2022 Mets thread

[SWC75]

There's our batting champion! And assists to Alonso and Canha who really made Morejon work.

 

[Orangezoo]

There is a lot of noise in RBIs. Analytics are about controlling for noise. One is trying to decipher how good a player is independent of variables beyond his control. RBIs are largely about opportunity. If you run several simulations of Alonso’s season, you will have high variability in RBI totals. I will have to check, but I think FanGraphs uses wOBA for the offensive part of WAR. RBIs are not a part of the formula. Of course his HRs, which result in lots of RBIs, are a big part of his wOBA.

First basemen and DHs have generally low WARs because their defensive skill sets are not scarce and they are mostly strong offensive players.

It’s also important to remember that WAR is an average number of wins a player would generate. It’s also not specific to a team, but the league in general.

For the record, I don’t believe in one single source of truth and never claimed it was. I posted it for interest and amusement.

I wasn't picking on you or attacking just for the record. 15 yrs in analytics makes me a bit of a snob/skeptic especially when logic and statistics don't add up. Often times the advanced metrics can be as much noise if not more than your standard metrics.

I struggle with WAR for a number of reasons of which I will have to leave an IOU at this late hour to go into detail. It's an imperfect model in my opinion and one that is discussion worthy but I wouldn't be building my future roster around it.

 

[SWC75]

Ottavino has given us good service but to pitch the 9th inning with a 5 run lead and walk three guys and hit another - Ugh! Fortunately Lugo was able to put an end to things. Now let's win this thing tomorrow (7:07PM, ESPN). and move on.

 

[donniesyracuse]

I struggle with WAR for a number of reasons of which I will have to leave an IOU at this late hour to go into detail. It's an imperfect model in my opinion and one that is discussion worthy but I wouldn't be building my future roster around it.

I don’t believe organizations are building rosters around WAR. My understanding is each organization has it’s own formula for calculating player value. None of those are publicly available.

Also, of course WAR is imperfect. I don’t understand why people are constantly compelled to point that out. When people post RBI totals or batting averages, I don’t feel the need to point out the limits of those measures every time. If someone cites those stats, I don’t assume that person is advocating limiting one’s attention to only those stats. For some reason with WAR, you get the obligatory “it’s only one piece of data that shouldn’t be taken alone.” Yeah, no duh.

 

[sutomcat]

Thought that was a gutty victory. Great to see Jake pitch well in a huge game. Great to see the team revert to the form they showed winning all those games in the regular season. Made the Padre pitchers really have to work to get outs.

But to get the win, we used our 3 best relief pitchers.

Let’s hope Bassitt is on tonight. He probably is the most likely starter we have to go 7 or 8 innings. But the Padres do a good job running pitch counts and it is likely even if Chris pitches well, he will be done after 6 innings.

How do the Mets navigate the last few innings?

My guess is that they go with the Big 3 again and hope they are able to rise to the occasion.

It is worrisome. I have a feeling Walker or Peterson is going to need to come in and pitch well at some point for us to win this one.

Musgrove has been brillliant his last 3 starts. HE has given up 1 earned run in 16 innings.

This is going to take a great effort to get a win.

 

[Orangezoo]

I don’t believe organizations are building rosters around WAR. My understanding is each organization has it’s own formula for calculating player value. None of those are publicly available.

Also, of course WAR is imperfect. I don’t understand why people are constantly compelled to point that out. When people post RBI totals or batting averages, I don’t feel the need to point out the limits of those measures every time. If someone cites those stats, I don’t assume that person is advocating limiting one’s attention to only those stats. For some reason with WAR, you get the obligatory “it’s only one piece of data that shouldn’t be taken alone.” Yeah, no duh.

