ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[kcsu]

If UNC goes to the SEC, one of the Virginias will go with them.

It will be 10 years at a minimum

 

[Hoo's That]

It will be 10 years at a minimum

Agree. No one is going anywhere before the 2035 expiration of the GoR.

 

[djorange1989]

Agree. No one is going anywhere before the 2035 expiration of the GoR.

Yep not happening earlier or it would have happened by now

 

[Toga]

If you google this, there are some people saying dissolution requires a 3/4 member approval and others a simple majority.

I would think the people saying it requires a 3/4 majority are correct, given we know this is what is required to approve expansion in the conference. Syracuse fans know this better than anyone.

It would make no sense to set things up so it is far easier to dissolve the conference than to add a member.

Yes it was definitely 3/4 vote to add a team. Would be hard to imagine anything less for a dissolution.

 

[ECE '76]

Indiana and Purdue play for the Old Oaken Bucket. Maryland and Rutgers play for the Old Porcelain Toilet

Ah yes the Old Porcelain Toilet... dredged from the Raritan River near Perth Amboy prior to the 1920 game. In 1925 it was decided to clean the prized trophy of coliform and fecal material, giving it the impressive patina it still shows today. After Rutgers' great victory in 1939, the team used it as a candy dish in the locker room until surrendering the trophy back to Maryland after the 1940 game. Yes, what a rich history. Nowadays, the winning school keeps the prized trophy in a vault-like display case made of thick bullet-proof glass surrounded by surveillance cameras, motion detectors, and elaborate alarm system. Both teams consider the rivalry their Super Bowl and their fans talk about the next meeting all year long.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

UNC would rather be the furthest team north in the SEC than the furthest team south in the B1G.

They should be terrified of their basketball program imploding in either league SEC hoops is very good top to bottom these days. Nebraska to the Big Ten is what Duke and UNC are looking at if they leave the ACC for hoops.

FB probably no change and they're the usual Mac Brown 7-5 team. Hire the wrong coach after him and you might go winless. I could see UVA being fine if they moved over to either and coming out way ahead of UNC. Remember what happened to BC athletics and VT when they moved conferences it worked out great for the best part of a decade and Miami was the big loser who's glory days ended for good immediately.

 

[CousCuse]

If UNC goes to the SEC, one of the Virginias will go with them.

Yes, hard to see where the people in North Carolina or Virginia would be real keen on their sports teams traveling north to cold and snow all fall and winter.

 

[Eric15]

Axis and Allies

My favorite board game of all-time!

 

[HouClone]

My favorite board game of all-time.

Yep. Russia needs to attack and win that first move or it's over for the Allies.

 

[Sherman20]

8 has been the most widely reported. My point is, what is the 8th school is pitt or Louisville and they go to the big 12? CUSE IS SCREWED!

Big 10 goes and gets UNC, Virginia, Miami and ND or Pitt/BC depending on if they can convince ND to join.

SEC gets FSU, VT, NCS and not so sure the 4th would be. I'm curious if they'd be interested in jumping up the east coast.

These are the best moves I can think of for the schools and conferences. Gets them in new states and like minded schools academically.

Lawyers will determine this fate depending on breaking the current contract ties.

I don’t know how many times this needs to be said. The Big 10 and SEC aren’t interested in expansion with schools like BC, Pitt, Louisville (laughable!), NC State or Va Tech. I think both conferences are content for now but none of those schools are in play if/when they do decide on expansion.

 

[Bayside44]

I don’t know how many times this needs to be said. The Big 10 and SEC aren’t interested in expansion with schools like BC, Pitt, Louisville (laughable!), NC State or Va Tech. I think both conferences are content for now but none of those schools are in play if/when they do decide on expansion.

The market place is so incredibly volatile. Outside scoring a UNC (with a UVa link) that's it. The TV game is in the beginings of a radical change, being "in" a state with a cable box doesn't matter.

 

[Cusefan69]

The market place is so incredibly volatile. Outside scoring a UNC (with a UVa link) that's it. The TV game is in the beginings of a radical change, being "in" a state with a cable box doesn't matter.

Yep and the coffers at ESPN and Fox are not unlimited either and I think there is going to be a bid in the future for the expanded college playoffs. I would wager during conference negotiations there are some exchanges framed by the conferences to get a sense of how much value the networks see in broader constructs. At some point the for the networks the incremental gain just won't be that much unless it's ND. ND like it or not the last material brand in the market that can significantly move the needle for a network and by all accounts they will remain independent. Especially since their new AD comes from NBC I believe.

 

[kcsu]

The market place is so incredibly volatile. Outside scoring a UNC (with a UVa link) that's it. The TV game is in the beginings of a radical change, being "in" a state with a cable box doesn't matter.

