2025 NCAA Tournament Selection Watch (Bubble + Other)

[jncuse]

I have always done these later in the season, even when Syracuse is out. But I'm pretty sure the second last day of the regular season is the latest I started tracking it. Probably just an indication of my NCAA interest -- that being said it always pick up to some degree come March

Main reason I typically post these is to get some structure for myself or others for what to track / what games to watch the upcoming few days (in particular around the bubble).

Let's start with the matrix - using this as my "consensus" guide. I may make my opinion on a few of these, but I'm not seeding teams myself - not worth my time.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

Current Teams per Conference
SEC - 13 (+1 first 4 out)
B10 - 10 (+1 first 4 out)
B12 - 8
Big East - 5
MWC - 3 (+1 first 4 out)
ACC - 3 (+1 first 4 out)
WCC - 2
One Bids - 24

The split is largely as I expected after tracking OOC performance earlier this year. The SEC did historically good in OOC - way better than even the BE ever did ... ACC did really bad. SEC beat ACC something like 34-4 (I'll verify that later). Big 10 was the second best. Big 12 wasn't much better than BE, but they boosted their NET's on margin.

3 for the ACC was probably the worst case scenario. At end of December I would have expected 4, maybe 5. But what has happened is lack of quality win opportunities due to ACC's OOC, and its easier to get "bad" losses. It will be interesting to see how they treat UNC.

 

[jncuse]

Bubble Busters (Teams that get into the tournament only by winning their conference, and it removes a bubble team)

Last year there was 5 bubble busters -- typically there is 1 maybe 2. It was a crazy tournament week -- and it happened both at the mid-major level (common) and major level (very uncommon) I believe the teams were Oregon, New Mexico, Drake, NC St, UAB

Teams to track the following few weeks

Memphis (AAC) - They are getting in regardless - currently a projected 7 seed. They are 16-2. But North Texas and UAB could still a bid from somebody

VCU (A-10) - Currently projected as a 10 seed, they have good chances of getting in without winning the A-10. The A-10 is a common bubble buster as we have seen ourselves in 2017.

Drake (MVC) UCSan Diego) These are borderline at large teams. I'm not sure either gets an at-large if they lose, especially based on committee precedence, but if Syracuse was a bubble team you just want Drake to lock it up.

Drake is 2-0 in Q1, 3-0 in Q2 ...but a weakish 10-3 in Q3 games. The wins are borderline Q1 (Neutral Vanderbilt, and at Kansas St). Personally I would put them in - I always give these teams the benefit of the doubt.

To me 26-3, and 5-0 in Q1+Q2, no matter the teams means you should get in somewhere.

 

[jncuse]

UC San Diego is another interesting one.
25-4, NET 36
2-1 in Q1 (with road wins at Utah St and San Diego St who are both just in the NCAA tournament)
1 bad loss.
To me they strongly deserve consideration as well.

So I guess one of the storylines this year will be what to make of Drake and UC San Diego if they don't win their conference tournaments.

 

[jncuse]

Games of Note this weekend

Sat 3:45 - 5th last in Ohio St (99 of 103) at Indiana (Q1)
Sat 3:45 - 3rd last in Indiana (98 of 103) vs Ohio St (Q2)
Sat 4:00 - Last in Xavier (42 of 103) vs Providence (Q3)
Sat 6:30 - 3rd Out UNC (18 of 103) vs Duke (Q1)
Sat 8:00 - 2nd last in Oklahoma (84 of 103) at Texas (Q1)
Sat 8:00 - 2nd Out Texas (22 of 103) vs Oklahoma (Q2)
Sat 10:30 - 4th last in San Diego St (98 of 103) vs Nevada (Q3)
Sun 12:30 - 4th Out Nebraska (15 of 103) vs Iowa (Q2)
Inactive - First Out Boise St

 

[jncuse]

I'm not sure if I have ever seen as drastic a change in resume under NET and RPI, as the following two BIG teams. Right in the discussion under NET, clearly out under RPI. Obviously RPI quadrant records are totally irrelevant to the discussion, but you get the side by side from Warren Nolan.
As to the why - I'll try to explain later. Have a theory based on my OOC Tracking and its not gaming but more NET itself -- certainly seems the BIG got some NET benefit this year. And I'm certainly not pushing for RPI either.

Ohio St - 5th last team in

Nebraska - 4th team out.