Let's take a step back. I still am not sure why you are getting so defensive as though you are being attacked. You are assuming way too much from my post. It's public forum and there is disagreement with one of the objects in your post. I was clear in why I am skeptical but that wasn't attacking you nor did I infer you were being obtuse in posting about WAR. It's just debate and you yourself posted it to bring it up generally and my response was a general view on advanced metrics. So maybe let's cool the waters down here and everybody have a nice Sunday.

I'm gonna pass on the detailed response as it's departing from the positivity of last night's win. One more and we will have all 3 teams from the NLE in the divisional.

 

[Orangezoo]

Thought that was a gutty victory. Great to see Jake pitch well in a huge game. Great to see the team revert to the form they showed winning all those games in the regular season. Made the Padre pitchers really have to work to get outs.

But to get the win, we used our 3 best relief pitchers.

Let’s hope Bassitt is on tonight. He probably is the most likely starter we have to go 7 or 8 innings. But the Padres do a good job running pitch counts and it is likely even if Chris pitches well, he will be done after 6 innings.

How do the Mets navigate the last few innings?

My guess is that they go with the Big 3 again and hope they are able to rise to the occasion.

It is worrisome. I have a feeling Walker or Peterson is going to need to come in and pitch well at some point for us to win this one.

Musgrove has been brillliant his last 3 starts. HE has given up 1 earned run in 16 innings.

This is going to take a great effort to get a win.

It's still fascinating how the Padres didn't finish with a better record to me. Their pitching staff is extremely strong top to bottom and they are loaded with power hitters. Of course Soto has been a disappointment this season as a whole but still- this is an extremely strong 89 win team, akin to the Braves last year.

We need the win but we also need to have something in the tank if we do. Tough sledding and that damn Cubbies series I fear is going to haunt this team.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Let's take a step back. I still am not sure why you are getting so defensive as though you are being attacked. You are assuming way too much from my post. It's public forum and there is disagreement with one of the objects in your post. I was clear in why I am skeptical but that wasn't attacking you nor did I infer you were being obtuse in posting about WAR. It's just debate and you yourself posted it to bring it up generally and my response was a general view on advanced metrics. So maybe let's cool the waters down here and everybody have a nice Sunday.

You are right. I definitely need to dial it back. I sincerely apologize. I get frustrated by the frequent (often ignorant) dismissals of advanced stats I encounter. Your post was certainly not ignorant. It did not deserve the venom I was spitting. I am interested in hearing your thoughts on WAR when you get around to posting them.

 

[orange79]

This is going to take a great effort to get a win.

 

[Orangezoo]

You are right. I definitely need to dial it back. I sincerely apologize. I get frustrated by the frequent (often ignorant) dismissals of advanced stats I encounter. Your post was certainly not ignorant. It did not deserve the venom I was spitting. I am interested in hearing your thoughts on WAR when you get around to posting them.

All good always- I wanted to make sure i was clear that i wasnt attacking either in case it appeared that way. I will definitely do so. Might even just start an advanced metrics in sports thread when I do so not to clutter this up.

LGM and LGO!

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

I offered my own idea as part of the smorgasbord of stats people can look at. As I stated each time, I like my stats basic and simple: everyone should be able to easily compute them and look at the resulting number and see what it represents.

I wonder if Steve Cohen will decide not to give Pete the big contract when the time comes because we've proven we can win 97 games without him.

Stats are great in the law of large numbers world. There are people who meet moments, and there are people who don't.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

If coach Beard coached baseball

 

[Orangezoo]

If your top 3 starters can't get it done when the pressure is on then 101 wins means nothing. Padres patient yet aggressive in early innings and that strategy has paid off in every single game we have played them this year. Still haven't figured out how to handle it. As good as Buck has been he has been out managed while our staff has been out pitched. Bass needs to keep us in it somehow.

 

[OrangeFoo]

If your top 3 starters can't get it done when the pressure is on then 101 wins means nothing. Padres patient yet aggressive in early innings and that strategy has paid off in every single game we have played them this year. Still haven't figured out how to handle it. As good as Buck has been he has been out managed while our staff has been out pitched. Bass needs to keep us in it somehow.

