15 - 10 with 6 games to go | Page 6 | Syracusefan.com

15 - 10 with 6 games to go

In a two or 3 possession game its different than a 10-12 pt game.
very very few games in recent seasons has the team taken a 10 point lead late and extended...it always gets closer at the end of the game it seems...as JB dictates turtle mode to the squad.

and the team has also lost a lot of games down the stretch this season for the same reason...

playcalling down the stretch has been bad.
 
Agreed - I came up with 79 NCAA teams as a rough estimate.
no way...NC STATE is favored in every single remaining game (according to ESPN analytics...which is the metric I was citing originally fwiw) except at Duke and most of those margins are bigger than they are for the Cuse game...(it has now shifted to 55-45 in favor of NC State, fyi)

No chance it is even close to that many teams!!!
 
Beating a slew of awful bottom feeders and losing to every decent team, and a couple crap teams at home. Repeat after me : No tourney unless we win the ACC tournament. This is technically an opinion but it’s fact
Let people have their optimism, doesn’t hurt you at all
 
no way...NC STATE is favored in every single remaining game (according to ESPN analytics...which is the metric I was citing originally fwiw) except at Duke and most of those margins are bigger than they are for the Cuse game...(it has now shifted to 55-45 in favor of NC State, fyi)

No chance it is even close to that many teams!!!

The reason they are favoured much more in those other games is because they are all home games. That makes a massive difference. Teams on average are 7 points better at home than on the road. So of course the expected win% are going to be much higher in home games against all those teams.

For example if Syracuse was playing at NC St this week they would be about 8 point underdogs. At home they are going to open about a one point dog

Using KP here are the projected lines for all the remaining NC St games as of now.
NC ST (-1) at Syracuse
NC ST (-2.5) vs UNC
NC ST (-6.5) vs Wake
NC St (-7.0) vs Clemson
NC St (+4) at Duke

So it doesn't surprise that ESPN Analytics views NC St's second hardest remaining game as vs Syracuse. It's in line with KP and probably betting lines at this point - KP sees us as the 88th best team.
 
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The reason they are favoured much more in those other games is because they are all home games. That makes a massive difference. Teams on average are 7 points better at home than on the road. So of course the expected win% are going to be much higher in home games against all those teams.

For example if Syracuse was playing at NC St this week they would be about 8 point underdogs. At home they are going to open about a one point dog

Using KP here are the projected lines for all the remaining NC St games as of now.
NC ST (-1) at Syracuse
NC ST (-2.5) vs UNC
NC ST (-6.5) vs Wake
NC St (-7.0) vs Clemson
NC St (+4) at Duke

So it doesn't surprise that ESPN Analytics views NC St's second hardest remaining game as vs Syracuse. It's in line with KP and betting lines - and KP sees us as the 88th best team.
Where does NC St rank as far as Syracuse's future opponents. Are they our toughest? Or is at Pitt.
 
Where does NC St rank as far as Syracuse's future opponents. Are they our toughest? Or is at Pitt.

Using KP front page, I would think you are correct. Pitt seems to be our hardest match - based on KP and Barttorvik which I have included at the bottom.. I estimated probabilities trying to piggy back off mid points from the Barttorvik data.
Syracuse +1 vs NC St (46%)
Syracuse +1.5 vs Duke (44%)
Syracuse +4.5 at Clemson (33%)
Syracuse +6.0 at Pitt (28%)
Syracuse -2.0 vs Wake (57%)
Syracuse +10.5 vs Georgia Tech (87%)

(Note subscribers to KP may have a line in his detailed info that is about a point different... I run the calculations manually in my head based on the team's adjusted efficiency)


I did look at Barttorvik which also has the data. Compared to KP they have us at #105 in the country vs #88, so they seem to view us about 2 points worse across most games- they also seem to like NC St more than Duke as well.

Note - I believe the opening lines will likely be about 2 points better than the ones predicted by Barttorvik below - in line with the numbers I have above. For whatever reason Barttorvik does not like us this year.

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...need only 1 more win to guarantee a non-losing season.

I know, I know -- that's setting the bar low, as a function of historical program performance. But I don't want to have another losing season.

Team has gotten a LOT better over the course of the season. We struggled to win close games earlier, and now have won back-to-back games where we closed exceptionally strongly, and put both teams away on the road.

I think we're squarely in the NIT. NCAA is a longshot at this point. Need to go 3-3 AT LEAST over the remaining games just to stay in contention, and then win 2 in the ACCT. And that still might not be enough. But at least we'd have a puncher's chance.

As stated, the team has gotten a lot better from the beginning of the year.
could so easily have a much better record: Miami, UVA, UNC were all winnable games we just let slip away
 
And could have lost ND, Ville, Richmond too so it evens out on the what if front.
but almost losing games you had won is far different actually losing games we had won. close games are in different flavors.

if you lead by 10 and the other team rallies to almost win is different than leading by 10 and ending up losing..

we had the ball in almost all these games with control of how it ended and thats more on us.
 
Despite all of the above, we have some younger players on the team. I am excited about the progress the team made since the OOC season.

Can't judge this team fully on whether they make the NCAA tournament (which they likely won't). There are some positives even if they don't.
How many of those younger players can we honestly expect back next season? I think we’re still lacking in the talent department even with more experience. It’s Judah and a bunch of role players.
 
yeah so holding the ball and not scoring the last 5 minutes...the way JB likes...hurts this metric...

should go for blowouts whenever possible.
I think we’re more than a couple roster tweaks away from having this first world problem.
 
