Figure it's helpful to have one thread for all bracketology discussion.
Chris takes a first look.
With UVa beating ND 15-10 that bracketology has gone down the toilet.Maryland #6 and Virginia #7? Much as I'd love to have us play Cornell ...
unfortunately the orange are not anywhere near the bubble with a win over princeton. at rpi 26 with no top 20 wins, they have a lot more work to do. princeton cannot be counted on to be a quality win. they are 24 in rpi right now and would drop if they lose to syracuse. orange have to win at least 3 of the next 4. that'd get them a top 20 (maybe 10) win over UNC and a top 5 over either virginia or duke. i don't know what the rpi would be in that scenario but it'd be much better than 26 and give them a couple of nice wins to hang their hats on. as of today they are well well outside the discussionSyracuse's worst loss is UNC but UNC is considered to be Denver's and Ohio States best win. ?
If Syracuse beats Princeton they are squarely on the bubble. If they beat Princeton and 1 more of Duke, UVA, or UNC I think they're in. Might need two upsets but I have to they're better than Pedo State and Penn at 8-7
maybe, maybe not. princeton has picked it up and look like the second best ivy right now.unfortunately the orange are not anywhere near the bubble with a win over princeton. at rpi 26 with no top 20 wins, they have a lot more work to do. princeton cannot be counted on to be a quality win. they are 24 in rpi right now and would drop if they lose to syracuse. orange have to win at least 3 of the next 4. that'd get them a top 20 (maybe 10) win over UNC and a top 5 over either virginia or duke. i don't know what the rpi would be in that scenario but it'd be much better than 26 and give them a couple of nice wins to hang their hats on. as of today they are well well outside the discussion
maybe, maybe not. princeton has picked it up and look like the second best ivy right now.
acc has 6 ooc losses and every other conference is in at least the mid-teens, and there aren't a lot of l's left for acc teams. that's a bigger skew than even the ivy last year, and they barely played any acc and b1g schools. people are gonna be surprised methinks at how rpi runs after the season is over. and for sos, the games after top 10 rpi games will be dropped. right now for cuse, only one of those is.
unfortunately the orange are not anywhere near the bubble with a win over princeton. at rpi 26 with no top 20 wins, they have a lot more work to do. princeton cannot be counted on to be a quality win. they are 24 in rpi right now and would drop if they lose to syracuse. orange have to win at least 3 of the next 4. that'd get them a top 20 (maybe 10) win over UNC and a top 5 over either virginia or duke. i don't know what the rpi would be in that scenario but it'd be much better than 26 and give them a couple of nice wins to hang their hats on. as of today they are well well outside the discussion
i agree they look like #2 in the ivy right now but the math isn't in their favor. princeton is at 24 right now and if they lose to cuse they'll be 4-5 and drop at least a few spots in the rpi, no? then they have to play dartmouth (25) and harvard (32) before cornell. winning those doesn't do much for them. the chance that princeton can lose to syracuse and still end up in the top 20 rpi seem less than 50-50 to me but who knows i'm no mathematician. the comment was "if syracuse beats princeton they are squarely on the bubble" and that just doesn't check out even if princeton ends up a top 20 win
unfortunately the orange are not anywhere near the bubble with a win over princeton. at rpi 26 with no top 20 wins, they have a lot more work to do. princeton cannot be counted on to be a quality win. they are 24 in rpi right now and would drop if they lose to syracuse. orange have to win at least 3 of the next 4. that'd get them a top 20 (maybe 10) win over UNC and a top 5 over either virginia or duke. i don't know what the rpi would be in that scenario but it'd be much better than 26 and give them a couple of nice wins to hang their hats on. as of today they are well well outside the discussion
you also said they have to win 3 of 4. making assessments on rpi, etc. now is fruitless, and bubble guesses after last year will be just that. p'ton's 50% rpi component from their ivies played already is worse than the 3 they will play, the latter have better records. not counting an ivy tournament game or 2.i agree they look like #2 in the ivy right now but the math isn't in their favor. princeton is at 24 right now and if they lose to cuse they'll be 4-5 and drop at least a few spots in the rpi, no? then they have to play dartmouth (25) and harvard (32) before cornell. winning those doesn't do much for them. the chance that princeton can lose to syracuse and still end up in the top 20 rpi seem less than 50-50 to me but who knows i'm no mathematician. the comment was "if syracuse beats princeton they are squarely on the bubble" and that just doesn't check out even if princeton ends up a top 20 win
The ACC has teams ranked #1, 2 and 3. Syracuse gets a shot at 2 of them, plus UNC at 9 and Princeton.
Syracuse's 5 losses, unfortunately, are to #1, #2, #5, #6 and #9. Has anyone else played 5 top 10 teams? (and Cuse still has a winning record.)
If CUSE beats #15 Princeton and #9 UNC it's not unreasonable at all to see them get in.
This early bracket prediction makes some big guess. Like Hopkins to win the Big10. They could frankly lose their final 3 games. Penn State marked safe at 6-3 could lose their final 3 and finish 6-6. Lots of jockeying to be done.
I don't know how the metrics work, have never looked into it, but SOS must be based the inflated top 20 rankings this season. The top 20 poll this year is frankly a bit of a joke. You have teams ranked that are 4-4 (3), 5-4 (1), 5-5 (1)
Lots is going to change.
I don't think a mid major at large takes a bid this year.
even in the event of chaos, cuse needs more than the princeton win.
you won't like hearing this but cuse's resume today is about the same as dartmouth's. similar RPIs, both teams are 6-0 against teams outside the top 20 (meaning no "bad losses") but also don't have any quality wins.
fieldystick's last two teams in right now are penn and unc. both have top 10 RPIs and a top 10 win (unc over hopkins, penn over georgetown). that's the kind of resume cuse would be up against on the bubble and they are already behind where they need to be
This early bracket prediction makes some big guess. Like Hopkins to win the Big10. They could frankly lose their final 3 games. Penn State marked safe at 6-3 could lose their final 3 and finish 6-6.
My one criticism of your presentation is that you pick conference winners, even though these will be decided by tournaments and are not sure things, and don't evaluate these team's at-large status - for Cornell, Hopkins, Georgetown, and Army.
i'm just glad they broadcast games, and no, they're not mathemeticians. any 2 wins and they're in the discussion. pick off uva and duke and they're bubble in.Mid-game is not the time to worry about this for Cuse fans, but I want it on the record here:
I strongly disagree with the notion that the Princeton announcers have presented that Syracuse needs to win out to have a *possibility* at an at-large.
DIVISION I SELECTION CRITERIA:
The committee will utilize the following criteria to select and seed teams:
• Strength of schedule index.
• Results of the RPI.
- Record against ranked teams 1-5; 6-10; 11-15; 16-20; 21+
- Average RPI win (average RPI of all wins)
- Average RPI loss (average RPI of all losses)
• Head-to-head competition:
- Results versus common opponents.
- Significant wins and losses (wins against teams ranked higher in the RPI and losses against teams ranked lower in the RPI).
- Locations of contests.
• Input from the regional advisory committee (comprised of lacrosse coaches from all AQ conferences).
The last item is interesting. ACC coaches not included? Is that how Harvard gets in over ND last year?
Different way of looking at things. Kind of interesting that so many Ivy League teams are included in the work to do category. Surprised that so many are in discussion at this point. Obviously SU has work to do. I agree with those who say they need to win two of their last three. If they do that I think they have a good shot. Easier said than done of course.