Well, it depends on what you're discussing, IMO. I still say the idea of going to a professional league is that you've put yourself in position to have a career that lasts for a minimum of 5 years and ideally 10 or so. As great as that money up front is, the question of whether it is the right decision comes down to more than simply the guarantee of money for a couple years. (I say this fully acknowledging that if a kid wants to take a quick contract and go to the NBA or even shoot for the NBA knowing that he can play overseas for years, I'm fine with it.)
But to me you want to assess the situation based on three criteria:
1. Can your draft stock improve?
For guys like Ennis, I feel the decision to leave makes a ton of sense because I'm not sure his draft grade had much potential to go up and I'm not sure developmentally that he really needed any more college ball. He had already put together a really impressive resume and gotten a nice draft grade.
2. What's your carrying tool(s) and how defined are they? AND, how common is your skill set?
I would have no problem making a case that Jeremi Grant should have returned, but I do think one could make the argument that his role was going to be based on his raw athleticism/effort. Hustle, defense, rebounding, huge dunks -- that may be what Grant was going to be with another year or not. But regardless, you could at least make that argument. My main reason for being surprised about Mali going and getting drafted so high was that his carrying tool was his offense ... but his offense wasn't real great. It was awesome at times and brutal at others.
3. What's your best path of development? AND, how uncommon is your skill set/size?
Yes, I'm well aware that you're paid handsomely to play against the best players in the world with the best coaches in the world if you're in the NBA. However, the NBA is also not going to wait on you if they can replace you easily? (i.e. For a guy like MCW, whatever his weaknesses, he's a 6'6" PG -- that's pretty rare and teams are going to give you a lot of rope to develop b/c of that fact.) If you're a kid who's most likely to make your mark offensively, my opinion is you need to be really good before you go b/c the D League and/or the end of the bench isn't a great spot for getting quality, game touches. IMO, there is something to be said for knowing that for 30+ games on a college floor you are going to be playing close to 40 mins and the offense will be, for the most part, run through you. That's pretty powerful in terms of development.
So where does that leave Lydon? I don't know. I'm cool with whatever he decides to do but I would argue that a stretch 4 needs to be a really good offensive player. I don't know about draft position but in terms of being ready for the NBA, Lydon could absolutely grow by learning what he is offensively and how he fits best. It's hard to argue against taking first-round money but I certainly think a Lydon who kills it in the offseason with workouts and developing his game and then puts up a huge junior season could be a really nice option for developing into a player that is a regular rotation guy for 8-10 years in the NBA.
