ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[kcsu]

Content matters to the networks. The ACC provides significant content for ESPN and I doubt that they want to lose that. Let's say that a few brands do leave. That the Big and SEC feel as if they are going to be accretive acquisitions which I find difficult given how much value they would have to bring in increased payments just to cover themselves. Regardless, some teams leave. I 100% see the ACC and possibly the Big 12 joining forces and the combined entity ending up with multiple bids to the Championship playoffs. While not as good as getting membership into the Big or Sec it would most likely provide Syracuse with the easiest path to the playoffs. SU will have a path to the playoffs when the dust settles which is what I want. We should have enough money to compete against the teams in our conference. 5 years is an eternity so let's focus on making our football and basketball teams as good as they can be, and I believe things will work out for SU.

 

[baggerbob]

I suspect we're not anywhere on the B1G's expansion target list at the moment. Possibly not ever.

Our future is likely to be in a weakened, reconfigured ACC or in a Big 12/gutted ACC mashup.

People have long wildly overrated our agency when it comes to conference realignment. We're basically along for the ride, subject to the whims of much bigger players.

If Notre Dame eventually decides to join the Big, they will probably take a couple of teams with them.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Having worked at a network, people on the Internet put far more thought into "owning" regions than the network folks do themselves.

In a world where cable subscriptions are plummeting, direct-to-consumer streaming is ascendent, and both ad sales and content distribution is national in scope, "owning" a region means very little.

I can assure you that every network and streamer is concerned about one thing, and one thing only: the economics of rights deals.

In that case wouldn't that make having a large BBall fanbase somewhat attractive? Those folks will buy a subscription October through March vs August through November for FB.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

We should have enough money to compete against the teams in our conference.

But we really won't. The B12 is full of Texas schools and State schools. The ACC has private schools and state schools who act more like private schools. We will be joining a bunch of VA Tech and Louisville like schools. Not a bunch of UNCs and GA Techs.

 

[AcAndAc]

But we really won't. The B12 is full of Texas schools and State schools. The ACC has private schools and state schools who act more like private schools. We will be joining a bunch of VA Tech and Louisville like schools. Not a bunch of UNCs and GA Techs.

In the end, Florida State does not really fit the ACC. I do not think it "acts like a private school" any more than NW/Vanderbilt act like public schools.

 

[AcAndAc]

If Notre Dame eventually decides to join the Big, they will probably take a couple of teams with them.

Not sure why the B1G would bother at that point. The goal would be to get ND, not ND and 1-3 little brothers.

 

[hoopsupstate]

We cannot even afford to pay the $20M annually to players without having to grovel to donors for $16.6M of it. Where are we coming up with $75M? Much less a greater amount to leave early? Meanwhile... the B1G does not want us or need us. If there was any semblance of that being untrue, we would know it by now.

They’ve found $143 million to buy property in the Marshall St. area. Well over assessed values.

 

[WoadBlue]

Dennis's Dodd's thoughts on ACC settlement

 

[syracuse95]

Let's say that a few brands do leave. That the Big and SEC feel as if they are going to be accretive acquisitions which I find difficult given how much value they would have to bring in increased payments just to cover themselves.

This is the part that I don't understand, although I admittedly know nothing about media rights deals. The projections are that the B1G is looking at over $130m/yr per school when their media rights get renegotiated in 2030. No disrespect to UNC, UVA, or Miami, I just don't see how they bring enough incremental value to justify the addition.

 

[AcAndAc]

Dennis's Dodd's thoughts on ACC settlement

Interesting take, similar to what I was saying above, only on a faster timeline. FSU/Clemson/ACC are creating an interesting path here.

 

[AcAndAc]

This is the part that I don't understand, although I admittedly know nothing about media rights deals. The projections are that the B1G is looking at over $130m/yr per school when their media rights get renegotiated in 2030. No disrespect to UNC, UVA, or Miami, I just don't see how they bring enough incremental value to justify the addition.

The interesting thing is that $130M per school means $2.3B or so. Of that, Ohio State might be worth $400M alone... and is running an A.D. deficit... all while Purdue and Rutgers can get the same share as them.

