2024 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament Projections

[OrlandoCuse]

I feel like our at large chances went out the window with this game. It’s automatic bid or bust.

Yup, another 15 point blowout loss pretty much killed any at large chances. Will probably be 90+ in the NET. Basically DOA

Oh well, hope they get inspired for the NIT. But I’m not confident they will.

 

[orange7]

No one cares about the NIT especially a top 10 all time wins program like ours. We should NEVER be in the NIT. Ever.

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

No one cares about the NIT especially a top 10 all time wins program like ours. We should NEVER be in the NIT. Ever.

Welp. We're going. And it will be our best season in 3 years...

 

[jncuse]

No one cares about the NIT especially a top 10 all time wins program like ours. We should NEVER be in the NIT. Ever.

Problem is our program hasn't been even close to NIT level for 2 years in a row. Its hard to take a big leap from two irrelevant seasons to something really meaningful. You tend to have show progress to get back to the level.

The NIT is progress for the program. I'll take it.

 

[wiseman3]

I have zero interest in watching the NIT...no thanks. I'm not putting myself through that for a losers tournament, especially when half the team may not even be here next year

 

[jncuse]

Feels like we’re headed for a 6th seed, which isn’t the worst place to be because it likely gives us our best shot at winning two games.

Does winning 2 games from the 6th seed really accomplish much though? Beating Notre Dame/BC/GTech winner then beating Clemson or Virginia on a neutral court leaves us well short.

This might be disputed here, but I think the best scenario is 7th seed. (Which I think there are decent scenarios for as well) 7th seed, is the most direct path to Duke and UNC as soon as possible. If we want to get in the tournament as an at-large we need a marquee win to make up for not winning on the road at Clemson. Duke and UNC are those games. Now the chances of winning the game are very low, but it is our best path.

Also better chance at getting Q2 in game 1.

But whatever scenarios we discuss the odds are low.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Does winning 2 games from the 6th seed really accomplish much though? Beating Notre Dame/BC winner then beating Clemson or Virginia on a neutral court leaves us well short.

This might be disputed here, but I think the best scenario is 7th seed. (Which I think there are decent scenarios for as well) 7th seed, is the most direct path to Duke and UNC as soon as possible. If we want to get in the tournament as an at-large we need a marquee win to make up for not winning on the road at Clemson. Duke and UNC are those games. Now the chances of winning the game are very low, but it is our best path

If we win two we will have a chance to face Duke or UNC in the semifinals. Probably need to win 3 to be considered for an at large. Any way you cut it we have to beat UNC or Duke to get in (along with several other things). We’re basically a super long shot to make it. Needed to find a way to win tonight and they laid an egg.

 

[jncuse]

If we win two we will have a chance to face Duke or UNC in the semifinals. Probably need to win 3 to be considered for an at large. Any way you cut it we have to beat UNC or Duke to get in (along with several other things). We’re basically a super long shot to make it. Needed to find a way to win tonight and they laid an egg.

Yeah, slicing and dicing scenarios on a very low odd situation is probably not worth much time at this point. Will go one day/win at a time in the ACC, and see as it goes,

 

[tbonezone]

big deal. you want to win the ACCT you have to beat Duke or UNC any given season. ok let's do it this year.

 

[phreddie]

big deal. you want to win the ACCT you have to beat Duke  and UNC this year.

FIFY

 

[adk(roc)CUSE]

So if im right if Clemson beats Wake this weekend (who just lost to Ga Tech at home) we are the 6 seed in the ACCT. If Wake wins we are the 7 seed. Here is what either bracket would likely look like:

 

[Cuse House]

So if im right if Clemson beats Wake this weekend (who just lost to Ga Tech at home) we are the 6 seed in the ACCT. If Wake wins we are the 7 seed. Here is what either bracket would likely look like:

View attachment 238479

View attachment 238480

Bc/GT and then Virginia is a much better path than NC State and UNC. I’ll be rooting for Clemson against Wake.

 

[rocfan44]

So if im right if Clemson beats Wake this weekend (who just lost to Ga Tech at home) we are the 6 seed in the ACCT. If Wake wins we are the 7 seed. Here is what either bracket would likely look like:

View attachment 238479

View attachment 238480

Don’t forget we could still get the 5 seed, if Clemson and NC State both win. Personally, I don’t want the 5 seed. Would prefer not to have to play Clemson again. Better chance against UVA.

