ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[Hoo's That]

 

[Hoo's That]

I agree. I was going to say that neither SMU nor San Diego State have the name recognition of UNLV, but for fans of football history, SMU will always have a place in our hearts as the last team to receive the death penalty.

I understand the who "Southern California" allure of San Diego State, but if professional sports are any indication, San Diego does not create the SoCal value. Both the Clippers and the Chargers went from San Diego to LA to become second rated tenant in their arena/stadium. Similar to when my cousin told me how much loved living in California, you can be technically correct without really being correct. Technically my cousin does live in California because he lives in Bakersfield, just like San Diego is technically in Southern California. The reality, however, is when most people from other regions of the country think of California (and probably many that live in California), they do not think of Bakersfield. Similarly, when people hear "Southern California," they think more about LA and than San Diego.

The problem for the Pac is geography, which limits their options. With Houston bouncing to the XII, the AAC teams that might fit would be SMU and, if we pushed it, Tulane (who I have always hoped would join the ACC because I want to go to a road game in New Orleans), The other radiable conference close by would be the MWC. I think two of UNLV, Boise State, or Nevada would make the most sense as I assume the Pac does not want to add a team from a state other than California that already has a conference member.

The Chargers actually went from LA to SD and then back to LA. The big bone of contention was who was going to pay for their new stadium in downtown SD. The voters in a referendum said the Chargers were and the Chargers said "Buh-bye".

San Diego voters overwhelmingly reject Chargers stadium plan

After 55 years, the team's future in San Diego is in doubt

www.usatoday.com

 

[Hoo's That]

Brand and size of fan base > physical market. Which is why UTSA IMO makes more sense. Or UTSA and SMU.

Recruits have a choice of SEC or B12. The P12 will get 3rd lick. Is that really worth it?

The thing that makes the PAC-12 unattractive to Texas schools is that most games will be 2 time zones away.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I'd say SDSU is a shoe in. SMU is likely too. Colorado St. is the dark horse IMHO. UNLV is 4th.

IMO one team from Texas isn't enough to really penetrate the TV or recruiting market. Especially when that one team is right now the 7th best football brand in the state, is a small private school with a small stadium, and yearly don't even get 25k in attendance.

I think they should take two teams form Texas or no teams. You can go to 14 in the conference. Decide between Boise, Fresno, Colorado State, or UNLV.

And if you are going to only take one team, why take SMU over UTSA? Bigger stadium, more students and potential fanbase size. Yes, they were only in CUSA but they were 23-5 the last 2 years. Oh and they averaged 4k more per home game last season and 3500 more the prior season than SMU. If you are looking at long term potential UTSA IMO is by far the better choice.

 

[TexanMark]

Sal...I heard the PAC12 needs to get to 12 teams to maximize payment. The teams are almost inconsequential. I bet SMU was first due to academics, deep pocketed boosters and a huge airport. UTSA is Fresno St in a better location and better stadium.

 

[Moontan]

UTSA is Fresno St in a better location and better stadium.

It would also mean the end to SU's current claim of being the only P5 program with a domed stadium.
Of course, they could tweak it to say the only program with an on-campus domed stadium.

 

[UpstateSM]

He’s trustworthy

 

[djorange1989]

He’s trustworthy

Even if they are, sure as hell doesn’t mean they would be accepted. Syracuse can pursue SEC membership

 

[elimunelson]

Even if they are, sure as hell doesn’t mean they would be accepted. Syracuse can pursue SEC membership

Taking off “this isn’t good for bc or Syracuse” self interest goggles.

Is it good for the rest of the ACC and does it prevent anything else. My guess is no and probably not. Only theory that works is if the ACC ultimately sees FSU, Miami and Clemson gone and they can retain rest of Carolina schools then it may make sense to reconstitute into old school ACC and old school big east

 

[OrangeXtreme]

He’s trustworthy

I'm actively pursuing Mariska Hargitay.

 

[phreddie]

He’s trustworthy

Didn't they just basically beg to get back into the BE just a couple of years ago? I'd say I find this hard to believe, but then again it is uconn.

 

[NYCCuse826]

I'm actively pursuing Mariska Hargitay.

