2024 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament Projections | Page 3 | Syracusefan.com

2024 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament Projections

Best path to the 7 seed tomorrow is Ga Tech pulling off an early win against FSU at noon at their place and then we just take care of business at Louisville. nc state is gonna get smacked the last 3 games of season so shouldn't have to worry about them.
 
Best path to the 7 seed tomorrow is Ga Tech pulling off an early win against FSU at noon at their place and then we just take care of business at Louisville. nc state is gonna get smacked the last 3 games of season so shouldn't have to worry about them.

I might be wrong but 1 more win gets us a 7 seed (at least) regardless of any other outcomes. At least with the outcomes I ran through the seed predictor (and I ran a lot). But I might have missed something
 
I might be wrong but 1 more win gets us a 7 seed (at least) regardless of any other outcomes. At least with the outcomes I ran through the seed predictor (and I ran a lot). But I might have missed something
I thought so too...but i was wrong. We can still get 8 seed if we lose to clemson
 

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Best path to the 7 seed tomorrow is Ga Tech pulling off an early win against FSU at noon at their place and then we just take care of business at Louisville. nc state is gonna get smacked the last 3 games of season so shouldn't have to worry about them.
Let’s hope they keep it close or have an upset in there. Need them to get in the top 75 of the net
 
I thought so too...but i was wrong. We can still get 8 seed if we lose to clemson
giving myself a migraine trying to run all the scenarios on that thing - the key might end up being that we hold tie-breaker over both Pitt and NC st, but FSU holds it over us - so want to root against FSU the rest of the way
 
Updated ACC:

1 North Carolina 14-3
2 Duke 13-4
3 Virginia 12-6
4 Clemson 10-7 (1-1 v. UNC)
5 Wake Forest 10-7 (0-1)
6 Syracuse 10-8
7 Pitt 9-8 (1-0; 1-1 v Duke)
8 FSU 9-8 (1-0; 0-1)
9 N.C. State 9-8 (0-2)
10 VT 7-10
11 BC 6-11 (HTH)
12 ND 6-11
13 Miami 6-12
14 GT 5-12
15 UL 3-14
So as it stands, we'd get BC/GT first. If it's BC, a small win is basically neutral in NET, and it would be a Q2 game. If it's GT, we probably need to win by 6 to remain neutral in NET. Assuming we win, we'd get the 3-seed, currently Virginia. Currently a Q1 game, could drop farther though. Presumably next would be Duke.
 
I might be wrong but 1 more win gets us a 7 seed (at least) regardless of any other outcomes. At least with the outcomes I ran through the seed predictor (and I ran a lot). But I might have missed something
Correct
 
Nope-
In all likelihood one more win gets us the 7 seed, but there are scenarios where we don't
I guess there is 1 singular scenario that has NC State wining out, I didn’t realize they had another game. But outside of that one singular scenario Syracuse is guaranteed a 7 seed or better.
 
I thought so too...but i was wrong. We can still get 8 seed if we lose to clemson
Yea I just checked the same. Unlikely but possible. We are the last game Saturday as well. I hope it's bedlam early in the day so a win we can start looking at our path as a 7 seed. Would suck to have to play FSU in the 8/9, gets us nothing in the net and also we match up pretty terrible with their 12 man hackathon rotation against our 6...
 
I guess there is 1 singular scenario that has NC State wining out, I didn’t realize they had another game. But outside of that one singular scenario Syracuse is guaranteed a 7 seed or better.
Nope-
If Pitt wins out (entirely possible) and FSU goes 2-1 (also entirely possible) we would be the 8 playing NC st the 9
 
SCHOOLACCPCT.
North Carolina15-3.833
Duke14-4.778
Virginia12-7.632
Syracuse11-8.579
Clemson10-8.556
Pitt10-8.556
Wake Forest10-8.556
NC State9-9.500
Florida State9-9.500
Virginia Tech8-10.444
Notre Dame7-11.389
Boston College6-12.333
Miami6-12.333
Georgia Tech6-12.333
Louisville3-15.167
 
Patrick Stevens @D1scourse

ACC, 1 week to go:

1 North Carolina 15-3
2 Duke 14-4
3 Virginia 12-7
4 Syracuse 11-8
5 Clemson 10-8 (2-0 minigroup)
6 Wake Forest 10-8 (1-1)
7 Pitt 10-8 (1-3)
8 FSU 9-9 (HTH)
9 N.C. State 9-9
10 VT 8-10
11 ND 7-11
12 BC 6-12 (2-0)
13 GT 6-12 (1-1)
14 Miami 6-12 (0-2)
15 UL 3-15

