ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[shandeezy7]

Pfft Syracuse has been there done that with local brewers.

Now, knowing how the school is with licensing and naming protection and rights, you would think they'd strike a deal with one of the local highly thought of brewers to produce and distribute to the school and surrounding areas a Syracuse themed beer they could sell in the Dome and on the quad on game days.

But, again, what do I know?

Stay tuned…

 

[Cuse181]

I'm confused.

I’m recognizing my use of hyperbole. UConn is a very bad option, adding SUNY Cortland is of course much worse but not a real option. Of the “real options” UConn is the worst, USF is a close second.

 

[Stevenson]

Announcing the new ACC Expansion Thread game. Take a drink every time you read one of the following:

- They don’t move the needle
- Football drives the bus
- When we get ND to join
- What about Uconn?

Bonus every time you read: Let’s just go back to the Big East.

Add in:
-communicating thru back channels
-lock up the (insert geographic region here)
-eyeballs
-ironclad

 

[Chris02M]

Add in:
-communicating thru back channels
-lock up the (insert geographic region here)
-eyeballs
-ironclad

and GOR

 

[SmilinBob]

and GOR

FSU/UNC/Clemson and NCS put an I in GOR.

 

[kcsu]

At this point who really cares if UConn DRINK or UCF DRINK ever join as I don't think any school with the exception of ND DRINK can move the needle DRINK. Thank God for the GOR DRINK and FSU DRINK

 

[Chris02M]

 

[Cuse1055]

Stay tuned…

Pretty sure I saw a new Syracuse-themed tailgating beer from a local brewery at Wegmans the other day.

 

[Jake]

The timing of that Big12 article screamed that it was a leverage leak. So we now know Silver’s info has to be taken w/a grain of salt. He was also pushing the hoops and football only migration. Adelson debunked that notion as well. Maybe Silver isn’t very good?!?! (or likely has a source with an agenda)

 

[CuseCactus]

Sort of on topic re making Syracuse as appealing as possible to the B10. Why is it - again - that the school lost its AAU status? Lack of $$? And how hard is it to regain?

 

[djorange1989]

UMass to the B1G.

Yeah right, like they will settle for anything other than the SEC

 

[Willy75]

In hoops they have some reach but Football they have little.

Let's see how they do in Football this season to get a feel if they are picking up fans.

For them it's a double edged sword. If they do halfway decent Mora leaves.

 

[pokercuse08]

I cannot read your link, I don’t have access.

I don't either, but I use archive.ph. ESPN profited by $3B in the first half of 2023, so they're on track for about a 30% decline from your numbers. That assumes their profit is ~equally spread over the year, but I don't know if that's the case and I'm going to be lazy and not dig into Disney's quarterlies from last year to find out. Based on the reporting, I think they're definitely declining and Disney is considering selling them.

 

[pokercuse08]

So the theory now is that the B18/SEC will shut out the merged ACC/B12 and the G5 from the playoffs? Why would the majority of schools in FBS agree to that? The only way the B18/SEC can close the playoffs is if they leave FBS, in which case who wins the #3 conference war is totally meaningless.

Once you analyze this from the standpoint that this is naked capitalism with no guardrails, it's the only thing that makes sense. If the B1G and SEC get to a point where they believe they can shut everyone else out and credibly claim the true national championship is from within their conferences, they will because they'll make more money. If the #3 conference has a handful of strong enough programs, then they can't credibly claim that and they probably won't do it. So, for example, if the ACC manages to keep FSU and Clemson, and grow SMU into a top 25 program and get another school or two into the top 25 on a rotating basis, they're pretty hard to shut out while still claiming to have a legit national championship. But if they get raided and lose their 5-7 best schools, it's pretty easy to shut them out.