SVU seasons 1-6 Mariska >

 

[Orangezoo]

This

UConn is an insurance policy. You keep them engaged. Doesn't mean for sure they are going to be invited. No one else is coming for them due to geography. On the P2 front: Syracuse is somewhat in this situation but at least we are connective to the B1G and in the P5.

If FSU and or Clemson bolt the ACC in 10-12 years, others will try to reconstitute some. I could see a play for WVU, Cincy, UConn, UCF, USF. Not all but some. The remaining schools will need realize they won't catch the Big 2 until some radical happens.

Can they keep the ACC together? I think UNC and UVA still love the control they have on the ACC and will stay. It is bad enough having Yankee underlings in the conference but I don't see them joining the B1G.

One final thought (and remember the ACC is usually quiet) they might figure their best play right now is to create a national ACC (All Coasts Conference).

4 mini-conferences (mc) of 5? Or 4 mc of 6?
If they did this then the PAC10 teams are in play. Obviously the best of the rest too that aren't tied to GORs also.

What does it mean? Until greed is in check and controlled, I see conferences continue to eat and churn each other. And remember unintended consequences will be be deliciously ironic to the P2 or the P3.

Is UConn still struggling financially? Curious on where they are on the desperation scale.

 

[TexanMark]

Didn't they just basically beg to get back into the BE just a couple of years ago? I'd say I find this hard to believe, but then again it is uconn.

Remember the daily rumors they generated about a pending B1G invite?

They are faking it until they make it.

The problem is their FB team is still trying to elevate. The good news is Mora could get them to a Top 50 power wise if all goes right.

 

[kcsu]

Pipe dream

 

[orange79]

He’s trustworthy

"Actively pursuing..." lol

Does UConn bring enough to the table to increase everyone's share with a membership-change look-in with its TV partners? I highly doubt it.

 

[TexanMark]

Is UConn still struggling financially? Curious on where they are on the desperation scale.

Tax and spend, baby!

 

[Orangezoo]

Tax and spend, baby!

I'm sure there is a clause where that pays Randy too.

 

[sutomcat]

Tax and spend, baby!

What did they lose last year, $53 million?

For years, UConn has vowed to reduce its athletic department deficit. So why is it now larger than ever?

Why have years of promises to reduce UConn's athletic department subsidy have proven so difficult to keep? Here are just a few of the reasons.

www.ctinsider.com

Things are not good.

 

[elimunelson]

What did they lose last year, $53 million?

For years, UConn has vowed to reduce its athletic department deficit. So why is it now larger than ever?

Why have years of promises to reduce UConn's athletic department subsidy have proven so difficult to keep? Here are just a few of the reasons.

www.ctinsider.com

Things are not good.

I don't get phased by Athletic Dept spending or budgets. Maryland, Rutgers had massive financial issues too until they were saved by the BIG.

UConn would be in good shape if they were sent a life preserver. I think everyone on this site is very myopic when it comes to what is good for Syracuse vs what is good for the ACC. Ultimately what's good for ACC is existence. Not sure that occurs absent some forward thinking. That may, not saying it's definite, involve an invite to UConn down the line. Not sure why that is crazy thinking. For us geographically I think it's a home run. Competitively it will sting but I look at us existing as a simple existential situation when the ACC is purged (and will be when the GoR is more toothless than now).

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Amazingly the ACC hasn't been raided yet of its football brands. The B12 and P12 have little left.

B12
Lost- A&M, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas
Remaining- BYU

P12
Lost- UCLA, USC
Remaining- Oregon

 

[elimunelson]

Long term Miami, FSU, GA Tech, Clemson, UNC, UVA, VA Tech aren't likely going to be in the ACC. At that point I want a clean break from the leftovers. No reason to be in a conference with what's leftover from NC State, Duke, Wake, Louisville. Adding UConn to the ACC does nothing to change that.

i mean at some point we'll have to be with someone?!!?

If the world blows up reallignment wise, i'd rather be back with geographical friends than a frankensteinian group of freak schools that have no relationship to Syracuse

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If we are looking at football brands, I think they below are the only ones left.