How has buck been outmanaged? He’s played all of his cards… three best starters, best relievers, best hitters, etc… At some point the players need to do what they are paid to do. Bassett can’t walk the worst padres players. The Mets hitters actually need to get on base.

It’ll be an interesting offseason… I think they need to reup Nimmo, Diaz, Bassett and Walker. Everyone else can walk… including Jake. Jake should go to a team which is a pitcher away from winning a title. Mets as constructed need to tear down before they can rebuild.

 

[SWC75]

Is that Luis? The beard seems smaller and more stylish.

 

[SWC75]

So it ends with a whimper. I don't know how you beat San Diego when they are playing like this.
Darvish and Musgrove were what we thought we had in DeGrom and Scherzer. My biggest disappointment is that in the first half of the season, the Mets laughed at deficits. There was even a game where they went in the 9th inning trailing and scored 7 runs to win. Down the stretch, if the Mets fell behind the game was over.

102-63 is still a heck of a year. Now we've got to see who will be on next year's team. I remain optimistic for the Mets future because I believe Steve Cohen wants to build a long-term contender and I think he's doing things the right way. The traditional Mets roller-coaster ride is coming to an end. More good and great seasons are on the way.

 

[Orangezoo]

So it ends with a whimper. I don't know how you beat San Diego when they are playing like this.
Darvish and Musgrove were what we thought we had in DeGrom and Scherzer. My biggest disappointment is that in the first half of the season, the Mets laughed at deficits. There was even a game where they went in the 9th inning trailing and scored 7 runs to win. Down the stretch, if the Mets fell behind the game was over.

102-63 is still a heck of a year. Now we've got to see who will be on next year's team. I remain optimistic for the Mets future because I believe Steve Cohen wants to build a long-term contender and I think he's doing things the right way. The traditional Mets roller-coaster ride is coming to an end. More good and great seasons are on the way.

The Mets were the only good team the Padres played consistently great baseball against all year. Every time the Mets played them it seemed as though they were dominant and the Mets were a bottom of the NL team as opposed to 100 win team. One of the weirdest years in that regard.

Seasons like this come so rarely for the Mets it's hard to even think about or place any hope in the off season. Go buy a team like the Dodgers did is probably the best way to go but for now this franchise once again let's down a tortured fanbase.

 

[ScrabbCuse]

So it ends with a whimper. I don't know how you beat San Diego when they are playing like this.
Darvish and Musgrove were what we thought we had in DeGrom and Scherzer. My biggest disappointment is that in the first half of the season, the Mets laughed at deficits. There was even a game where they went in the 9th inning trailing and scored 7 runs to win. Down the stretch, if the Mets fell behind the game was over.

102-63 is still a heck of a year. Now we've got to see who will be on next year's team. I remain optimistic for the Mets future because I believe Steve Cohen wants to build a long-term contender and I think he's doing things the right way. The traditional Mets roller-coaster ride is coming to an end. More good and great seasons are on the way.

Might have been the least enjoyable last month of a 100+ win season I’ve ever seen. I feel better with Cohen at the helm but I don’t envy him. He’s got a lot of work to do over the next few months. Have a feeling we are going to see a brand new pitching staff next season and have 3-4 new position players in the lineup. I like certain facets of Buck’s leadership but I’m still not sold on whether he’s the guy to take us to the promised land. His postseason track record with all his teams isn’t pretty. I’ll try to remain as optimistic as I can but the reality is the championship drought is now 37 years. I sure hope it doesn’t hit 40 as we are approaching Knicks and Jets territory.

I enjoyed the friendly banter on the boards this season and look forward to doing this again next March. Until then, enjoy the off-season.

