2022 Mets thread

[Bayside44]

He can overthrow a lot in these games, having seen it first hand.

Hope he smokes em tonight though.

And, well...

 

[Orangezoo]

Max and Jake have been awful down the stretch. Max carrying over into the post season.

 

[donniesyracuse]

So Pete, who tied for the major league lead in RBIs, enabled the Mets to win 4 more games than they would if they had a worse than average first baseman? They would have won 97 without Pete?

It’s very possible. An individual position player can only have so much impact on a game. 27 outs need to be recorded. Aaron Judge was Babe Ruth in August and the Yankees won ten games.

 

[SWC75]

Well so much for the theory that we will be dynamite in the post season because we've got two Cy Young award winners to throw at the other team.

I wonder what Scherzer's WAR is tonight.

 

[ScrabbCuse]

I take back what I said earlier about Max. What a disappointment. This team won 101 games and if they go out in the wildcard round, will probably be the most disappointing Mets team in history. I’m not sure what Steve Cohen does this off-season, but he needs to make some sort of statement and create a winning culture. So sick of LOLMets.

 

[SWC75]

It’s very possible. An individual position player can only have so much impact on a game. 27 outs need to be recorded. Aaron Judge was Babe Ruth in August and the Yankees won ten games.

4 more wins isn't one a month.

 

[SWC75]

I take back what I said earlier about Max. What a disappointment. This team won 101 games and if they go out in the wildcard round, will probably be the most disappointing Mets team in history. I’m not sure what Steve Cohen does this off-season, but he needs to make some sort of statement and create a winning culture. So sick of LOLMets.

1988 and 2006-08 say "High!"

 

[ScrabbCuse]

1988 and 2006-08 say "High!"

I’ll take your word on 1988 as I was too young to remember that season. 2006 they got to game 7 of the NLCS. Should have won that series. Always will remember Beltran looking at strike 3. 2007 and 2008 were brutal but those teams weren’t as good as this one. After getting the second best record in franchise history, this one really stings.

 

[donniesyracuse]

4 more wins isn't one a month.

You’re right, Alonso was worth thirty wins. All the stat heads are stupid. You are smart. “Runs and Bases” is all we should care about.

 

[dwilmont44]

Re

Build

 

[Orangezoo]

Re

Build

You can only do it so many times.

 

[SWC75]

You’re right, Alonso was worth thirty wins. All the stat heads are stupid. You are smart. “Runs and Bases” is all we should care about.

I offered my own idea as part of the smorgasbord of stats people can look at. As I stated each time, I like my stats basic and simple: everyone should be able to easily compute them and look at the resulting number and see what it represents.

I wonder if Steve Cohen will decide not to give Pete the big contract when the time comes because we've proven we can win 97 games without him.

 

[SWC75]

Re

Build

Let's not give up quite yet. However, I agree that some work will have to be done in the offseason. We've had a strong year but "keep the train moving" didn't work at critical times and Sharezer and DeGrom are 38 and 34, respectively and have become kind of fragile. Both issues could be dealt with if we could get Ohtani, but what would we have to give up for him? Or will the 'prospects' be the real deal?

 

[donniesyracuse]

I offered my own idea as part of the smorgasbord of stats people can look at. As I stated each time, I like my stats basic and simple: everyone should be able to easily compute them and look at the resulting number and see what it represents.

I wonder if Steve Cohen will decide not to give Pete the big contract when the time comes because we've proven we can win 97 games without him.

You don’t take the time to understand a stat because you don’t like it so you mock it and mock me.

 

[SWC75]

You don’t take the time to understand a stat because you don’t like it so you mock it and mock me.

I'm not mocking you. I just prefer a different approach and believe that Pete Alonso was more impactful that 4 extra wins.

 

[donniesyracuse]

I'm not mocking you. I just prefer a different approach and believe that Pete Alonso was more impactful that 4 extra wins.

I wonder what Scherzer's WAR is tonight.

I wonder if Steve Cohen will decide not to give Pete the big contract when the time comes because we've proven we can win 97 games without him.

 

[Orangezoo]

Analytical models are far from perfect. They are a tool but should never be considered a single source of truth.

Forget their equation and let's take a look at a few things.

131- RBIs is 23 pct of the Mets scoring this year.

The Mets outscored their opponent by 166 runs roughly an average margin of 1 per game.

Take Pete away and replace with an average first baseman.. and you lose about 60 RBIs and arguably some of Pete's runs scored.

With an average of 1 run per game margin- this would drop that down to a half to 3/4 margin per game approximately. No way you see 97 wins in that scenario. The math to get to that conclusion must be heavily flawed as even if you inject other variables to reverse engineer it and find correlation that doesn't make up the massive gap without his bat in the lineup.

