I do think there is a correlation between home attendance and football value. I think that conferences can look at that and determine how big and how passionate your following is.
I took everyone's avg over the last 4 real years, meaning 2018-2022 and not including 2020.
>100k per game
3 B16
1 SEC
The B16 has the top 3 schools but the SEC has NINE of the next 10.
>90k
5 SEC
>80k
3 SEC
1 ACC
1 B16
The B16 had only one of the last 12 (#4 through #15).
>70k
1 B16
1 Indy
1 SEC
>60k
2 ACC
2 B16
1 P10
1 SEC
The P10 finally shows up, but the B12 is still absent. Every B12 school was under 59k. Surprised that VA Tech was this high.
>50k
5 B12
4 SEC
2 ACC
2 B16
1 P10
The P10 only has 2 above 50k. The B16 surprisingly has only 9 of 16 above 50k. So nearly half the conference is under. The SEC has 15 of 16 above 51,500.
>40k
5 ACC
5 P10
4 B12
4 B16
UCLA was surprisingly in this bracket. They are lucky USC allowed them to tag along. The B16 still has 3 teams under 40k, although every school is above 35k.
>30k
4 AAC
3 B16
3 MWC
2 ACC
2 P10
1 B12
No G5 school is above 36k and ECU is the only G5 school above 34k. There is no one really worth adding. People mention San Diego State to the P10, but they would be next to last in the P10. Is that worth adding? We joke about Rutgers but Maryland is really the worse add. They averaged just under 100 more people than little old Northwestern, just barely escaping last place.
<30k
1 P10
1 SEC
2 ACC
2 B12
+ rest of the G5s
The only P5 under 25k was Duke. There 2021 was a huge outlier though, not sure why. Even dropping that season they are still dead last. We joke about Wake but Duke is even worse. Houston is last in the B12, even behind Kansas. I am sure they will get a big bump, but they will still be small. I am sure that MACtion hurts attendance but even so the highest MAC team is under 20k. UMass and Northern Illinois (surprisingly since decent program) are the only under 10k teams.
AVG by conference
SEC 75,932
B16 63,431 (a 12,501 difference)
ACC 47,004
B12 45,756
P10 43,579
Compared to the B12 and P10, the ACC has more fans, better brands, better markets, and the advantage of being in the East.
For the SEC...
P3 schools above their average: Clemson
Everyone else, including Notre Dame, would lower the SEC avg.
P3 schools in top 75% of the SEC...
ACC: Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State
B12: Iowa State, BYU
P12: Washington
Outside of those ACC schools I have a hard time seeing SEC interest. Maybe BYU. The SEC might just stay at 16 or at best add 2-4 of those ACC schools to get to 18 or 20.
Based on the above I think the SEC will be:
Oklahoma, Texas, A&M, Mizzou, Arkansas
LSU, Ole Miss, Miss State, Bama, Auburn
Kentucky, Tennessee, Vandy, UGA, Florida
FSU, Clemson, South Carolina, NC State, VA Tech
For the B16...
P3 schools above their average: Clemson, Notre Dame, Washington
Everyone else would lower the avg.
P3 schools in top 75% of the B16...
ACC: Clemson, FSU, VA Tech, NC State, Miami, UNC, Louisville, Pitt
I think Miami and UNC eventually end up in the B16. Outside shot for FSU or Clemson. Not on this list, I think GA Tech (for recruiting), and UVA (to entice UNC) will go as well.
B12: Iowa State, BYU, Texas Tech, Okie State, West Virginia, Kansas State, Baylor
I can't see any of these schools being on the B16's radar. The B16 has looked into Kansas before. Given their BBall and the KC market they seem worthy of a look, but how do you ignore the fact that they avg over 5500 less than the #16 team in the B16?
P12: Washington, Oregon, Utah, Arizona State, Colorado
I think Washington gets a B16 invite. I think Utah and Colorado are long shots at best. Arizona State would be interesting. I think Oregon only gets in as a +1. Not on this list is Stanford and Cal. I do think one of them will get into the B16. Stanford has a great athletics department but it is a smaller school and averages 5k less than Cal. the again they could help entice ND. I would chose Stanford, but Cal > Stanford is possible. Can't see both going.
Based on the above i think the B16 goes to 24 by adding teams in the West and Southeast.
Washington, Stanford, USC, UCLA
Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Illinois
Penn State, Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana
Notre Dame, Rutgers, Maryland, and one of Pitt/SU/BC
UVA, UNC, GA Tech, Miami
For the ACC...
G5s for interest:
Temple is under 25k but would get a bump in the ACC. So they wouldn't be last. But still how can you justify adding an under 30k avg school?
Army and Navy are small but they do have national appeal, and both would be ahead of Wake and Duke.
Memphis is under 32k, and are a bit too West.
USF is the 3rd best G5 in attendance. But I only see them being added to replace FSU or Miami.
UConn is under 19k. How can you justify adding them? Even if they doubled their attendance they would still be 14th in the ACC.
B12s of interest:
WV is above the ACC's avg. But how do you entice them to leave the B12? And will the ACC snob schools allow them?
UCF would lower the ACC avg, but IMO they are worth adding. But again how do you get them to leave?
Cincy would be well below the ACC avg. It would be hard to justify.
P10 for the ACC:
I think Washington State, Oregon State, Cal, and Arizona would only hurt the ACC. Stanford is the only poor attendance school the ACC should consider. The other 5 schools are all worthy. But what makes them go the the ACC and leave the rest behind?
P10 for the B12:
Colorado and Arizona are often rumored as B12 candidates. If both went to the B12 it would actually widen the gap between the ACC avg and the B12 avg.
For the P10...
SMU was mentioned as an expansion candidate, but how can you justify adding a school that avg'd less than 23k?