ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HRE Otto IV]

Life after an ACC raid:

With all this speculation about whether the ACC will be raided, or even gutted, I still think the remnants of the ACC will continue on as the ACC as an all-sports conference.

The most likely not to be invited into the Big2 in order:
Wake
BC
SU
Louisville
Duke
Pitt
NC State
VaTech
Next Tier: UVA, GaTech

I believe there is a decent chance that as many as 10 ACC schools will remain, although possibly not the precise list above.

One question is, would a remnant ACC be better for each ACC school than joining the Franken Big 12? Louisville, for example.

Another is, would a remnant ACC be a better fit for some current Big 12 schools? WVU, UCF, Cincinnati for example.

One lesson from the old Big East is, having 7 or 8 schools in close geographic proximity is all that is required for an athletic conference. The Big East was never so intense and such a TV spectacle as when there were only 7 to 9 schools (playing both home and away in basketball). Over bloating a conference without any big names in it only dilutes the TV revenue. That is the Big 12 if ACC schools join them.

Looking at the earlier post above about the current conferences, a couple schools stick out as poor fits in their conferences: WVU and Temple. The remnant ACC could surely attract them, and UConn (who has no home for their football program). So even if the ACC only had say just 5 surviving members, getting to 7 or 8 is very achievable. I'd expect the ACC would go after UCF and Cincinnati as well. The attraction is the path for getting into the football playoffs, and less travel for their non-football sports compared to the Big 12.

Also, I would expect the remnant ACC to merge with the remnant Pac12 for football only. This would be a way to have more of a national draw for TV viewers for football, which both remnant conferences would be looking for.

Who knows what ND would do, but it is also possible they would want to continue to be hybrid ACC for their non-football sports, and be willing to continue to play 5 games a year vs the Pac/ACC FB members. Who cares, really. I'm not concerned about them.

The earlier and more teams that leave the ACC, the more it makes sense for the left behinds to band together and split the exit fees. If let's say SU, Pitt, BC, Duke, Wake were left it makes more sense to split the 9 exit fees then to go to the B12.

What is better...

-having $150M now each from exit fees, getting $10M a year from TV, having lower travel costs, having greater access to the CFB Playoff, splitting playoff money and NCAAT credits 10 ways vs 20 ways, being regional, being more competitive, playing historical opponents, playing round robin schedules, which all likely mean higher attendance and ticket revenue

or

getting $30M a year from TV

I think financially the next dozen or so years you are better off in the ACC. Past that it might be better to be in the B12 but both our FB and BBall programs would get lost in the shuffle. Are we playing sports to be competitive or to maximize profits?

I rather win a watered down ACC FB CG once a decade then have a 7-5 season in the B12 be seen as a great season. I rather make the NCAAT playing Northeastern BBall opponents than being a bubble team every year in the B12 playing a national schedule. What good is $20M more a year from TV if it doesn't make you any better and you play in a 2nd tier B12 conference?

I would be perfectly happy playing...

FB Home 4 year cycle (road is the opposite)
Year 1 Notre Dame, Nova, BC, Army, Duke
Year 2 USF, Pitt, UConn, Navy, Wake
Year 3 B16/SEC/B12 team, Nova, BC, Army, Duke
Year 4 USF, Pitt, UConn, Navy, Wake

Those road games are all easy to get to and are attractive locations. USF and Pitt would be big home games as those would be the primary challengers to the ACC CG. IMO in time I would expect the ACC CG to be USF three quarters of the time, Pitt half the time, SU a quarter of the time, and the other seven schools combined half the time.

BBall Home and Road every year
Notre Dame, USF, Nova, Pitt, BC, UConn, St Johns, Georgetown, Duke, Wake

That is a great home conference schedule. You have road games in Tampa, Philly, Boston, NYC, DC, and at Cameron. Plus the ACCT in MSG. Which is nearly perfect.