 

[JimBoston]

The P2 have added 1 private school since they were formed, USC by the Big 10. There would be a P2 spot for Notre Dame, but that is probably it although Stanford may have a shot. It seems the P2 has no interest in the Big 12 schools, so IF the P2 expands, it is coming from the ACC. If the P2 expands, Syracuse will end up being in a reconstituted ACC which isn't terrible.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The P2 have added 1 private school since they were formed, USC by the Big 10. There would be a P2 spot for Notre Dame, but that is probably it although Stanford may have a shot. It seems the P2 has no interest in the Big 12 schools, so IF the P2 expands, it is coming from the ACC. If the P2 expands, Syracuse will end up being in a reconstituted ACC which isn't terrible.

Miami has a shot. BYU might as well.

For the B12 I think KU and BYU are the best brands left. ASU is a big school in a big market. Utah and Colorado could be fillers. Arizona is a big BBall brand. These schools aren't really that much different than the ACC candidates.

 

[Scooch]

If Notre Dame eventually decides to join the Big, they will probably take a couple of teams with them.

First, ND football isn’t joining a conference . Second, if they joined for all other sports, why would they want to take anyone with them?

Putting aside that they won’t be in any position to dictate something like that. ND would have Rutgers, PSU, Maryland and likely Virginia in that conference. They’d have all the east coast exposure they’d need.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

In the end, Florida State does not really fit the ACC. I do not think it "acts like a private school" any more than NW/Vanderbilt act like public schools.

FSU, Clemson, VA Tech, NC State, Louisville don't really fit with the rest of the ACC.

The last 6 real FB seasons SU avg attendance is 12th out of the 17 ACC teams. If we were in the current B12 we would be 14th out of 17. So we would be even further down the chain. The 13 teams ahead of us all avg more than our new capacity. The B12 has bigger schools. It will be harder to overcome that vs the ACC.

Of the 3 private schools BYU is big and Baylor/TCU have Texas talent in their backyard. Now we wouldn't be the only ACC school to join the B12, which likely means we are even further down the chain and have even more programs to overcome.

Which is why I would prefer the ACC remain separate from the B12. As long as we have an auto bid to the playoff, we have a better chance at being successful even if it means less TV $. The problem is we would need the other left behind schools to agree with that outlook and stick together.

 

[AcAndAc]

FSU, Clemson, VA Tech, NC State, Louisville don't really fit with the rest of the ACC.

The last 6 real FB seasons SU avg attendance is 12th out of the 17 ACC teams. If we were in the current B12 we would be 14th out of 17. So we would be even further down the chain. The 13 teams ahead of us all avg more than our new capacity. The B12 has bigger schools. It will be harder to overcome that vs the ACC.

Of the 3 private schools BYU is big and Baylor/TCU have Texas talent in their backyard. Now we wouldn't be the only ACC school to join the B12, which likely means we are even further down the chain and have even more programs to overcome.

Which is why I would prefer the ACC remain separate from the B12. As long as we have an auto bid to the playoff, we have a better chance at being successful even if it means less TV $. The problem is we would need the other left behind schools to agree with that outlook and stick together.

Interesting data. Just looking at 5 year averages.

80k tier: Clemson
60K tier: FSU (surprisingly low average, really...65k over 5 years, 53 last year), Va Tech, BYU
50k tier: Iowa State, NC State, Texas Tech, TCU, Oklahoma St. Miami, WVU

Upper40k tier: Utah, Kansas St., UNC, Colorado, Louisville, ASU, Pitt
Lower40k tier: Baylor, TCU, Virginia, UCF, Utah, Cal (39.9K)
Upper 30k tier: Ga Tech, Syracuse, Cincy, BC, Stanford, Kansas, Wake (29.7k)
20k tier: Houston, Duke, SMU

Other than BYU, nobody in the B12 is THAT much ahead of us. We do not consider Va Tech out of our league. And they outdrew us by 26k last year and 24k average over 5 years.

FSU averaging 65k ... closer to Iowa/Arkansas than Ohio State/Alabama.

 

[TexanMark]

Several schools are redoing stadiums. More amenities and generally less seating capacity. We'll see where Cuse sits attendance wise in 5 years

 

[kcsu]

If Notre Dame eventually decides to join the Big, they will probably take a couple of teams with them.