9:31 AM · Mar 3, 2024
 
Patrick Stevens @D1scourse

ACC, 1 week to go:

1 North Carolina 15-3
2 Duke 14-4
3 Virginia 12-7
4 Syracuse 11-8
5 Clemson 10-8 (2-0 minigroup)
6 Wake Forest 10-8 (1-1)
7 Pitt 10-8 (1-3)
8 FSU 9-9 (HTH)
9 N.C. State 9-9
10 VT 8-10
11 ND 7-11
12 BC 6-12 (2-0)
13 GT 6-12 (1-1)
14 Miami 6-12 (0-2)
15 UL 3-15

9:31 AM · Mar 3, 2024
That sure does look pretty nice.

Screenshot 2024-03-04 075626.jpg
 
the SRS and point spread (own vs. opp scoring) are the reason behind our NET ranking.
Yup, but it is getting absolutely crushed by 5 teams is what's causing it, not the algorithm.

Since 2010-11, Syracuse has had 38 games where they lost by 16+ points. They've had 7 of them this season (18%) including the worst overall (@ UNC) and another in the top 5 (@ Wake).

By Season (Ending Year):
2011 - 1
2012 - 0
2013 - 2
2014 - 1
2015 - 1
2016 - 1
2017 - 5
2018 - 3
2019 - 3
2020 - 2
2021 - 4
2022 - 3
2023 - 5
2024 - 7

People can complain that getting blown out shouldn't matter, but when its looked at holistically, it's fairly consistent with our overall results and team strength from the last decade plus. Interesting that the next two seasons were the 2017 team that was a bubble team and last season which (combined with the overall trend) was enough to get the head coach fired retired. 2023-24 has been a Jekyll & Hyde team that may have finally found its footing after catching some heavy body blows and KOs early on. In January over the span of 4 weeks they took 4 losses by an average of 25 points, including a pretty bad FSU team that's barely .500 - so let's not pretend that this team has been humming along all season.

I can't sort by conference at BBRef, but for comparison sake in the same time frame: Clemson has had 4, FSU has had 6, Miami has had 10, Duke has had 13 (Miami and UNC responsible for 6 of them), UNC has had 22, GTech has had 24, UVA has had 26 (which is surprising to me considering the rockfights Bennett likes), Louisville also has 38 (and 8 this season).
 
Yup, but it is getting absolutely crushed by 5 teams is what's causing it, not the algorithm.

Since 2010-11, Syracuse has had 38 games where they lost by 16+ points. They've had 7 of them this season (18%) including the worst overall (@ UNC) and another in the top 5 (@ Wake).

By Season (Ending Year):
2011 - 1
2012 - 0
2013 - 2
2014 - 1
2015 - 1
2016 - 1
2017 - 5
2018 - 3
2019 - 3
2020 - 2
2021 - 4
2022 - 3
2023 - 5
2024 - 7

People can complain that getting blown out shouldn't matter, but when its looked at holistically, it's fairly consistent with our overall results and team strength from the last decade plus. Interesting that the next two seasons were the 2017 team that was a bubble team and last season which (combined with the overall trend) was enough to get the head coach fired retired. 2023-24 has been a Jekyll & Hyde team that may have finally found its footing after catching some heavy body blows and KOs early on. In January over the span of 4 weeks they took 4 losses by an average of 25 points, including a pretty bad FSU team that's barely .500 - so let's not pretend that this team has been humming along all season.

I can't sort by conference at BBRef, but for comparison sake in the same time frame: Clemson has had 4, FSU has had 6, Miami has had 10, Duke has had 13 (Miami and UNC responsible for 6 of them), UNC has had 22, GTech has had 24, UVA has had 26 (which is surprising to me considering the rockfights Bennett likes), Louisville also has 38 (and 8 this season).
we're in violent agreement.
 
Patrick Stevens @D1scourse

Updated ACC ...

1 North Carolina 15-3
2 Duke 15-4
3 Virginia 12-7
4 Syracuse 11-8
5 Clemson 10-8 (2-0 minigroup)
6 Wake Forest 10-8 (1-1)
7 Pitt 10-8 (1-3)
8 FSU 9-9
9 N.C. State 9-10
10 VT 8-10
11 Notre Dame 7-11
12 BC 6-12 (2-0)
13 GT 6-12 (1-1)
14 Miami 6-12 (0-2)
15 UL 3-15

9:04 PM · Mar 4, 2024
 
After tonight's loss need some help to stay out of 8/9 hell.
 
Feels like we’re headed for a 6th seed, which isn’t the worst place to be because it likely gives us our best shot at winning two games.
 

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