ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[orangefog]

Remember that time we sued everyone because we didn't get in the ACC? I am feeling that you all didn't get that joke. We have a weird sense of humor, sorry. Can we join, please?

 

[Jake]

I’m sure the other members of the Big East are just thrilled to hear this.

 

[Hoo's That]

If we are looking at football brands, I think they below are the only ones left.

ACC- FSU, Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame
B12- BYU
P12- Oregon

Although you can argue that UNC's BBall brand is big enough to put them in the above group. I would be surprised if the ACC teams get left behind as they are always a threat to win a title. Maybe Oregon as well.


If we look at markets we can also add...

ACC- UNC and/or NC State, BC, SU, GA Tech, maybe UVA and/or VA Tech for DC
B12- UCF, Colorado, Houston, TCU
P12- Washington, Arizona State and/or Arizona, Cal and/or Stanford
AAC- USF, SMU, Rice, Temple

I think for sure UNC, GA Tech, and at least one of the VA schools will get added. The other ACCs have a chance. I think Colorado has a chance but not the other B12 schools. The P12s have a chance. The AACs are SOL, unless Rice gets a Hail Mary.


And if we look at fanbase size (teams that had 60k+ attendance in 2019 and/or 2022)...

ACC- Clemson, Notre Dame, FSU, VA Tech
P12- Washington

I think these teams are likely in.

Expanding to 55k...

ACC- NC State
B12- BYU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, West Virginia

I think these teams are likely left out.

And to 50k...

ACC- UNC, Miami, Pitt
B12- Oklahoma State, K State
P12- Oregon, Utah

I think UNC and Miami are in but the rest might be out.


I don't think there is a whole lot of movement left. There will be a battle for FSU, Clemson, and UNC. Any other teams that come along will be filler to get to a nice round number or to fill in regional gaps.

We need to hope that we make it as Northeastern filler. Otherwise we get left behind.

UVa is bigger draw in DC than VPI.

 

[hoopsupstate]

UConn brings nothing to the ACC, even less
Now then 10 years ago

Mens and women’s basketball are nothing to sneeze at.

 

[Scooch]

The UConn admin knows they're not joining a P5 conference anytime soon, if ever. They said as much recently.

UConn had 2 shots at being in the ACC.

First time was when we joined in 2013 (offered in 2011). It could have been SU and UConn, but the southern football schools wanted Pitt.

Second time was the bake-off between them and Louisville as Maryland left. I suspect UConn was a longshot, but their dreadful football profile at the time sure didn't help.

Basically, they were at least 20 years too late in upgrading their football to 1-A, and they've been paying for that ever since.

 

[All4SU]

I would like to announce that I am actively seeking membership at Augusta National.

 

[IraSez]

Here we go again! Just when you would hope this would be over.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Where are those schools going? I’m not sure the SEC wants them.

The SEC IMO would not take all 3 but might end up taking FSU and Clemson. They really are the only 2 football brands out there for the taking. They are too big to not be a thorn in the SEC's side. So might as well take them. I also think the B1G would have some interest in those 2, as well as Miami.

They killed off the B12 and P12. Why not kill off the ACC as well?

 

[sutomcat]

I would like to announce that I am actively seeking membership at Augusta National.

If you will support me, I will support you!

 

[Toga]

Apple in the lead for PAC rights? Streaming only?

 

[All4SU]

If you will support me, I will support you!

As long as the Governor of Georgia doesn’t step in at the last minute and screw this up, I think we’re good.

 

[TheCusian]

The SEC IMO would not take all 3 but might end up taking FSU and Clemson. They really are the only 2 football brands out there for the taking. They are too big to not be a thorn in the SEC's side. So might as well take them. I also think the B1G would have some interest in those 2, as well as Miami.

They killed off the B12 and P12. Why not kill off the ACC as well?

They water down the league -SEC has everything they want, outside of the gems of the B1G. They don’t need Florida or South Carolina

 

[elimunelson]

Where are those schools going? I’m not sure the SEC wants them.

if they don't go anywhere, then status quo for sure.

 

[hoopsupstate]

If they all go, the ACC conference champion still gets a top six placement in the playoffs. The Big 10 and SEC will all eat each other up. Clemson and FSU have a much better chance to make the playoffs in the ACC. Matter of fact, they both could make it.

 

[elimunelson]

FIFY.

Rutgers still leads in red ink over the last several decades and it will take decades to pay back what they they have stolen from taxpayers, students and from donors, if they can ever repay it. They have yet to break even and continuously extend their projected break even date into the future.