 

[kirbivore]

With Syracuse out the teams I'll be rooting for are St. John's and anyone vs. Duke and storz. I know most you would spit on Lunardi's grave but his bracket today has St. John's as the #3 seed in Houston's region. That's a dream draw.

 

[jncuse]

Games of Note this weekend

Sat 3:45 - 5th last in Ohio St (99 of 103) at Indiana (Q1)
Sat 3:45 - 3rd last in Indiana (98 of 103) vs Ohio St (Q2)
Sat 4:00 - Last in Xavier (42 of 103) vs Providence (Q3)
Sat 6:30 - 3rd Out UNC (18 of 103) vs Duke (Q1)
Sat 8:00 - 2nd last in Oklahoma (84 of 103) at Texas (Q1)
Sat 8:00 - 2nd Out Texas (22 of 103) vs Oklahoma (Q2)
Sat 10:30 - 4th last in San Diego St (98 of 103) vs Nevada (Q3)
Sun 12:30 - 4th Out Nebraska (15 of 103) vs Iowa (Q2)
Inactive - First Out Boise St

Indiana beat Ohio St in a big game for both.
Texas lost at home to Oklahoma. Big loss for them.

But Texas has the prototypical SEC resume... 6-12 in conference, but 5 out of those games count as Q1, 14 of their SEC games were Q1, all 18 were Q1 or Q2. Nothing bad in terms of Q3, but then again they only had 2 such games.

 

[jncuse]

With Syracuse out the teams I'll be rooting for are St. John's and anyone vs. Duke and storz. I know most you would spit on Lunardi's grave but his bracket today has St. John's as the #3 seed in Houston's region. That's a dream draw.

Matrix has them as team #8... so they are on the fringe of #2 or #2.

If they do end up as a #2 seed, they are almost guaranteed to be with an SEC team as there #1... that is because they will keep the 4 SEC teams on the top 2 seed lines in different regions.

 

[jncuse]

Drake wins the MVC, so one potential bubble buster is averted.
That being said, when on the bubble, the MVC regular season champ typically gets left out -- like Indiana St last year.

IMO, Drake had a much stronger resume than Indiana St but the matrix didn't see it that way.

So the next one to watch for in this "group" is UC San Diego.

 

[jncuse]

Nebraska is out -- totally imploded down the stretch with 5 losses in a row to fall from 17-9 to 17-14. Worst yet 3 of those losses were against non-tourney teams, and two of those 3 games were at home.

They fall to 7-13, and won't even qualify for the BIG tournament.

They were probably a team around an 8 seed before this stretch (give or take a seed), and now are probably going to be a 3 seed in the NIT or something.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

Drake wins the MVC, so one potential bubble buster is averted.
That being said, when on the bubble, the MVC regular season champ typically gets left out -- like Indiana St last year.

IMO, Drake had a much stronger resume than Indiana St but the matrix didn't see it that way.

So the next one to watch for in this "group" is UC San Diego.

Thanks for doing this every year. Have always looked forward to it. Fully understand why this is version 1.0.

Drake is an interesting program. 4th Bid in 5 seasons. Very jealous. And most of their squad were D2 kids last year. Great things going on there.

 

[kirbivore]

Drake wins the MVC, so one potential bubble buster is averted.
That being said, when on the bubble, the MVC regular season champ typically gets left out -- like Indiana St last year.

IMO, Drake had a much stronger resume than Indiana St but the matrix didn't see it that way.

So the next one to watch for in this "group" is UC San Diego.

Yup. Like I said in another thread don't leave it in the hands of a committee that'd rather put in a 12th place SEC team.

 

[jncuse]

Yup. Like I said in another thread don't leave it in the hands of a committee that'd rather put in a 12th place SEC team.

I feel the 10th BIG team is a bigger issue this year than the 12th SEC team.

But I agree they will always go with Q1 wins which is inherently biased for or against some.

 

[Knicks411]

Matrix has them as team #8... so they are on the fringe of #2 or #2.

If they do end up as a #2 seed, they are almost guaranteed to be with an SEC team as there #1... that is because they will keep the 4 SEC teams on the top 2 seed lines in different regions.

I'm really hoping for Duke-SJU in the east, so I dont like reading that.

I thought they always kept the top 3 teams from a conf in different regions, but would they necessarily do it for the 4th? Even if they're in the same region they wouldnt be slated to meet till the Elite 8, meanwhile there are so many other SEC teams that will also make it.

