ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[Toga]

What credible source has revealed that FSU and Clemson have broken the GOR and will leave the ACC for a mere $300MM? The exit fee alone is 3X the annual revenue, which was $41-$42MM last year, or $123-$126MM, plus the cost of obtaining their media rights which is 12 years at $42MM (probably more but a number for now) X2.1 (the minimum multiplier established by OU and UT).

Then the ACC must agree to the buy out. Let's just ignore the fact that no ACC member has any incentive to agree to the buy out.

Then ESPN must agree to the buy out. Let's just ignore the fact that ESPN will destroy one of it's money making ventures and has no other incentive to agree to the buy out.

And we will completely ignore the fact that FSU and Clemson have no offer to accept a slot in either the B1G or the SEC. I think it safe to assume neither FSU nor Clemson is jumping to the Big 12.

And we will completely ignore the fact that neither FSU nor Clemson have a cool billion laying around the AD's office plus to pay the more likely exit fees.

And we must absolutely forget that the attorneys with each conference, each team, ESPN, and many many private firms have concluded that the GOR cannot be broken outside of a an over-the-top buyout.

So what is the secret that FSU and Clemson figured out that no one else could figure out?

Well sure, there's that.

 

[Bayside44]

Not sure if this belongs here or a new thread...raises the question of how this all gets funded and value moving forward:

How ESPN Went From Disney’s Financial Engine to Its Problem (Published 2023)

The sports juggernaut continues to earn billions of dollars for Disney, but profits are down and opportunities for growth have dwindled.

www.nytimes.com

 

[UpstateSM]

Realignment is starting to have a considerable negative impact on my excitement for college football. We’re less than a month away from the season and the discourse everyplace is centered around this instead of the actual football. It’s exhausting.

The sport will be ruined by 2030. Hopefully they don’t take March Madness from me, too.

 

[texascpa]

Not sure if this belongs here or a new thread...raises the question of how this all gets funded and value moving forward:

How ESPN Went From Disney’s Financial Engine to Its Problem (Published 2023)

The sports juggernaut continues to earn billions of dollars for Disney, but profits are down and opportunities for growth have dwindled.

www.nytimes.com

Disney is currently shopping ESPN.

 

[All4SU]

Exactly this. College football isn't the NFL. Most people's fandom and team loyalty is driven by where they went to undergrad. That won't change just because there are only 48 teams playing major college football. What drives the massive viewership numbers is that there are 132 (I think?) 1A teams with built in fanbases of varying size. A lot of those people will go away and not come back.

I already don't watch Georgia-Ole Miss. I'm not going to start just because Syracuse isn't on TV anymore.

There are lots of sports I don’t follow anymore, for various reasons. It’s easy to quit following a sport. The SEC and B10 are delusional if they believe people will watch them just because. People love college football. But two “conferences” of 24 teams is not college football. It’s just NFL Lite.

 

[Cuse181]

Disney is currently shopping ESPN.

A bit of a misconception: they are shopping ABC, they moved ESPN out from under ABC last year. They are currently trying to court a minority investor to help fund ESPN as they attempt to release a linear-like streaming option (aka not ESPN+). They have full intention of keeping ESPN in house for the time being.

 

[Willy75]

Apparently there is some thought that the B1G/SEC’s long game in the hoops realm is to steal March Madne$$ from the NCAA so the Big 12 is trying to beef up their already A+ hoops side to the level where they can’t be left out of anything basketball related.

Of all the realignment stuff I think that is the absolute worst idea of them all but I can comprehend the thought process from all three leagues.

Good luck with that. I'm salivating over Miss St v Purdue in the round of 16.

 

[OrangeXtreme]

Probably the biggest error of all time in Conference Re-alignment. The lack of foresight for those bball schools who voted against PSU is beyond stunning.

Wouldn't have made a difference.

Voting PSU into the Big East for Basketball/Non-rev sports wouldn't have solved the football problem.

PSU would have still jumped at the B1G invite.

If it wasn't for SU, BC, and Pitt threatening to leave, the BE would have never gotten into the football business in the first place.

At the end of the day, the New Big East is exactly what Gavitt intended the Old Big East to be.

 

[Acesn8s]

There are lots of sports I don’t follow anymore, for various reasons. It’s easy to quit following a sport. The SEC and B10 are delusional if they believe people will watch them just because. People love college football. But two “conferences” of 24 teams is not college football. It’s just NFL Lite.

