2022 MLB Season

[MSOrange]

Harrumph...

Anthony Rendon was in there and he's on the IL out for the season. Injured players getting involved with brawls need to get some significant suspensions without pay.

 

[SWC75]

How not to write headlines:

Buffalo Bills fan Jesse Winker sparks bench clearing brawl between Mariners and Angels after HBP

The Mariners star flipped off the Angels crowd following the brawl.

www.syracuse.com

No, the brawl was not because Jesse Winkler is a Buffalo Bills fan.

 

[MSOrange]

 

[donniesyracuse]

Here are the combined WAR leaders from FanGraphs

 

[upperdeck]

I really have a hard time wrapping my head around WAR and what value they place on things.,

Judge is having a pretty good year.. This says if you replaced him with a random Min Leag outfielder it would mean a difference of 4 games to the yankees. I kinda doubt it,

Alonso having a good yr for the mets and it says they Would randomly replace him with Dom smith for 70 games it would only lead to 2 more losses.. I do think replacing a guy with 70 rbis and a guy having 15 might be an issue with the mets.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Judge is having a pretty good year.. This says if you replaced him with a random Min Leag outfielder it would mean a difference of 4 games to the yankees. I kinda doubt it,

Not necessarily a minor leaguer, but a freely available player. From FanGraphs: "WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?”

Why do you doubt it?

 

[SWC75]

Not necessarily a minor leaguer, but a freely available player. From FanGraphs: "WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?”

Why do you doubt it?

Would "a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player" have 70rbi (Alonso) or 28hr (Judge)?

 

[upperdeck]

Not necessarily a minor leaguer, but a freely available player. From FanGraphs: "WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?”

Why do you doubt it?

because its based on another set of random attributes made up by another random math person trying to show value above what you can see on the field or in real numbers.. Im just not a WAR guy.

its like looking at exit velo and determining how well a ball was hit. A well hit ball will have a high velo and well struck ball may not.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Would "a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player" have 70rbi (Alonso) or 28hr (Judge)?

Of course not, which is why they are worth more.

 

[donniesyracuse]

because its based on another set of random attributes made up by another random math person trying to show value above what you can see on the field or in real numbers.. Im just not a WAR guy.

Do you have specific problems with how WAR is calculated or you are just going to play old guy who speaks in generalities?

 

[upperdeck]

Do you have specific problems with how WAR is calculated or you are just going to play old guy who speaks in generalities?

probably both

but just take the first stat For Runners on 1st Base

1. For a single fielded by the RF or CF, the # of times the runner was held at second (and there was not a runner on second held at third).
2. For a single fielded by the RF or CF, the # of times the runner advanced to third.
3. For a single fielded by the RF or CF, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
4. For a single fielded by the LF, the # of times the runner was held at second (and there was not a runner on second held at third).
5. For a single fielded by the LF, the # of times the runner advanced to third.
6. For a single fielded by the LF, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
7. For a double fielded by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was held at third.
8. For a double fielded by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was scored.
9. For a double fielded by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
10. For a fly ball with less than two out caught by any outfielder with no runner on second, the # of times the runner held at first.
11. For a fly ball with less than two out caught by any outfielder with no runner on second, the # of times the runner tagged and reached second.
12. For a fly ball with less than two out caught by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
13. The # of advances on defensive indifference, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, and pickoff errors.
14. The # of outs recorded due to pickoffs (w/ no CS).

in this one item.. it calc how often you do it vs the league avg.. then you get a WAR.

It does not matter, how the ball was hit, how it was fielded, how the field was, your lead, your secondary leader, the at bat period of the game.. etc. Doesnt even matter who you are playing against.

if you play on a better team with more hits behind you you get more chances and they all add up..

So if you get on 10 times and the ball is hit to right 10 times and 10 times Mookie is out there and you never advance to 3rd.. Negative War.. Some other dude is running and Granderson is in right and gets 2 3rd 10 x.. Pos. war.

its a stat based thing thats actually a tweak of someone else's Stat based thing to try and decide who adds value.

Its Statomatic baseball to the extreme without using Dice.

There is a reason guys on better teams tend to have better stats, better team mates. Thus better WAR.

 

[SWC75]

Of course not, which is why they are worth more.

A lot more.