 

[SWC75]

In the post-game show, they were debating which of the Mets free agents the team should prioritize in resigning: 2023 New York Mets Free Agents Tracker
Most of the talk was about DeGrom, Nimmo and Diaz, although Walker was mentioned, too. Surprisingly , Nimmo seemed to be the favorite. I would pick Diaz. we're in an era where a closer may be as important as a starter. He's only 28 and just had one of the great years ever for a closer. DeGrom and Scherzer are 34 and 38 and fragile. Nimmo's a good player but not a superstar.

 

[OrangeDW]

The Mets were the only good team the Padres played consistently great baseball against all year. Every time the Mets played them it seemed as though they were dominant and the Mets were a bottom of the NL team as opposed to 100 win team. One of the weirdest years in that regard.

Seasons like this come so rarely for the Mets it's hard to even think about or place any hope in the off season. Go buy a team like the Dodgers did is probably the best way to go but for now this franchise once again let's down a tortured fanbase.

This isn’t really accurate though…..the Dodgers had the foundation built for years - largely with home grown players they brought up and developed, and castoffs that became stars. They didn’t build the team by signing/trading for big money guys…that was more the final step once the foundation was already strong. For example, they didn’t overpay to keep Greinke, didn’t get Bryce Harper, etc.

There was a number of years though where the Dodgers were consistently in the mix but they weren’t ever going out and getting the major big money guys. Eventually it became the right move(Mookie) to do it.

If the Mets farm system is strong, it will be curious to see if they try a similar strategy.

 

[SWC75]

On August 14, the Mets had won 17 of 20 games, their first really hot streak of the season. They were 75-40 and had a 5 1/2 game lead. Then came that trip to Atlanta. After that, including the San Diego series, they were 28-24. September was supposed to be the month they had an easy schedule and would run away with it. They were 19-16 after September 1st. 25 of those 35 games were won or lost by three runs or less. The Mets' 19 wins included four games where they overcame deficits to win. Two were 0-1 deficits early in games. They also overcame one 2 run deficit and a 3 run deficit. Other than that, if they did get the early lead, they lost.

Their overall offensive numbers for the season were not bad:

2022 Major League Baseball Team Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

2022 MLB Standings, Team and Player Statistics, Leaderboards, Award Winners, Trades, Minor Leagues, Fielding, Batting, Pitching, New Debuts

www.baseball-reference.com

They were second in the major in team batting average and fifth in runs scored. They did not have the reputation of a power-hitting team, ("keep the train moving") but they hit 171 home runs. But that's "middle of the pack" these days, (tied for 15th). Looking at their line-up:

2022 New York Mets Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com

New York Mets latest stats and more including batting stats, pitching stats, team fielding totals and more on Baseball-Reference.com

www.baseball-reference.com

Pete was great. Lindor had a strong year and a great second half. McNeil concentrated on making good contact rather than power hitting and won the betting title. Nimmo had a solid year, although a guy with a reputation for knowing the strike zone shouldn't strike out 116 times. Marte had a great second half, then got hurt. Escobar was terrible most of the year, then got white hot at the end. Canha had one hot streak in September but otherwise 'meh'. The catchers gave us nothing offensively. Davis/Smith didn't get it done at DH and the Vogelbach. Ruf experiment didn't work, either, mostly due to Ruff. Guillorme was above .300 much of the season but faded to .273. His value is a utility player who plays gold glove level defense at multiple positions.

Would it have been different if the Mets had made a flashy trade for Soto or Ohtani or someone else with big numbers? We don't know. We also don't know what they would have given up, although prospects like Baty, Vientos and Alvarez might have been involved. The Mets seem to have bet that they will have big careers for them and we'll be glad that we didn't send them elsewhere. I hope they are right.

 

[sutomcat]

This isn’t really accurate though…..the Dodgers had the foundation built for years - largely with home grown players they brought up and developed, and castoffs that became stars. They didn’t build the team by signing/trading for big money guys…that was more the final step once the foundation was already strong. For example, they didn’t overpay to keep Greinke, didn’t get Bryce Harper, etc.

