15 - 10 with 6 games to go
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hoopsupstate
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For SU to win, they need to value the ball and take good shots. It has to start with Jesse and play from there. This team can play effective defense if they focus and lock in. They get in trouble when they rush and don’t run offense.
Pipe dream but win out and 21-10 we may sneak in. 8-2 in the last 10 and we know that the committee uses that metric. Plus it sets us up better to win 1 or 2 in the ACCT, which will firmly put us in. I think our magic number if we are 20-11 instead will be 23 wins.
Cusefan0307
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They don’t use last 10 games anymore unfortunately. That ship sailed 15 years ago.
Orangezoo
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Yep - total body of work. To which we have nothing in the non conference...
CardiacCuse
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as pessimisstic as it seems, the Orange are basically 50-50% chance (according to ESPN) to beat a ranked team in their next game...
how many teams not even in the bubble convo could say the same??!
how many teams not even in the bubble convo could say the same??!
Ragman2000
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The reality is keep winning (which would include some good wins) and anything is possible...there are no dominant teams this year and everyone on the bubble is going to have warts. Nothing is off the table at this point.
rhcuse
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The original post shows me Cuse doesn’t belong in the tournament. Kenpom 60 is clearly our Mendoza line. We simply do not (as opposed to cannot) win games against the teams that will be in the tourney field...those with KP <60.
Don’t barf all over ourselves in next season’s non-con and perform better in tight games and 2023/24 will be different.
Don’t barf all over ourselves in next season’s non-con and perform better in tight games and 2023/24 will be different.
FrancoPizza
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Quite a few actually. Parity.
STEVEHOLT
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Beating a slew of awful bottom feeders and losing to every decent team, and a couple crap teams at home. Repeat after me : No tourney unless we win the ACC tournament. This is technically an opinion but it’s fact
PoppyHart
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Will NCSU be ranked?
I think so they lost to Virginia but they did beat bc today so
Knicks411
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Assuming this is based on BPI; a fair amount? Villanova is 11-13, they're a few spots ahead of us in BPI. Washington state is 10-15, they're ahead of us in BPI. We're 83rd in BPI, there are a ton of teams around us that aren't really sniffing a bid either. Plus NC State is 43rd in BPI and KP, so while they're ranked, that is probably overrating their team strength.
Anyway, lots of mediocre or worse college teams are going to be close to tossups at home against a top 40ish team.
Cusefan0307
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I’d say Louisville is more like a dumpster fire, but that’s me.
Orangezoo
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Duke and Illinois fans making sure to call us out as also not belonging
jncuse
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Sorry to burst the bubble of the 24 people who liked the OP's post.
3-3 the rest of the way and 2-1 doesn't even get us in the discussion. You can sleep all day and not worry about it.
We are 98 in the NET, we have no Q1 wins, we have one Q2 win, we have two Q3 losses, we had a bad OOC Schedule and Results.
At this point we need to do really good things to catch up. 5-4 in this scenario, even against a good schedule that will give us some Q1 and Q2 goodies is just not enough.
We are also not squarely in the NIT.
3-3 is what is probably what is needed to just square up the NIT entering the ACC tournament and not having to worry about a game 1 loss. This how far out of the NCAA tournament we are right now. 2-4 does not do it.
3-3 the rest of the way and 2-1 doesn't even get us in the discussion. You can sleep all day and not worry about it.
We are 98 in the NET, we have no Q1 wins, we have one Q2 win, we have two Q3 losses, we had a bad OOC Schedule and Results.
At this point we need to do really good things to catch up. 5-4 in this scenario, even against a good schedule that will give us some Q1 and Q2 goodies is just not enough.
We are also not squarely in the NIT.
3-3 is what is probably what is needed to just square up the NIT entering the ACC tournament and not having to worry about a game 1 loss. This how far out of the NCAA tournament we are right now. 2-4 does not do it.
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Orangezoo
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Yep. 6-0 and we will be in the bubble conversation say next four out. Semis and it's close but need help. We actually dropped in the net after moving up to 93 after FSU. Our numbers are putrid- Richmond did worse than expected, Bryant also did worse same with the Johnnies.
jncuse
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Kentucky and Memphis are the last team in the NCAA tourney right now per the matrix
Memphis vs Syracuse
NET 44 vs NET 98
Q1+Q2 Wins 6 (6-5 overall) vs 1 (1-8 overall)
Bad Losses 1 vs 2
Kentcuky vs Syracuse
NET 45 vs NET 98
Q1 + Q2 Wins (7-8 overall) vs 1 (1-8 overall)
Bad Losses 1 vs 2
We have a huge gap vs the bottom of the field. Say we go 5-4, 2 Q1 and 2 Q2 wins amongst them
NET would be #70-#75
2 Q1 wins (low)
5 Q1+Q2 wins (low)
5-12 record in Q1+Q2 games (bad)
We dug ourselves a huge hole.
Memphis vs Syracuse
NET 44 vs NET 98
Q1+Q2 Wins 6 (6-5 overall) vs 1 (1-8 overall)
Bad Losses 1 vs 2
Kentcuky vs Syracuse
NET 45 vs NET 98
Q1 + Q2 Wins (7-8 overall) vs 1 (1-8 overall)
Bad Losses 1 vs 2
We have a huge gap vs the bottom of the field. Say we go 5-4, 2 Q1 and 2 Q2 wins amongst them
NET would be #70-#75
2 Q1 wins (low)
5 Q1+Q2 wins (low)
5-12 record in Q1+Q2 games (bad)
We dug ourselves a huge hole.
jncuse
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Despite all of the above, we have some younger players on the team. I am excited about the progress the team made since the OOC season.
Can't judge this team fully on whether they make the NCAA tournament (which they likely won't). There are some positives even if they don't.
Can't judge this team fully on whether they make the NCAA tournament (which they likely won't). There are some positives even if they don't.
HOFCeluck
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It’s win the ACCT or bust as far as I’m concerned for making the tourney. Not sure short of that what it’ll take. There’s just not enough good teams in this league.
Orangezoo
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For a while, sadly, the NIT has been the more important goal for this team with the bad losses and weak conference.
Also on the numbers, Duke(30) won't likely be a quad 1 win if we get it. NC State won't either as they would take a hit with a loss to us and probably can't climb back up ( 34 now).
In addition to going 6-0, we would need multiple double digit wins to help our cause as well in respect to the Net.
So it probably is ACCT win or bust no matter what...
Cusefan0307
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It’s only a positive if most players return.