 

[kcsu]

The ACC is in a solid third place and will remain there if they can keep it together. The eyeballs are all moving to our league as the population moves to the eastern seaboard. the extension of the commissioner is also a good sign and i fully expect the ACC and Pac to at a minimum announce cross conf games that will generate extra revenue. ND is going anywhere they will stay with the ACC deal now that they have a clear path to make the playoffs as an Indy. I actually think we are in good shape and if ESPN is as smart as they seem to be they will provide bumps to keep us in a solid third spot.

 

[TexanMark]

Hey if Swaim says it’s true.. just one question: who the fluck is Swaim?

He was the guy that was wrong 10 years ago...

 

[Orangefizz]

I predict there will eventually be three national conferences. The Big Ten with 24 teams, the SEC with 20 teams and a third conference with 24 teams. We’d be in the leftover Conference but with regional rivalries and national scope
Nations East
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF

Nations Plains
Iowa St
Kansas
Kansas St
Oklahoma St
Houston
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech

Nations West
BYU
Utah
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona St
San Diego St
Oregon St
Washington St

 

[djorange1989]

I predict there will eventually be three national conferences. The Big Ten with 24 teams, the SEC with 20 teams and a third conference with 24 teams. We’d be in the leftover Conference but with regional rivalries and national scope
Nations East
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF

Nations Plains
Iowa St
Kansas
Kansas St
Oklahoma St
Houston
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech

Nations West
BYU
Utah
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona St
San Diego St
Oregon St
Washington St

Agree with this 100%, makes complete sense based on where things stand are where they are going

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I predict there will eventually be three national conferences. The Big Ten with 24 teams, the SEC with 20 teams and a third conference with 24 teams. We’d be in the leftover Conference but with regional rivalries and national scope
Nations East
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF

Nations Plains
Iowa St
Kansas
Kansas St
Oklahoma St
Houston
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech

Nations West
BYU
Utah
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona St
San Diego St
Oregon St
Washington St

Either the B16 or SEC will take Kansas. K State and Okie State have chances of making the SEC. I do think BC and SU have a chance at both the B16 and SEC. I can't see the states of Utah, Colorado, and Arizona being left behind by the B16 or SEC. I think both want Colorado. I think the B1G would like Utah and Arizona. The SEC would like ASU and BYU. And San Diego St has a chance at the SEC.

There still might be three national conferences, but I think the makeup will be different than what you have.

 

[Orangefizz]

Either the B16 or SEC will take Kansas. K State and Okie State have chances of making the SEC. I do think BC and SU have a chance at both the B16 and SEC. I can't see the states of Utah, Colorado, and Arizona being left behind by the B16 or SEC. I think both want Colorado. I think the B1G would like Utah and Arizona. The SEC would like ASU and BYU. And San Diego St has a chance at the SEC.

There still might be three national conferences, but I think the makeup will be different than what you have.

Here’s how I see the Big 10 and SEC shaping up.
B1G 10
Notre Dame

Rutgers
Ohio St
Michigan
Michigan St
Indiana
Purdue

Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Illinois

Penn St
Maryland
Virginia
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Miami

USC
UCLA
Stanford
California
Oregon
Washington

SEC
Florida
Florida St
Georgia
South Carolina
Clemson
NC State
Kentucky
Virginia Tech
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

SEC WEST
Auburn
Alabama
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
LSU
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Here’s how I see the Big 10 and SEC shaping up.
B1G 10
Notre Dame

Rutgers
Ohio St
Michigan
Michigan St
Indiana
Purdue

Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Illinois

Penn St
Maryland
Virginia
North Carolina
Georgia Tech
Miami

USC
UCLA
Stanford
California
Oregon
Washington

SEC
Florida
Florida St
Georgia
South Carolina
Clemson
NC State
Kentucky
Virginia Tech
Tennessee
Vanderbilt

SEC WEST
Auburn
Alabama
Ole Miss
Mississippi St
LSU
Arkansas
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas
Texas A&M

The B16 isn't taking ND as all but FB. So your B1G needs 3 more teams (hello BC, SU, Duke).

Where is Duke in your scenario? At worst they would make the B12.

Why would the B16 not go for any of Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona?

Why would the SEC not go for Kansas (or K State), Colorado, BYU, Arizona State, San Diego State?