It won't happen immediately, but if this process continues to play out unchecked and if the ACC and/or Big 12 don't make the right moves and get a little lucky, it'll happen. You just have to stop thinking about it in terms of what's best for the sport, the fans, the players, etc, and think of it from the standpoint of what makes the B1G and SEC the most money. It's obvious IMO that breaking away makes them more money, and it's blatantly obvious their guiding mindset is making the most money.

 

[TheCusian]

Once you analyze this from the standpoint that this is naked capitalism with no guardrails, it's the only thing that makes sense. If the B1G and SEC get to a point where they believe they can shut everyone else out and credibly claim the true national championship is from within their conferences, they will because they'll make more money. If the #3 conference has a handful of strong enough programs, then they can't credibly claim that and they probably won't do it. So, for example, if the ACC manages to keep FSU and Clemson, and grow SMU into a top 25 program and get another school or two into the top 25 on a rotating basis, they're pretty hard to shut out while still claiming to have a legit national championship. But if they get raided and lose their 5-7 best schools, it's pretty easy to shut them out.

It won't happen immediately, but if this process continues to play out unchecked and if the ACC and/or Big 12 don't make the right moves and get a little lucky, it'll happen. You just have to stop thinking about it in terms of what's best for the sport, the fans, the players, etc, and think of it from the standpoint of what makes the B1G and SEC the most money. It's obvious IMO that breaking away makes them more money, and it's blatantly obvious their guiding mindset is making the most money.

This assumes the liquidation of all but 2 conferences will result in growing audiences ($). It’s a hell of a bet.

 

[pokercuse08]

Pfft Syracuse has been there done that with local brewers.

Now, knowing how the school is with licensing and naming protection and rights, you would think they'd strike a deal with one of the local highly thought of brewers to produce and distribute to the school and surrounding areas a Syracuse themed beer they could sell in the Dome and on the quad on game days.

But, again, what do I know?

It's a travesty that there's not a licensed orange IPA for Syracuse. They should also have a 'Melo caramel stout and a Jim Brown ale. Those are the layups. Get something else named after Boeheim too. Maybe a sour beer?

 

[pokercuse08]

This assumes the liquidation of all but 2 conferences will result in growing audiences ($). It’s a hell of a bet.

I think there's a high likelihood it's a bad bet in the long run (over say 20-30 years), but this seems to be the bet those conferences and the TV/streaming companies are making. It'll likely make them the most money over the next decade, and they mostly care about the next year or two of quarterlies.

One way to think of it is that if you're a TV network you basically need games on Saturday at 12pm, 3:30pm, 7pm, 10pm EST. Then in a perfect world they'd get a Thursday and Friday night game.

So the most important thing for the networks is to have five or six nationally marketable games every week. Figure two networks/streaming companies - one for the SEC one for the B1G, so they want 10-12 premier games a week. So what makes them the most money nationally is having as many matchups as possible between the top 25-30 brands, and then letting the rest fall to their secondary networks.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Once you analyze this from the standpoint that this is naked capitalism with no guardrails, it's the only thing that makes sense. If the B1G and SEC get to a point where they believe they can shut everyone else out and credibly claim the true national championship is from within their conferences, they will because they'll make more money. If the #3 conference has a handful of strong enough programs, then they can't credibly claim that and they probably won't do it. So, for example, if the ACC manages to keep FSU and Clemson, and grow SMU into a top 25 program and get another school or two into the top 25 on a rotating basis, they're pretty hard to shut out while still claiming to have a legit national championship. But if they get raided and lose their 5-7 best schools, it's pretty easy to shut them out.

It won't happen immediately, but if this process continues to play out unchecked and if the ACC and/or Big 12 don't make the right moves and get a little lucky, it'll happen. You just have to stop thinking about it in terms of what's best for the sport, the fans, the players, etc, and think of it from the standpoint of what makes the B1G and SEC the most money. It's obvious IMO that breaking away makes them more money, and it's blatantly obvious their guiding mindset is making the most money.

Again you aren’t answering the question. What does it matter who is number 3 if the B18 and SEC break away?

