ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[kcsu]

The article is mostly the same internet garbage that has been floating around and has little substantive new information.

Some key take-aways, The buy out from the ACC is $120MM. However, the cost of buying out the GOR was set by the Big12 when OU and UT paid more than twice the revenue share/year to buy out one year when everyone benefitted from the buyout. It stands to reason that the ACC left-behinds will not get less per annum of buyout and will certainly demand much more.

Using 12 years and the present payout (2021 was the most recent payout data available) of $36.6MM/team.

Based on the OU/UT buyout at 2.1 factor (the low end of an expected ACC demand), $36.6MM is now $76.86MM per year of buyout. As this season cannot be avoided, there are 12 seasons in play, assuming an immediate change. The price is now $922.32MM plus the $120MM exit fee, or $1,042.32MM or $1.04332 BILLION. Who has that money? Plus the remaining ACC teams are likely to demand more. Even if the remaining ACC teams were stupid enough to agree to the annual payout, the cost to leave is $600MM/team.

Applying logic to the GOR dissolution, recall OU and UT could not find a way to leave several years early, and USC and UCLA simply decided to wait out the PAC12 deal, neither the SEC nor the B1G wanted to attack the the GOR, half the ACC schools have admittedly (based on the McMurphy tweet and the article) no one has figured a way out. Further, media rights tend to be locked tight, see every songwriter, screenwriter, etc. that sold their rights to their songs/stories and the publisher cashed in while the writer was stuck with the bad deal, the failed attempts to overturn the bad deals, and there is sufficient credence to the GOR is airtight argument than there is for an opportunity to dissolve the GOR.

Internet sports fans "lawyers" (used mockingly because everyone knows contracts are made to be broken!) discussing the legal issues have ignored the facts that the best lawyers in the country are working on this issue because it will be a gold mine and they cannot come up with a legal argument to defeat the GOR. (The GOR works as a liquidated damages clause, ensures the ACC owns the broadcast rights to each team's home games for the duration of the GOR, and ESPN has a big say in this matter)

Next, ESPN owns the ACCN and the SECN. not one prognosticator has addressed the basic issue that ESPN is allegedly going to give up properties for no reason and destroy a profitable revenue stream for the sake of enhancing one of its other properties.

And let's not forget that the SEC is a regional, VERY regional conference, Even the B1G lacks true national appeal as it goes coast to coast. No one in the south cares about B1G football and few people outside of the south east care about the SEC. Most college fans watch college sports for their team. Sure, we all watch a good game, but most are not going to devote all of their time for Minnesota v. Rutgers, Vandy v. anyone, or any other number of games that simply lack appeal.

Add to the above that no prognosticator has explained why ESPN would pull out all exposure in the northeast to the Fox Sports network, the primary competitor to ESPN. Forsaking SU, Pitt and BC leaves the heavily populated and projected to remain heavily populated northeast for no reason. Sure, the Big East is there, but they are a Fox owned property going forward. Yes, you can argue that football drives the bus, but hoops allows for double the ad revenue time than football. With the standard claim that football is 75% of a deal and hoops 25%, football must draw six fold the hoops revenue per ad, TV ratings don't support this argument. Thus, hoops has been underpaid for decades, there is money out there for hoops. (see also the B1G's new revenue is based more on hoops than football).

Then there is the problem that there are not enough CFB teams in the two-10-24 team superconferences to represent CFB fans nationwide, nor is there enough fodder for the superconference middle of the pack teams to look impressive (zero sum gain) and fandom will dwindle with the ratings. Does anyone believe Mississippi State, Ole Miss will garner enough wins to get to a bowl game with SEC and B1G games only? Thus, we know they need more teams than the 20-24 superconferences include. Forty to 48 teams is not sufficient. If this is a semi-pro league, they will not be able to play a lower division, nor would is be fair to play semi-pro money teams versus true school teams where academics remain important.