Heck Cincy and Pitt would be SEC candidates as well.

 

[Orangefizz]

The B16 isn't taking ND as all but FB. So your B1G needs 3 more teams (hello BC, SU, Duke).

Where is Duke in your scenario? At worst they would make the B12.

Why would the B16 not go for any of Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona?

Why would the SEC not go for Kansas (or K State), Colorado, BYU, Arizona State, San Diego State?

Heck Cincy and Pitt would be SEC candidates as well.

BC CUSE DUKE won’t make the cut in an expanded BIG imo.

I can honestly see Duke going to the IVY League.

could see a scenario where the SEC expands WEST to 24 teams adding KU CU ASU Arizona.

Big 16 Conference

East
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF

West
Iowa St
Kansas St
Oklahoma St
Houston
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
BYU

 

[HRE Otto IV]

BC CUSE DUKE won’t make the cut in an expanded BIG imo.

I can honestly see Duke going to the IVY League.

could see a scenario where the SEC expands WEST to 24 teams adding KU CU ASU Arizona.

Big 16 Conference

East
Boston College
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
West Virginia
Louisville
Cincinnati
Memphis
UCF

West
Iowa St
Kansas St
Oklahoma St
Houston
Baylor
TCU
Texas Tech
BYU

The B16 isn't likely to stop at 25. It is possible if they go 5 divisions of 5, but ideally you have an even number of teams. With 26 you cannot divide. Most likely you see 28 teams so three teams from BC, SU, Duke, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona will make it (or they can take all 7 to get to 32). This is assuming they cannot poach Mizzou or Vandy.

 

[Orangefizz]

The B16 isn't likely to stop at 25. It is possible if they go 5 divisions of 5, but ideally you have an even number of teams. With 26 you cannot divide. Most likely you see 28 teams so three teams from BC, SU, Duke, Kansas, Colorado, Utah, Arizona will make it (or they can take all 7 to get to 32). This is assuming they cannot poach Mizzou or Vandy.

I know this is Syracuse board and I’ve been a fan since 1975, but I honestly don’t think Syracuse has a chance in hell at an expanded Big Ten conference

 

[djorange1989]

I know this is Syracuse board and I’ve been a fan since 1975, but I honestly don’t think Syracuse has a chance in hell at an expanded Big Ten conference

I agree, I think the Big 12 is the only realistic one and I do not believe for a minute that we would get shut out of that conference, we will have a Power conference home. Yes we are not NYC technically but we are NY/Northeast and I think the Big 12 would love to add that footprint.

 

[Orangefizz]

I agree, I think the Big 12 is the only realistic one and I do not believe for a minute that we would get shut out of that conference, we will have a Power conference home. Yes we are not NYC technically but we are NY/Northeast and I think the Big 12 would love to add that footprint.

Yes I agree:

BC Cuse UCONN Pitt WV CINCY VILLE UCF USF
wouldn’t be bad and regional rivalries could form. Don’t think Cuse falls below this level of competition in any realistic doomsday scenery where their are only 2 super conferences

 

[HtownOrange]

You mean as to why it's closer to the MWC? That's just a general statement of public perception. It's clearly below the SEC and the B1G and if the Big12 can add some of the large state schools from the PAC, then they would be the number 3 conference. A large number of schools want out of the ACC and are actively scheming to that end, that is not good.

Perception means nothing. Facts mean everything. China is “perceived” to be in the driver’s seat in world power yet 90%+ of all trades are in the dollar. Sure, hypothetically, it could surpass the dollar in 4-5 decades, but that assumes continued growth, which isn’t happening. China is losing population (Covid, overestimation to begin with, 4 decades of the one child policy and killing off female children, etc.).
China’s military is not ready nor as advanced as advertised, they can’t take on the U.S., especially with allies. So much for perception.