I dont know a person under the age of 30 that has cable

 

[Bryanw1995]

Jimbo might be the 1st or 2nd most over paid coach in college sports. Tied with Mel. I think he's a complete empty suit

Jimbo at least won a title in the past. Heck, 2.5 years ago he finished #4. Tucker has done NOTHING EVER. Jimbo also has one more title than Riley or Kelly, and has more top 5 finishes than any of the others. Jimbo's contract was extremely high when he signed it, but it wouldn't be bad by today's standards if he was able to duplicate his success from FSU at A&M. No, Jimbo's problem is that the game has changed, but he hasn't adapted with it. I hate Saban with a passion, but one thing I'll say for him is that he's been able to adapt with changes in the game over the decades. Apparently, that's one lesson that he taught to Kirby but not Jimbo.

 

[Bryanw1995]

Also very SEC…


They love fattening their records with home games against terrible programs that have no chance to win.

Yep, that's how LSU/Alabama/Georgia/etc keep winning titles. Easy non-conference schedules and then they just roll through all those easy conference games.

 

[Bryanw1995]

A number of college sports reporters have pointed out that any new additions to the ACC don’t necessarily have to net the conference a lot more money. They just need to be a net neutral. The point of expansion is to block the Big 12 from becoming the third best/highest revenue conference and to shore up basketball and football as best we can. This is what a number of administrators in the ACC have been arguing, including during the conference meetings, so it’s not me just saying this. We have to outflank the Big 12 and PAC 12.

The problem is that the Secret 7 can block any additions, regardless of how logical they may be. What's the price of their support? FREEDOM. A logical time to look towards is 2031 when the big 12 GoR is up, at that point it's possible to see a rearranging of the ACC, big 12 and SEC. We could look at 2, 4 or 6, depending upon what we think makes the most sense, and then the Big ACC will cement their place as a strong #3 Conference. It might be fun seeing how they decide where to put the Conference HQ.

 

[Bryanw1995]

Need to grab the only 2 players left on the east coast, USF and Uconn, and see if we can get UCF, and Cincinnati to pull a TCU, and join the ACC instead of the Big 12.
That would effectively make the ACC the 3rd league with a good shot at joining the Big 2.

You think that USF, UConn, UCF and Cincinnati would vault you up into P2 territory? How? Clemson and FSU are the only current ACC schools that would fit into the top 10 in the SEC right now, closer to 10 than 5 probably, and the 4 that you just listed aren't even strong-enough brands to garner an invite from the big 12. I mean no disrespect with this, but the ACC is currently fighting for 3rd, and, barring a huge change in the value of basketball between now and 2036, that's as high as you'll be able to reach for the foreseeable future.

 

[Cusester]

Always fun to see a fan from another conference come here to say how easy it will be to break the GOR early. Sheesh.

 

[Bryanw1995]

The ACC already has enough representation in Florida. There is no reason to add UCF and USF. I would not mind adding UConn. I also think that Tulane would be an interesting addition, if for no other reason, fun road trips.

I would live to see a stronger Northeast presence, but there really are not that many attractive teams (I hated the hybrid concept in the Big East and would be disappointed if the ACC adopted basketball only schools). The real problem is that there is not many, if any, attractive options. Current FBS schools in the Northeast not in the ACC:

Maine - None;
New Hampshire - None;
Vermont - None;
Massachusetts - UMass (Indy)
Rhode Island - None;
Connecticut - UConn (Indy);
New York - Army (Indy), SUNY-Buffalo (MAC);
New Jersey - Rutgers (B1G); and
Pennsylvania - Penn State (B1G), Temple (AAC).

I just do not see how Army (or Navy) would really move the needle athletically for the ACC. Out of Buffalo, Temple, or UConn, UConn really is the only school of the three that has some national brand recognition, albeit for basketball.

Adding Cincy and BYU make sense for XII. I am less sold on adding another Texas school in Houston or UCF. But even those schools might make sense. Its discussions with UConn and Gonzaga and whoever looks desperate.

I have no love at all for the big 12, but I think that they made 4 really good moves with their OUT replacements. Their media rights deal from last fall speaks for itself, it's looking better every day in fact.

 

[Bryanw1995]

Alabama is scared to death. You see, he is doing the very easy thing now. Talking. They will never win a football championship at UConn. They will be lucky to have a winning season or two. I do wonder if they are stupid enough to join the B12 if they are invited though.

Alabama? They're the 2nd best team in the SEC over the past 5 years. Saban might win another title, but if so then he'll have to do so by actually out-coaching instead of out-talenting his competition. As Miami found out 20 years ago, it's a whole lot harder to win when you're not the only one doling out big bags of money, and it's even legal now. The Alabama furniture cartel can't even keep up with Kirby Smart, how are they going to outspend UT and their oil money?

 

[Bryanw1995]

Always fun to see a fan from another conference come here to say how easy it will be to break the GOR early. Sheesh.

If you're responding to my above post, I do not think it's likely at all that your GoR gets "broken". The very concept of it flies in the face of hundreds of years of case law, and also it would require some or all of the Secret 7 to mortgage everybody's future by trying to kill GoRs everywhere. How much less would the next SEC and B1G contracts be if the Secret 7 somehow killed off the use of GoRs everywhere? 25%? I'd bet that we would be super appreciative of that and would be very enthusiastic about inviting those schools to join our suddenly much less valuable conferences.