ND has no reason to join any conference. They have a great set up. The new playoff situation is great for them. They have a nice path to get in, remain independent, rake in plenty of money, and have their other sports well positioned in the ACC. ND isn't going to join any conference unless it is the ONLY way they can play for a National Championship.

 

[storange]

Honestly could care less. Worrying about this crap is useless, I’ve been told we were done countless times since the late 90s . Maybe we are pockmarked for the new conf USA , I seriously don’t care , I’ll be in sect 333 until my age or health prohibits it.

 

[TerryD]

If Notre Dame eventually decides to join the Big, they will probably take a couple of teams with them.

ND is not going to join the Big Ten, but if it did, it would likely take Stanford with it.

 

[storange]

If Notre Dame eventually decides to join the Big, they will probably take a couple of teams with them.

Could care even less what ND is going to do !

 

[IthacaMatt]

The ACC was set to exist until 2036. This new agreement is till 2030. So how is that "saving" the ACC? It moved the doomsday clock up.

There are a couple problems here that nobody really says out loud.

ESPN seems to want to make the ACC fail as a major league. Sure, ESPN has budget concerns, loss of cable subscribers, etc., but is also looking at new revenue streams. ESPN made this mess for the ACC, like Notre Dame did to the Big East.

The Athletic's article made it sound like the Florida court was willing to move quickly, and refusal of the State Sup. Ct. to hear the ACC's appeal about venue kind of created more risk than they were willing to tolerate. They were afraid of losing, and felt it was a real risk.

I read that Grant of Rights a couple years ago. It's really short and to the point. At first I was surprised, but in my mind, I thought there was very little there to litigate about the language. I thought it was really well done actually; it's usually long complicated documents that leave holes to be interpreted. I thought the GoR was the apex of efficiency in how it was drafted.

 

[IthacaMatt]

I would be perfectly happy going back to the old Big East FB conference replacing Rutgers with UConn, Temple with Nova, and adding Army/Navy to get to 10 teams. Then to get to 10 for BBall have StJ/GTown.

The problem is...

-For FB you need access to the playoff. If that Big East had an auto bid, then we are all good. If not, then you need to be a Top 10 team and that isn't happening consistently without $.

-For BBall the access to the NCAAT is there. But how many bids would the Big East get without $? How far would Big East teams go in the NCAAT without $?

The SEC this year could potentially get 14 of 16 teams in the NCAAT. How did a conference that used to be UK and their little brothers get to be that good? The SEC hasn't won a title since 2012, and that is the only one since 2007. They haven't been to the Title game since 2014. In the last 25 NCAATs they have 3 combined titles. In the last 23 NCAATs they have only been to the title game 4 times. They got to where they are now because of $.

We can barely compete now. You want us to give up 2/3 of our revenue? We might as well play in the Patriot League. The Dome will never be full again, because we will never be relevant again.

 

[IthacaMatt]

We’re done being a player, it’s just a matter of time

We've got like 5 more years to win another title, make another big bowl, make another Final Four. Then it's up in the air.

I won't say "it's over" because I think government will get involved again, just like the did the first time we wanted to go to the ACC. Too many states are going to be left out in the cold.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Content matters to the networks. The ACC provides significant content for ESPN and I doubt that they want to lose that. Let's say that a few brands do leave. That the Big and SEC feel as if they are going to be accretive acquisitions which I find difficult given how much value they would have to bring in increased payments just to cover themselves. Regardless, some teams leave. I 100% see the ACC and possibly the Big 12 joining forces and the combined entity ending up with multiple bids to the Championship playoffs. While not as good as getting membership into the Big or Sec it would most likely provide Syracuse with the easiest path to the playoffs. SU will have a path to the playoffs when the dust settles which is what I want. We should have enough money to compete against the teams in our conference. 5 years is an eternity so let's focus on making our football and basketball teams as good as they can be, and I believe things will work out for SU.

Here's where women's sports might bail out the ACC. Women's sports are clearly gaining viewers, and it is a generational change. They don't want to lose that, and ACC women's hoops and soccer are still the best in the country.