2021 MLB Season

[dasher]

another genius move by Cora. Houck, perfect through 5 with only 53 pitches, pulled in the top of the 6th.

 

[jncuse]

another genius move by Cora. Houck, perfect through 5 with only 53 pitches, pulled in the top of the 6th.

Overthinking analytics / arbitrary pitch counts in a near must win game.

The odd thing is for the next few days the Red Sox will likely be pushing key relievers more then they want / using starters from the pen. But yet you adhere to an arbitrary pitch count in a crucial game.

EDIT - After thinking about this further it appears Hauck had already pitched beyond his pitch count for the day based on what I saw elsewhere. And it had nothing to do with the silly one-game micro analytics to go to the pen as soon as possible when a starter is on that don't help long term.

 

[bpo57]

another genius move by Cora. Houck, perfect through 5 with only 53 pitches, pulled in the top of the 6th.

I hear you on this move. I kinda felt the same way. He has made occasional head scratching moves but on the other hand it's pretty amazing that this team has won 90+. The bullpen is held together by duct tape, particularly with Whitlock on the shelf.

 

[bpo57]

Potential for utter chaos in the AL Wild Card race tomorrow.

 

[dasher]

I hear you on this move. I kinda felt the same way. He has made occasional head scratching moves but on the other hand it's pretty amazing that this team has won 90+. The bullpen is held together by duct tape, particularly with Whitlock on the shelf.

The thing I give him, and it is a big thing, his teams play hard and don't seem to quit. But some of his in game moves...

 

[Alsacs]

I am shocked what the Rays have done to the Yankees.
They are really playing normal on their lineup.

I doubt they try tomorrow.

 

[bpo57]

I am shocked what the Rays have done to the Yankees.
They are really playing normal on their lineup.

I doubt they try tomorrow.

Over the last two seasons the Rays are 23-11 against NY. They've pretty much owned the Yanks. There is no love lost between the two teams and I'm sure TB would like to reduce the likelihood of their building being 2/3 filled by NYY fans in the postseason.

 

[dasher]

I am shocked what the Rays have done to the Yankees.
They are really playing normal on their lineup.

I doubt they try tomorrow.

They 100% will try tomorrow. Their owner hates the Yankees and resents that the yanks have their spring training site in Tampa and sort of own the city. Plus, this is where the lack of an expanded roster hurts the yanks. The Rays don't have that many subs to put in.

 

[jncuse]

The Rays have a very deep roster with a lack of crappy players (pitching and batting). Even their "rest" lineup is fairly strong. It is hard for them to tank, assuming the players are trying to win.

 

[jncuse]

Potential for utter chaos in the AL Wild Card race tomorrow.

The formats are not that standard in various scenarios.

Here are the '21 playoff tiebreaker scenarios

Just as extra innings are sometimes required to resolve games, extra games are sometimes required to resolve regular-season races. It hasn’t happened often, even in the dual-Wild Card era in which more teams are in the late-season mathematical mix. Since Major League Baseball went to the...

www.mlb.com

Probably the most fascinating scenario to me is if there is a "3 way tie for two wildcard spots" which is not that unfathomable. (assume those are Boston, Toronto, New York). In this scenario Boston gets preference, followed by Toronto, then New York. (Not sure what happens if Seattle is one of these three teams!)

In this scenario the likely schedule would be:
Monday (Game 1) - Toronto (Team B) at Boston (Team A), Winner gets to Wild Card Game
Tuesday (Game 2) - Loser of Toronto/Boston vs New York (Team C), Winner gets to Wild Card Game
Wednesday - Wildcard Game - Winner of Game 1 vs Winner of Game 2

Boston has first choice of what "Team Desingation" they want. They could choose to host Game 1 on Monday (Team A), or wait to host Game 2 on Tuesday (Team C). But I would strongly suspect that Boston would rather have 2 cracks at getting to the wildcard game then just 1, so they select Team A designation. Toronto similarly would rather have 2 cracks, but by choosing Team B they would be on the road for both games. I still think that "Team B" with 2 cracks on the road is better than "Team C" with one crack at home.

Now if there is a 3 way tie for one wild card spot, it would be a more expected format. The team with the best record in games amongst the three would play on Tuesday. The teams with the two worst records would play on Monday. There is no "2 Shots at getting to the Wildcard" scenario.

 

[jncuse]

Seattle wins.

Seattle blew a 3-1 lead in the 8th, but came back with 5 runs in the bottom of the 8th to take the lead 6-4.