I remain a skeptic of the article and the people that hold to the logic without considering all angles. Dismissing ESPN's interest and Fox' interest and the fan's interest are dangerous assumptions. Assuming the SEC and the B1G hold all the cards is dangerous.

One more point, SU is a money maker and highly regarded for many more reasons that the simplified internet arguments, usually consisting of 2-5 cherry-picked matrices used to analyze teams and their "value". SU is more likely to be taken than left behind in an upper tier conference, especially if it goes beyond 20 teams for each of the supposed superconferences.

I cannot say the ACC will survive, but the current projections need a lot more pieces of the puzzle to fall into place than is happening right now. And I would not be surprised to see teh B1G dump Rutgers if they are stopping at 20 or 24. There simply is no value behind a punching bag game. Combine that with a school AD in such debt that B1G money cannot help.

Just another fan's opinion.

Excellent post. Thank you for outlining the salient points so well.

 

[Stern]

NIl will not matter to the TV execs is about eyeballs. VA UNC and FSU are the prize teams. None of the other teams with the exception of GT matter.

ok, we will see. Look at the money Miami has spent in NIL across the board in all sports and its only getting bigger. They are one of the big players in NIL in the country. The powers that be around the country see that and see a school willing to buy the best team possible. Hence, it is attractive.

We will revisit this in a year or two and see how it shakes out.

The world is changing so fast in college sports, what TV execs and conferences are looking for isn't what it was even two years ago.

 

[Stern]

What about NC State aka Rutgers south

no idea, probably location and maybe they are tied to UNC somehow with some back channel deal

 

[Stern]

Honestly there's almost zero the admin can do, the die was cast years ago. SU is in no way ever going to be on the radar for an SEC invite. The only realistic option is the B10 and were way down the list of schools the B10 is interested in. If it was 1996 maybe, but its 2023.

This is the mindset that has killed SU for 2 decades. Putting their arms in the air and saying "Nothing we can do'. No, there is...have some standards for the football program and build it up so its an attractive property that others want.

It's really not that hard.

 

[David332]

So worst case we probably wind up in a third best conference with no chance at a NC.. okay. We would still be playing for bowl games every year and struggling to make the conference championship. Would it really even be any different than now?

Having two semipro conferences might actually wind up being a good thing; let the rest of college football return to stability.

 

[Hoo's That]

The article is mostly the same internet garbage that has been floating around and has little substantive new information.

Some key take-aways, The buy out from the ACC is $120MM. However, the cost of buying out the GOR was set by the Big12 when OU and UT paid more than twice the revenue share/year to buy out one year when everyone benefitted from the buyout. It stands to reason that the ACC left-behinds will not get less per annum of buyout and will certainly demand much more.

Using 12 years and the present payout (2021 was the most recent payout data available) of $36.6MM/team.

Based on the OU/UT buyout at 2.1 factor (the low end of an expected ACC demand), $36.6MM is now $76.86MM per year of buyout. As this season cannot be avoided, there are 12 seasons in play, assuming an immediate change. The price is now $922.32MM plus the $120MM exit fee, or $1,042.32MM or $1.04332 BILLION. Who has that money? Plus the remaining ACC teams are likely to demand more. Even if the remaining ACC teams were stupid enough to agree to the annual payout, the cost to leave is $600MM/team.

Applying logic to the GOR dissolution, recall OU and UT could not find a way to leave several years early, and USC and UCLA simply decided to wait out the PAC12 deal, neither the SEC nor the B1G wanted to attack the the GOR, half the ACC schools have admittedly (based on the McMurphy tweet and the article) no one has figured a way out. Further, media rights tend to be locked tight, see every songwriter, screenwriter, etc. that sold their rights to their songs/stories and the publisher cashed in while the writer was stuck with the bad deal, the failed attempts to overturn the bad deals, and there is sufficient credence to the GOR is airtight argument than there is for an opportunity to dissolve the GOR.

