ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[syracuse95]

This is all just so dumb, for so many reasons, and in the long run it's going to ruin not only college football, but college athletics as a whole. For a lot of people it already has. After this becomes a 2-conference sport dominated by southern and midwestern teams, I question whether there will be enough viewership nationally to justify the massive TV payouts. College sports are going to end up as an MBA case study in 30-40 years, and not because it was all a massive success.

 

[Hoo's That]

At the very least, the ACC should try to pick up X-number of OOC games each year with the Pac-12 remnant in order to upgrade the ACC schedules.

 

[UpstateSM]

Does Arizona help the Big12 though? They are near the bottom of that conference in viewers. Then again so was Colorado.

Apparently there is some thought that the B1G/SEC’s long game in the hoops realm is to steal March Madne$$ from the NCAA so the Big 12 is trying to beef up their already A+ hoops side to the level where they can’t be left out of anything basketball related.

Of all the realignment stuff I think that is the absolute worst idea of them all but I can comprehend the thought process from all three leagues.

 

[Acesn8s]

This is all just so dumb, for so many reasons, and in the long run it's going to ruin not only college football, but college athletics as a whole. For a lot of people it already has. After this becomes a 2-conference sport dominated by southern and midwestern teams, I question whether there will be enough viewership nationally to justify the massive TV payouts. College sports are going to end up as an MBA case study in 30-40 years, and not because it was all a massive success.

I couldn’t agree more eventually the fan interest will fade when their teams are playing basically D2 football, viewership will drop, TV deals will be less justified. The market will self correct this nonsense eventually but by then the damage will be done.

 

[Chip]

It's not a matter of winning its a matter of 90+ million a year versus 45 million. It's why Texas and Oklahoma bolted for a conference neither of them is likely winning anytime soon

And why USC and UCLA left for a conference that makes zero geographical sense and will leave their teams and coaches miserable. (I still say the B1G is going to need to get them more travel partners out that way or risk destroying those programs, but I digress.)

But the real question on FSU and Clemson leaving in, say, 2033 is, does anyone really want them? Big 12 sure, but by that time they might also have a better idea of what the ACC TV deal will be.

Until then, purgatory. But they make enough money to stay relevant programs. The ADs will just have to suffer through lower salaries than their counterparts. Maybe we could take up a collection.

 

[HtownOrange]

Apparently there is some thought that the B1G/SEC’s long game in the hoops realm is to steal March Madne$$ from the NCAA so the Big 12 is trying to beef up their already A+ hoops side to the level where they can’t be left out of anything basketball related.

Of all the realignment stuff I think that is the absolute worst idea of them all but I can comprehend the thought process from all three leagues.

It’s not entirely a bad strategy as long as it is one element of the strategy. Hoops has much more exposure and relatively the same viewership. The true upside is not football, which everyone believes drives the bus and has likely peaked or near peaked; rather, hoops is undervalued by the networks to keep more profits.

Ex. if the standard contract leans 75/25 football to hoops, the viewership rates are equal (close enough for this simple analysis), hoops offers much more growth potential. Football, with 7 home games, offers 21 hours of advertising. Hoops with roughly 20 home games at 2 hours, offers 40 hours of advertising, nearly twice that of football.

Essentially, the networks are sandbagging on hoops. At the 75/25 ratio, football is allegedly bringing 6X the advertising money than hoops, hour for hour. The viewership rates are not 6X higher for football as opposed to hoops, this makes hoops the growth side of the equation.

Any TV insider can clear this up with good data so we can get a good picture, but for a general discussion, the above works to prove the point.

 

[Admiral Koga]

FSU and Clemson have no viable way to leave now. As I noted they are locked in for at least another 8+ years but it's clear the current situation won't be tenable to keep them through the end of the current agreement or to re up with the ACC without a massive yearly payout increase. The biggest concern for SU and the other ACC schools is that as the payout gap continues to widen with the B10 and SEC thr FSUs, Clemson and UNCs will simply play out the string until it'd close enough to the end of the GOR where they can try and bolt.

Well, I guess that they could leave tomorrow, but what would the cost of that be? Every team changing conferences has 'accepted' within 2 years of their media contract expiration. It also seems that this is the 'unwritten rule' with the poaching conference too. FSU is clearly saying "If you are gonna offer us in 2034, offer us now as we're willing to try and fight the long term GOR". Let's see if Big10/SEC take them up on it...

 

[CousCuse]

So, give us an example of "very ugly". Mind you, teams of lawyers have been looking at this for years.

The attorney's for FSU would be able to go into the internal communication's at ESPN and Disney.

 

[CousCuse]

But the payout would be double that $300m number people keep posting, which shows how wronf they are.