 

[pokercuse08]

No one cares about the NIT especially a top 10 all time wins program like ours. We should NEVER be in the NIT. Ever.

This group could use the additional playing time together, and I'm hoping if that's the way it goes, Red tries a different rotation to get guys some PT for next year

1 - Q
2 - Judah
3 - Bell
4 - Maliq
5 - Carey

JJ, Cuffe, JT all get meaningful minutes. Would be fine starting JJ or JT over Bell. The main thing is getting Carey minutes, seeing Maliq at the 4, and trying to get Bell some favorable matchups to just shoot over people (though that went very poorly tonight). Also to get Judah away from the point.

Don’t forget we could still get the 5 seed, if Clemson and NC State both win. Personally, I don’t want the 5 seed. Would prefer not to have to play Clemson again. Better chance against UVA.

Yeah, I want no parts of Clemson. The path as the 6 is ideal at this point. Probably BC (hopefully Q2), UVA (easiest Q1 we could ask for), presumably UNC - and beating them twice would be a hell of a statement.

 

[blust2i3d4]

I don't think Wake can beat Clemson. We should be able to get No. 6. It is a good seeding because No.3 Virginia is manageable.

 

[gilardino]

Who gets the 5,6,7? All three would be 11-9. I order to avoid the 7 seed

 

[Orangefan1]

I don't think Wake can beat Clemson. We should be able to get No. 6. It is a good seeding because No.3 Virginia is manageable.

We have gotten blasted against them

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Patrick Stevens @D1scourse

Updated ACC:

1 North Carolina 16-3
2 Duke 15-4
3 Virginia 12-7
4 Clemson 11-8 (HTH)
5 Pitt 11-8
6 Cuse 11-9
7 Wake Forest 10-9
8 VT 9-10 (2-1 minigroup; 1-1 v. UVa)
9 FSU 9-10 (2-1; 0-1)
10 NC State 9-10 (0-2)
11 ND 7-12 (HTH)
12 GT 7-12
13 BC 6-12 (HTH)
14 Miami 6-12
15 UL 3-16

11:22 PM · Mar 5, 2024
·

 

[OrangeXtreme]

If Clemson wins at Wake Forest AND Pitt loses to N.C. State (making Clemson either T-3rd with Virginia or solo fourth), then Duke gets the No. 1 seed. Blue Devils beat Clemson, Carolina split with Clemson.Both teams were 1-0 vs. Virginia, so the Hoos aren't an issue.

If Pitt wins AND Clemson loses (making Pitt either T-3rd with Virginia or solo fourth), then North Carolina gets the No. 1 seed.Carolina beat Pitt, while Duke split with Pitt. Both teams being 1-0 against Virginia means the Hoos don't change the equation.

If both Pitt and Clemson win, Duke will be the No. 1 seed.Both Duke and UNC were a combined 2-1 against Pitt and Clemson. Both a combined 3-1 against Pitt, Clemson and Virginia (in case Virginia loses).That leave Syracuse in solo sixth. Duke is 1-0 vs. Cuse, UNC is 1-1.

The trickiest possibility is both Clemson and Pitt losing, creating a four-way tie for fourth at 11-9 w/Cuse and Wake.Both UNC and Duke were 4-2 vs. that groupUNC: 1-1 v. Cuse, 1-0 v. WF, 1-0 v. Pitt, 1-1 v. ClemsonDuke: 1-0 v. Cuse, 1-1 v. WF, 1-1 v. Pitt, 1-0 v. Clemson

That scenario means there's a good chance that Duke going 1-1 against Georgia Tech and North Carolina being 0-1 against the Yellow Jackets decides the No. 1 seed. But if only it were that simple!

If Georgia Tech ends up in a tie with Miami (who was 0-1 vs. Duke and 0-2 vs. North Carolina) and NOT Notre Dame (who lost to Duke twice and Carolina once), then the winning percentages against common opponents will be the same all the way through the standings.

Example: UNC 2-1 (0-1 vs. GT, 2-0 vs. Miami) Duke 2-1 (1-1 vs. GT, 1-0 vs. Miami) OR UNC 3-1 (0-1 vs. GT, 2-0 vs. Miami, 1-0 vs. BC) Duke 3-1 (1-1 vs. GT, 1-0 vs. Miami, 1-0 vs. BC)

If my math is right (and heck, it might not be, I'm pretty tired), it could be coinflip territory with the following set of results:Miami beats BCMiami loses to FSUNotre Dame beats VTDuke beats UNCClemson loses to WakePitt loses to N.C. StateGeorgia Tech loses to Virginia

That would result in ...

