15 - 10 with 6 games to go

[HOFCeluck]

For a while, sadly, the NIT has been the more important goal for this team with the bad losses and weak conference.

Also on the numbers, Duke(30) won't likely be a quad 1 win if we get it. NC State won't either as they would take a hit with a loss to us and probably can't climb back up ( 34 now).

In addition to going 6-0, we would need multiple double digit wins to help our cause as well in respect to the Net.

So it probably is ACCT win or bust no matter what.

I agree, except….double digit wins? This ain’t no BCS.

 

[jncuse]

Yep. 6-0 and we will be in the bubble conversation say next four out. Semis and it's close but need help. We actually dropped in the net after moving up to 93 after FSU. Our numbers are putrid- Richmond did worse than expected, Bryant also did worse same with the Johnnies.

I'm not quite at 6-0 either.
It somewhere between 4-2 and 6-0, plus some damage in the ACC.
But 20 wins, no matter the combination is not going to do it.

There is a lot of moving parts around us , and also "mix" of wins and losses, so its hard to squarely put a number down. But I'll throw a few win totals out there for speculation purposes (post ACC tourney)

20 no chance

21 is very unlikely to me (less than 10%), but we will at least get looked at to some degree (maybe just very quickly before getting tossed aside on day 1 of the committee) - committee does unexpected or wrong things from time to time, maybe there is a lot of breaks out there as well, maybe they have more respect for the ACC then the analytics.

22 is probably the number that things get serious.

 

[OrangeDW]

Duke and Illinois fans making sure to call us out as also not belonging

Illinois? Who are they to call anyone out? They’re on the same level as Wisconsin, and below us historically.

 

[PoppyHart]

UNC, Duke, UK, KU, UCLA

Period.

 

[Orangezoo]

I agree, except….double digit wins? This ain’t no BCS.

Point differential impacts the Net. NCS was 41.. won by 20 at BC and is now 34. I've posted since the Net came out noticeable jumps when you get big wins as it is part of the formula (is capped though).

 

[OrangeDW]

UNC, Duke, UK, KU, UCLA

Period.

Agree with the first 4.

UCLA is second tier now, with us, Michigan State, Arizona, Louisville, and a few others.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Point differential impacts the Net. NCS was 41.. won by 20 at BC and is now 34. I've posted since the Net came out noticeable jumps when you get big wins as it is part of the formula (is capped though).

Yeah it’s funny right after I made that post I was like “oh sht I bet MoV is figured into NET.”

 

[HOFCeluck]

I wouldn’t even 100 percent count Duke…they’re all but a one man program right now.

UCLA is lucky Harrick got them that shady-ass title.

 

[Orangezoo]

Yeah it’s funny right after I made that post I was like “oh sht I bet MoV is figured into NET.”

Yeah what is weird is that while the weighting is not disclosed, the MoV is the most noticeable needle mover late in the year. 7 spots for a big road win is a big move, especially when it's capped at 10 pts.

 

[jncuse]

as pessimisstic as it seems, the Orange are basically 50-50% chance (according to ESPN) to beat a ranked team in their next game...

how many teams not even in the bubble convo could say the same??!

It's not that impressive a stat - about 80 teams in the country would be 50/50 or better in a home game against NC St.

Since the Vegas odds system is largely based on metrics similar to KP (and I assume ESPN as well), one can easily use KP to come up with a number.

NC St's efficiency margin is +15.2/100 possessions. Since the average game has about 70 possessions and home teams have about a +3.5 margin (standard), that means anybody with a margin above +10.0/100 is a pick'em or better against NC St at home. And 79 teams in the country are at that level.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Tubby Smith never missed the tournament at UK and still got fired. Calipari lost in the first round as a 2 seed last year and may miss the tournament for the second time in 3 years. Who could they get better though?

 

[Orangezoo]

Tubby Smith never missed the tournament at UK and still got fired. Calipari lost in the first round as a 2 seed last year and may miss the tournament for the second time in 3 years. Who could they get better though?

Yeah I mean as it stands right now they would have to spend the money to steal someone from within the SEC.

The elite recruiting guys are locked in, many other schools have long term program guys. Just very few options available. Shaka at Marquette might be on their radar but he didn't cut it at UT.

They can dream but they are pulling Wright out of retirement. I think they have to live with Cal until another Beard emerges and they are first to the punch.

 

[jncuse]

It’s win the ACCT or bust as far as I’m concerned for making the tourney. Not sure short of that what it’ll take. There’s just not enough good teams in this league.

There certainly is a path without winning the ACC tourney. But you can't lose many.

 

[jncuse]

Assuming this is based on BPI; a fair amount? Villanova is 11-13, they're a few spots ahead of us in BPI. Washington state is 10-15, they're ahead of us in BPI. We're 83rd in BPI, there are a ton of teams around us that aren't really sniffing a bid either. Plus NC State is 43rd in BPI and KP, so while they're ranked, that is probably overrating their team strength.

Anyway, lots of mediocre or worse college teams are going to be close to tossups at home against a top 40ish team.

Agreed - I came up with 79 NCAA teams as a rough estimate.

 

[jncuse]

It’s only a positive if most players return.

