15 - 10 with 6 games to go

[Millhouse]

Overall per Ken pom the possessions per 40 min data hasn't moved all that much compared with how much 3pt shooting volume has increased. You can look at it through the tempo column if interested.

The zone naturally positions us as a slower tempo team and naturally slows the game for our opponents too. Given the zone is used on occasion for most teams vs full time, you don't have that variable and really the only variable is the shot clock. 30 seconds hasn't had a huge impact. 24 seconds i feel would be a different animal and I think that's where they should take it.

I used to be against 24 seconds because i thought it would lead to iso ball like we saw twenty years ago

teams eventually figured out that if you just move really fast, you can whip the ball around and find open threes or dunks.

 

[phil77]

At 15-10 with 6 to go. Does 20-11/19-12 give us a puncher's chance to be in the discussion for the tournament? Or is it win out (and the ACC) to be 24-10 to get us to an 11 seed?

i'm confused what the realistic chances are for this team going into March. I'm discounting the NIT because I think if we get to over 500 we'll be selected there

I think we would have to go 5-1 to end the regular season and then make the ACCT final game to have even a small chance at a bid. I think we have way way too many bad losses on our resume and not enough quality wins to have a chance.

When I ask what is our best win? It is a struggle to come up with something
When I ask what is our worst loss? We can starting naming team after team and game after game

 

[Orangezoo]

I used to be against 24 seconds because i thought it would lead to iso ball like was saw twenty years ago

teams eventually figured out that if you just move really fast, you can whip the ball around and find open threes or dunks.

I think it would still be a bit ugly for the first couple of years but I agree given the evolution of the game that kids would settle in pretty quickly.

 

[cuseincincy]

Always nice to start a day with a little Orange optimism! The famous sports line that keeps running through my head is "They are who we thought they were." I know many are down on coach but as far as the team is concerned we shouldn't have expected much better. My favorite statement from Jordan Cornette last night was "it doesn't really count for much, but it really does that this Syracuse team has lost some really close games against the top teams in the league that they could have won. And come ACC tournament time, you never know..." I like these kids and like it or not, coach is doing a pretty good job with the team he has.
And for the first time I'll go on record that if Joe wants to come back, I'd be in favor of it. In his current role he's found his niche. Judah, Joe and little more Quadir than we've seen of Sy? I'll go to war with that. I doubt it happens which opens up more time for Taylor which I'm good with also.

Now lets close it out and get back in the discussion.

 

[CU44SE]

Yes, I’m drizzling a little cold water on this optimism.

We have won 1 game in conference against a team with a winning record. That team was missing their best shooter who went for 20 against us last time we played them.

I agree we are playing better. The NCAA is a pipedream based on our resume though. That doesn’t mean we have not played better though. Players leave a lot to be excited for in the future.

The unfortunate part of that is you never know how off-season will unfold anymore.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Yes, I’m drizzling a little cold water on this optimism.

We have won 1 game in conference against a team with a winning record. That team was missing their best shooter who went for 20 against us last time we played them.

I agree we are playing better. The NCAA is a pipedream based on our resume though. That doesn’t mean we have not played better though. Players leave a lot to be excited for in the future.

The unfortunate part of that is you never know how off-season will unfold anymore.

Debbie Downer!!! Hope we keep winning for your sake. And no one cares about next year.

 

[upperdeck]

They changed the shot clock in that time, maybe? I can't remember when they did that. If anything more possessions would amplify the advantage better teams have per play or per possession

I think the problem with basketball is we started with 2 points. a three point shot really shouldn't be worth 50% more. it would be better if a 2 point shot were worth three and a 3 point shot were worth four but that breaks our rules of thumb about how well individual players score.

it takes a long time to get smart and realize that 22 footers worth 3 are better than 17 footers worth 2. Eventually basketball got there.

And thats the big issue.. the value of a shot that is not all that much harder to make and easier to get the shot off is skewed. the hardest thing to do is to get to the rim.

the other variable is that more bad shots lead to more harder to get rebounds.. FSU showed that last night that its hard to box out shots that come off so poorly no amount of boxing out can deal with it.