Duke/UNC 16-3
Virginia 13-7
Clem/Pitt/WF/Cuse 11-9
FSU/NCSU 10-10
VT 9-11
ND 8-12
Miami/GT 7-13
BC 6-14 OR 7-13
UL 4-16 OR 3-17

 

[Orangefan1]

Good news is we won’t be an 8/9 correct?

 

[Orangefan1]

I think if we win 3 we are in and wouldn’t have to win the whole thing that would be potentiallly three quad 1 wins on a neutral floor correct?

 

[mark79]

If Clemson wins at Wake Forest AND Pitt loses to N.C. State (making Clemson either T-3rd with Virginia or solo fourth), then Duke gets the No. 1 seed. Blue Devils beat Clemson, Carolina split with Clemson.Both teams were 1-0 vs. Virginia, so the Hoos aren't an issue.

If Pitt wins AND Clemson loses (making Pitt either T-3rd with Virginia or solo fourth), then North Carolina gets the No. 1 seed.Carolina beat Pitt, while Duke split with Pitt. Both teams being 1-0 against Virginia means the Hoos don't change the equation.

If both Pitt and Clemson win, Duke will be the No. 1 seed.Both Duke and UNC were a combined 2-1 against Pitt and Clemson. Both a combined 3-1 against Pitt, Clemson and Virginia (in case Virginia loses).That leave Syracuse in solo sixth. Duke is 1-0 vs. Cuse, UNC is 1-1.

The trickiest possibility is both Clemson and Pitt losing, creating a four-way tie for fourth at 11-9 w/Cuse and Wake.Both UNC and Duke were 4-2 vs. that groupUNC: 1-1 v. Cuse, 1-0 v. WF, 1-0 v. Pitt, 1-1 v. ClemsonDuke: 1-0 v. Cuse, 1-1 v. WF, 1-1 v. Pitt, 1-0 v. Clemson

That scenario means there's a good chance that Duke going 1-1 against Georgia Tech and North Carolina being 0-1 against the Yellow Jackets decides the No. 1 seed. But if only it were that simple!

If Georgia Tech ends up in a tie with Miami (who was 0-1 vs. Duke and 0-2 vs. North Carolina) and NOT Notre Dame (who lost to Duke twice and Carolina once), then the winning percentages against common opponents will be the same all the way through the standings.

Example: UNC 2-1 (0-1 vs. GT, 2-0 vs. Miami) Duke 2-1 (1-1 vs. GT, 1-0 vs. Miami) OR UNC 3-1 (0-1 vs. GT, 2-0 vs. Miami, 1-0 vs. BC) Duke 3-1 (1-1 vs. GT, 1-0 vs. Miami, 1-0 vs. BC)

If my math is right (and heck, it might not be, I'm pretty tired), it could be coinflip territory with the following set of results:Miami beats BCMiami loses to FSUNotre Dame beats VTDuke beats UNCClemson loses to WakePitt loses to N.C. StateGeorgia Tech loses to Virginia

That would result in ...

Duke/UNC 16-3
Virginia 13-7
Clem/Pitt/WF/Cuse 11-9
FSU/NCSU 10-10
VT 9-11
ND 8-12
Miami/GT 7-13
BC 6-14 OR 7-13
UL 4-16 OR 3-17

My little head hurts

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Good news is we won’t be an 8/9 correct?

We only have 9 losses.

VT/FSU/NCState already have 10.

 

[Swill155]

So from my understanding, Cuse and wake are both 2-1 in the mini group. Pitt is 1-2. They would be 7. Then it goes to whomever has beaten the higher seeded team, so I think it would depend who wins between unc and duke. We beat unc, they beat duke. So if unc wins Cuse would be 5 if duke wins Cuse would be 6

 

[richmondcuse03]

I think if we win 3 we are in and wouldn’t have to win the whole thing that would be potentiallly three quad 1 wins on a neutral floor correct?

Yup. I think that’s a realistic take. We’d have a better resume against some other bubble teams in that scenario. 6 seed is what we want (assuming UNC is the two).