 

[cuseattle]

Haniger was on fire. 4-5, hr, 5rbi

 

[Alsacs]

 

[jncuse]

Based on the Implied Probabilities of Current Money Lines:


There is 49.9% chance that only New York and Boston advance after today:
39.6% of that comes from both New York and Boston winning
10.3% of that comes from both Toronto and Seattle Losing

There is a 100% chance that Boston advances beyond today
There is a 100% chance that New York advances beyond today

There is a 43.5% chance Toronto advances beyond today.
- 5.9% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 4 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 3.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for the 2 wildcard spots
- 21.5% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 3 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.
- 12.6% chance that Toronto advances as part of a 2 way tie for 1 wildcard spot.

There is a 38.0% chance Seattle advances beyond today.

There is a 30.5% chance that only Boston clinches a wildcard spot today
There is a 16.9% chance that only New York clinches a wildcard spot today

Overall there is a 27.5%** chance of all 4 teams advancing after today:
There is a 5.9% chance that there is a 4 way tie for the Wildcard.
There is a 21.6% chance of a 3 way tie for the last wildcard spot (3 for 1 scenario)
- 5.9% chance of 4 way tie.
- 13.9% chance that Boston clinches Wildcard, and New York, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
- 7.7% chance that New York clinches Wildcard, and Boston, Toronto and Seattle are tied.
** might be a calc error on the 27.5% above. I added all of the 3 above scenarios which seems logical, but that 27.5% seems high. The 3 individual probabilities above are correct. Not sure if I should add all three.

There is a 5.7% chance that there is a 3 way tie for 2 Wildcard Spots, which has the fascinating scenario of a "Lose Game 163" and not possibly being eliminated scenario.
- 3.5% chance of a Boston, New York, Toronto tie... whereby Boston and Toronto could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at New York on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.
- 2.3% chance of a Boston, New York, Seattle tie... whereby Boston and New York could lose game 163 on Monday and still get another chance at Seattle on Tuesday to advance to the Wednesday Wildcard.

There is a 21% chance that Boston/New York clinch a wildcard spot, and 2 teams tie for the final wildcard spot
- 13.4% chance that Boston is the Clinching Team
- 7.5% chance that New York is the Clinching Team
- 12.6% chance that Toronto is in this scenario
- 8.3% chance that Seattle is in the Scenario

 

[OrangeDW]

Pulling for Toronto and Seattle. Let’s get nuts!

 

[MSOrange]

I know MLB Network will swing around to different games, but seems like a missed opportunity to only have Dodgers-Brewers on national tv if I have an accurate schedule.

 

[OrangeDW]

I know MLB Network will swing around to different games, but seems like a missed opportunity to only have Dodgers-Brewers on national tv if I have an accurate schedule.

This may be a day where I need to find a bar that will have most or all of these on, and just settle in and enjoy it. Almost like March Madness opening weekend.

 

[jncuse]

I just hope that one of New York/Boston loses so that we create some chaos over the next few days.

 

[dasher]

I just hope that one of New York/Boston loses so that we create some chaos over the next few days.

yeah, I'm hoping for not only a Boston win, but an easy win at that. The last two games have been torture. They should have made the guys at gitmo watch these last two games and root for the Sox. They would have spilled whatever beans they had to spill.

 

[Alsacs]

In a 4 way tie.
New York chose to play at Boston.
Rather at Toronto.
Boston is Team A
Toronto is Team B
New York is Team C
Seattle is Team D.
New York chose Boston as their choice.

 

[JustPherU]

In a 4 way tie.
New York chose to play at Boston.
Rather at Toronto.
Boston is Team A
Toronto is Team B
New York is Team C
Seattle is Team D.
New York chose Boston as their choice.

Is this fact?

 

[jncuse]

Personally as a fan I would the scenario of one of the Following (about 6%):

Boston Loss, New York Loss, Seattle Win, Toronto Loss
Boston Loss, New York Loss, Torono Win, Seattle Loss

The 3 teams tied for 2 wildcard spots playoff format is quite wacky it allows a team to lose the Monday game, and still win on the Tuesday night to advance to Wednesday Wildcard.

The 3 teams for.1 wildcard spot, does not have that feature.

 

[Alsacs]

Is this fact?

 

[jncuse]

In a 4 way tie.
New York chose to play at Boston.
Rather at Toronto.
Boston is Team A
Toronto is Team B
New York is Team C
Seattle is Team D.
New York chose Boston as their choice.

So these choices have already all been made before today. Is that correct?
The "Team A", "Team B", "Team C", "Team D" in all the scenarios, not just the 4 team scenarios but the 3 team scenarios?

Would make sense so teams can fly out as soon as possible after the game and know where they are heading.

 

[Alsacs]

So these choices have already all been made. Is that correct?
The "Team A", "Team B", "Team C", "Team D" in all the scenarios, not just the 4 team scenarios but the 3 team scenarios?

Would make sense so teams can fly out as soon as possible after the game and know where they are heading.

Yes.
They were already made.
Apparently New York chose Boston because it’s a close flight and wouldn’t require any issues getting players into Canada.

Seattle would fly to Toronto if their is a 4 way tie.