I agree, I love College Football I have had season tickets for as long as I was old enough to buy them, I plan my falls for trips and seeing new places, its just something I love and planned on taking my kids on trips just as I did with my father, however if it gets to the point where it’s simply two mega conferences and everyone else is playing JV, I’ll find something else to
Do with my time and $$. I have 10 season tickets, for many years, but I will drop them all if Syracuse starts playing mid major football with no path to compete with teams they used to play.

 

[HtownOrange]

$300 million is what they are willing to offer and not let a court decide, or so it seems.

$300MM is barely the exit fee plus three years TV revenue. No ACC member nor ESPN will agree to such offer.

Let the FSU big mouths talk, ignore them. Pay attention to the FSU board and true leaders. They are not even speaking of leaving as they have analyzed the GOR and know better. They will remain silent and then will not be overly plain, that is until the mid 2030's when the ACC TV deal will be up for renewal. Only then will real action on the part of FSU occur.

And don't assume the B1G and SEC will be all peaches and cream as there are too many big dogs in each conference that don't like sharing power.

 

[HtownOrange]

Well, I imagine if this were to go to court, the discovery phase could be very ugly.

Only if FSU alleges a conspiracy between the other parties. But then their records become subject to scrutiny. It's not as easy as Hollywood makes it appears in Movies and TV. A party may only obtain records which are relevant to the case at hand, no fishing expeditions allowed.

 

[orangecuse]

But people still said it. That’s the point. I choose not to care about things ten years from now when nothing ever stays the same for that long.

Well, there's that saying; the more things change, the more they stay the same. And, in regards to the haves and the have nots, that's a pretty darn true & accurate expression.

 

[longtimefan]

A good summary:

What's next in college sports conference realignment? Here's where the shaky landscape stands

The Pac-12 appears to be on life support. A decision from one of the four-corner schools could prove as a lifesaver or a death knell. College athletics is on fragile ground.

sports.yahoo.com

 

[CuseCactus]

$300MM is barely the exit fee plus three years TV revenue. No ACC member nor ESPN will agree to such offer.

Let the FSU big mouths talk, ignore them. Pay attention to the FSU board and true leaders. They are not even speaking of leaving as they have analyzed the GOR and know better. They will remain silent and then will not be overly plain, that is until the mid 2030's when the ACC TV deal will be up for renewal. Only then will real action on the part of FSU occur.

And don't assume the B1G and SEC will be all peaches and cream as there are too many big dogs in each conference that don't like sharing power.

Good post. The UofF grads I know think nothing of FSU. I know the SEC is much bigger than just FLA - but that rivalry is very different from, say Texas v Texas A&M. When A&M left for the SEC, all my UT pals were genuinely bummed - because it was a fun rivalry.

I think UofF people look at FSU like an inbred cousin. Maybe like how UNC views NCSt.

And I think generally FSU has very little good will out there.

Not sure about Clemson.

 

[Orangezoo]

There are lots of sports I don’t follow anymore, for various reasons. It’s easy to quit following a sport. The SEC and B10 are delusional if they believe people will watch them just because. People love college football. But two “conferences” of 24 teams is not college football. It’s just NFL Lite.

Also in terms of hypotheticals not outside of the realm of possibility.. at what point in such a reality does the NFL start seeing the opportunity now that everything is consolidated to push for a minor league and rain on the new super conference's parade? We now have USFL and the XFL and this renewed push for more professional football.

It could backfire in more ways than one.

 

[supp]

It's neoliberalism at work. The ideas behind it have contaminated everything including sports. We were told an unfettered capitalism would get us more free and fair competition. Instead it's led to monopolies and consolidations, collusion and back-room deals, permanent haves and have-nots.

 

[MikeSU02]

$300MM is barely the exit fee plus three years TV revenue. No ACC member nor ESPN will agree to such offer.

Let the FSU big mouths talk, ignore them. Pay attention to the FSU board and true leaders. They are not even speaking of leaving as they have analyzed the GOR and know better. They will remain silent and then will not be overly plain, that is until the mid 2030's when the ACC TV deal will be up for renewal. Only then will real action on the part of FSU occur.

And don't assume the B1G and SEC will be all peaches and cream as there are too many big dogs in each conference that don't like sharing power.

I think you need to post the actual situation once a page in this thread.

There is so much TV-lawyering commentary in this thread that it's kind of crazy.

In ten years, the media and college football (and overall sports) landscape will be vastly different.

 

[JimBoston]

It wouldn't surprise me if FSU, challenged the GORs as there is little downside. If they win, they can look for a new conference. If they lose, they remain in their current situation. The legal costs might be $2 to $4 million, but a challenge would energize their fanbase and FSU could tell them we tried to get out, but couldn't if they lose. Sure, ACC members would be upset, but wanting to leave the ACC has been telegraphed to everyone so it wouldn't be a surprise.

