't Pitt beat SMU and Marquette OOC on neutral courts?

also @ Maryland

 

[jdubs30]

When it comes to other ACC teams that we've beaten (Wake, Clemson, Miami), who are just in or on the bubble, is it better to:

1) have them keep winning to remain or eke into the RPI Top 50 so that we have more top 50 wins (which sealed our fate last year)

Or

2) Have them all keep losing to keep them from potentially stealing our bid?

This question assumes that we play ourselves just to the bubble, so no better than 3-3 the rest of the way.

I'd go with 2.

If Clemson loses out and their RPI drops - it will be 1 less top 50 win for us, but will be 1 less bubble team to worry about. I think in a vacuum, the less NCAA tourney-potential teams there are, the less top 50 wins we need

 

[jncuse]

A few positives so far today despite the big obvious negative. I would only look at the top 10 teams that are immediately behind us entering today. It would be nice if as a group the 10 behind us go below .500 on the day.

Marquette was the 3rd last team in (2 spots behind us). This brings G'Town back to the edges

Seton Hall was the 6th last team in (1 spot ahead of us). So this is largely a draw for both team. St. John's continues to cause havoc.

Wake is the 6th last team out (10 spots behind us). This is a game they should have won, and did it convincingly.

 

[pearl31]

nice results out of the big east so far today

 

[orangenirvana]

I like that Texas Tech lost to Kansas. It was a close one.