Internet sports fans "lawyers" (used mockingly because everyone knows contracts are made to be broken!) discussing the legal issues have ignored the facts that the best lawyers in the country are working on this issue because it will be a gold mine and they cannot come up with a legal argument to defeat the GOR. (The GOR works as a liquidated damages clause, ensures the ACC owns the broadcast rights to each team's home games for the duration of the GOR, and ESPN has a big say in this matter)

Next, ESPN owns the ACCN and the SECN. not one prognosticator has addressed the basic issue that ESPN is allegedly going to give up properties for no reason and destroy a profitable revenue stream for the sake of enhancing one of its other properties.

And let's not forget that the SEC is a regional, VERY regional conference, Even the B1G lacks true national appeal as it goes coast to coast. No one in the south cares about B1G football and few people outside of the south east care about the SEC. Most college fans watch college sports for their team. Sure, we all watch a good game, but most are not going to devote all of their time for Minnesota v. Rutgers, Vandy v. anyone, or any other number of games that simply lack appeal.

Add to the above that no prognosticator has explained why ESPN would pull out all exposure in the northeast to the Fox Sports network, the primary competitor to ESPN. Forsaking SU, Pitt and BC leaves the heavily populated and projected to remain heavily populated northeast for no reason. Sure, the Big East is there, but they are a Fox owned property going forward. Yes, you can argue that football drives the bus, but hoops allows for double the ad revenue time than football. With the standard claim that football is 75% of a deal and hoops 25%, football must draw six fold the hoops revenue per ad, TV ratings don't support this argument. Thus, hoops has been underpaid for decades, there is money out there for hoops. (see also the B1G's new revenue is based more on hoops than football).

Then there is the problem that there are not enough CFB teams in the two-10-24 team superconferences to represent CFB fans nationwide, nor is there enough fodder for the superconference middle of the pack teams to look impressive (zero sum gain) and fandom will dwindle with the ratings. Does anyone believe Mississippi State, Ole Miss will garner enough wins to get to a bowl game with SEC and B1G games only? Thus, we know they need more teams than the 20-24 superconferences include. Forty to 48 teams is not sufficient. If this is a semi-pro league, they will not be able to play a lower division, nor would is be fair to play semi-pro money teams versus true school teams where academics remain important.

I remain a skeptic of the article and the people that hold to the logic without considering all angles. Dismissing ESPN's interest and Fox' interest and the fan's interest are dangerous assumptions. Assuming the SEC and the B1G hold all the cards is dangerous.

One more point, SU is a money maker and highly regarded for many more reasons that the simplified internet arguments, usually consisting of 2-5 cherry-picked matrices used to analyze teams and their "value". SU is more likely to be taken than left behind in an upper tier conference, especially if it goes beyond 20 teams for each of the supposed superconferences.

I cannot say the ACC will survive, but the current projections need a lot more pieces of the puzzle to fall into place than is happening right now. And I would not be surprised to see teh B1G dump Rutgers if they are stopping at 20 or 24. There simply is no value behind a punching bag game. Combine that with a school AD in such debt that B1G money cannot help.

Just another fan's opinion.

Superb post. The 4 schools that left GOR conferences had access to a lot of high-powered (and -priced) lawyers but none chose to challenge GOR in court. That should tell people something if they're willing to listen. The only way schools get out of the ACC GOR before 2036 is for the ACC to vote to dissolve.

 

[Hoo's That]

no idea, probably location and maybe they are tied to UNC somehow with some back channel deal

Unless the NC legislature/governor step in, UNC would leave NC State behind in a heartbeat.

 

[JeremyCuse]

This is the mindset that has killed SU for 2 decades. Putting their arms in the air and saying "Nothing we can do'. No, there is...have some standards for the football program and build it up so its an attractive property that others want.

It's really not that hard.

Again the time to do that was 10-15-20 years ago when that actually could happen. With NIL and the arms race even if SU went all in (there not going to) they still don't have the resources needed to take the program where they would need to go. B10 and SEC teams are already getting 30+ mill more a year and have more NIL money. SU's a private school there's no state slush fund to tap into.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

This is the mindset that has killed SU for 2 decades. Putting their arms in the air and saying "Nothing we can do'. No, there is...have some standards for the football program and build it up so its an attractive property that others want.