I just want to finish over .500. Anything above that is gravy to me.

The team is playing better than in November. Credit the coaching staff, starting with Jimmy, for righting the ship. Uncredit the staff for the various foot fouls with regards to stupid comments to the media creating multiple brush fires that take away from a pretty good coaching job with the talent he has. Coaching is multi faceted these days but the X and O portion of the job, credit to Jim.

Now I say this with the human element if they win 4 straight and don't make the tourney
 
I think we’re more than a couple roster tweaks away from having this first world problem.
disagree...a lot of late leads this season have not been converted to wins.

im betting the team's plus/minus over the last 5 minutes of games this season is negative.
 
I just want to finish over .500. Anything above that is gravy to me.

The team is playing better than in November. Credit the coaching staff, starting with Jimmy, for righting the ship. Uncredit the staff for the various foot fouls with regards to stupid comments to the media creating multiple brush fires that take away from a pretty good coaching job with the talent he has. Coaching is multi faceted these days but the X and O portion of the job, credit to Jim.

Now I say this with the human element if they win 4 straight and don't make the tourney
Jim's a great coach, that's why this program has a pretty high floor. I don't think we'll ever see one of those catastrophic 8-22 type seasons with him at the helm.

Unfortunately our recruiting isn't great like it used to be. Hence why we've been far closer to our floor than our ceiling in recent seasons.
 
yeah so holding the ball and not scoring the last 5 minutes...the way JB likes...hurts this metric...

should go for blowouts whenever possible.

I wouldn't worry to much about the strategy impacting winning margin. What is much more important is just winning when it comes down to the committee.

NET is largely irrelevant in the whole scope of selecting teams. If you get quality W's, road wins, win all the games you should (avoid bad losses) - do good in the things you are supposed to per the committee -- the NET will work itself out, even if impacted a bit by margin -- it will never be the thing that holds you back from getting in.

But getting back to the take the air out of the ball strategy and impact on KP or NET. The hold the ball strategy, could have a slight negative impact on net possession efficiency, but extremely marginal. It represents about 10-12% of the overall possessions in a handful of games... maybe 2-3% of our overall possessions of the year, in a possession efficiency system.

You want to know what hurts our NET several times more - not being able to blowout teams, or much less even execute a slow down strategy, against the likes of Colgate, Bryant, and the worst p5 team in the last 20 years in Louisville. Even worse, being down to all those teams 38 minutes into the game or later.

And what hurts us even more this year is our late game play in close games down the wire against quality teams because that impact's W's directly -- and the committee is much more concerned about W's and L's than NET.
 
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Jim's a great coach, that's why this program has a pretty high floor. I don't think we'll ever see one of those catastrophic 8-22 type seasons with him at the helm.

Unfortunately our recruiting isn't great like it used to be. Hence why we've been far closer to our floor than our ceiling in recent seasons.
I don't think HCJB has lost any of his technical coaching skills. He's coaching a very young group, afterall.
The problem is in getting the blue-chips to come here to play for him in his later years.
This, despite the great cookouts that they host at the Boeheim house.
 
So vegas is projecting cuse finishes at 16-15. woof.
 
So vegas is projecting cuse finishes at 16-15. woof.

If you use the KP win projections, you get 18-13. Well, more accurately, 17.92-13.08. Projecting 2.92 wins down the stretch.
 
Jim's a great coach, that's why this program has a pretty high floor. I don't think we'll ever see one of those catastrophic 8-22 type seasons with him at the helm.

Unfortunately our recruiting isn't great like it used to be. Hence why we've been far closer to our floor than our ceiling in recent seasons.
100% correct. I said all of that with the narrow viewpoint of the coaching vs the running a program dynamic. That is a 100 page thread already being consumed.

Ultimately the 2022-2023 season has been a lowercase success for me b/c after November I saw 8 wins max. This team has defied that. If they get to 20-22 wins with a huge run i'll be beyond giddy.

Once the season ends, AD and JB need to figure out the end game. The program has too much historical spice to sputter out without a clear plan
 
I wouldn't worry to much about the strategy impacting winning margin. What is much more important is just winning when it comes down to the committee.

NET is largely irrelevant in the whole scope of selecting teams. If you get quality W's, road wins, win all the games you should (avoid bad losses) - do good in the things you are supposed to per the committee -- the NET will work itself out, even if impacted a bit by margin -- it will never be the thing that holds you back from getting in.

But getting back to the take the air out of the ball strategy and impact on KP or NET. The hold the ball strategy, could have a slight negative impact on net possession efficiency, but extremely marginal. It represents about 10-12% of the overall possessions in a handful of games... maybe 2-3% of our overall possessions of the year, in a possession efficiency system.

You want to know what hurts our NET several times more - not being able to blowout teams, or much less even execute a slow down strategy, against the likes of Colgate, Bryant, and the worst p5 team in the last 20 years in Louisville. Even worse, being down to all those teams 38 minutes into the game or later.

And what hurts us even more this year is our late game play in close games down the wire against quality teams because that impact's W's directly -- and the committee is much more concerned about W's and L's than NET.
i mean...I think the slowdown strategy negatively impacts W's and L's -

when Ive watched the team alters (for the worse) their strategy down the stretch mostly

...but maybe it is just me
 

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