 

[donniesyracuse]

probably both

but just take the first stat For Runners on 1st Base

1. For a single fielded by the RF or CF, the # of times the runner was held at second (and there was not a runner on second held at third).
2. For a single fielded by the RF or CF, the # of times the runner advanced to third.
3. For a single fielded by the RF or CF, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
4. For a single fielded by the LF, the # of times the runner was held at second (and there was not a runner on second held at third).
5. For a single fielded by the LF, the # of times the runner advanced to third.
6. For a single fielded by the LF, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
7. For a double fielded by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was held at third.
8. For a double fielded by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was scored.
9. For a double fielded by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
10. For a fly ball with less than two out caught by any outfielder with no runner on second, the # of times the runner held at first.
11. For a fly ball with less than two out caught by any outfielder with no runner on second, the # of times the runner tagged and reached second.
12. For a fly ball with less than two out caught by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
13. The # of advances on defensive indifference, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, and pickoff errors.
14. The # of outs recorded due to pickoffs (w/ no CS).

in this one item.. it calc how often you do it vs the league avg.. then you get a WAR.

It does not matter, how the ball was hit, how it was fielded, how the field was, your lead, your secondary leader, the at bat period of the game.. etc. Doesnt even matter who you are playing against.

if you play on a better team with more hits behind you you get more chances and they all add up..

So if you get on 10 times and the ball is hit to right 10 times and 10 times Mookie is out there and you never advance to 3rd.. Negative War.. Some other dude is running and Granderson is in right and gets 2 3rd 10 x.. Pos. war.

its a stat based thing thats actually a tweak of someone else's Stat based thing to try and decide who adds value.

Its Statomatic baseball to the extreme without using Dice.

There is a reason guys on better teams tend to have better stats, better team mates. Thus better WAR.

I don’t know what you’re quoting. It’s not from FanGraphs. Regardless, like the “real numbers” you talk about, advanced stats mean nothing in small samples and tell a story over larger samples.

 

[donniesyracuse]

A lot more.

What’s your beef? Four wins in 70 games is a lot. It’s a team game.

 

[SWC75]

probably both

but just take the first stat For Runners on 1st Base

1. For a single fielded by the RF or CF, the # of times the runner was held at second (and there was not a runner on second held at third).
2. For a single fielded by the RF or CF, the # of times the runner advanced to third.
3. For a single fielded by the RF or CF, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
4. For a single fielded by the LF, the # of times the runner was held at second (and there was not a runner on second held at third).
5. For a single fielded by the LF, the # of times the runner advanced to third.
6. For a single fielded by the LF, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
7. For a double fielded by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was held at third.
8. For a double fielded by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was scored.
9. For a double fielded by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
10. For a fly ball with less than two out caught by any outfielder with no runner on second, the # of times the runner held at first.
11. For a fly ball with less than two out caught by any outfielder with no runner on second, the # of times the runner tagged and reached second.
12. For a fly ball with less than two out caught by any outfielder, the # of times the runner was out on the bases.
13. The # of advances on defensive indifference, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, and pickoff errors.
14. The # of outs recorded due to pickoffs (w/ no CS).

in this one item.. it calc how often you do it vs the league avg.. then you get a WAR.

It does not matter, how the ball was hit, how it was fielded, how the field was, your lead, your secondary leader, the at bat period of the game.. etc. Doesnt even matter who you are playing against.

if you play on a better team with more hits behind you you get more chances and they all add up..

So if you get on 10 times and the ball is hit to right 10 times and 10 times Mookie is out there and you never advance to 3rd.. Negative War.. Some other dude is running and Granderson is in right and gets 2 3rd 10 x.. Pos. war.

its a stat based thing thats actually a tweak of someone else's Stat based thing to try and decide who adds value.

Its Statomatic baseball to the extreme without using Dice.

There is a reason guys on better teams tend to have better stats, better team mates. Thus better WAR.

I remember when Bill James' book on Win Shares came out, I examined it in the bookstore and saw that the chapter on how to compute it went 86 pages. I put it back on the self. We're not trying to land a guy on the Moon. We're trying to break down what happened in a baseball game.

 

[SWC75]

What’s your beef? Four wins in 70 games is a lot. It’s a team game.

Back to the question: Do you really think the Yankees would have only 4 fewer wins without Judge?

 

[donniesyracuse]

Back to the question: Do you really think the Yankees would have only 4 fewer wins without Judge?

It would depend on who replaced him.

Baseball is pretty random. You could replay the season again with Judge and end up with ten more or ten fewer wins.

WAR is just an estimate.

 

[MSOrange]

 

[MSOrange]

Twins pitching coach Wes Johnson leaving team midseason for same role at LSU, reportedly for huge raise

Johnson will end his tenure with the Twins after a series vs. Cleveland this week

www.cbssports.com

 

[upperdeck]

and there is the issue with War.. its either way too high or its way too low.. Im not sure which makes more sense.

the worst team, no matter how bad is gonna win 50-60 games.. the 62 mets won 40, 50 is pretty much the baseline right now.. so if you remove someone like judge from the yankees and they lose alot the most wins they lose is around 50..

but the numbers are adjusted for what happens over a 162 game season. You could put their AAA team out there and probably still win 40.

the Math guy in my head wonders then if War is really only a function of the games you win above that 50-60 number. if WAR is Wins above replacement and your team doesnt win is it really WAR?

