Tough call, but I'll say retain.
But I do know for sure I don't want RF2044 coming after me.
It really IS a tough call. I think Shafer is just about best case scenario
off the field for our program. I like what they're doing on the recruiting trail, I like the skilled players they are beginning to bring in, I like the pitch they're making to parents, the academic focus, etc.
But on game day, on the field... another story. And unfortunately, that's the criteria that he's evaluated most against--and rightly so. Nothing would please me more than to have Shafer succeed. That would be ideal for us as fans. But my fear when we hired him was that while he was a fine coordinator, it was unknown whether he had the chops to be head coach. I was very much against the lack of due diligence it seemed like we didn't do when it came to hiring him, instead of conducting a more thorough, national search. I was at the PSU / Northwestern games three years ago, and was sickened by what I saw on both sides of the ball.
Then, the coaching staff righted the ship. The defense got a lot better. We won all of our 50/50 games except one--which had not been true in more than a decade. Got to a bowl game and won against a Minnesota team that had trounced us the year before [despite the final score]. And it seemed as though the staff--while clearly going through some growing pains--seemed to be up to the task.
Last year started off on the wrong foot with that awful Villanova near miss. The injuries we sustained at both QB and OL were absurd to the point that it seemed like we couldn't fairly evaluate the staff based upon how many players we were down. We had a wildly unusual loss against Maryland, with unbelievable statistical anomalies. And we had a historically bad year offensively. So I felt like this year was the proving ground for Shafer and staff.
What happened at the beginning of the year? The execution seemed exponentially better. The QB was cause for optimism. And while Dungey missed nearly half of the first several games, we seemed to be trending in the right direction. But unfortunately, it has been all downhill. Losing at UVa was a debacle. Not capitalizing against Pitt was another huge blow. Those two games were season changing gut punches. And combined with what happened against FSU and Louisville, I think it cements Shafer's fate.
I'd love to see us win the next two. And I would love it if Shafer had used this season's "proving ground" to erase doubts about his coaching acumen. But I don't think that he has, and I think we need to upgrade at HC. I understand that there are numerous reasons why he might be retained for another year, not the least of which involve million dollar contractual implications. If he stays, then I'll root just as hard for him and the team next year. But personally speaking, I've seen enough to come to the conclusion that Shafer isn't good enough for this challenge. That is hardly the torches and pitchfork knee jerk reaction foolishly alluded to in the post above.