 

[OrangeFoo]

Let's not give up quite yet. However, I agree that some work will have to be done in the offseason. We've had a strong year but "keep the train moving" didn't work at critical times and Sharezer and DeGrom are 38 and 34, respectively and have become kind of fragile. Both issues could be dealt with if we could get Ohtani, but what would we have to give up for him? Or will the 'prospects' be the real deal?

I think the bigger issue is relying on a 38 year old and a 34 year old with significant injury issues. For better or worse Jake is now a 2 pitch pitcher who can go the lineup twice. Admittedly his two pitches are the best in baseball and he will strike out 18 in his first two trips through the line up. Here is an innovative ideas… the Mets should have made him a long bridge to Diaz who is the true best pitcher on the team. But who knows whether Jake’s arm could handle that every few days.

Mets also need to find a hitting strategy that balances power and grinding out at bats. The Braves and now Padres are proving why chicks dig the long ball.

I won’t speak about the bullpen because everyone can see the issues there outside of Diaz. But the farm system needs to start producing or they need to trade the prospects for hitters who can hit for power.

Lastly love Pete… but he gets in his own had and really opens up the plate by chasing when the pressure is on. It’s great to blow up the As and Nats but what about in that series against the Braves and the whole season against the Padres?

 

[sutomcat]

Snell vs deGrom tonight. Let’s see if this Mets team shows some character bouncing back from the disaster that was last night.

I hope so.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Analytical models are far from perfect. They are a tool but should never be considered a single source of truth.

Forget their equation and let's take a look at a few things.

131- RBIs is 23 pct of the Mets scoring this year.

The Mets outscored their opponent by 166 runs roughly an average margin of 1 per game.

Take Pete away and replace with an average first baseman.. and you lose about 60 RBIs and arguably some of Pete's runs scored.

With an average of 1 run per game margin- this would drop that down to a half to 3/4 margin per game approximately. No way you see 97 wins in that scenario. The math to get to that conclusion must be heavily flawed as even if you inject other variables to reverse engineer it and find correlation that doesn't make up the massive gap without his bat in the lineup.

There is a lot of noise in RBIs. Analytics are about controlling for noise. One is trying to decipher how good a player is independent of variables beyond his control. RBIs are largely about opportunity. If you run several simulations of Alonso’s season, you will have high variability in RBI totals. I will have to check, but I think FanGraphs uses wOBA for the offensive part of WAR. RBIs are not a part of the formula. Of course his HRs, which result in lots of RBIs, are a big part of his wOBA.

First basemen and DHs have generally low WARs because their defensive skill sets are not scarce and they are mostly strong offensive players.

It’s also important to remember that WAR is an average number of wins a player would generate. It’s also not specific to a team, but the league in general.

For the record, I don’t believe in one single source of truth and never claimed it was. I posted it for interest and amusement.

 

[SWC75]

Perfectly legitimate questions. In the first one, if I weas mocking anyone it was Scherzer, not you. And, if Pete's produced 4 more wins for the Mets than a below average player would have, I would assume Steve Cohen would legitimately wonder if he should sign him to a huge contract to keep him.

I just think WAR is a stat that is too complicated for the average fan to compute or fully understand and the result doesn't pass the look test.

As ti RBIs, that acronym means "runs batted in". You win games with runs so batting them in is a good thing to do. So is scoring them. The other stats are only important to the extent that they make it more likely that you will score or drive runs in. Sometimes the simplest logic is the best.

 

[donniesyracuse]

As ti RBIs, that acronym means "runs batted in". You win games with runs so batting them in is a good thing to do. So is scoring them. The other stats are only important to the extent that they make it more likely that you will score or drive runs in. Sometimes the simplest logic is the best.

That’s fine, but RBIs, like many other stats, often have as much to do with fortune and circumstances as a player’s skills. Some of us want to attempt to control for some of that luck when assessing a player’s worth. Others do not. That’s fine.

I will note that advanced stats tend to be more strongly correlated with future results than current results. For example, FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA. Simple logic tells me that FIP might be something in which a fan should be interested.

Also, advanced stats help us recognize the limitations of the “look test.”

 

[SWC75]

That’s fine, but RBIs, like many other stats, often have as much to do with fortune and circumstances as a player’s skills. Some of us want to attempt to control for some of that luck when assessing a player’s worth. Others do not. That’s fine.

I will note that advanced stats tend to be more strongly correlated with future results than current results. For example, FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than ERA. Simple logic tells me that FIP might be something in which a fan should be interested.

Also, advanced stats help us recognize the limitations of the “look test.”

I'm more into breaking down what happened vs. predicting what will happen, although there's obviously a relationship there. Anyone can use whatever approach they prefer. The best players will tend to be at the top of anyone's list.

 

[SWC75]

A comeback from a 1-8 deficit to win in extra innings is exciting and fun unless: 1) You were the team that had the 8-1 lead or 2) Your own team is trying to protect a 1-0 lead in an elimination game.

 

[Bayside44]

Cohen will ask Judge what his number is.