SMU may be a top 25 team next year with Mudiay, but they aren't going to be as good as your claiming. They lose 2 rotation guys, and add 1 5 star recruit. I don't see them as being a NC contender, but I understand your optimism.SMU is most likely to be the best team (or Duke) from either conference. They are going to be very very good.
My point isn't that the AAC will be close to the ACC (it won't) just that the top of the league is much better than the top of the A-10, BE, etc. conferences.
If an AAC school goes undefeated could they get into the playoff? Maybe. Big maybe.
Who will get more top 4 seeds next year in the NCAA Tournament AAC or ACC? I would say its probably going to be the ACC and when I was listing the top 5 teams I was talking about brands. AAC will at best be the A-10, Big East, MWC good at the top, but no middle class, and bunch of anchors at the bottom.