The whole goal of the 3 was to get Defenses to have to expand.. Well guys who could shoot from farther out always had an advantage like Pistol Pete.. Maybe now we have guys shooting from far enough out the 3 should just go away.. teams will still have to defend it but now its just a shot..

I mean in reality Jessie is having to make harder shots with more D being played on him for less value.. Why is that?

We dont need the 3 anymore.. Shooting has gotten better

 

[Orangezoo]

Of the remaining games the opportunity isn't superb.

NCS- 43 net (quad 2)
Duke 29 net (quad 1 barely which us beating them could change that)
Clemson -69 net( quad 1 but it's close)
Pitt 51 net ( solid quad 1)
Wake -66 net ( quad 2)
GT - 225 net ( quad 4)

We are currently 1-7 vs Q1 and Q2 and the 1 win is a q2, and also have 3 quad 3 losses. We really need just about all of these so we would be sitting at 6-7 vs the first two quads and have a couple q1 wins so long as they stay q1. Getting to 5-8 is still better but with those q3 losses hanging out there i still think we have to get to the ACCT title game and perform well to have a shot. Unfortunately with the league so down less than winning out is tough on our chances.

 

[elimunelson]

Yes, I’m drizzling a little cold water on this optimism.

We have won 1 game in conference against a team with a winning record. That team was missing their best shooter who went for 20 against us last time we played them.

I agree we are playing better. The NCAA is a pipedream based on our resume though. That doesn’t mean we have not played better though. Players leave a lot to be excited for in the future.

The unfortunate part of that is you never know how off-season will unfold anymore.

i think we're setting up for a close but not good enough finish.

if we go 5-1 we'll have some quality wins (finally). We'll need alot of help

 

[UnderHisOwnPower]

A somewhat optimistic basketball thread? I'll take it!

When you win, your wife is prettier, the food tastes better, the beer is colder, and you can't wait until the next game

 

[upperdeck]

Who thought before the yr started we could win 21 games and not even begin to see the Bubble?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

They changed the shot clock in that time, maybe? I can't remember when they did that. If anything more possessions would amplify the advantage better teams have per play or per possession

I think the problem with basketball is we started with 2 points. a three point shot really shouldn't be worth 50% more. it would be better if a 2 point shot were worth three and a 3 point shot were worth four but that breaks our rules of thumb about how well individual players score.

it takes a long time to get smart and realize that 22 footers worth 3 are better than 17 footers worth 2. Eventually basketball got there.

This is a great observation.

 

[DanielAngel]

The next two games are at home against the two ACC teams just in front of us in the standings, NC State and Duke. These are big games if we want to finish in the top 5 or 7 in the conference.

Sad we have no game this weekend.

This has been a weird and not very enjoyable conference schedule all season.

There conference schedule sucks this year I said that the first day it came out

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Who thought before the yr started we could win 21 games and not even begin to see the Bubble?

And lose to Bryant, Colgate and the Johnnie's and still might sniff 21.

 

[FrancoPizza]

The board is incredibly bipolar after a win or loss. Any one game should not cause such huge swings in sentiment. We can debate whether we're relevant again, not relevant, whatever. What are the facts?

1. We are 15-10 with no signature win and several historically bad losses.
2. We face a wildly uncertain off-season in both roster and staff makeup, which has huge implications for next season and beyond.

In this era of 1-year players, whether we finish strong and miraculously climb onto the bubble or await the NIT selection show it doesn't change #2.

 

[Orangezoo]

They changed the shot clock in that time, maybe? I can't remember when they did that. If anything more possessions would amplify the advantage better teams have per play or per possession

I think the problem with basketball is we started with 2 points. a three point shot really shouldn't be worth 50% more. it would be better if a 2 point shot were worth three and a 3 point shot were worth four but that breaks our rules of thumb about how well individual players score.

it takes a long time to get smart and realize that 22 footers worth 3 are better than 17 footers worth 2. Eventually basketball got there.