I don't think FSU would win a GOR lawsuit, but it will be interesting to see their legal argument to challenge the GORs.

 

[baggerbob]

But the payout would be double that $300m number people keep posting, which shows how wronf they are.

Why would any ACC school approve those schools leaving for half of what they old owe, currently.

Yes that number will decrease every year, but for them to make the move now, would cost them over a half billion dollars, not including legal fees.

So if those two leave, that would split $1B between the remaining ACC teams.

I'm no math major, but that's a lot of scratch

ESPN isn't going to pay FSU more money to go to the SEC, and the Big 10 isn't going to get more money to take them.

 

[CousCuse]

$300MM is barely the exit fee plus three years TV revenue. No ACC member nor ESPN will agree to such offer.

Let the FSU big mouths talk, ignore them. Pay attention to the FSU board and true leaders. They are not even speaking of leaving as they have analyzed the GOR and know better. They will remain silent and then will not be overly plain, that is until the mid 2030's when the ACC TV deal will be up for renewal. Only then will real action on the part of FSU occur.

And don't assume the B1G and SEC will be all peaches and cream as there are too many big dogs in each conference that don't like sharing power.

$300MM is barely the exit fee plus three years TV revenue. No ACC member nor ESPN will agree to such offer.

Let the FSU big mouths talk, ignore them. Pay attention to the FSU board and true leaders. They are not even speaking of leaving as they have analyzed the GOR and know better. They will remain silent and then will not be overly plain, that is until the mid 2030's when the ACC TV deal will be up for renewal. Only then will real action on the part of FSU occur.

And don't assume the B1G and SEC will be all peaches and cream as there are too many big dogs in each conference that don't like sharing power.

There is no way the FSU athletic department would be talking and acting like they are unless they have the support of the people that run the university.

 

[JimBoston]

ESPN isn't going to pay FSU more money to go to the SEC, and the Big 10 isn't going to get more money to take them.

It's simple math for ESPN. Would FSU playing an SEC schedule result in significantly higher ratings for ESPN to justify paying them more? FSU playing Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, Texas, Oklahoma, LSU,... vs their current schedule would produce higher ratings. (They already play Florida every year.)

 

[elimunelson]

It wouldn't surprise me if FSU, challenged the GORs as there is little downside. If they win, they can look for a new conference. If they lose, they remain in their current situation. The legal costs might be $2 to $4 million, but a challenge would energize their fanbase and FSU could tell them we tried to get out, but couldn't if they lose. Sure, ACC members would be upset, but wanting to leave the ACC has been telegraphed to everyone so it wouldn't be a surprise.

I don't think FSU would win a GOR lawsuit, but it will be interesting to see their legal argument to challenge the GORs.

they would also anger their conference, potential anger the politicians that are in surrounding states (which will matter if the ACC is truly destabilized).

It's not without downside. Oh and they'd have to coordinate with BIG/SEC about this plot and allow them to wait it out while the world blows up with their nuclear option. It would push alot of people to the center of the poker table.

That's a set of ballz if they decide that path

 

[elimunelson]

Sources: Big Ten has begun preliminary talks to potentially add Oregon, Washington, Cal and Stanford

The Big Ten has been reluctant to move to 20 teams, even if many in college athletics believe expansive superconferences are inevitable.

sports.yahoo.com

Those moron FSU fans should be happy to see this. The BIG will add those 4, the rest will go to the Big 12 and that'll be a wrap.

 

[elimunelson]

Only room left at the inn would be the SEC and I honestly don’t see them adding FSU or Clemson. I’m not even sure how adding those 4 teams wouldn’t dilute the payment amounts of the rest of the big ten.

if the BIG adds all those Pac schools the SEC can take their sweet time at this point anyway. I think we finally would have a 5 year plus breather of sorts for reallignment.

I would gather this lifeline would mean the remaining 4 schools get a smaller payday or even it's their opening to just pay out the members in a dynamic fashion. Ultimately Ohio St and Michigan aren't going to be cool with crappy Rutgers getting an equal share. May be 10 years away but the big brands within the big conf will want a bigger pound of flesh.

Ultimately we're going to get to the same place we were in like 1935. Big schools get most money again.

Where the heck is ALSACS? Mr. Reallignment took his ball and went home when 3 people disagreed with him?

 

[FreakTalksAboutSU]

It would be hilarious if somehow the Big 10 makes a western flank work financially when the ACC had that option all along and just sat idle.