Why would any ACC school approve those schools leaving for half of what they old owe, currently.

Yes that number will decrease every year, but for them to make the move now, would cost them over a half billion dollars, not including legal fees.

So if those two leave, that would split $1B between the remaining ACC teams.

I'm no math major, but that's a lot of scratch

$300 million is what they are willing to offer and not let a court decide, or so it seems.

 

[Acesn8s]

The whole system
Is going to blow up, there will be two major conferences probably with 24 teams each and the rest will be left so far behind financially it will be impossible to compete. I think eventually it will all backfire as the nations interest is cut in half but who knows. Syracuse has one shot at making it in this new world of Elite college athletics and it’s the SEC with their 24th pick wants to be in NY market because the Big 10 already. Do I think it will happen no way, but that’s about it.

 

[All4SU]

A couple random thoughts.

1- This is a message board. Speculation and hypothesizing is what fuels it. I think that if you enter a thread about realignment you need to expect it. If wild ideas and concepts, along with realignment-driven anxiety, are not your jam, I'd probably find a more concrete thread to visit.

2- As most of you know, I now follow Arizona football pretty closely and have been paying close attention to how they react here. IMO the PAC-12 deal is pretty shite. Massive dependency on subscribers for teams to make any real $. I suspect Arizona knows it's best path forward is taking the guaranteed $31 mill per year from the Big 12 (which is a solid deal albeit not near the two big conferences). But they also don't want to be the ones solely responsible for "killing" the Big-12, so they likely want to get ASU and Utah on board as well. Last night the AZ board of regents held a special executive session (oversees Arizona and ASU) purportedly to discuss this. We will see what happens.

IMO, Arizona, ASU, and Utah are going to opt to join the Big 12, ultimately ending the PAC-12 as we know it.

3- I don't know what the best path forward for the ACC is but as I see it, the answer is not sitting idly and doing nothing. That doesn't mean overreact, but certainly consider all options. If the PAC-12 dissolves I would absolutely be reaching out to the PAC-12 leftovers and exploring a western division of teams including a half dozen or so of the western schools. I'm not saying I definitely add them as it only works if the dollars work (and they may not want to anyway) but you really do need to kick the tires on all options right now. As it stands, if (and likely when) the PAC-12 falls, the ACC is probably the 4th out of 4 major football conferences remaining. Not an emergency, not even a short term problem, but definitely and intermediate- and long-term concern. And waiting till it is an emergency will ultimately result in the fate that befell the PAC-12.

Again, just my take.

I don’t understand why the PAC didn’t move to absorb the best of the Big12. They seem like be a better group of schools. And the Big 12 is vulnerable on all sides.

 

[Cuse181]

In times like these I think it is important to remember that this is all Nova's fault. Had they just manned up and voted to allow Penn State into the Big East 40 years ago we would be sitting pretty. But alas...

 

[texascpa]

The attorney's for FSU would be able to go into the internal communication's at ESPN and Disney.

And...? so what? How would those impact the GOR?

 

[JeremyCuse]

And why USC and UCLA left for a conference that makes zero geographical sense and will leave their teams and coaches miserable. (I still say the B1G is going to need to get them more travel partners out that way or risk destroying those programs, but I digress.)

But the real question on FSU and Clemson leaving in, say, 2033 is, does anyone really want them? Big 12 sure, but by that time they might also have a better idea of what the ACC TV deal will be.

Until then, purgatory. But they make enough money to stay relevant programs. The ADs will just have to suffer through lower salaries than their counterparts. Maybe we could take up a collection.

I am not sure the B10 or the SEC is in love with either FSU or Clemson but if it will increase the yearly payout by a few million more and be the death knell to the ACC I think they will jump at the chance. For the B10 it would allow them to get their hands on UNC and UVA which is who they really covet and who I think the SEC would likely want as well as they already have Florida and South Carolina covered. I think the main fball players ie Clemson, FSU and Miami overvalue their actual worth to the B10 and SEC especially FSU and Miami who save for FSU during the Winston years hasn't exactly been killing it on the field. Miami especially hasn't been nationally relevant since Ken Dorsey was there 20 + years ago.

 

[JeremyCuse]

In times like these I think it is important to remember that this is all Nova's fault. Had they just manned up and voted to allow Penn State into the Big East 40 years ago we would be sitting pretty. But alas...

Probably the biggest error of all time in Conference Re-alignment. The lack of foresight for those bball schools who voted against PSU is beyond stunning.

 

[WoadBlue]

The deal that was presented yesterday was laughable at best. AppleTV streaming and money based on number of subscribers. That shouldn't give anyone any comfort of the long-term viability of the Pac12. I think Arizona is gone.