The ACC has the largest population in its footprint, that may change due to expansion but it continues to grow faster than the other footprints.
ESPN owns the other half of the ACCN and the SECN, there is no incentive to destroy nor profit center to benefit the other minimally.
FSU and Clemson can cry all they want, both know they will but also-rans in giant conferences that have only focused on high level teams. Likewise, UNC will not like another conference where they will be the new guy and not hold sway. Even $50MM in conference revenue is not much when you look at their university budget. Besides, the B1G inflates their payout by paying into the payout pot with one-half of the gate revenue to be shared equally. You, you guessed it! Rutgers has no fans, the B1G completely subsidizes the Raritan Knights in Red, which is why they have not yet fully bought into the BTN.
Nobody on the east coast cares about late games on the west coast, I am not sure how they are magically valued more than eastern teams, especially now that they lost the two most important teams and market. But isn’t that why I asked for analysis?

Please provide substantive support for your claims, not perception or “common knowledge” or message board banter. Real facts, real data.

 

[Hoo's That]

The logic makes no sense. Why would the SEC not want into NC and VA? I do think if UNC accepts a B16 invite Duke goes also. B16 does care somewhat about academic value and BBall brand of Duke. I think SU, BC, and maybe Pitt will end up going along with ND. Whether that is B1G, SEC, B12, or a revamped ACC. Wake would need to pray that the ACC stays together.

If we don't get a B16 or SEC invite I prefer seeing us in the below ACC.

FB: SU, BC, Pitt, Duke, Wake, USF, Nova, UConn, Army, Navy
BBall: SU, BC, Pitt, Duke, Wake, USF, Nova, UConn, St Johns, Georgetown

We could make the FB playoffs in that conference. I think NET (TV money, ticket sales, travel costs, ACC exit fees, ACC BBall credits, CFB Playoff split) would be basically the same in this ACC vs in a Franken B12.

The B1G already has a small private school with a limited fanbase in NWern, they don't want another. Football drives the bus, not basketball. The difference ND is paid in comparison to the ACC schools that. play football in the conference is testament to that. Duke is not going to be DUKE in the future. The are going to still be very good, but not the monster they were. K is gone and Scheyer will be on a much shorter leash than K was at the end, with a lot less freedom than K got in recruiting..

 

[orangefog]

The B1G already has a small private school with a limited fanbase in NWern, they don't want another. Football drives the bus, not basketball. The difference ND is paid in comparison to the ACC schools that. play football in the conference is testament to that. Duke is not going to be DUKE in the future. The are going to still be very good, but not the monster they were. K is gone and Scheyer will be on a much shorter leash than K was at the end, with a lot less freedom K got in recruiting..

K got freedom in recruiting? Whatever do you mean?

 

[Hoo's That]

K got freedom in recruiting? Whatever do you mean?

The one and dones like Zion Williamson and Justise Winslow. Most of them were nowhere near up-to-snuff academically compared the the players who stayed for 2 or more years. The classic joke down this way was that when Duke played North Carolina Central it was an intrasquad game for NCCU because of how dependent the Duke OADs were on the course they took there to stay eligible. Full time status is 12 credits. The OADs would take 9 credits of gut courses at Duke plus 3 credits at NCCU under the consortium agreement between Duke, NCCU, and UNC;, pass those (so now they're eligible to play in the spring); sign up for the same assortment of courses in the spring semeste;, and then not go to class (because they didn't have to).

What I think will happen in the future is that some players who would have been prime recruits under K won't be approached by Scheyer. They won't turn Duke down and Duke won't visibly turn them down. They simply won't be recruited by Scheyer. The excuse of "We're such a young team" will go away because more of their players will be around for 3 or 4 years.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The B1G already has a small private school with a limited fanbase in NWern, they don't want another. Football drives the bus, not basketball. The difference ND is paid in comparison to the ACC schools that. play football in the conference is testament to that. Duke is not going to be DUKE in the future. The are going to still be very good, but not the monster they were. K is gone and Scheyer will be on a much shorter leash than K was at the end, with a lot less freedom than K got in recruiting..

1. you need ditch diggers in FB
2. they will have a great BBall brand
3. academics

The B16 has already proven it is NOT all about FB for them.

 

[Hoo's That]

1. you need ditch diggers in FB
2. they will have a great BBall brand
3. academics

The B16 has already proven it is NOT all about FB for them.