Especially open shots. I haven't looked but presume even Bartoviik doesn't have open vs contested percentages.. and it would have some subjectivity even if it existed.

The zone relies too much on closeouts and most teams can move the ball on it/screen it with either their set game plan or adjustments and thus it comes down to making open shots. A lot of teams effectively set up little triangles similar to concepts used in soccer providing the ability to create 3v2 scenarios consistently. They also have developed a consistently effective counter to the corner trap which is far less effective than it used to be even with a 7 footers and 6-9 forward executing the trap.

 

[CU44SE]

Debbie Downer!!! Hope we keep winning for your sake. And no one cares about next year.

Usually if you don’t make the tournament, you at least want to see growth in the team. We are seeing that. My point is we have no idea what next years team will even look like because of the college landscape.

Therefore, the growth in the team may not matter at all if people do leave.

Not sure how being realistic makes me a Debbie downer.

Not sure where in my post it says that l am not rooting for Syracuse to win every game they play?

May need to work on your reading comprehension.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

 

[MSOrange]

Of the remaining games the opportunity isn't superb.

NCS- 43 net (quad 2)
Duke 29 net (quad 1 barely which us beating them could change that)
Clemson -69 net( quad 1 but it's close)
Pitt 51 net ( solid quad 1)
Wake -66 net ( quad 2)
GT - 225 net ( quad 4)

We are currently 1-7 vs Q1 and Q2 and the 1 win is a q2, and also have 3 quad 3 losses. We really need just about all of these so we would be sitting at 6-7 vs the first two quads and have a couple q1 wins so long as they stay q1. Getting to 5-8 is still better but with those q3 losses hanging out there i still think we have to get to the ACCT title game and perform well to have a shot. Unfortunately with the league so down less than winning out is tough on our chances.

Great summary of what our profile really looks like. I agree that I'm not sure there is any margin for error with only 1 Q1/Q2 win at this point.

 

[PoppyHart]

Great summary of what our profile really looks like. I agree that I'm not sure there is any margin for error with only 1 Q1/Q2 win at this point.

Last year, Texas A&M finished .500 (9-9, 5-way T-5) in a much tougher SEC than this year’s ACC. In the regular season they beat ND (11-seed in NCAAT), Arkansas (4), and Alabama (11). In the SECT they made it to the finals and beat Arkansas (4) and Auburn (2). They still came up short.

This is not 2022 and anything could happen. Right now we have no wins against projected tourney teams, and our last chances in the regular season are against Duke (6 per Bracket Matrix), NCSU (8), Pitt (10) and Clemson (11).

I suppose if we won 3 of those games and managed to defeat UVA and another top-ACC team (Duke x2?) in the ACCT there would be an inkling of hope.

 

[upperdeck]

and never should have blown the miami game

 

[hoopsupstate]

If we win, we control our own destiny. We won’t even need to count on the selection committee.

 

[SUFaninNJ]

Every year there are games that SU manages to pull out, and there are games that they let slip away. No sense beating yourselves up with woulda, coulda, shoulda. A wiseman once said, "You are what your record says you are." What SU is, is a fairly mediocre basketball team.

 

[orangecuse]

Every year there are games that SU manages to pull out, and there are games that they let slip away. No sense beating yourselves up with woulda, coulda, shoulda. A wiseman once said, "You are what your record says you are." What SU is, is a fairly mediocre basketball team.

Tru dat!

And, being a 'fairly mediocre basketball team' is no longer even a "new normal" as it has, for the most part, what we've been approaching/for a decade. Unfortunately, the trending stage has been in the rear view for some time now.

 

[Millhouse]

I think it would still be a bit ugly for the first couple of years but I agree given the evolution of the game that kids would settle in pretty quickly.

i like the way basketball is played now. five out always wants to go inside to cutters, the spacing makes it hard to help, it's like the air raid in football. opens up space for fast guys. i just think it would be a little better if threes weren't worth so much relative to twos

if we sat down to watch an ordinary college basketball game from 1983, it would look like the dark ages.