If Clemson wins at Wake Forest AND Pitt loses to N.C. State (making Clemson either T-3rd with Virginia or solo fourth), then Duke gets the No. 1 seed. Blue Devils beat Clemson, Carolina split with Clemson.Both teams were 1-0 vs. Virginia, so the Hoos aren't an issue.
If Pitt wins AND Clemson loses (making Pitt either T-3rd with Virginia or solo fourth), then North Carolina gets the No. 1 seed.Carolina beat Pitt, while Duke split with Pitt. Both teams being 1-0 against Virginia means the Hoos don't change the equation.
If both Pitt and Clemson win, Duke will be the No. 1 seed.Both Duke and UNC were a combined 2-1 against Pitt and Clemson. Both a combined 3-1 against Pitt, Clemson and Virginia (in case Virginia loses).That leave Syracuse in solo sixth. Duke is 1-0 vs. Cuse, UNC is 1-1.
The trickiest possibility is both Clemson and Pitt losing, creating a four-way tie for fourth at 11-9 w/Cuse and Wake.Both UNC and Duke were 4-2 vs. that groupUNC: 1-1 v. Cuse, 1-0 v. WF, 1-0 v. Pitt, 1-1 v. ClemsonDuke: 1-0 v. Cuse, 1-1 v. WF, 1-1 v. Pitt, 1-0 v. Clemson
That scenario means there's a good chance that Duke going 1-1 against Georgia Tech and North Carolina being 0-1 against the Yellow Jackets decides the No. 1 seed. But if only it were that simple!
If Georgia Tech ends up in a tie with Miami (who was 0-1 vs. Duke and 0-2 vs. North Carolina) and NOT Notre Dame (who lost to Duke twice and Carolina once), then the winning percentages against common opponents will be the same all the way through the standings.
Example: UNC 2-1 (0-1 vs. GT, 2-0 vs. Miami) Duke 2-1 (1-1 vs. GT, 1-0 vs. Miami) OR UNC 3-1 (0-1 vs. GT, 2-0 vs. Miami, 1-0 vs. BC) Duke 3-1 (1-1 vs. GT, 1-0 vs. Miami, 1-0 vs. BC)
If my math is right (and heck, it might not be, I'm pretty tired), it could be coinflip territory with the following set of results:Miami beats BCMiami loses to FSUNotre Dame beats VTDuke beats UNCClemson loses to WakePitt loses to N.C. StateGeorgia Tech loses to Virginia
That would result in ...
Duke/UNC 16-3
Virginia 13-7
Clem/Pitt/WF/Cuse 11-9
FSU/NCSU 10-10
VT 9-11
ND 8-12
Miami/GT 7-13
BC 6-14 OR 7-13
UL 4-16 OR 3-17