I was trying to be as positive as I can, after making a few negative posts!

 

[Orangezoo]

There certainly is a path without winning the ACC tourney. But you can't lose many.

At 6 games left, I think our best case scenario would be enough convincing wins to be sitting somewhere between 55 and 65 in the NET. I can't see us moving any higher than that given who we play. It's hard to see the 50s as even realistic. With that then I think we have to land where we can play and beat UVA in the ACCT for any shot without winning it all. To make that happen we also have to have a good MoV in as many wins as possible to go with.

I think with such a young team as well you need to have 19 or 20 wins to give them that belief to go with.

 

[jncuse]

UNC, Duke, UK, KU, UCLA

Period.

Used to include Indiana but they have not done enough in modern era (Post 2000) to earn that regard anymore.

Arguably UCLA is just hanging on us as well (and has had more success than Indiana since 2000), but I am OK with including them in that group.

I tend to just go Duke/UK/KU/UNC

 

[jncuse]

At 6 games left, I think our best case scenario would be enough convincing wins to be sitting somewhere between 55 and 65 in the NET. I can't see us moving any higher than that given who we play. It's hard to see the 50s as even realistic. With that then I think we have to land where we can play and beat UVA in the ACCT for any shot without winning it all. To make that happen we also have to have a good MoV in as many wins as possible to go with.

I think with such a young team as well you need to have 19 or 20 wins to give them that belief to go with.

I don't even know if we get to 65 with a nice record the rest of the way. There used to be a good tool out there where you could project the RPI by merely putting in your wins and losses. I think Barttorvik may have a predicted NET figure as well - would have to check.

I have often said that the committee looks at RPI and NET as to whether you should be looked at more closely or not for what is important to them. They don't pick teams on that alone. Generally if you are past 60, you need Q1 wins, road wins that are out of the ordinary - something that jumps out to hang around in the discussion. .And some teams do. At least 1 (and maybe 2) of our recent bubble teams got in with RPI's around 70. But those teams got in because they had a number of Q1 wins, or road wins -- something worth further consideration.

And this team would likely not have that,.

 

[jncuse]

Illinois? Who are they to call anyone out? They’re on the same level as Wisconsin, and below us historically.

I would put Illinois below Wisconsin.

Wisconsin has had a really nice run the last 25 years - they are probably in the top 10 teams in terms of elite 8 appearances.

But not near a blue blood either, and since they have no history pre-2000 or titles, not near our level eitgher.

 

[Orangezoo]

I don't even know if we get to 65 with a nice record the rest of the way. There used to be a good tool out there where you could project the RPI by merely putting in your wins and losses. I think Barttorvik may have a predicted NET figure as well - would have to check.

I have often said that the committee looks at RPI and NET as to whether you should be looked at more closely or not for what is important to them. They don't pick teams on that alone. Generally if you are past 60, you need Q1 wins, road wins that are out of the ordinary - something that jumps out to hang around in the discussion. .And some teams do. At least 1 (and maybe 2) of our recent bubble teams got in with RPI's around 70. But those teams got in because they had a number of Q1 wins, or road wins -- something worth further consideration.

And this team would likely not have that,.

My original thought was 70s in the NET even with 6-0. A solid MoV with some help could have them in better territory.

All that said your point on Q1 wins factors more. Especially when we only have a single q2 victory at the moment. The two remaining road games are likely the only chance to get q1 wins which is shaky given Clemson is now a q2 road game to boot.. assuming they move back up enough to withstand a home loss to SU.

That doesn't even factor in that our non conference is absent anything but bad losses.

 

[jncuse]

Agree with the first 4.

UCLA is second tier now, with us, Michigan State, Arizona, Louisville, and a few others.

Indiana and UCLA have dropped out of the first tier due to performance in modern times ( the last 20 years)

Hate to say this, but we are now getting close to 10 years with not really playing near the level of a "second tier program". Were there for now, but if we have another 5-6 years of this ****, then the modern passage of time factor will come into play for us too, and we may no longer be that "second tier" program either.

 

[OrangeDW]

I would put Illinois below Wisconsin.

Wisconsin has had a really nice run the last 25 years - they are probably in the top 10 teams in terms of elite 8 appearances.

But not near a blue blood either, and since they have no history pre-2000 or titles, not near our level eitgher.

Someone also needs to tell Illinois fans that we don’t talk to fans who’ve never witnessed a national title.

Also half of their major accomplishments happened before black kids could play, so it doesn’t count and nobody cares.

 

[721Comstock]

It’s only a positive if most players return.

And the coach doesn’t.

 

[CardiacCuse]

Point differential impacts the Net. NCS was 41.. won by 20 at BC and is now 34. I've posted since the Net came out noticeable jumps when you get big wins as it is part of the formula (is capped though).

View attachment 224989

yeah so holding the ball and not scoring the last 5 minutes...the way JB likes...hurts this metric...

should go for blowouts whenever possible.

 

[Orangezoo]

yeah so holding the ball and not scoring the last 5 minutes...the way JB likes...hurts this metric...

should go for blowouts whenever possible.

In a two or 3 possession game its different than a 10-12 pt game.