But that deal is going to be redone soon and they will get there sooner than later. Point is they have a massive cash flow coming in. They can amend and extend forever really. I’m sure at some point the BIG will refinance the debt because the underlying incoming cash is money good

 

[HRE Otto IV]

They water down the league -SEC has everything they want, outside of the gems of the B1G. They don’t need Florida or South Carolina

Clemson and FSU would not water down the SEC. But both in the SEC would water down those programs, which is the point. Eliminate threats. Also the B1G might decide to take them as well.

 

[TheCusian]

Clemson and FSU would not water down the SEC. But both in the SEC would water down those programs, which is the point. Eliminate threats. Also the B1G might decide to take them as well.

Eh, makes no sense.

The SEC schools would rather have the huge monetary advantage they currently have. They already think they’ve beaten them with money, no need to give them a lifeline. If adding those schools got them significantly more money per team (not sure they do) then maybe. But I think either conference poaching ACC schools is a bit “sky is falling”

 

[elimunelson]

Eh, makes no sense.

The SEC schools would rather have the huge monetary advantage they currently have. They already think they’ve beaten them with money, no need to give them a lifeline. If adding those schools got them significantly more money per team (not sure they do) then maybe. But I think either conference poaching ACC schools is a bit “sky is falling”

I agree but it's a bit myopic. At some point the ACC schools will be in play and SEC will decide if it makes sense to have them vs BIG. That's the decision really. Assuming we're in a 2 conference universe at that point monetarily speaking.

To my untrained eyes, SEC with Clemson/FSU/Miami inventory vs BIG being in their back yard matters financially.

 

[cusefan88]

To me, Clemson and FSU have a much easier path to the CFB in the ACC than the SEC. Is it worth the extra annual media rights $? We'll see.

 

[Scooch]

Apple in the lead for PAC rights? Streaming only?

I believe Apple would control the entirety of their media rights, and then may sublicense some games to a TV network.

Personally I think this would be a horrible move for the P12. I'm sure Apple can throw a lot of money at them, but the league's mass exposure would wither away. Diehards would buy Apple TV+, and the rest of America would largely forget about the conference, save for when they play OOC games.

It's one thing for the NFL to put one window on Amazon. It's quite another for a league to largely eschew traditional TV altogether.

 

[elimunelson]

I believe Apple would control the entirety of their media rights, and then may sublicense some games to a TV network.

Personally I think this would be a horrible move for the P12. I'm sure Apple can throw a lot of money at them, but the league's mass exposure would wither away. Diehards would buy Apple TV+, and the rest of America would largely forget about the conference, save for when they play OOC games.

It's one thing for the NFL to put one window on Amazon. It's quite another for a league to largely eschew traditional TV altogether.

UNLESS
UNLESS
UNLESS

(apple gets into the live tv game similar to YT Live/HULU).

I agree that the exposure is a bad thing for the PAC. But I feel like Apple has something up their sleeves with these MLS/MLB/Pac deals. Feel like they are becomig a defacto sports network similar to ESPN in 1979 with crappy wrestling and that weird start up called the Big East.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Saw a good point made about P12/Apple. If you are a non P5 team do you even schedule a P12 road game? A West coast trip is hard enough for the team. Then your fans cannot watch the game.

 

[CU44SE]

I will continue to post this. The ACC cannot let the Big 12 steal PAC schools. If schools jump to the Big 12 the ACC will become the 4th best conference. By keeping PAC schools away from Big 12, the ACC at least stays 3. A distant 3. But alive enough to possibly be in the ballpark. Need to unite the 2 coasts. You would control tv from sunup to after dark. You break the division (pods) into geographic and you rotate threw the pods.

 

[Acesn8s]

People way more qualified then us look at the value of each team and see what team brings enough value to expand, I’m guessing nobody in the current pac 12 add enough value for big 10 or SEC. That being said you would think the ACC needs to be proactive and see if you can poach 4 teams my guess would be Stanford, cal, Oregon and Washington to get the conference up around that 40 million plus per team range. Nothing this conference can do can get anywhere near the 70 million + the BIG and SEC get but maybe thinking outside the box and adding the right teams can close the gap a little.

 

[elimunelson]

People way more qualified then us look at the value of each team and see what team brings enough value to expand, I’m guessing nobody in the current pac 12 add enough value for big 10 or SEC. That being said you would think the ACC needs to be proactive and see if you can poach 4 teams my guess would be Stanford, cal, Oregon and Washington to get the conference up around that 40 million plus per team range. Nothing this conference can do can get anywhere near the 70 million + the BIG and SEC get but maybe thinking outside the box and adding the right teams can close the gap a little.

I think the expansion of the playoff will be fascinating on a "it's easier to make the playoff in the ACC but you're much poorer doing so being there vs SEC/BIG" scale.

Not sure how that plays out ultimately. Just an interesting subplot to teams looking to leave for the SEC when the GOR is less powerful.