It's really not that hard.

isn't that easy either.

 

[Cusefan0307]

College Football administrators are doing a really good job of decreasing the amount of eyeballs that will watch their product.

The SEC thinks they are the NFL and they are not. Clemson and FSU fan followings will eventually drop if they go to the SEC and suck.

 

[Bayside44]

This is the mindset that has killed SU for 2 decades. Putting their arms in the air and saying "Nothing we can do'. No, there is...have some standards for the football program and build it up so its an attractive property that others want.

It's really not that hard.

In that time we changed conferences to play (and beat) national brands and have and will be dumping a quarter of a billion dollars into facilities.

 

[SU94]

Does anyone believe Mississippi State, Ole Miss will garner enough wins to get to a bowl game with SEC and B1G games only? Thus, we know they need more teams than the 20-24 superconferences include. Forty to 48 teams is not sufficient. If this is a semi-pro league, they will not be able to play a lower division, nor would is be fair to play semi-pro money teams versus true school teams where academics remain important.

Lotta solid truth in this whole post, almost none of which the CFB media pushes back upon. All these writers simply talk to the same 2-3 ADs in the B1G and SEC, who tell them, "hey, if you don't believe me, call my buddy at this school, he know what happening too."

Well, no craP, you two are colluding together, playing your fun game of shadow commissioner because they did not get chosen to replace Kevin Warren and want their $150,000 attendance bonus to kick in in 2025! None of the talented CFB writers gets anything (or precious little) from an actual GOR lawyer, or an ESPN source, or cites a source from a school (like SU/Pitt/BC for instance or Iowa State, Stanford, etc.) that knows things are a little more secure/steady than are portrayed. At least for the next 6-8 years. I mean, you can mark your calendar for this time next year, first 10-15 days of May, someone is going to write that the GOR could be broken and that the B1G is going to invited UNC, Duke and the Carolina Panthers to the B1G because they want to migrate south like the rest of the nation. Oh, and that the B1G has such great admiration for Georgia Tech's academics and the notion of planting a flag in the heart of the South gets them aroused. (Stankey assumes the fatal position -- NOT!).

Think about it, ... all of a sudden Auburn is going to play 12-13 straight tough/legit superconference games every year? Right now, many SEC teams (and a few B1G too) do anything they can to work around the "must play at least one P5 game annually" rule. They all swap Charleston Southern around annually like a tray of Hors d'Oeuvres so that they are well rested heading into rivalry week at the end of November. Hell, the B1G broke off its scheduling alliance with the Pac 12 a few years back because it was too hard. And now they want to mimic the gauntlet that is the AFC North? Would that not risk their precious job security?

And, because we are collectively better than this on the Syracuse board, ... can we please, please(!) stop with the Duke-to-the-Ivy League drivel, where their lax fits so well and the football program can complete? I mean, talk about amateur hour. #BeBetterIfYou'reOrange

 

[CousCuse]

Superb post. The 4 schools that left GOR conferences had access to a lot of high-powered (and -priced) lawyers but none chose to challenge GOR in court. That should tell people something if they're willing to listen. The only way schools get out of the ACC GOR before 2036 is for the ACC to vote to dissolve.

A court is not going to rule for a school that has 1 or 2 years left in a GOR. If a school argues that staying in a GOR for another 12 years is going to do it serious harm, the court may well consider that.

 

[Cusefan0307]

It's conference realignment that is going to kill college sports. Not NIL or the transfer portal.

 

[Newhouser]

The other thing that is interesting about all these plans is that the players making the noise now may not be players in 2 or 3 years. Pre Saban, Bama was not dominating, nor was Clemson pre-Dabo. Florida since Spurrier left (outside of Urban) has not been a player, FSU hasn't really replaced Bowden dominance. Coaching matters in college football more than any other sport in my opinion, and no school is immune from a bad hire, and a quick descent from dominance.