ACC- FSU, Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame
B12- BYU
P12- Oregon

Although you can argue that UNC's BBall brand is big enough to put them in the above group. I would be surprised if the ACC teams get left behind as they are always a threat to win a title. Maybe Oregon as well.


If we look at markets we can also add...

ACC- UNC and/or NC State, BC, SU, GA Tech, maybe UVA and/or VA Tech for DC
B12- UCF, Colorado, Houston, TCU
P12- Washington, Arizona State and/or Arizona, Cal and/or Stanford
AAC- USF, SMU, Rice, Temple

I think for sure UNC, GA Tech, and at least one of the VA schools will get added. The other ACCs have a chance. I think Colorado has a chance but not the other B12 schools. The P12s have a chance. The AACs are SOL, unless Rice gets a Hail Mary.


And if we look at fanbase size (teams that had 60k+ attendance in 2019 and/or 2022)...

ACC- Clemson, Notre Dame, FSU, VA Tech
P12- Washington

I think these teams are likely in.

Expanding to 55k...

ACC- NC State
B12- BYU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, West Virginia

I think these teams are likely left out.

And to 50k...

ACC- UNC, Miami, Pitt
B12- Oklahoma State, K State
P12- Oregon, Utah

I think UNC and Miami are in but the rest might be out.


I don't think there is a whole lot of movement left. There will be a battle for FSU, Clemson, and UNC. Any other teams that come along will be filler to get to a nice round number or to fill in regional gaps.

We need to hope that we make it as Northeastern filler. Otherwise we get left behind.

 

[baggerbob]

I agree. That was my point. Adding UConn anytime soon doesn't make it less Frankensteiny. If we get left behind I rather be in a conference with BC, UConn, Temple, Pitt, West Virginia, VA Tech (outside shot they don't get saved) and without Duke, Wake, Louisville, or a national B12.

The football schools should have broken away from the Big East in the 90's when Miami, Virginia Tech, and Syracuse were good. Could have had Miami, Virginia Tech, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Syracuse, Rutgers, Connecticut, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame.
Would have been better in football and basketball then the ACC. Then we could have been the league adding teams.
Florida St, and Clemson could have been added from the ACC.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

If we are looking at football brands, I think they below are the only ones left.

ACC- FSU, Clemson, Miami, Notre Dame
B12- BYU
P12- Oregon

Although you can argue that UNC's BBall brand is big enough to put them in the above group. I would be surprised if the ACC teams get left behind as they are always a threat to win a title. Maybe Oregon as well.


If we look at markets we can also add...

ACC- UNC and/or NC State, BC, SU, GA Tech, maybe UVA and/or VA Tech for DC
B12- UCF, Colorado, Houston, TCU
P12- Washington, Arizona State and/or Arizona, Cal and/or Stanford
AAC- USF, SMU, Rice, Temple

I think for sure UNC, GA Tech, and at least one of the VA schools will get added. The other ACCs have a chance. I think Colorado has a chance but not the other B12 schools. The P12s have a chance. The AACs are SOL, unless Rice gets a Hail Mary.


And if we look at fanbase size (teams that had 60k+ attendance in 2019 and/or 2022)...

ACC- Clemson, Notre Dame, FSU, VA Tech
P12- Washington

I think these teams are likely in.

Expanding to 55k...

ACC- NC State
B12- BYU, Iowa State, Texas Tech, West Virginia

I think these teams are likely left out.

And to 50k...

ACC- UNC, Miami, Pitt
B12- Oklahoma State, K State
P12- Oregon, Utah

I think UNC and Miami are in but the rest might be out.


I don't think there is a whole lot of movement left. There will be a battle for FSU, Clemson, and UNC. Any other teams that come along will be filler to get to a nice round number or to fill in regional gaps.

We need to hope that we make it as Northeastern filler. Otherwise we get left behind.

Updating for 2021, 2018, and 2017 attendance...

ACC- Miami hit 60k, Louisville hit 50k
B12- BYU and Iowa State hit 60k, Oklahoma State hit 55k
P12- Oregon hit 55k, Arizona State hit 50k

So that covers the last 5 real seasons. Not much of a change.