If the B18 and SEC do not break away they have no control over shutting out others from the playoff as they are in the minority. They have to share unless they break away. So again #3 does not matter.

 

[NJCuse97]

Sort of on topic re making Syracuse as appealing as possible to the B10. Why is it - again - that the school lost its AAU status? Lack of $$? And how hard is it to regain?

I believe it boiled down to a lack of a med school. Membership requirements shifted focus on research spending being in a med school capacity.

 

[Orangezoo]

Again you aren’t answering the question. What does it matter who is number 3 if the B18 and SEC break away?

If the B18 and SEC do not break away they have no control over shutting out others from the playoff as they are in the minority. They have to share unless they break away. So again #3 does not matter.

Not to mention as money in the top two flattens or reduces over time as the consolidation pushes fans of cfb away- the distance between 2nd and third will shrink over time as well. You take a school like FSU who spends like a Beverly Hills trophy spouse- and bump against a Clemson who is a better program at the moment but spends with more caution and you see how it will come down to programs being better at running the business of athletics even more than the aggregate TV money.

 

[pokercuse08]

Again you aren’t answering the question. What does it matter who is number 3 if the B18 and SEC break away?

As I said, if the #3 conference has enough strong programs, the B1G and SEC won't be able to fully break away and legitimately claim a national champion. If the #3 conference does not have enough strong programs, then they will be able to fully break away and legitimately claim a national champion.

In the scenario where the Big 12 is the #3 conference, the ACC got raided to shreds and the Big 12 got the leftovers - hence it is not going to have any strong programs to interfere with the legitimacy of the B1G/SEC champion being the national champion. In a scenario where the ACC stays #3 it is possible that it will have enough good teams left to force its way in.

 

[pokercuse08]

Not to mention as money in the top two flattens or reduces over time as the consolidation pushes fans of cfb away- the distance between 2nd and third will shrink over time as well.

I don't think that's what's likely. The financial advantage up front is going to pull the top recruits into the B1G and SEC at an even higher rate than now, leaving the other conferences farther behind. This is likely to happen in basketball as well. This will be especially true if their breakaway includes an even more aggressive way to pay players than NIL.

If the consolidation pushes fans away over the following decade, it's probably going to push them away from the second tier as well, so it's not necessarily going to close the gap down it's just going to shrink the overall pie. If that happens it would probably eventually lead to the super conferences breaking up, or expanding to then divide into divisions and restore regionality.

 

[Trueblue25]

GOR’s saving us.

Hold ADJW and Dino accountable to do the one thing that’ll give us a better case if the ACC crumbles.

Win.

 

[Orangezoo]

I don't think that's what's likely. The financial advantage up front is going to pull the top recruits into the B1G and SEC at an even higher rate than now, leaving the other conferences farther behind. This is likely to happen in basketball as well. This will be especially true if their breakaway includes an even more aggressive way to pay players than NIL.

If the consolidation pushes fans away over the following decade, it's probably going to push them away from the second tier as well, so it's not necessarily going to close the gap down it's just going to shrink the overall pie. If that happens it would probably eventually lead to the super conferences breaking up, or expanding to then divide into divisions and restore regionality.

I think you are thinking about this too much in a vacuum vs out in the open marketplace. It's likely today that the payouts are too high and unsustainable. Then pair that with population demographics across the country. It's not so much an arithmetic calculation over time. It's not just fans of programs left out of the top tiers. Casual fans of the top tiers will also step away as it becomes the NFL B league and stick with following pro leagues.

College fb powers, unlike the pros, are not necessarily located in larger marketplaces. That matters when you are modeling this out over time. Plus some schools have a larger national alumni footprint in relationship to that etc.

 

[orange44]

GOR’s saving us.

Hold ADJW and Dino accountable to do the one thing that’ll give us a better case if the ACC crumbles.

Win.

This will certainly help!!