 

[jncuse]

I'm really hoping for Duke-SJU in the east, so I dont like reading that.

I thought they always kept the top 3 teams from a conf in different regions, but would they necessarily do it for the 4th? Even if they're in the same region they wouldnt be slated to meet till the Elite 8, meanwhile there are so many other SEC teams that will also make it.

You are correct as I was likely looking more at preferences of the past and S-Curve balance, and now its all location, location, moving down from the top ranked team in each seed line (while maintaining the only rule about the top 3).

So it is very possible that an SEC team could be 1-2 in a region especially under the new bracketing conventions.

The best hope to get Duke-St. John's in the East would actually be if St. John's was the top #3 seed, rather than the last #2 seed. You will see below.

Let's assume the team ranking list is as per the matrix
1. Auburn (Closest site available is Atlanta)
2. Duke (Closest site available is Newark)
3. Houston (Closest = Indianapolis)
4. Florida (Assigned San Francisco as #1)

5. Alabama (#3 SEC, so must take Indy or Newark -- Indy is Closer)
6. Tennessee (Assigned Atlanta as closest)
7. Michigan St (Assigned Newark as its closer than San Fran)
8. St John's (Assigned San Fran as only one left)

So it would be
Auburn - Tennessee (Atlanta)
Duke - Michigan St (Newark)
Houston - Alabama (Indy)
Florida - St John's (San Fran)

I guess the key to get Duke and St. John's in the East, is for St. John's to get ahead of Michigan St on the #2 line. Or for St. John's to end up #9 and the top 3 seed.

If you are ranked #8 you are almost guaranteed to go out West (same as #4). So #4-#8 will be in West, which seems unbalanced, but appears inevitable.

 

[jncuse]

Decided to run 9-16, after doing 1-8 above.
They start with the best on a seed line, and give them the closest site available following the top 3 conference rule.

Let's assume the team ranking list is as per the matrix
1. Auburn (Closest site available is Atlanta)
2. Duke (Closest remaining site available is Newark)
3. Houston (Closest remaining is Indianapolis)
4. Florida (Assigned San Francisco as last remaining)

5. Alabama (Indy, #3 SEC so must take Indy or Newark -- Indy is Closer)
6. Tennessee (Assigned Atlanta as closest)
7. Michigan St (Assigned Newark as its closer than San Fran)
8. St John's (Assigned San Fran as last remaining)

9. Texas Tech (Assigned Atlanta as closest)
10. Texas A&M (Assigned Indy as closest remaining)
11. Wisconsin (Assigned to San Fran, as Mich St already in Newark)
12. Kentucky (Assigned to Newark)

13. Iowa St (Assigned Newark, only choice was Newark or San Fran)
14. Purdue (Assigned Indy, choice was Indy or Atlanta)
15. Maryland (Assigned Atlanta as closest remaining)
16. Arizona (Assigned San Fran)

Atlanta = Auburn, Tennessee, Texas Tech, Maryland
Newark = Duke, Michigan St, Kentucky, Iowa St
Indy = Houston, Alabama, Texas A&M, Purdue
San Fran = Florida, St. John's, Wisconsin, Arizona

The West will be the weakest -- it's almost guaranteed to get team ranked #4 and #8.

 

[jncuse]

I'm not sure if I have ever seen this much consensus heading into conference tournament week.
Out of 97 brackets, the first team out per the matrix is only mentioned in 10 of the brackets. Of course that is no guarantee that the committee thinks the same but its rare they take teams with less than 10% in per the matrix.

It could get interesting, but we will need one of two things:
1) Two bubble busters, which may not happen this year. 4 or 5 last year will not happen.
2) Or a tournament run to the final by say Texas, Wake, UNC.

But as of now, its a pretty boring bubble line.

 

[jncuse]

Looking through the resumes of the following schools (above the line) trying to figure the schools that UNC would be in a competitive discussion with if they beat Wake on day 3 of the ACC (before losing to Duke in the Semi's). This is based on what the committee normally considers not what I think they should consider.

In terms of the majors, I really only see Xavier as a team right now that can be debated with UNC. Matrix only has 79/97 for Ohio St, but I find it hard to argue UNC above them

In terms of the teams below that, there is the more recent ACC/MWC debate with San Diego St. I'll post a few points later re Xavier/SD St vs UNC.