There was a number of years though where the Dodgers were consistently in the mix but they weren’t ever going out and getting the major big money guys. Eventually it became the right move(Mookie) to do it.

If the Mets farm system is strong, it will be curious to see if they try a similar strategy.

I think the Mets have to start getting younger and making some of their top 100 prospects an important part of the team.

The key to beating the pseudo salary cap is continually adding young talented players to the roster who contribute far more than they are paid.

Alvarez is surely going to be part of the team next year. With the DH, the Mets can bounce him between catching and playing DH and work him into the full time catching job over time. Nido would be a great mentor and backup at catcher.

Baty appears to be ready to become a regular in MLB as well.

It looks like he is capable at 3B right now and he is probably athletic enough to play LF as well. Definitely has the arm for it. There are a couple of options there.

If you really want to go young, you put Baty at LF and Vientos at 3B. I don't think that is going to happen. Is Vientos good enough to play 3B in MLB? Seems like the Mets think this is not the case.

Mark is a hard guy to find a spot for. He could split time with Alvarez as the right handed DH and maybe play a little at 3B, 1B and LF. But you want a player that young to play every day.

Hoping Peterson and Megill can be full time members of the rotation next season. They have high end stuff and low end salaries. We need players like that on the roster.

Megill might not have the makeup to be a starting pitcher. Getting worried with his injuries problems as a relatively young guy. Both this guys might end up as relievers, especially Megill, especially if Diaz ends up going elsewhere.

 

[Orangezoo]

This isn’t really accurate though…..the Dodgers had the foundation built for years - largely with home grown players they brought up and developed, and castoffs that became stars. They didn’t build the team by signing/trading for big money guys…that was more the final step once the foundation was already strong. For example, they didn’t overpay to keep Greinke, didn’t get Bryce Harper, etc.

There was a number of years though where the Dodgers were consistently in the mix but they weren’t ever going out and getting the major big money guys. Eventually it became the right move(Mookie) to do it.

If the Mets farm system is strong, it will be curious to see if they try a similar strategy.

Makes sense and not following LA besides a cursory nugget here and there appreciate that background.

 

[OrangeDW]

Makes sense and not following LA besides a cursory nugget here and there appreciate that background.

I should back up a bit….their first team that made the playoffs of this “run” in 2013 had some high priced vets they traded for from Boston: Adrian Gonzales, Carl Crawford - they were largely underwhelming and overpriced in LA, but still solid, and helped with getting to the playoffs - though they were always one and done.

But when the Dodgers started winning in the playoffs, it was home grown guys like Seager, Bellinger, Pederson, Puig, and castoffs turned around like Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and Chris Taylor making up basically the entire lineup. Lost in the World Series twice with that group, then made the Mookie Betts trade to try to get over the top…..then last year the Trae Turner trade(in effect replacing Seager), and now Freddie Freeman. They had the prospects to trade for Betts and Turner, so really that farm system is still the foundation for everything.

Mets got similar money - if they get that farm system humming and make the right moves, they should be a perennial contender IMO.

 

[Orangezoo]

I should back up a bit….their first team that made the playoffs of this “run” in 2013 had some high priced vets they traded for from Boston: Adrian Gonzales, Carl Crawford - they were largely underwhelming and overpriced in LA, but still solid, and helped with getting to the playoffs - though they were always one and done.

But when the Dodgers started winning in the playoffs, it was home grown guys like Seager, Bellinger, Pederson, Puig, and castoffs turned around like Justin Turner, Max Muncy, and Chris Taylor making up basically the entire lineup. Lost in the World Series twice with that group, then made the Mookie Betts trade to try to get over the top…..then last year the Trae Turner trade(in effect replacing Seager), and now Freddie Freeman.

Appreciate someone who knows anything about them vs the horde of bandwagon fans. Mind you the Dodgers specific clean script look is like catnip to a Cuse fan..