Probably so. The Big clearly wants Arizona, and Arizona football never is among the top half of Pac TV viewer numbers. So neither SEC nor BT would ever sniff Arizona.

 

[WoadBlue]

Probably the biggest error of all time in Conference Re-alignment. The lack of foresight for those bball schools who voted against PSU is beyond stunning.

Well, just think of all the stupid moves, and failures to make moves, because of ACC basketball interests, going back to the founding.

 

[WoadBlue]

I am not sure the B10 or the SEC is in love with either FSU or Clemson but if it will increase the yearly payout by a few million more and be the death knell to the ACC I think they will jump at the chance. For the B10 it would allow them to get their hands on UNC and UVA which is who they really covet and who I think the SEC would likely want as well as they already have Florida and South Carolina covered. I think the main fball players ie Clemson, FSU and Miami overvalue their actual worth to the B10 and SEC especially FSU and Miami who save for FSU during the Winston years hasn't exactly been killing it on the field. Miami especially hasn't been nationally relevant since Ken Dorsey was there 20 + years ago.

Death knell of the ACC is what they are after. Each wants to end real competition form any other league. They have to accept the other will survive and they can agree they wanted Big 12, Pac, and ACC all either dead or seriously demoted.

 

[WoadBlue]

I don’t understand why the PAC didn’t move to absorb the best of the Big12. They seem like be a better group of schools. And the Big 12 is vulnerable on all sides.

Pac arrogance. They felt the Pac was too good to have schools such as Oklahoma St and Kansas St, as well as religiously affiliated schools.

Along those lines, I think both BT and SEC assumed that ACC arrogance would mean that the ACC would not add Louisville to replace Maryland but would add UConn, which would drive FSU and Clemson to leave ASAP.

 

[WoadBlue]

The whole system
Is going to blow up, there will be two major conferences probably with 24 teams each and the rest will be left so far behind financially it will be impossible to compete. I think eventually it will all backfire as the nations interest is cut in half but who knows. Syracuse has one shot at making it in this new world of Elite college athletics and it’s the SEC with their 24th pick wants to be in NY market because the Big 10 already. Do I think it will happen no way, but that’s about it.

It is analogous to moves to consolidate made in other areas of business. It always make handful of already very rich even richer and impoverishes not just many individuals but also at times can even harm the 'product's' perception with the public. I think that these moves will kill much of the once nationwide audience for major college sports.

 

[WoadBlue]

At the very least, the ACC should try to pick up X-number of OOC games each year with the Pac-12 remnant in order to upgrade the ACC schedules.

Absolutely. But it seems they are doing nothing.

I read an SEC guy yesterday say he thinks that ESPN and Fox worked together too are certain that the ACC and Pac each would have weak do nothing commissioners when they made the next big moves so that those leagues could be dispensed with. His view is that each network determined years ago to force consolidation fort their benefits.

 

[orangenauburn]

$300 million is what they are willing to offer and not let a court decide, or so it seems.

Lol why?

There's already precedent from other schools moving and paying fees based off GoR

FSU and their fans / admin are smoking Chongs stash

ACC can tell them they need to adhere to it and has deeper pockets to pay for legal fees than FSU

No one is saying they cannot leave

They can. They just will have to pay their full share to do so.

 

[Acesn8s]

I think the best thing that could happen in this $hi! Show is FSU goes to court tries to fight grant of rights and gets litigated to death and ultimately loses. Then they lose and are stuck.

 

[syracuse95]

The whole system
Is going to blow up, there will be two major conferences probably with 24 teams each and the rest will be left so far behind financially it will be impossible to compete. I think eventually it will all backfire as the nations interest is cut in half but who knows. Syracuse has one shot at making it in this new world of Elite college athletics and it’s the SEC with their 24th pick wants to be in NY market because the Big 10 already. Do I think it will happen no way, but that’s about it.

Exactly this. College football isn't the NFL. Most people's fandom and team loyalty is driven by where they went to undergrad. That won't change just because there are only 48 teams playing major college football. What drives the massive viewership numbers is that there are 132 (I think?) 1A teams with built in fanbases of varying size. A lot of those people will go away and not come back.

I already don't watch Georgia-Ole Miss. I'm not going to start just because Syracuse isn't on TV anymore.

 

[texascpa]

Probably so. The Big clearly wants Arizona, and Arizona football never is among the top half of Pac TV viewer numbers. So neither SEC nor BT would ever sniff Arizona.

Apparently, the head coach of ASU had a Teams call with player parents yesterday and told them ASU's home is wherever there is "stability". Now, it seems, ASU, UofA and Utah may be heading to Big12.