They'd get plenty enough academics with the rumored UVa, UNC, and Ga Tech. Miami is not Duke academically, but they're not half-bad. Duke does not bring eyeballs to TV screens. Duke has a small alumni base and few fans, while Miami has the same small alumni base and a heckUVa lot more fans in South Florida. They've already got football ditchdiggers.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

They'd get plenty enough academics with the rumored UVa, UNC, and Ga Tech. Miami is not Duke academically, but they're not half-bad. Duke does not bring eyeballs to TV screens. Duke has a small alumni base and few fans, while Miami has the same small alumni base and a heckUVa lot more fans in South Florida. They've already got football ditchdiggers.

If the B16 did expand that large, they either need to leave a team out (like Cal who is even worse than Duke), or add three more teams. If you need filler schools then Duke makes sense. It also would help entice UNC and to a lessor extent ND.

 

[baggerbob]

They'd get plenty enough academics with the rumored UVa, UNC, and Ga Tech. Miami is not Duke academically, but they're not half-bad. Duke does not bring eyeballs to TV screens. Duke has a small alumni base and few fans, while Miami has the same small alumni base and a heckUVa lot more fans in South Florida. They've already got football ditchdiggers.

When and if Notre Dame decides to join the Big, they will select the schools they want to come with them.
To get them in the league is worth adding whoever they want, and they have played basketball and all sports for years with Pitt, Syracuse, and Boston College.

 

[gmoney44]

When and if Notre Dame decides to join the Big, they will select the schools they want to come with them.
To get them in the league is worth adding whoever they want, and they have played basketball and all sports for years with Pitt, Syracuse, and Boston College.

ND doesn’t give a shyte about BC and they give even less for SU and Pitt.

 

[Hoo's That]

When and if Notre Dame decides to join the Big, they will select the schools they want to come with them.
To get them in the league is worth adding whoever they want, and they have played basketball and all sports for years with Pitt, Syracuse, and Boston College.

Today, it's hard to see a scenario in which ND decides to join the B1G. They are more than content in trading topping out in the 5 v. 12 game for their independence. They are leaving money on the table already, because, IIRC, their NBC plus ACC payouts added together are less than what full ACC members get. They consider themselves a coastal school, rather than a Midwest school, because most of their alums are on the coasts and in Chicago and not scattered around Iowa, Wisconsin, or even Indiana. Their fans absolutely detest the fact that their hockey team has to play in the B1G (and wear the B1G logo) because of the regionalization mandate of the NCAA (they formerly played in Hockey East).

ND doesn’t give a shyte about BC and they give even less for SU and Pitt.

On their board, the ND fans call BC "Fredo".

 

[HtownOrange]

They'd get plenty enough academics with the rumored UVa, UNC, and Ga Tech. Miami is not Duke academically, but they're not half-bad. Duke does not bring eyeballs to TV screens. Duke has a small alumni base and few fans, while Miami has the same small alumni base and a heckUVa lot more fans in South Florida. They've already got football ditchdiggers.

..and much better recruiting grounds than a duplicate Duke in the NC recruiting grounds.

 

[HtownOrange]

If the B16 did expand that large, they either need to leave a team out (like Cal who is even worse than Duke), or add three more teams. If you need filler schools then Duke makes sense. It also would help entice UNC and to a lessor extent ND.

If the B1G is expanding big, they are going much bigger than 24, probably closer to 32 or 36. If they are going big, expect targets on both coasts.

32 and 36 make for nice numbers to make regional divisions, too.

Though I remain neutral on whether the B1G will or won't continue larger expansion plans, if they do at some point the conference becomes too unwieldy and cumbersome unless they are big enough to recreate some historic rivalries to counter all of the new forced "rivalries". Eg.: The historic B1G teams will want their old rivalries more often. The west coast teams will want some old rivalries (travel is less of an issue other than an extra hour or two in the air), PSU still wants more eastern rivalries and if the B1G is serious about UVA, UNC and GATech, they will want one or two "friends" to come along.