 

[donniesyracuse]

and there is the issue with War.. its either way too high or its way too low.. Im not sure which makes more sense.

the worst team, no matter how bad is gonna win 50-60 games.. the 62 mets won 40, 50 is pretty much the baseline right now.. so if you remove someone like judge from the yankees and they lose alot the most wins they lose is around 50..

but the numbers are adjusted for what happens over a 162 game season. You could put their AAA team out there and probably still win 40.

the Math guy in my head wonders then if War is really only a function of the games you win above that 50-60 number. if WAR is Wins above replacement and your team doesnt win is it really WAR?

The real function of WAR is to have a number on which to compare players. The actual win number is just an estimate. If you were to play-out a thousand 70 game seasons with Aaron Judge and a thousand with Whit Merrifield, the median difference would be four games, but the range would be large.

 

[donniesyracuse]

and there is the issue with War.. its either way too high or its way too low.. Im not sure which makes more sense.

the worst team, no matter how bad is gonna win 50-60 games.. the 62 mets won 40, 50 is pretty much the baseline right now.. so if you remove someone like judge from the yankees and they lose alot the most wins they lose is around 50..

but the numbers are adjusted for what happens over a 162 game season. You could put their AAA team out there and probably still win 40.

the Math guy in my head wonders then if War is really only a function of the games you win above that 50-60 number. if WAR is Wins above replacement and your team doesnt win is it really WAR?

According to FanGraphs, a team of replacement-level players would have a winning percentage of .294 (i.e., roughly 48 wins).

 

[upperdeck]

The real function of WAR is to have a number on which to compare players. The actual win number is just an estimate. If you were to play-out a thousand 70 game seasons with Aaron Judge and a thousand with Whit Merrifield, the median difference would be four games, but the range would be large.

I get that but it also ignores factors that also have cause an effect.. it implies each players actions are their own.. Does lindor get better pitches because Pete is behind him. Probably, so Lindor gets more chances at better pitches and the result more RBIs. Pete on the other hand still gets the top 5 least amount of hitteable pitches and thus less chances to succeed..

on the flip side WAR rewards things like taking extra bases.. It doesnt really care who is on. So if you have a guy on first and hit a gapper that you can turn into a double but you have Cano on first it turns into a single. On the flip side you hit the same ball and someone fast is on first they dont bother to try to throw to first so less chances for an extra base.. but of you have a medium speed guy they throw to 3rd you get to 2nd. It all adds up and is built by a function of teammates.

Its a measurement built to try and guess if a play was better than avg or not and add all of them up. But every play is not the same even if every part of the play is done the same. You dont go to 2nd in the 9th if the lead run is ahead of you.. you dont go to 3rd for the 2nd out of an inning.. Who is pitching matters on what chances you take.

If WAR was a true indicator then we wouldnt need scouts.. Intangibles matter

 

[donniesyracuse]

I get that but it also ignores factors that also have cause an effect.. it implies each players actions are their own.. Does lindor get better pitches because Pete is behind him. Probably, so Lindor gets more chances at better pitches and the result more RBIs. Pete on the other hand still gets the top 5 least amount of hitteable pitches and thus less chances to succeed..

on the flip side WAR rewards things like taking extra bases.. It doesnt really care who is on. So if you have a guy on first and hit a gapper that you can turn into a double but you have Cano on first it turns into a single. On the flip side you hit the same ball and someone fast is on first they dont bother to try to throw to first so less chances for an extra base.. but of you have a medium speed guy they throw to 3rd you get to 2nd. It all adds up and is built by a function of teammates.

Its a measurement built to try and guess if a play was better than avg or not and add all of them up. But every play is not the same even if every part of the play is done the same. You dont go to 2nd in the 9th if the lead run is ahead of you.. you dont go to 3rd for the 2nd out of an inning.. Who is pitching matters on what chances you take.

If WAR was a true indicator then we wouldnt need scouts.. Intangibles matter

Nobody advocates for WAR as the be-all end-all measurement. I post it because I think it's interesting, also acknowledging that WAR after 70 games does not have a lot of power, especially because of the volatility of defensive metrics.

All of the flaws you attribute to WAR are true of all the "real numbers" as well. At least advanced metrics attempt to control for much of the randomness/chance noise.

You're also pointing to a lot of individual plays, which have very little impact on a player's WAR over the course of the season. The strength of advanced metrics comes in large sample sizes.

 

[donniesyracuse]

If WAR was a true indicator then we wouldnt need scouts.. Intangibles matter

Straw-man!