 

[Newhouser]

It's conference realignment that is going to kill college sports. Not NIL or the transfer portal.

It won't kill college sports - it will kill college sports for some schools in some sports.

 

[Cusefan0307]

It won't kill college sports - it will kill college sports for some schools in some sports.

The eyes on college football will decrease considerably by eliminating the competition. I already stopped watching 10 years ago outside of Syracuse. No one in the Northeast or Northwest will care about watching it. Eventually ratings will decrease.

 

[Scooch]

It won't kill college sports - it will kill college sports for some schools in some sports.

Bingo. College football has never been more popular. It sucks for us to be an outsider for that, but it doesn't change the reality.

American sports is increasingly about big events. The SEC and B1G are creating big events. Ones that have national appeal.

 

[Dcuse]

The eyes on college football will decrease considerably by eliminating the competition. I already stopped watching 10 years ago outside of Syracuse. No one in the Northeast or Northwest will care about watching it. Eventually ratings will decrease.

Totally agree with this. It may not kill it all together but in totality College sports will be on the downslide. The foresight on this by supposed leaders is at a moron level. I'm actually rooting for a complete, total failure for all college sports with the changes made.

 

[Dcuse]

Bingo. College football has never been more popular. It sucks for us to be an outsider for that, but it doesn't change the reality.

American sports is increasingly about big events. The SEC and B1G are creating big events. Ones that have national appeal.

How much money you got?

 

[Bayside44]

Bingo. College football has never been more popular. It sucks for us to be an outsider for that, but it doesn't change the reality.

American sports is increasingly about big events. The SEC and B1G are creating big events. Ones that have national appeal.

Yeah - like the NFL, the TV is on with the game because it's on with the game.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Bingo. College football has never been more popular. It sucks for us to be an outsider for that, but it doesn't change the reality.

American sports is increasingly about big events. The SEC and B1G are creating big events. Ones that have national appeal.

Not sure where you're getting your numbers, but football attendance has been declining for most of the past decade. The conference title games and National Title games also had declines this year.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

The other thing that is interesting about all these plans is that the players making the noise now may not be players in 2 or 3 years. Pre Saban, Bama was not dominating, nor was Clemson pre-Dabo. Florida since Spurrier left (outside of Urban) has not been a player, FSU hasn't really replaced Bowden dominance. Coaching matters in college football more than any other sport in my opinion, and no school is immune from a bad hire, and a quick descent from dominance.

Coaching does matter. Which is why the B16 and SEC are at a huge advantage. They can go pick off the best coaches from the ACC, B12, P12, and even Notre Dame. Then they have the money to buyout the bad hires.

I think the SEC will end up being a revolving door. A school will hire a HC have a few good seasons, then a few decent seasons and move on to the next guy (see LSU or Auburn). It will be like soccer managers in Europe. I don't see many HCs being at a spot long term, except for the very few elite guys (like Kirby).

 

[FrancoPizza]

Think about it, ... all of a sudden Auburn is going to play 12-13 straight tough/legit superconference games every year?

What's to stop the SEC from creating a bunch of punching bag teams that have little to no affiliation with a college? If it's no longer about academics and it's semipro, who says they don't round up a bunch of middle aged men at the Y and pay them handsomely to get killed in an annual game?

There would be a line out the door of out-of-work and out-of-shape men begging for a chance to be on one of these punching bag teams. The media attention alone on these "Rocky Balboas" would generate a revenue stream.

 

[oldpinepoint]

Again the time to do that was 10-15-20 years ago when that actually could happen. With NIL and the arms race even if SU went all in (there not going to) they still don't have the resources needed to take the program where they would need to go. B10 and SEC teams are already getting 30+ mill more a year and have more NIL money. SU's a private school there's no state slush fund to tap into.

I blame Buzz, JC, Nancy and DG