Even if, somehow, the Secret 7 managed to risk it all and succeed, all they'd have earned themselves would be new, smaller conference that paid out less than their old conference b/c nobody could sign a GoR at all.

The only way to "break" the GoR is for all parties to decide that the alternative is better than the old GoR. Boston College. FSU. Wake Forest. Clemson, Syracuse, etc. And that's just the ACC. ESPN also needs to be on board. And the SEC has to actually want some or many of the Secret 7 (this is assuming that ESPN wouldn't be on board for this if any of the schools wanted to join the B1G). I think that all of that is a tall ask, but as we get closer to 2036 and schools start thinking more about their future, a combined big 12/ACC (or Pac/big12/ACC, whatever) could look more appealing to the left-behinds than 5 years of glory followed by an eternity of the new AAC.

 

[Bryanw1995]

They should expand and add SDSU, Fresno State, Nevada, and UNLV. Is that so crazy?

SDSU is the only one that brings even close to the needed $$. Fresno is a hard NO due to their academics.

 

[HtownOrange]

The problem is that the Secret 7 can block any additions, regardless of how logical they may be. What's the price of their support? FREEDOM. A logical time to look towards is 2031 when the big 12 GoR is up, at that point it's possible to see a rearranging of the ACC, big 12 and SEC. We could look at 2, 4 or 6, depending upon what we think makes the most sense, and then the Big ACC will cement their place as a strong #3 Conference. It might be fun seeing how they decide where to put the Conference HQ.

There won't be any additions, ESP will not agree to them nor will most, if not all, ACC schools. Let posters have their fun. However, the GOR is too expensive to buyout and there is no incentive for ESPN to let any of the ACC schools go. This has been discussed on this site and at present it will be in excess of a billion dollars to break the GOR, assuming ESPN agrees to allow it.

Even in 2031, there will be too many years left for schools to buy out the GOR. And yet, ESPN will still have no interest in allowing the ACC to collapse. It is more likely that ESPN will be thinking of merging the SEC and ACC than to breaking up the ACC and letting schools go to the B1G and giving up the northeast completely, the markets are too valuable to have no ESPN footprint. As it is the B1G and Big East belong to Fox covering the two profitable sports. It is bad business to simply give a competitor profit generating properties.

Further, no talking heads have done basic math, though ESPN, Fox, and the conferences have. The SEC will have several of big name schools becoming middle of the pack and many middle of the pack fall to losing records, even when they have a 4-game OOC schedule. Saban is not a fool, he knows this, as do the SEC voters, which explains his adamant argument for 4 OOC games in lieu of three. The one extra OOC game provides a little breathing room to prop up a couple more teams. Conference play is a zero sum game, and inflation of records for the middle and bottom must come from outside the conference.

Before arguing with me, do the math and present it here. There is no mathematical possibility that Bama, LSU, UGA, UT, TAMU, OU, UF, Auburn, and Tennessee in which they are all top 25. In fact, at least one will become a loser each year, probably more than one. Nor will all of the former middle of the pack be happy being perpetual losers. No one will care that Ole Miss, MState, USC, Arkansas, Mizzou (east, not Rutgers - inside joke, a Rutgers fan once claimed Rutgers was USC on Saturdays) is in the SEC when they can't win 6 games annually. Only UK and Vandy will remain unscathed because they historically are the SEC bottom feeders of the SEC.

The same is true in the B1G, just different names. Both conferences will either have to split for the biggest names to have annual success that they are accustomed to, or more likely, both expand to include more middle of the pack and a couple bottom feeders to prop up the biggest names.

Again, before you whine and complain in an attempt to convince us that the SEC is all that and a bag of chips, do the math, show your work and prove absolutely that your response will work. As it stands, it won't. By 2031, everyone will understand this point.

 

[Bryanw1995]

Big 10 goes and gets UNC, Virginia, Miami and ND or Pitt/BC depending on if they can convince ND to join.

SEC gets FSU, VT, NCS and not so sure the 4th would be. I'm curious if they'd be interested in jumping up the east coast.

These are the best moves I can think of for the schools and conferences. Gets them in new states and like minded schools academically.

Lawyers will determine this fate depending on breaking the current contract ties.

If this was actually Risk then those moves would make sense. However, in the real world, we have no interest in a distant 2nd or 3rd best school in North Carolina, and we'd take Clemson over anyone other than FSU and UNC. Clemson brings big ratings and they actually look like an SEC stadium on game day. Nobody else outside of the P2, even FSU, comes close.

 

[dasher]

Alabama? They're the 2nd best team in the SEC over the past 5 years. Saban might win another title, but if so then he'll have to do so by actually out-coaching instead of out-talenting his competition. As Miami found out 20 years ago, it's a whole lot harder to win when you're not the only one doling out big bags of money, and it's even legal now. The Alabama furniture cartel can't even keep up with Kirby Smart, how are they going to outspend UT and their oil money?

Read my post again. I was talking about UConn. And it was what we call sarcasm. I think everyone but you understood that.